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Monday, December 15

AN EARLY LOOK AT CHRISTMAS WEEK.


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

This weekends storm is still in play but I'm growing more doubtful of its impact here on Sunday.  Could just be a squeaker moving quickly South of the area.  I do like our chances of a White Christmas though because of colder air along with a few quick moving systems delivering some lighter snows next week.

There may be a brief warm up early in the week before the cold arrives.  We'll watch!

19 comments:

  1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

    hhhnnnnnnggggg

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  2. CCCC please explain what these are be cause they never open for me?

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    Replies
    1. CPC graphics depicting elevated probabilities of near average temps and above average precip during Christmas week.

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  3. Okay thanks. What do you think about this talk about possible storms after next week for several weeks after?

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    Replies
    1. I haven't heard a single thing about "several weeks," but the thought of a more active (and potentially snowier) pattern after Christmas holds a lot of weight.

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  4. Unfortunately, after Christmas is the key thing to remember. Will we have a White Christmas?

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  5. GFS & Euro both latch onto a possible storm Christmas Eve & Day. If you buy into it, it'll be a white Christmas. I don't buy anything 1+ week out. But, it does keep me watching.

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. We can only hope and listen at this point. It's always so frustrating to see so much snow before Christmas only to have it melt away.

      Thanks for the update.
      Andy

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  6. Thanks for being common-sense, Stacey. Ch. 10 will be up in arms and jumping up and down about the possibility of snow.

    Everyone, just pray that the weather, even though it may be white, won't be stormy and bad. There are a lot of people who have to travel. Don't get me wrong, a white Christmas is great, but a stomy blizzardy Christmas is not.

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    Replies
    1. Ch 10 run over your dog? Why so much angst and why watch them if you get so tightened up over it?

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    2. Agree with you on having a white Christmas, but not a Winter Storm one. I have family who are traveling, and this has been a tough year for some -- so to not have everyone together due to weather would be sad.

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  7. I hate winter rain!

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  8. Snowpack is going away quickly.

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  9. All quiet in the weather world for the next 10-14 days. It may pick-up after the new year. Models showing warm air around Christmas time.

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  10. I'm ready to stick a fork in the weekend storm. The theme for several run cycles has been a weak, disorganized system sliding eastward, so the odds of anything significant are just about nil. The remaining unphased or slightly phased northern stream energy might become a relatively minor point of interest however.

    The NWS brought up the Christmas storm in their discussion today, but for some reason framed it as a coastal with possible rain showers. I don't know what they looked at to come to that conclusion, because if it did end up being a coastal then 850 temps would be cold enough for frozen precip rather than liquid. But I digress...there seems to be convergence upon some sort of vigorous system for either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. The Euro tracks it up to the Ohio River valley and then slides it ENE off the northern Mid Atlantic coast, while the GFS and GGEM send it up along the coast. The parallel GFS has been insistent upon shooting a hellaciously strong system up to the Great Lakes and then sliding it eastward, which I'm not entirely sold on as a plausible scenario. In any event it will get cold enough behind the system for wraparound snow to occur, possibly hybrid synoptic/lake effect. There are also fresh hints of another system following close behind. So the theme remains the same as it was yesterday: the pattern turns colder and stormier by the middle of next week and lasts through the rest of the month.

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  11. The pattern is re-loading as all the energy slamming the west coast will eventually make its way east. There will be at least 2 storms to deal with next week and as CCCC alluded to earlier, the pattern will remain active for the foreseeable future...

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  12. KW keeps talking about a Christmas Eve day snowstorm for us- Potential.

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