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Saturday, December 13

Unsettled But No Major Storm Systems Imminent

The major winter storm that dropped well over a foot of snow across much of the area last week continues to push away from the northeast and weaken leaving the area in a fairly quiet weather pattern.

As warm air continues to move in aloft from the southwest this weekend, this is creating an inversion across western New York, trapping a layer of cool, moist air at the surface. This is why we've been stuck in this gloomy weather pattern now for the past few days.

Early next week, a new area of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and cross through the Great Plains. As this next storm system approaches western New York, a southerly flow of mild air will overspread the region helping to scour out this pesky inversion that we have in place now.

As this milder air spreads north, so will the moisture and showers will quickly start to develop by Tuesday morning. As the front and low pressure system to the west approach Tuesday afternoon, this will cause more widespread rain to develop.



Once the cold front sweeps through on Wednesday, any rain showers will change to snow as colder air moves in once again. Right now, this does not look like a significant storm and as it looks right now, most places will just see passing snow showers midweek.


As we look down the road toward Christmas week, long range forecast models point toward a more active weather pattern developing which could mean colder air and more widespread snow. Stay tuned!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

13 comments:

  1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 14, 2014 at 7:51 AM

    This is a CLASSIC weak El Nino December, isn't it?…relatively mild, though close to average…a zonal flow 80% of the time (which equates to 35 F and lots of cloud cover)…but the occasional burst of cold, but not a strong enough El Nino to disrupt snow and storm production when other factors overwhelm it…

    From a longer range perspective, this winter SO FAR is falling completely in line with the consensus predictions made earlier in the fall.

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  2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 14, 2014 at 8:38 PM

    Ummm…hello? (*echoing)

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    Replies
    1. They'll be back when the pattern gets more interesting.

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  3. I know it is early but that storm around Christmas Eve looks to go west of us which is not good. After it departs cold air will flood in with lake effect in local areas. White Christmas still up in the air.

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  4. The above comment was NOT me. It is the imposter Snowdog again.

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  5. And with the start of the work week comes yet another installment of Model Mayhem. For early next week we have anything from zero storm whatsoever to an amplified Miller B running up the coast. Even the typically reliable Euro has been waffling back and forth between ideas, although it has consistently produced a storm. I think the no-storm scenario depicted in the GGEM can be safely ruled out at this point given that fact. Meanwhile the GFS is doing its usual GFS idiot dance and producing weaker solutions, while its parallel counterpart has checked in with a track hugging the coastline. If I were to speculate on the final outcome it would be a split between the 12z parallel GFS and the 00z Euro, with a primary low center moving up into Tennessee before transferring to a secondary in the Carolinas and heading NE over the ocean. Not quite a non-starter for us, but I'm feeling pretty sketchy about this being a WNY jackpot system right now. Currently leaning towards more of a moderate snowfall if we are indeed destined to feel any effects.

    The time period near and after Christmas could see a continuation of interesting storm potentials if the latest ensemble runs are to be believed. It would seem that a ridge will pump in the vicinity of the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor a trough axis near the Rockies and a seasonably cold temperature regime for us while the subtropical jet remains active. The ensembles have been consistent regarding a pronounced decline of the NAO towards neutral or slightly negative by the end of the month while the PNA remains positive. The most recent run shows the AO dropping like a rock into negative territory, but there has been zero consistency whatsoever so I will hold off on any speculation there. If the latest Euro monthly is to be believed then the hammer will fully drop shortly after New Years Day, following a strong Great Lakes system as indicated by the BSR. Tenuously extrapolating the consistent NAO trend into early January, and combining it with the aforementioned Euro weekly and BSR indicated system leads me to believe that an extended NW flow lake effect regime may develop during that time, perhaps not too dissimilar to either of two such occurences in December 2010.

    To quote a phrase employed frequently by the NWS Buffalo office: "stay tuned..."

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    Replies
    1. I said "euro monthly" when I meant "euro weekly."

      ugh

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    2. Will ride the BSR like a pony as it delivered the goods last time.

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    3. I think it would be cool if "GFS idiot dance" was common parlance among meteorologists.

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  6. There will a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 45 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  7. The EGR and the EFR and the QRS and the ABC have all come together to report that it will snow and be cold this year. Ya think? -its NY.Would you expect balmy tropical weather. Watch out the window, if it is snowing get excited, if its not stay tuned,

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    Replies
    1. There have been years that it didn't get cold and snowy. And what are we to do on a weather blog if not talk about weather? Go Bills?

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