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Thursday, December 11

WHAT DID YOU GET?


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

Above are storm totals taken from NWS observers and reasonable reports from social media.  Highest tallies were observed in Eastern Monroe county and Wayne county.  Lighter numbers in the Genesee valley with many around 6" in Central and Southern Livingston county.

I see nothing on the horizon storm wise until around 5-6 days before Christmas with a storm out of the lower Mississippi valley.  Maybe that will be our white or wet Christmas.  Time will tell!

16 comments:

  1. Thanks Scott! The frequent updates have been great.

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  2. Confidence growing in earlier ideas of bitter cold XMas-New Year's & beyond. Pattern increases chance of white XMas ROC but not a certainty. KW

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  3. Heard we should look for middle of next week as possible another Winter Storm. What are folks seeing.

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  4. Whoops...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121212/ecmwf_T850_eus_8.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121212/ecmwf_T850_eus_9.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121212/ecmwf_T850_eus_10.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121212/ecmwf_T850_eus_11.png

    Keep this general scenario of a Miller B type coastal transfer in mind going forward. For the record those are generally spread-the-wealth deals and frequently have good results in these parts, but as with anything they are never a guarantee. Obviously way too early for specifics beyond a simple "keep it in mind for now."

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  5. hmm... I like those maps and hope it comes true. A frequent Christmas Wx frustration is getting snow like we just got only to have it melt before Christmas and then end up with a green Christmas. It definitely seems the forecasted warm up for Sunday and early next week has cooled a fair amount, which is good for keeping snow pack.

    On another topic, anyone have a good source for daily snowfall averages and cumulative month to date?

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Hard to believe that even last winter, with all of its constant snowiness and frigidity, was rescued from the jaws of a green Christmas at the last possible moment. Those big warmups mere days before Christmas seem to happen pretty reliably during otherwise cold Decembers.

      I just use the NWS Buffalo climate page for all daily/monthly snowfall information, their data is very comprehensive.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 14, 2014 at 7:43 AM

      I hear ya. I have noticed that last winter is taking on a historical personality that is not truly accurate. Sure, it was a long, cold winter, but it also was a winter that brought us fairly extended warm-ups at least four times. We had three storms in December, all three 10"+ events, but that snow was gone by the second week of January! I think the lore of 2013-14 winter is erasing the fact that was spent ten days in the 40s and 50s in the middle of January! Then, we got rain and warmth in the 40s for two or three days in February. Granted, it was cold and snowy in between those stretches, and winter hung around well in March (including a record low of -9 F) but last winter was not what everyone seems to be shaping it into. The winter of 02-03 was just as cold as the coldest stretches last winter, without the warm-ups! 2010-11 was also a consistently, cold snowy winter with only two warm-ups - one around New Years and one in late February that came and went within 36 hours. That winter did end about two weeks earlier than 02-03 and last winter, though.

      Kinda makes me wonder what truly happened in some of those famed winters in the past … were they really that incredible, or were they MOSTLY noteworthy and people's recollections somewhat filled in the gaps of what really happened in those seasons...

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  6. goldensnowball.com

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  7. Thanks for the data sources. I already used the NWS climate page, but had trouble finding "average to date" but the Goldensnowball site does provide that.

    I'm encouraged with the data. While a snowy November is not strongly correlated with an above average winter, December is. We are off to a good start for December. Lets hope it keeps going.

    Andy
    Andy

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  8. Is the storm they are talking about for next week not a big deal, just a little snow or mix depending on track? We r flying to NC on 12/22...is there any threat of anything big happening on models around that time that could mess with our flight?

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    Replies
    1. A bigger storm is a very valid possibility, especially given the amount of moisture any stronger system could bring. The BSR actually does argue for a stronger system.

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  9. Don't love snow so much now!

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    Replies
    1. No I still do o just don't want my flight cancelled, kids will be upset. I've never wished for travel to be halted or peopled plans ruined. I just like when it snows. I don't mind driving in it.

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  10. Models are repeatedly trying to suppress the system, which I believe is wrong. We won't have the sort of teleconnection arrangement that would support a system sliding eastward out to sea, plus the BSR would argue for a Miller B type storm. We'll see what transpires, but my advice would be to avoid the models until they've gotten a much better handle on things.

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  11. The system this week looks more like rain to me and then a changeover to snow. Next week and beyond looks to get quite active. Interesting times ahead.

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    Replies
    1. I'm not even remotely invested in this week's system beyond how it influences the real system of interest for the following week. Its strength and velocity will determine where the blocking high in Canada ends up, which affects the timing of any coastal transfer scenario.

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