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Monday, December 29

OLD MAN WINTER RETURNS TO FINISH 2014

After that one major storm that dumped heavy snow on the region several weeks ago, the weather pattern since has been downright boring for weather nerds and snow lovers.

Sure, we've seen some chilly air from time to time but overall, temperatures have been above average. Because of this, most of the precipitation that we've seen during the month of December has been in the form of rain. But all of this is about to change....

Arctic air is pouring south as we speak over the northern plains and some of this air is already making its way into the northeast.

As we move into the last few days of 2014, high temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 20s with overnight lows in the teens. Along with the cold, lake effect snow showers will develop and stick around for several days. Some localized areas could pick up a couple inches of snow but most of us will just see some passing flakes.

By the weekend, the forecast becomes more uncertain as forecast models diverge on the overall weather pattern.

For example, the GFS model develops strong low pressure over the Ohio Valley and moves it northeast, staying west of western New York. This solution would bring us a surge of milder air along with widespread rain over the weekend. As colder air wraps around the low, rain would eventually change to snow.



The ECMWF model shows a completely different solution moving this same storm system through the Mid Atlantic and well south of western New York. This model shows a separate northern branch system moving in bringing scattered snow showers. With this solution, cold air would remain locked in place through the weekend.


All signs point to a blast of truly frigid air by the start of next week with highs struggling to climb out of the single digits and teens! Stay tuned for more details on this as we get closer.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones


156 comments:

  1. Either way Rochester gets very little snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because these are the only two possible solutions amirite?

      -_-

      -_-

      -_-

      Delete
  2. And that, boys and girls, is a pattern change.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is GREAT NEWS. I like hearing cold and Lake effect, regardless of how much or little.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ✔ @whec_kwilliams

    Meanwhile, EURO ensemble for wknd event shows clustering of potential low locations that suggest snow accums in ROC. pic.twitter.com/rfuUcdYC6Z

    ReplyDelete
  5. Back and forth she goes...now the tendency is to go north again. This isn't going to be settled for awhile. It does look like a nice clipper/lake effect pattern afterwards though.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I looked at 3 models- GFS, GFS Para and EURO. All take the weekend system West of us with rain. I hate clippers. They are usually week and offer very little snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3 clippers over 8 days laying down 4-5 inches each is my dream weather scenario. It's cold and it just seems like it can't stop snowing when that happens. I hope it comes true at some point this winter for weeks and weeks on end..

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 11:37 AM

      I agree. I like clippers more than storms. They are good for 3-6" of snow, keep the snowpack fresh, are manageable , and precede cold air and lake effect.

      Delete
  7. With the cold air heading out way, and temperatures as Matt stated barely getting out of the teens and more than likely single digits -- not if we add wind to that. wonder what the wind chill factor will be.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Don't mind the days of a few inches of snow here and there -- it is better than a major winter storm with a feet or more of snow. This morning, I can take it; now if people can begin to remember how to drive in the winter would be nice.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Decent amount of snow here and still snowing pretty good ....

    ReplyDelete
  10. Rain rain rain next Sunday/Monday with that storm .What a surprise.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Rain, really?? Then put your name on your prediction!

    ReplyDelete
  12. This morning was a nice surprise. Grass is more than covered. GJ last night brushed it off like it was just some flurries over night just a dusting. So I did not expect to wake up to this. It's always nice to be surprised.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Unfortunately I am concerned about possible big icing this weekend in Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
  14. i love rochester mets.... maybe a dusting overnight.... 5 inches later you realize they really have no clue what there doing and its just a guessing game.... just my opinion... dont get your frozen panties in a bunch cccc

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree 100%. Now we will both get blasted by CCCC. Remember - the meteorolgist's first job is TV entertainment and ratings, second is predicting the weather.

      Delete
    2. So then quit watching their forecasts. Seems really stupid on your part to keep watching if you "know" they are just guessing.

      Delete
    3. You're both idiots. You have no idea what is takes to become a Met, let alone how to string a sentence together.

      Delete
    4. Way to bring some intelligence to this blog....I'm sure you guys could do better though? Right???

      Delete
  15. Well, I agree that all the METS missed this one. Had 6" of fluff in Gananda as of 6am, but please do not be so harsh. We are all human and make mistakes. It is a difficult job forecasting especially around the great lakes.Give them a break. It was a nice gift to wake up to snow since we have not seen it since the early December snowstorm.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Lake Effect Snow Warning just went up for Genesee and Wyoming Counties; any thought as to whether it will be headed our way? Expecting 6-12" of snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 1:53 PM

      There will be a west wind tonight, tomorrow morning. A little disturbance in the atmosphere will kick the surface winds and winds up to 5000 ft in a southwesterly direction late tomorrow, which will push the Erie snow band through Genesee Co and into western Monroe. Anyone west of 390 is game for some snow out of this 12-18 wind shift before the winds return to a westerly flow and set their aims back on Wyoming Co and Southern Genesee, not to mention Oswego Co east of the lake.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 1:55 PM

      12-18 "hour" - sorry, left out a word

      Delete
    3. Thanks that lends some clarify.

      Delete
  17. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 1:51 PM

    Meteorology is, in essence, predicting the future based on atmospheric conditions thousands of miles away and thousands of feet above us, that no one can see, hear or touch other than what radar and satellites show. I am impressed at how accurate they are most of the time. That aren't many businesses or sciences that engage in this type of uncertainty. Even those who do have many more calculable facts and trends at their disposal often do not foresee the events that come to happen in time. For example, no one predicted gasoline prices would plummet six months ago. So, being so trivial as to criticize an unexpected minor lake effect snow event, which are notoriously difficult to predict as they are dependent upon wind direction, sheer, temperatures at 5000 ft, etc…all things that can change or persist…is really unnecessary and petty in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Well, here in Victor, and at my parents place in Hilton, there WAS just a dusting, so I'd say they got the forecast just right!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Replies
    1. Probably preparing for New Year's Eve; remember he is a college student.

      Delete
  20. Must be nothing brewing on the horizon. No tweets from KW or JN about any potential storm. CCCC is mia thus nothing happening but it could be all the models are agreeing with the weekend storm going west which equals rain.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Did any of you even bother analyzing the models beyond the low placement? This isn't as simple as "west = rain." The past few runs of the GFS illustrate this perfectly...despite a track over Lake Erie we still get a significant thump of front-end snowfall. That is due to the cold surface high just to our northeast in Canada, it keeps the cold air penned in for most of the storm and we snow pretty good for several hours. A changeover to mix/rain is all but inevitable the way things look right now, but the eventual track/intensity of the storm plus the strength and placement of the cold high will ultimately determine how much snow we get vs mixed and/or liquid precipitation. The other model suites aren't quite as enthused with the front-end potential, but all give us at least some snowfall. Bottom line: this is still a changeable situation with a lot of moving parts and potential for significant wintry precipitation.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hey look, the NWS agrees with me:

    "IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND RESOLVE ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE TRENDS...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR WINTRY MIX (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT) WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND CERTAINLY A SYSTEM THAT WILL NEED WATCHING GOING FORWARD THIS WEEK."

    ReplyDelete
  23. And for the future trolls who say nothing interesting after this weekend...


    BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THERE DOES SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
    AGREEMENT IN A STRONGER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE
    BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR
    ADVECTION DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
    THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SNOWS TO DEVELOP. ONLY
    QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
    AVAILABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
    IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

    Couple that with an active southern branch and this blog should be in full swing for the foreseeable future

    ReplyDelete
  24. A West-NW wind does not affect Rochester. Only East of us. The storm this weekend will go West. We will start with snow- a few inches and it will change to plain rain. The theme this year is that storms go West. Not good for snow lovers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A prediction is worthless without a username! Is that you Bob?

      Delete
    2. So ignorant, I cannot even entertain it...

      Delete
    3. Apparently Mr. Anon E. Moose has a magical crystal ball that can tell us exactly what will happen this weekend. Also he seems to have deduced that a WNW mean wind flow will remain precisely WNW the entire time, with absolutely no chance of oscillation to NW from passing shortwaves and other disturbances. Mr. Anon E. Moose is really making a case for enrolling at Trollerstein University for their evidently outstanding meteorology program.

      Delete
  25. I decided to do a little research to determine if snowfall in NOV/DEC truly does predict how much snow will fall during JAN/FEB/MAR. The dataset I used included winters from 1970-71 through 2013-14. The averages used for each decade worth of seasons were calculated using the means of the prior 30 seasons, which is standard practice in regional climatology. So for example, the NOV/DEC total for 1972 was compared against the NOV/DEC average from 1940-1970, while the NOV/DEC total for 1993 was compared against the 1960-1990 average. I used a deviation of +/- 5 inches to determine what constitutes "above average" vs "below average," since barring a miracle we will finish this year's NOV/DEC period with a snowfall deficit of over 5 inches. What I found was that 14 NOV/DEC periods finished below average, and out of those only 8 featured a below average JAN/FEB/MAR period. That's constitutes a 57.14% success rate using the prediction method in question. The figure was slightly worse for above average NOV/DEC snowfall, 11/21 which is a 52.38% success rate (somehow there were far more above average NOV/DEC periods than below average ones, I'm guessing due to the highly prolific winters of the 1970s). As for near average NOV/DEC periods, the success rate was precisely zero with 8 winters fitting the bill.

    So summarized for the lazy and disinterested, it would appear that the amount of snow during NOV/DEC is not in any way a reliable predictor for the amount of snow during the rest of winter, at least not in Rochester. Please continue following the Aaron Rodgers path to salvation and peace of mind.

    ReplyDelete
  26. not one local met talking about a storm potential Sunday/Monday. NBD here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bob, Then STAY OFF THIS BLOG if you can't handle speculative discussion about weather potentials.

      PS- read the buf nws forecast discussion.

      Delete
    2. Trollerstein University produces some truly brilliant forecasters. I mean, who else would've figured out that a storm potential goes away once the local experts stop talking about it for three whole hours? Nothing gets past ol' Bobberino, no siree.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 9:23 PM

      Bob, the GFS has the storm going west; the Euro has it as a weak storm sliding off the coast near VA; the GEM has it centered near Albany, which is great location for us to get a lot of snow. Sooo…no one…met or weenie know what is going to happen yet. If you look at any of the models, you will see what a complex setup this is with many, many factors at play.

      Delete
  27. There will be a storm, but it looks to go West of us. The GFS, GFS Para and the Euro all show a West track. If this holds it will start as snow and then change to rain and then maybe back to snow again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the Canadian high is strong enough then a coastal transfer will occur quickly enough to avoid changing to rain, but that's a tremendous long shot right now. I will say that the models tend to underestimate the strength of these highs in the medium range.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 9:26 PM

      The Euro does NOT show a west track…it shows a southern slider. Look at the isobars centered right over us on Sunday on a model map…very tight around the bottom side of that Canadian High, which indicates a continuous trickle of cold. Yes, that could make ice a factor.

      Delete
    3. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014123012/ecmwf_T850_neus_6.png

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 9:47 PM

      I saw the 18z Euro valid for Sunday…showed that bad boy way off the coast…what the hell.

      Delete
    5. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 9:55 PM

      Check out this video at :25 seconds

      Delete
    6. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 9:55 PM

      http://www.ilsnow.com/2014/12/30/ilsnow-storm-center/

      Delete
    7. 18z is the time that the frame is valid for, not the time of the run itself. And that's clearly an outdated run anyway.

      Delete
    8. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 30, 2014 at 10:03 PM

      Yeah, I went back and looked and saw it was at 150 hours, which I believe would be the 18z timeframe for Sunday, from a model run more than a day ago. My mistake.

      Delete
  28. CCCC when would be the best time to have a good handle on the outcome? Friday or Saturday?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Any possibility that we could get ice out of this storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If the low and the Canadian high are both very strong then I can see consequential ice accretion.

      Delete
  30. Unless I am looking at something wrong the models are consistent in bring the strong low well west of us. Hopefully it will change but not looking good if you want snow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right Snowdog. Look at the News 8 forecast on homepage rain for Sunday.

      Delete
  31. This storm as models show again over night will be well tour west and lead to nothing big. More rain with low precipitation amounts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Is that you Bob? Sign your prediction or leave!

      Did you read the NWS forecast discussion this morning? Obviously No!

      Delete
  32. Yes it is Bob and missed that discussion please fill me in Anon 7:06.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bob, if you knew what you were talking about you'd be familiar with the buf nws forecast discussion that is updated numerous times per day, including 630am this morning.

      Delete
  33. And we should take that discussion as the gospel Anon(nameless)? Just trust good old Bob who often more right than wrong. There is an old saying for us when storms go to our west snow we get lest while rain is a pain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But Bob,your predictions aren't predictions but rather wild guesses. When you come here and say "This storm as models show again over night will be well tour west and lead to nothing big. More rain with low precipitation amounts"--- such statements aren't based on science but rather your cry for attention, probably to fill some other void in your life.

      Why don't you go away and find some other place to Troll!!!!

      Delete
    2. Anon 7:38 -- you might want to read the NWS Bulletin and updated (see below). So based on the below, it does seem that the majority of snow will fall to the West. Local Met are stating that depending on which way the storm travels will determine which areas get what.

      .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM
      EST FRIDAY...

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
      SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST
      FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

      * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

      * TIMING...NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

      * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST
      PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

      * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

      * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

      * IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
      AREA ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN
      HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
      AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

      So as you have said in several of your recent posting -- one might want to read before they post. The same can be said for you.

      Delete
    3. Bob,

      Are you confusing lake effect off Erie tonight and tomorrow with the weekend storm? Your post about most snow to west etc. in terms of lake effect we all realize that. No one is watching models thinking that lake effect is coming more east. I'm just slightly confused as to what you were trying to prove. You posted a lake effect snow warning not a segment from the forecaster discussion. (I know I said don't feed troll but I just had to fight this out)

      Delete
    4. Bob, you have your weather events confused, which is no surprise since trolls have little concern about facts. It's still way to early to say that the Weekend/Monday event will be rain for ROC. The NWS even says it in their forecast discussion. So when you come here this morning and say the overnight models all say "rain, rain, rain," that statement is not fact based, but rather troll based.

      You are a troll and nothing but a troll.

      Delete
  34. I thought we decided to stop feeding the troll. It's like a friggin broken record on here day after day. Please ignore any posts that are baseless and have no factual backing. The trolls are just trying to get a rise out of you and it's working. New Years resolution: ignore trolls.

    ReplyDelete
  35. just my thoughts here, what is a troll? someone with a differing opinion? this is a blog, all thoughts and opinions are open for discussions. just because someone calls you out on your amateur, crappy hyped up forecasting doesnt give you the right to exclude other opinions on here. i wasnt a part of this discussion but as i see it farmington, maybe your the troll

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ok anon... Maybe I shouldn't use the term troll...it basically just means someone who posts on here purely to piss people off. If you have read most of "bobs" posts, they usually are way off and clearly not his opinion, and if they are his opinion then I'm not sure why he comes to a weather blog to argue the lack there of (winter weather). I mean not disrespect.

      Delete
  36. I was talking about the storm next Sunday/Monday time. Going west even more on the over night runs. We will get less precipitation because of CAD and most ofit will be rain with a tad of snow on the front end.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "We will get less precipitation because of CAD"

      You're just tossing a bunch of words together. CAD doesn't lead to lower precipitation amounts.

      Delete
  37. Bob if you took offense to being called a troll I apologize. We have had posters like you before years ago (Andrew) that seemed to only post to get a rise out of us. If you truely want snow and are just a pessimist please let us know.

    ReplyDelete
  38. I always hate having to rely on warm advection to get snow, so much can (and usually does) go wrong and our local geography isn't conducive to CAD. The exact track of the storm doesn't concern me nearly as much as its strength plus the strength of the Canadian high, those will have more of a direct impact on how rapidly any changeover occurs. In any event it looks like the recent trend is towards a stronger low and a weaker high, so the significant wintry threat is reduced today. For anyone who wants to wave the white flag on this one, the next storm potential looks to be a vigorous clipper-type low during the middle of next week. Models have been depicting it as a rather prolific snow producer by clipper standards, with a swath of several inches diving down from the Canadian prairies. At the very least there is zero chance of it trending to the 5487th cutter storm of this season.

    ReplyDelete
  39. CCCC, I agree that the trend is not in favor at this point in time, but we still have to wait and see how strong the northern low becomes before models get a good handle on phasing it...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They seem to be pretty consistent at this point unfortunately. But we've seen sudden jumps occur once sampling happens. That actually occurred as recently as the March blizzard, most models had it as an ordinary winter storm before full sampling, then after that point they all suddenly converged on a more serious outcome.

      Delete
  40. Bottom line for next week -- lets all just agree that YES IT WILL BE COLD!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  41. Let me give reader's digest version of CCCC's long post. This storm rain, rain, and rain. Hope next week that we get a few inches from a clipper.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "This storm rain, rain, and rain."

      Not at all what I said. We're still probably going to get some snow.

      "Hope next week that we get a few inches from a clipper."

      Still not at all what I said. Here is a refresher:
      "Models have been depicting it as a rather prolific snow producer by clipper standards, with a swath of several inches diving down from the Canadian prairies."

      And again with emphasis on the part you glossed over:
      "Models have been depicting it as a rather prolific snow producer by clipper standards, with a swath of SEVERAL INCHES diving down from the Canadian prairies."

      lrn2readingcomprehension

      Delete
  42. Nothing we can do about it. Weather will do what weather will do. We cannot seem to get a storm to go East of us. Just think of how the BIG cioties feel in the NE that have not seen any snow yet and Las Vegas is supposed to get snow.

    This will be a quick bursy of snow and then quickly changing to a mix and then rain. Next week looks cold but I do not see a lot of snow especially on a WNW wind. That will take all te lake effect East of us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. -The WNW mean flow is not set in stone.
      -WNW looks right now to be the MEAN flow, we can still get periods of NW flow via passing shortwaves.
      -I don't feel sorry for the coastal cities, they've had it too good for too long.

      Delete
  43. Uuug. I am so sick of hearing Heavy lake effect snow South and West of Rochester and North and East of Rochester. JN and KW are not even talking about this weekends system anymore. They know it is no big dealer for us. I hate rain. Sorry to be so negative.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing is more obnoxious than a big honking cutter storm rearing its hideous, rainy warm sector in the middle of a frigid pattern. So I understand the frustration.

      Delete
  44. My snowmobile is now on sale for $45

    ReplyDelete
  45. Let's accentuate the positive-- Scott was hinting at a significant warm up in mid Jan on the telecast last night. Let's hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2014 at 2:53 PM

      The Euro shows that for January 15th…the duration of the warm-up is unknown at this time. Warm ups this year has tended to be overblown at first, then slowly forecasted downward in temperature and duration over time.

      Delete
    2. Any warmup that happens will be fleeting, and right now its magnitude isn't terribly pronounced.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2014 at 6:56 PM

      SInce I can't click "Like" I will type "Like". Like.

      Delete
  46. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2014 at 2:51 PM

    Reports from camp in NE Oswego County…well over 2 ft. I hear from my plow guy that it was coming down at a rate of 4" per hour around 3:00am. Those Lake Ontario bands off a W or WNW wind can be incredibly prolific…perhaps the most "efficient" of all the Great Lakes.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Warm up mid January is correct. The pattern is not and will not change. It will be a historic winter for lowest snow totals ever.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Could well be Bob. Could well be.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Could I get so cheese to go with this blog page. WOW

    ReplyDelete
  50. It will be what it will be and nothing more. I am not ready to give up on it at this point. I can tell there are no long term Bills fans besides myself on this page.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If by "long term" you mean at least a decade then you can include me in that group. I was just a toddler during the Super Bowl years but I've still experienced plenty of heartbreak. Most of these people haven't gone through that so they wind up crumbling at the first sign of trouble :P

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 31, 2014 at 7:00 PM

      I am with ya, brother. Joined on in the mid 90s, unfortunately, just missed all the Super Bowl runs (but was semi paying attention at age 14-18, '90-'93). Been to about 15 games, including three in 1994 (GB, Min, Denver on Monday night - which I think was the last Monday night game played in Buffalo). Been through hell, but that's probably why I get so emotional when they win…s**t, even when they play well.

      That being said, I am pulling for Frank Reich to be head coach though he has very limited experience, only being an OC for one year.

      Delete
    3. You should've seen me after the game vs Oakland...good lord I was livid. I'm way over it now but I'm still minus one TV remote :/

      It really is a nebulous situation at head coach now, and I'm not sure I trust any of the potential candidates. My heart pines for Gus Malzahn, but I'm not sure how willing he would be to leave Auburn. Hiring Rex Ryan would be interesting especially if Marrone goes to the Jets. Problem is that Ryan shouldn't be allowed within shouting distance of an NFL offense, so he would need an extremely capable OC to complement his strength of coaching defense. A lot of fans really want Bill Cowher, but based on the number of times his name has been thrown around to no avail I would say the chances of that are just about zero. And as for Reich, he has a grand total of one season worth of experience at OC, so promoting him to a head coaching position right away would be incredibly risky. The rest of the potential candidates are total garbage, even Jim Schwartz who makes a great DC but a lousy HC as his history with the Lions demonstrates.

      But I digress, this is not a sports blog...

      Delete
  51. So brushing aside the full retard bittercasting from Bob and Snowdog, I still see zero reason to panic. We still have several opportunities for snow in the foreseeable future: the storm this weekend, the clipper next week and a period of frigid WNW to NW flow afterward. I included "to NW" in there because I'm seeing some hints of the mean flow veering to NW after the clipper passage, namely in the GGEM and the Euro. There are also building signs of yet another system approaching next weekend, but the big picture on that one is still rather nebulous. We should see a relaxation from the cold by mid month, but if Judah Cohen is correct in his latest outlook then it will be fleeting and perhaps followed by a longer lasting cold pattern. The current stratospheric warming is the strongest of the season so far, and the way things are going it should land a big haymaker on the PV which would promote more of a negative AO regime for awhile.

    So bottom line: several snow opportunities in the near future, then a fleeting mid month warmup of sorts followed by a longer lasting cold regime. Any predictions of historically low seasonal snowfall are nothing short of completely ridiculous, especially since we only need 7 more inches to surpass the all time low anyway. That is easily do-able by the end of next week let alone the end of the winter season.

    ReplyDelete
  52. By the way...

    "12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF EJECTING SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW AND HAS BEEN FOR A FEW CYCLES NOW. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH GIVEN THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW AND PULL IT INTO OUR REGION IS STILL OVER THE DATA SPARSE GULF OF ALASKA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF AREA AND ANY MINOR DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON FINAL PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ANY POTENTIAL ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE WILL PROVIDE JUST A GENERAL OVERVIEW WITH THE ADDED THOUGHT THAT FORECAST DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS BETTER SAMPLED BY NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK."

    That's from the latest AFD. There are still important details to iron out for this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  53. And furthermore...

    "MUCH COLDER AIR LOOKS TO RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING MUCH BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF BOTH LAKES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT...DEPENDING HOW THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SET UP. BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME."

    Also from the AFD. So cut the pessimistic "nothing but rain all lake effect east of us" stupidity, because nothing about the next 7 or 8 days is as guaranteed as it may seem.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Wind shear is really doing a number on that Lake Erie band...I get the feeling that the highest totals will be well inland across Genesee County where less shear exists.

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  55. Light snow for a few hours so far in Webster. That band has some big time reach.

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  56. In Brockport I just measured in multiple spots, we have 5 fluffy inches so far. I'll be out with the kids in the morning.

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  57. GJ pretty clear light wintry mix then rain this weekend. Done.

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  58. I am not so sure an icing situation can be ruled out this weekend.

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  59. Happy to get a little snow to plow last night. Also happy to see a couple of Bills fans sharing same concerns.

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  60. Models tracked the storm further NW over night. Party is over this baby is done for Rochester.

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  61. The models have taking this thing even further NW. We will get a good rainstorm this time. We will get some snow next week but communities East of both lakes could get buried with Lake effect.

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  62. KW has thrown in the towel for this weekend too. Rain as I predicted days ago. Of course KW is now excited about real cold temps with no snow next week. That is like Thanksgiving with no meal. But I guess he has to get excited about something since this winter will continue to bust.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Still assessing new data coming in but I suspect there will be lots of shivering and shoveling across WNY/CNY next week." -KW on Twitter

      You and Snowdog need to learn how to read.

      Delete
  63. Latest AFD regarding this weekend:

    "THE 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A 150KT UL JET AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES (EXCEEDING AN INCH) TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY INCLUDE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE PCPN CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST FROM THIS TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES (OR EVEN A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT) AT THIS TIME."

    The northern stream shortwave that will be key to this whole thing still needs to be sampled, so it's still an unclear picture at this point. Meanwhile KROC recorded another 2.6 inches of snow last night, reducing the seasonal deficit to just 3.5 inches. That clipper for next week still looks interesting, and there still looks to be a period of frigid NW flow behind it, so the way it looks right now we are not on track to be mere spectators to the Tug getting slammed again. So summarized: uncertainty remains for this weekend, next week still looks frigid AND snowy, and this winter is nowhere remotely close to "busting" despite all of the full retard bittercasting from Weenie and the Troll.

    ReplyDelete
  64. CCCC you are great at not reading too. I also said this weekend which you been bantering/posting from NSW that still great uncertainty. That is done are you ready to admit that or still going to say I am nuts? I did mention in my last post KW excited about real cold next week so I can read. If real cold floats your boat then hooray.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lets see who should I believe more, Bob with his silly guesswork or the NWS with their emphasis on uncertainty? Yes, you ARE nuts, even if you end up being right.

      "I did mention in my last post KW excited about real cold next week so I can read."
      And you conveniently neglected to reference the snow component of his tweets. In fact...

      "Of course KW is now excited about real cold temps WITH NO SNOW next week." -You from today

      "Still assessing new data coming in but I suspect there will be lots of shivering AND SHOVELING across WNY/CNY next week." -KW on Twitter

      Learn.
      To.
      Read.

      Delete
  65. Okay CCCC what is your prediction for this weekend. I will go on record and say a few inches 2 tops of front end snow. Then rain and temps drop with no precipitation after that. NBD as I have been saying the last 4 days. Next week cold temps with a few inches 3 tops from clipper then LES in the usual areas NOT north of the thruway. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have no meaningful prediction for this weekend, I'm not one to thump my chest with premature conclusions unlike you.

      "...then LES in the usual areas NOT north of the thruway."

      The usual LES areas off Lake Ontario are entirely north of the thruway...

      Delete
    2. Okay just let us know Saturday what is going to happen this weekend that would be safe. You know what I mean about the LES snow. Traditional snow belt areas not the city. Not only does your reading have to improve. Your ability to make inferences has to grow.

      Delete
    3. I know what you meant AND what you typed. And what you typed reflects geographical ignorance. I'll grant that the traditional Lake Erie belt is not north of the Thruway, maybe you got the two big lakes confused? Next Christmas I'm going to secret-santa you a giant map of WNY to tape to your wall, so that you don't get confused again.

      I like you Bob, you bring me great joy :P

      Delete
    4. CCCC no college papers to write?

      Delete
    5. I'm in the midst of an internship as required by my program, so no school assignments for me.

      Delete
  66. That was KWs most recent tweet I referenced Mr. Reader. My work is all scientific and model based. I just do not cut paste things from the NWS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "That was KWs most recent tweet I referenced Mr. Reader."
      What a coincidence, the tweet I quoted just so happens to be KW's most recent tweet...

      "My work is all scientific and model based."
      OMG I literally died of laughter just reading that.

      "I just do not cut paste things from the NWS."
      Right, you just glance at the GFS and call every storm potential a done deal. Is that what you meant by your "work" being "scientific and model based?" Good lord XD

      Delete
    2. LOL Bob! You are giving yourself too much credit. No scientific research for you. You're just a wild assed guessing contrarian.

      Delete
    3. What does contrarian mean? I would look it up in the dictionary but I just finished my painting my nails.

      Delete
  67. Well my forecast is on record for this weekend and next week. You say this, "I have no meaningful prediction for this weekend" duh do you ever?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Well my forecast is on record for this weekend and next week."
      Congratulations Mr. Science Man.

      "You say this, "I have no meaningful prediction for this weekend" duh do you ever?"
      Does it matter at all? Are we having a pissing contest over whose meaningless amateur forecast does the best? Sorry but you're the only one playing that game.

      Delete
    2. Okay I win thanks .

      Delete
    3. You'll receive your trophy in the mail within 3-5 business days. Congratulations on your great success.

      Delete
  68. Why thank-you Mr. CCCC for the kind words much appreciated. Now on to the 12z Euro shortly keep me updated.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll do you one better:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

      Now you can refine your "work" to be even more "scientific and model based." Happy forecasting :P

      Delete
  69. "Despite warm look to the Ensembles in the 10-15, only expecting a brief warm up from ~1/10-1/12, then back below normal rockies-apps."

    Straight from our knowledgeable good friend blizzardof96 on twitter. Meanwhile the AO and NAO are now showing hints of dipping closer to negative by mid month, while the PNA shows signs of rising towards positive. The MJO currently looks to head into either Phase 7 or the CoD by then as well, which at the very least would not hurt our chances for a more sustained cold pattern later in the month.

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  70. The GFS and its parallel counterpart are the only global models that don't produce any snow on Saturday. All others yield at least a few inches of slop before the changeover, even the Euro with its track from Chicago to Sudbury still gives us an advisory level snowfall. This demonstrates perfectly why the exact track matters far less than the intensity of both the storm and the Canadian high, as the GFS and the Euro differ drastically on snowfall despite largely identical tracks. Strong wind could become a problem on Sunday, especially if anything resembling the NAM is destined to verify. It produces gusts of 60-70 mph at times, but my guess is that it's overdone due to the model's systemic bias of over-amplifying storm systems. This storm will be interesting to track even if we don't land a single flake of snow.

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  71. CCCC come on you know how bad NAM is? Is this storm really that intense because I do not see a great deal of precipitation associated with this storm? Your friend Bob

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "...but my guess is that it's overdone due to the model's systemic bias of over-amplifying storm systems."

      I know exactly how terrible the NAM is. This won't be the strongest storm ever but it'll still be pretty vigorous, and right now it looks like we'll be dealing with around an inch of liquid equivalent.

      Delete
  72. It seems like the models have all pretty much agreed on track? Has everything been sampled and will the 12z runs tomorrow be the definitive runs? In other words are we set with track or can that change?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Track will probably vary by around 50 miles or so in either direction. I think the northern stream component still has to be sampled, but tomorrow's 12z runs should indeed settle the majority of the coarse details. I'm more interested in the eventual strength of the storm and the high in Canada, those matter a lot more regarding p-type. This reeks of a situation that will come down to nowcasting, warm advection events with cold highs in place are notoriously difficult to forecast.

      Delete
  73. Now that is better we can get along.

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  74. Yes HP just have started my New Years resolution to be nice only to CCCC. I hope since this is a difficult forecast we get a new post from News 8 on what they are thinking.

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  75. I am more interested in next weeks weather. I will take cold clipper producing patterns all winter long. If we can get some help from the lake it could be particularly snowy in Hamlin next week. Overtime this season is not good :(

    ReplyDelete
  76. CCCC is there any ice potential for us with this storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No surface cold drainage from the NE = not ideal for significant ice. If any does accrete then it will melt in rather short order anyway.

      Delete
  77. Seems like the NWS is leaning away from any meaningful snowfall this weekend. I choose to lean towards at least a minor accumulation at this time, but it's going to be close. Here is the latest AFD on next week:

    "MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SHOWING A STRONG CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -24C AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD VEERS TO NORTHWEST. SOME MINOR SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS THIS ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INCLUDING THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND ROCHESTER TO FULTON. ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS...TH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL GET SQUASHED TO NEAR THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE...WHICH MAY LIMIT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATION TO SOME DEGREE BUT AT SAME TIME WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE FOR REDUCING VISIBILITY."

    Scott also mentioned frequent lake snow on FB a little while ago, and bitter cold to boot. My body is ready.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Why can't we ever get a wind direction that favors big lake effect snow for the city of Rochester. It is always E or SW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "THIS WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INCLUDING THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND ROCHESTER TO FULTON."

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      Delete
  79. Today's Rose Bowl pregame festivities had an unwelcome guest today...a dust devil:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGhqlJnFIXU

    ReplyDelete
  80. KW tweets potential for sub zero temps Thursday morning next week and that is without winds.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Also this:

    "Arctic winds next week will be players in ROC w/ 2 windows where northwest flow will open the door to Mr. Lake Effect...shiver and shovel"

    ReplyDelete
  82. Do you think they will put up Lake effect snow watches for Monroe and Wayne counties.

    ReplyDelete

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