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Friday, December 26

Wintry weather returns for 2015

Can you believe we are days away from 2015?!?  Seems like only yesterday we were all worried about Y2K.  Arctic high pressure will move into the Northeast next Monday.  Reaction from the lakes will be limited due primarily to the lack of moisture available.  Even the cold that is coming looks to be about normal for this time of year. 

 
No significant storms are on the horizon. 

79 comments:

  1. I might need a refresher here...the horizon is where the GFS truncates, right?

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  2. Thank-you News 8just as I have been saying. No significant storms on the horizon.

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  3. Did look beyond the horizon and farther and farther still nothing of importance. Please CCCC stop spreading false hope and go with what the professional mets posted. If not then you run the risk of getting Snowdog angry.

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    1. Do I really need to do this again?

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122612/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_9.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

      I don't do false hope, son.

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  4. Why then are you CCCC the only one posting/talking about storm potentials. No one else on the blog or local mets mentioning anything?

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    1. KW:

      "EURO/others give next storm threat wknd after New Year's."

      Of course he's always on these storm potentials really early no matter how credible they are, so his input at this range isn't worth much. This potential seems pretty credible to me though, more so than the NYE one since there is much better model consistency. My guess is that others aren't talking about it either because they haven't noticed it yet or because it's still more than a week away.

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  5. or because your all hacks, i can look out the window and forecast better weather

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    1. Quick, tell me what your window says about Sunday's high temperature.

      Exactly, now kindly GTFO.

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  6. Lack of cold and snow gets everybody all hot and bothered. CCCC: he is getting to you. Don't feed the troll.

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    1. I'll feed the troll until he gets diabetes. Lack of wintryness has nothing to do with it, we're about to flip in that regard anyway.

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  7. Looking out the window or even 3 days out is pretty boring stuff. Everyone does that. I can get that forecast 5000 different places. Trying to figure out what is just beyond that is fun. I don't know why so many people get their undergarments all knotted up over it. It's speculation.. semi educated guess... entertainment. You don't have to believe a word of it if.

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  8. Models still showing no big storms on the horizon as the professional met has posted. I am sure CCCC will be selling there are storms there?

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    1. Wow, you're so right. You really know how to look at Models.....

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

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    2. Anon 905AM, what are YOU looking at?

      The GFS on the link about shows a storm for next weekend (not that I believe anything a week away) but you're the one saying "showing no big storms."

      KW tweeted "EURO/others give next storm threat wknd after New Year's."
      and "This is the kind of pattern that looks ripe for big precip producers in east, the potential system New Year's wknd could be the beginning."

      Snowdog, it's there but I think you made a copy/paste error.

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    3. What I see is a system next weekend way tour south?

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  9. Ontario what does that show because it says page not found when I go there. Can you shed some light please.

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  10. Definitely getting colder next week starting tomorrow and beyond which is good news for the ski resorts!

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  11. Looking at latest 12z GFS still see nothing impressive for next weekend. I guess I am missing something that both the great CCCC and KW are seeing.

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  12. Mr. Anon E. Moose continues to stubbornly resist reality. The major models are still hinting at a storm for next weekend, but consistency on track/intensity is still lacking. The only consistent idea has been some sort of system occurring next weekend, in close enough proximity to bear watching.

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  13. CCC is correct. The models are showing a storm but this far out it is all just speculation. Most of the models take it West right now keeping us on the warm side. Other models give us snow, then rain then back to snow. Most of next week is dry but it gets progressively colder, but not extreme. Today it feels like spring. People are out riding bikes, playing golf, basketball. This is winter? Something is strange in Denmark. So far this is nothing like last winter.

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    1. To be completely fair, last winter was pretty much the gold standard for consistent winter chill. The hammer dropped right around Thanksgiving and that was all she wrote, we remained cold through basically the entire rest of the season. Any expectation for an immediate repeat of that would've been DOA even after the SAI picture was completely painted. That said, I don't think anyone expected December to be quite this dull. A lot of the most prominent analogs have worked out well so far, but those only account for 500 mb height anomalies not sensible impacts here at the surface. We've simply run into some horrendous luck so far outside of one storm. Speaking of which, just imagine the meltdowns we'd be seeing on this blog if not for that storm, without it we'd easily be working on historically low December snowfall.

      I do expect our luck to change fairly soon though, January appears to be setting up quite nicely.

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    2. Yeah. Take away the 10.9" that fell from that storm and we would only be at 10" for the season. Yike.

      Delete
  14. The Regular GFS takes it to our west. The Para GFS takes it too far South and East. Again way early.

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    1. Prediction: the Euro will come in with either a triple-phased megabomb across Lake Huron or a flat wave sliding off the Delmarva.

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    2. I think it does show a flat wave moving South. You are correct.

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    3. It did last night, the current run isn't far enough along yet but it doesn't look like it'll be suppressed to me.

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  15. I still need to see the Wundermap version with shorter intervals, but from a first glance the Euro looks pretty good. Gets a little nippy afterwards too:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_neus_10.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122712/ecmwf_T850_neus_11.png

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  16. Please repeat after me there are no storms on the horizon including the next two weeks. Please check back after January 10th.Thank-you CCCC

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  17. I do not like the SE ridge. I don't like it one bit.

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  18. That's not the biggest problem right now, the issue is that literally every teleconnection is polar opposite (no pun intended) of where we need it. It'll definitely be up and down for a bit, but we will get our fair share of cold and snow.

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  19. Well. I hope things change with the models this week for next weekend or we are looking at a wet storm again as it will pass west of us as of now.

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  20. What are the chances of snow next weekend? All Mets seem to think rain...

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  21. Rain for sure no snow. Storm if there is one is going to our west which always brings rain. Going to be this pattern all year.

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  22. Well after today it looks like average to below average temps for the next 8 of 9 days. So at least temperatures are headed in the right direction.

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  23. The great CCCC has quieted down about possible storm potential next weekend.

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    Replies
    1. Well troll, instead of constantly harassing one person that adds value to this blog, why don't you post with a REAL username to actually stand behind your predictions!

      Delete
  24. NO major storms on the horizon.

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  25. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 12:09 PM

    Starting to get a little testy here. The misplaced (for us, anyway) EPO is what is causing our current lack of winter weather. Last year, despite a neutral and positive AO/NAO, we had a fairly consistently cold and snowy winter (everyone seems to forget the two week January meltdown, and the semi-meltdown during Presidents Week) due to a persistently dominant -EPO off the west coast. It is there now, just too far north and a little too far west. This is causing the "horseshoe" of polar air to be in the Rockies to the Mississippi. This is allowing a large area of high pressure over the Caribbean (SE Ridge) to push inwards towards the eastern US. With a positive NAO, there is no blocking. So, despite having most of the puzzle pieces, they do not fit the puzzle board we have! Is this another 2011-12?!?! My opinion at this point is, probably not, but cold air and snow will definitely be limited as compared to average.

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    1. This definitely isn't another 2011-12, that winter was DOA the moment Thanksgiving hit and every long range forecaster knew it. This time around it's simply a matter of patience. Although it would really be nice to have a negative NAO for once in our lifetimes -_-

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  26. I've been quiet because I've been busy having a life, unlike certain anonymous troglodytes who practically live on the internet.

    Next weekend still has a chance to be mostly snow, but we're really playing with fire when it comes to that SE ridge. At the very least there is some potential for snow accumulation on the front end.

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  27. This for sure presents itself very much like the 2011-12 winter not good.

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    1. You have to look beyond the surface here at home though. That winter had a massive and persistent upper low in the Gulf of Alaska that encouraged a mild zonal flow more often than not There is no such feature this year, in fact there is no sign of any such pattern for the foreseeable future. Come to think of it...looking at the various ensemble means I'm not sure I understand where all of the angst is coming from in the first place.

      Delete
  28. CCCC once again is correct something brewing for next weekend. Keep the updates CCCC and do not get caught up with Mr. Negative.

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  29. From JN; Not good for winter lovers.

    But the staying power of the cold that's ahead remains questionable. After Jan 10th, pattern may flip again to a milder setup in the East.

    If this happens we may be looking at a SNOW drought.

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  30. Yep not looking good according to JN and he is the professional. So lets see what the great CCCC says as a rebuttal now?

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  31. I am not trying to be negative but it just does not look good for winter lovers. JN is stating that next weekends storm will most likely be an inside runner to our West again. Just plain rain. The Ski resorts are going to be hurting. They cannot even make snow because it is not cold enough, They may be able to make some this week but only to melt come the weekend. This really bites. It was supposed to be a cold and snowy winter. Goes to show you that weather ill do what it wants no matter what the models point to.

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  32. And everyday that passes is one day closer to spring. No matter what happens, we have already whisked away 2 months of winter with just 1 storm under our belt. Two months left of potential winter. It's still going to be a short winter this year, unlike last year!

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    1. 1) In what universe is November a winter month?
      2) In what universe is March not a sort-of-winter month? Our biggest storms happen in March more than any other month.

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  33. When JN says "pattern may flip again to a milder setup," in what way does that insinuate that we're going to remain mild through the rest of the winter? Patterns flip and flop, rarely do they remain in one state for months on end. And as for next weekend's storm, the GFS is now a warm outlier when measured up against the ensembles and other operational models (save for the Euro which is now a southern outlier). The consensus takes the system overhead or just south of our region around next Sunday. To me it looks like snow to rain, then back to snow.

    The amount of angst right now is just ridiculous. This isn't last winter, nor are we heading for a 2011-12 repeat. R-E-L-A-X

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  34. Nov. was a winter month last year and our worst storms often do occur in March but a week after they happen it can be 70 degrees. 1993 is a prime example and after last years March storm, the snow was gone for good within 10 days. Say what you want. This will be a much shorter winter than last year, no matter how severe the next 2 months might be.

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    Replies
    1. Almost every winter is shorter than last year, that was a special winter. Unlike seemingly most people here I'm not concerned in the slightest.

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  35. Anybody want to buy a snowmobile? Need more than a storm in March to use one of those. $50

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  36. As of the new 18z GFS run, not a lick of reliable guidance takes the storm west of us. Not. A. Lick. Maybe some ensemble members still do, but that would amount to cherrypicking. We'll continue to see flip flopping in the near future, but as of now the all rain idea looks less likely than it did before.

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  37. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 5:59 PM

    Anyone else remember 2006-07? Winter weather lovers were practically suicidal as of Dec. 28, 2006. I think there was 4" (?) of snow recorded at KROC at that point, mostly dustings that added up to the 4" total. It was fairly warm, sunny actually, for the first part of that winter season. Then, January and February 2007 turned colder and snowier than average. We had about 8-10 weeks of solid winter with NO warm-ups, IIRC. I was still riding my sled on March 11 along the Rt 104 trail in Wayne County, with plenty of snow still on the ground. I remember that specifically because that was the latest in any year that I have ridden locally, and the switch to standard time had already occurred. It was neat to be out for a ride on a cold sunny day, with it still bright at 7 o'clock! Anyway, I wasn't a weather weenie to this extent eight years ago, so I do not know if the setup resembled this one. All I know is that in late December, snowmobilers were depressed, and by the middle of March, they were happy as can be, with as many miles on their odometers as a typical season.

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    1. "Solid" winter? We got basically our entire seasonal average in a span of about 7 or 8 weeks. If that happens again this season then it will make everyone completely forget about the angst they're feeling right now. The current situation isn't even remotely as dire as that one was anyway, nothing short of the cataclysmic SSW that eventually did happen would've sufficed to flip that pattern. Speaking of strong SSW events, here is one projection I came across today:

      http://i.imgur.com/AcVzC1g.gif

      Regardless of whether that verifies or not, we really need to put the kibosh on the ridiculous winter cancellation posts. We still have a lot of time left.

      PS: you aren't a weenie Chris.

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    2. I also want to add that the upcoming pattern STILL doesn't warrant any panic. It's not a bad pattern at all, just not ideal for big storms and probably not persistent either.

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    3. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 6:28 PM

      PS: you aren't a weenie Chris."

      Thanks! …I think...

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    4. It's definitely not a good thing to be a weenie, so...you're welcome ;o

      Delete
    5. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 7:02 PM

      BTW, what pattern are you referring to above? The next 10 days or something longer term?

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    6. The next 10 days. Longer term is still up in the air, but nothing jumps out at me as being potentially disastrous. The MJO may warm us up for about a week, because the MJO apparently hates fun.

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    7. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 7:29 PM

      Yeah, I saw that. Looks like Day 10-15 from today, then it enters the cold phases of 6,7,8. This will bother people, but I do not really care about snow here in the ROC…I am more interested in snowfall north of Syracuse where my camp is. I do not see any forecasts of lake effect snow off the east end of Lake Ontario with the impending cold air, even though it is coming in on a W-NW flow. I know there are many factors that predicate the formation of lake effect snow bands, but it seems like all the ingredients are there for this week and next. Then again, I have been up there when the area has received 18" of snow and no one had predicted that either.

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    8. Yup. '06-'07 was my first Western NY winter. Until about Martin Luther King we had like 6 inches of snow. I was not impressed. Then a moderate ice event mid Jan. The switch flipped and we got our entire annual average snowfall in like 8 weeks. I'd look for specifics. But I'm mobile. And...little kids.

      Delete
  38. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 28, 2014 at 6:35 PM

    FYI there have only been three other Decembers with five days of measurable snow: 1939, the aforementioned 2006, and the dreaded 2011. Of course, December 2014 is not over yet, but as of 12/28, this December is #4. Courtesy: Josh Nichols

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  39. So as of 00z here is how our potential storm looks on the operational models:

    Cold solutions (wintry/suppressed) - pGFS, GGEM, Euro, JMA, NAVGEM
    Warm solutions (liquid) - GFS

    We've seen this movie before folks...

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  40. Have never seen JN as depressed as he has been the last two days giving the weather forecast. It was like he was putting all his energy into the forecast for the coming week. Unless there is a winter storm or possible blizzard on the way; he might need therapy soon to get out of the depression he appears to be in.

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    Replies
    1. Didn't his voice start crapping the bed a few days ago? That could have something to do with it.

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  41. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122906/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

    And to think, just 18 hours ago this thing was going to be wide left and a rainer...

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  42. So what is your prediction great CCCC?

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    Replies
    1. There will be a system and it will produce precipitation somewhere in the US, likely of the frozen or liquid variety.

      I really just don't know at this point, this whole thing will come down to timing of shortwaves in a fast jet flow. Nearly impossible to form even a general idea from this range. I thought earlier that the picture was slowly becoming clear, but that no longer seems to be the case. I will say that the strength of that Canadian high will make it difficult for the storm to cut west. There would have to be a lot of northern stream involvement, which as of right now is depicted only by the GFS and its bias towards over-amplifying northern stream systems.

      Delete
  43. The 12z runs of the GFS and pGFS could not possibly be more at odds with each other than they are right now. The old GFS went back to its previous cutter solution, tracking the low just west of us as heavy northern stream involvement leads to greater amplification. The pGFS is still suppressed but manages to place us on the fringe, from a limited glance it looks like a moderate event. Still waiting on the foreign guidance, if it all comes in with colder solutions for a third straight run cycle then it brings us a tiny bit closer to forming a general idea.

    Meanwhile something very strange happened to me this morning...I awoke to find some sort of white, powdery substance scattered about the exterior of my car. I didn't realize it was possible for cars to have dandruff, but that has to be the case here since we don't get snow at this latitude anymore.

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  44. And the 12z GGEM goes back to a cutter...lovely. So we still have no consistency and are still no closer to forming a general idea. I will say that the run looks pretty bad for snow initially, but it actually starts transferring to a coastal secondary as it moves towards Lake Erie. So 850s remain cold enough for nearly all snow, with maybe a brief window of mix/rain. Still waiting on a snow map but I can see decent amounts from that run verbatim.

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    1. And in the likely event that *certain people* don't read past the first sentence, here is the total snowfall through 168 hours:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122912/gem_asnow_neus_28.png

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    2. How much snow are your predicting?

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  45. The Euro continues the theme of suppression with a sheared-out wave sliding through the southeast, but from what I've read today about half of its ensemble members are well north of such a track. And in light of today's model tendencies I found this bit from the NWS AFD to be more than a little baffling:

    "TREND IN 12Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING CONCERN THAT EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE/FAST PHASING THIS CUTOFF UPPER LOW BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM."

    Recall my earlier post where all four major models were suppressed well to our south. Now only one of them is, with two tracking very close by while the other puts us on the fringe. Then the AFD goes on to seemingly dismiss any real chance of snow occurring despite the more recent consensus keeping us very much in the game, even more so than this morning. Maybe the model mayhem is starting to wreak some serious havoc on forecasters' minds...

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  46. Well it looks like over the last couple days the predicted 40 plus degree temps for next Saturday have been reduced back into the mid 30's. NWS says average to mostly below temps through Friday. Wunderground shows average to below temps for the next 9 days.

    Great news and things are heading in the right direction for winter. Maybe we can sneak in a good snow storm also :)

    Andy

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  47. Still not a lot of snow in the forecast at all. The NWS states that most of the precip this weekend will be shunted to the South of us.

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 29, 2014 at 7:25 PM

      SD - the models are taking way different approaches to this weekend's event. No way to tell yet whether it will be rain or miss us completely.

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