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Saturday, January 10

ANOTHER BLAST OF FRIGID AIR NEXT WEEK

The frigid air that has been locked in place for several days will start to loosen its grip on western New York through early next week as a storm system approaches from the southwest.

Ahead of this weak system, south winds will allow some slightly milder air to move north with temperatures rebounding into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Light snow will overspread much of the region as this relatively mild and moist airmass gets lifted over the cold, dry air that we have in place at the surface. Snow with this will be minor with most places seeing a few inches at most.

As the light snow moves out, another blast of bitterly cold air will plunge south into the state with highs by Tuesday struggling to climb out of the single digits. Overnight lows by the middle of next week could fall close to zero in many locations.


The ECMWF model shown above suggests that many locations will plunge well below zero during this time. Remember, this is just one forecast model among many that we use to help us put together our forecast.

Despite the cold air, this will be a rather uneventful weather pattern with not much opportunity for snow over the next week.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

59 comments:

  1. There will not be much opportunity for snow the next 2 weeks Matt. Thanks for being honest.

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    1. "Despite the cold air, this will be a rather uneventful weather pattern with not much opportunity for snow over the next week."
      "over the next week."
      "the next week."

      http://britishseafishing.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/RS-Mackerel-Bait-Presentation.jpg

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  2. Going with 2-4 inches for tonight/tomorrow's overrunning event, maybe a touch higher in some localized areas near the lake. Recent model runs have been slightly more bullish with QPF. Otherwise the next real possibility for action still looks to be during the middle portion of MLK week. That system could turn out to be anything, but my guess is still a great lakes cutter that pulls us back into a cold regime. As was the outlook a week ago, the ensuing pattern still looks much more favorable for organized storms than the current one.

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  3. Where is the cold air coming from midweek? I thought it was going to warm up? News 10 has it minus 2 for Wednesday morning? Will the wind chill be brutal again? CCCC what is happening here.

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  4. Will the precipitation tonight/tomorrow be snow for sure? We do not have to worry about freezing rain do we?

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  5. - The cold is coming due to clearing behind the arctic front of a clipper type system that will pass to our north.
    - Wind chills don't look nearly as brutal this time around.
    - No indication of any freezing rain tonight or tomorrow.
    - The real warmup was always going to be next week.

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  6. 2-4 is too high. 1-2 at most. Boring like Matt said.

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    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015011112/nam4km_asnow_neus_15.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011112/gfs_asnow_neus_7.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015011112/gfsp_asnow_eus_7.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015011112/gem_asnow_eus_6.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015011112/rgem_asnow_neus_12.png
      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_50prcntil_2015011112f066.gif

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      "THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/GFS) AS WELL AS MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND BRING A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK...

      ...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...JUST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MUCH OF IT WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIKELY SLOWING THE MONDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE AGAIN."

      You were saying?

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    2. Like I said 1-2. We will be on the low side. 1-2 at best. 3 for the lucky few, if you call that lucky.

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    3. So you're just making a wild guess without evidence then? Got it.

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  7. Bring on the warmth. This winter sucks.

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  8. Looking forward to some more snow. Hamlin should be at the high end of the totals by the end of Monday night. By the time the limited LES is over, I wouldn't be surprised if Hamlin had 4-6 inches. I will take it before a bit of a quiet period.

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    1. Quiet period. It has been quiet since the storm in early December. 4-6 is way too high. No way.

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  9. MJO reminds you to keep your arms and legs inside the ride until it comes to a complete stop.

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    1. Teles look much more favorable in the medium range too, especially the AO. Weenie roast still on hold.

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  10. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO FALL IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THAT RANGE MORE LIKELY IN THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 4 INCHES ON THE HILLS."

    Well isn't that convenient. Also this:

    "EXPECT TO SEE SOME MULTIBANDED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS TO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AS THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST. EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY WILL SEE THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE."

    So in the span of a week we will have had:

    - A clipper
    - An intense arctic front
    - Some lake effect with a lot of wind
    - Another clipper
    - A light to moderate overrunning event
    - Some more lake effect

    That's a lot of activity. Definitely not quiet despite none of it being major. Also I agree with HP, he should easily finish in the 4-6 inch range once the lake effect is done.

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    1. Wow. 2 inches of snow with all that. That is active????

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    2. Close to 5 inches actually. And yes, four snow events in three days is the definition of active.

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  11. You hit the nail on the head CCCC, it was active last week. Some think if it is not major that it doesn't count. I feel sorry for that few, because major events will happen a lot less often than minor ones.

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  12. How can you say last week was active??????? Do we live in the same area. Wow our standards have dropped to what winter weather should be..

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    1. SNOWED JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OUT OF 7 IN HAMLIN. FAR FROM NOT ACTIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    2. Four distinct snow events in the span of three days is active. Doesn't matter how much snow each individual event produced. Active doesn't have to mean high impact.

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  13. KW is also hinting on Lake Enhancement on a NNE wind giving bonus snows. Hamlin always makes out well with a NNE flow and lake enhancement. So 4-6 could be on the money. Last season we had a Lake enhanced event on a COLD NNE flow that dumped 18 inches in Hamlin, when MUCH LESS was forecasted. So 6 inches is not out of the question.

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  14. I agree with HP. We could see up to 6" with the system, plus lake enhancement plus lake effect. Who knows maybe more. I hope so because after this it looks to warm up.

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  15. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 11, 2015 at 6:21 PM

    Back from camp. North of us got HAMMERED with lake effect snow most of the weekend. We got about 2-3 ft during the week, and it settled down to about 15" over time. I thought we were in for a cold air drainage event Saturday night/Sunday morning with no wind, clear sky, deep snowpack in nearby high elevations. At 7:00 it was 0 F and we were losing a degree every 12-15 minutes. Got as low as -2 F and a light south wind picked up. Temps were up to 3 F at midnight.

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    1. South wind was probably due to the approaching system. Glad you were able to cash in on some big snowfall though.

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  16. Latest model now looks like NBD for this one. Lake enhancement isn't appearing to take shape. We're also now looking at some mix precip - Cant seem to make up her mind. Trending towards very little snow for us now, NBD unfortunately..Oh well, maybe next time.

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    1. You're an idiot snowdog, a heavy NNE wind is going to play right into lake enhancement. 4-6 for sure on the low end. I will be busy plowing that's for sure. Go back into your dutch oven, you contradict yourself all the time!

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    2. That is why they call it lake effect snow; I know from when I used to leave down by the Lake. A couple of inches in the Metro can sometimes mean 4-7 inches down by the lake. Guess you never lived by the lake before.

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  17. ^ Above snowdog post is the imposter snowdog. I do not dutch oven myself, nor do I like the smell of my own farts!

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  18. Oh boy here we go again. J.M. isn't Jim keeping you busy enough this winter with site work. :)

    By the way we have an imposter aboard again. I didn't call snowdog an idiot.

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  19. That was not me above. That was the imposter Snowdog. I picked up about .5" last night here in Gananda.

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  20. Just popping in to say I am enjoying the snow today and that this blog has hit a new level of ridiculous this year.

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  21. We had a dusting in Avon last night. I had to laugh at the "LOWEST AMOUNTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY" comment from the NWS. Always true. If they say 1-5" we get 1.

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  22. I agree Jo-Sef. This blog use to be a great place to come get the 'inside' scoop on what the weather could bring in the coming days & weeks. It provided a nice getaway from all the snow-haters on facebook. But now these comments are just a bunch of seemingly whiny 12 year old's who are desperate for attention. I think I'll be sticking to just reading the main blog posts now, since the only commenter that provides anything remotely close to value now, is CCCC. News 8 should really consider either forcing every user to have a verified/registered account (easy setting they could change), or just disable the blog commenting all together.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 12, 2015 at 9:00 PM

      Hey…I occasionally have something smart to offer!

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  23. Having more rational commenters automatically reduces the troll-to-human ratio. Just saying. Anyway here are the latest spotter reports:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

    Looks like a general 1-3 inches so far, and with another batch on the way for this afternoon we should see the 2-4 inch outlook verify, although probably closer to the low end for most of us. KROC has received 0.13 inches of liquid equivalent thus far, so estimating based on a 10:1 ratio would bring the current snow total to 1.3 inches. A few inches of lake effect is still on tap for tonight through early tomorrow morning. Our inevitable January "thaw" (more like a cool-up as opposed to a true warm-up) still looks rather transient, probably lasting 5-6 days before a renewed negative EPO builds another ridge in the north Pacific. Still a strong signal for a storm system for the middle of next week, although that signal got a little murkier since yesterday with the Euro ensemble mean now hinting at a Miller B coastal transfer being a distinct possibility (but strictly a possibility, nothing more).

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  24. 12z GFS has that storm OTS for middle of next week. Not trying to be negative but for snow lovers things do not look good for the next week to 10 days. I am starting to worry about snow lovers not getting a lot of snow this winter but we will have to wait and see.

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    1. At 06z it had a GLC transferring to a coastal. Meanwhile the pGFS shows a flat wave across PA while the Euro has a strong storm near Bermuda, one run after it depicted a GLC transferring to a coastal. This thing is way too far out in time to be living and dying by the operational models. Ensembles FTW.

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  25. We've had about 2" in the NE corner of Perinton. The absence of wind letting the snow stick to the trees is a thing of beauty.

    Andy

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    1. I agree. Had a spectacular walk with the dog this morning. Nobody else on the trail..light snow falling and not so cold cold I had to cover every square inch of skin. Went twice as far as normal.

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  26. Nice snowfall in Hamlin today all of 3 inches so far and still snowing lightly with a possible 2-4 more over night. It is sure nice to get some snow without the wind every once in a while. Quick glance at models 12Z ECMWF and GFS look much different than previous runs with active weather this weekend into early next week. Not nearly as warm as early forecasted either. It is early but maybe next week will be more wintery than previously thought.

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  27. What today is not wintery enough for you.

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  28. Today is most certainly wintry enough. Always nice when these sticky wet snowfalls aren't large enough to devastate the power grid, so that everything looks like a postcard and no one has to live in the dark. Official airport number so far is 2.5 inches, with 2-4 inches of fluff on the way. The wind won't be nearly as nasty as last week so the cold will be easier to handle, although it'll still be a tad breezy.

    That previously strong signal for a storm during the middle of next week got a whole lot murkier this afternoon. Try finding it in the Euro ensemble mean from this afternoon (spoiler alert: you won't be able to). Most members of the equally muddled GFS ensemble depict a system in widely varying locations, so my money is still on some sort of organized system tracking through the lower 48 despite today's changes. What hasn't changed is the relative briefness of our cool-up. We probably won't be heading back into the deep freeze anytime soon, more like average winter chill once the cool-up is over. I think any real cold will wait until the final few days of the month.

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  29. Whats with all the Dutch Oven talk again this winter? Is it only done in the winter? I cracked a rat under my covers in the summer once too ya know...

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    1. Some anon has an unhealthy obsession with Snowdog and farts.

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  30. 2.5 inches in Gananda. Not a lot of snow but it sure is beautiful.

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  31. I'd say about 2-3 here in Farmington. Enough to finally cover all the grass at least and sled on.

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  32. Guessing a bit over 2 inches in Webster. Idk, all I really care about is that it finally looks like January.

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  33. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 12, 2015 at 8:57 PM

    We have got about 3-4" in Penfield.

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  34. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 12, 2015 at 9:10 PM

    Quick thought about our naysayers…did some math today (Andy would be proud). Let's say we get the average five significant (6"+) non-lake event snow events. Let's say they are about 10 hours in duration, on average. That is 50 hours of snow during a season worth of winter. So, since winter lasts three months (~12/20 to ~3/20), which is about 90 days. 24 hours x 90 days = 2,160 hours of winter. 50 hours out of 2,160 hours of winter…which is about 2% of the time. Sooooo….why do some get so upset / discouraged / negative about the supposed lack of large snow events, when 98% of the time in a SOLID winter, they do not occur?

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  35. Lake effect never really got going last night, at least where I Live in Gananda. Only about .5" last night. I think the air was just too dry. Matt still says 40 on Sunday.

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  36. Love the sound of crunching snow under my boots this morning.

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  37. Hamlin ended up with around 5 inches for the total event. It is still snowing lightly, very fine snow.

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  38. The lake effect was a bit of a fail but I still awoke to a small additional accumulation this morning. Light snow has been going all morning but it should end pretty soon. Last night's GGEM shows a nice fantasy storm at the end of its run, too bad that information is pretty much useless right now.

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  39. This has got to be one of few places on earth where barometer can be at 30.8" and the sun isn't out-- in fact it's trying to snow. What a dismal place. It even defies physics to be dismal.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 13, 2015 at 6:27 PM

      You live in an area with heavy lake influence. That's why it will be 0 F in ROC tonight, not -10 F as it will be in SYR. Lake influence in winter = clouds, snow. Doubt you will be complaining when that same lake stabilizes air suppresses cloud development on warm summer days north of I-90. In fact, I believe ROC is one of the sunniest places in the US during July…thanks to that evil lake that makes for cloudy December and January days.

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