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Tuesday, January 6

SERIOUS COLD, LOCAL SNOW WEDNESDAY

Written By:  Scott Hetsko



A fresh shot of Arctic air will dive South out of Southern Ontario early on Wednesday morning.  There will enough lift just ahead of this boundary to produce a brief but intense squall line of snow between 6 and 8 a.m. tomorrow.  This snow will last less than one hour and may produce up to an inch of snow for most.  


Temperatures will take a nose dive during the morning so by lunch time we'll be in the single digits.  By evening, the air will feel well below zero with areas of multiband lake effect snow going North.  Some areas will get up to 5 or 6" of fluffy snow by early Thursday.  Another less impressive front will cross the region on Friday followed by more cold air on Saturday.

158 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update Scott! It looks like my house is in one of the 3"-6" areas on the east side of monroe cty. Hope we get it. I'm guessing I can sweep that light lake effect with a broom.

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  2. IMHO...

    Front: 1-2
    Lake effect: 2-4 for most, some get shafted with only an inch or two while others get surprised with up to 6
    Clipper: 2-3

    I really hope we cash in because most of next week looks bone dry to me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What else is new. Cold air but no storms. Just weak little clippers with wimpy lake effect. Boring winter.

      Delete
    2. 1) We've already had a storm.
      2) Tomorrow is going to feel like a mini-storm of sorts. Not boring or wimpy.

      Delete
  3. Where are the storms????

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  4. I do have to say it will get cold but no where near last years PV. Minus 10-15 WC does not approach a few days we had last year. Tomorrow will be NBD and the next few weeks on the models look pretty much storm free.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Tomorrow will be NBD..."
      Because -15 wind chills and a heavy squall during rush hour is NBD.

      "...and the next few weeks on the models look pretty much storm free."
      "The models are always completely accurate in depicting entire two-week period." - No One Ever

      Delete
    2. If that is what you call a big deal then we have really lowered our standards in Rochester for big deal winter weather.

      Delete
    3. It's not a "big deal" in the sense that we all need to stock up on milk and bread, but calling it NBD is to imply that everything will be smooth sailing tomorrow. Which it won't be, it will be rather bumpy at times.

      Delete
  5. I'm going to go out on a limb and call a storm during the week of MLK day. When the pattern relaxes and reloads. Not going to ask you to mark that down though.

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    Replies
    1. "When the pattern relaxes and reloads."

      That's actually the reason I left room in my earlier post by saying MOST of next week looks bone dry. The expected pattern relaxation could provide a nice window for a storm to turn northward, either as the cold recedes or as it returns. I won't be surprised if that limb remains intact.

      Delete
  6. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=Webster%20NY&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Advisory&lat=43.2151&lon=-77.4133

    ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
    4 AM EST THURSDAY...
    ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
    10 AM EST THURSDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
    SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
    EST THURSDAY.

    * LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

    * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
    WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN
    PERSISTENT BANDS.

    * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

    * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW.

    * IMPACTS...A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK ON
    WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE
    EFFECT SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY
    POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES LEADING TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL. BITTERLY
    COLD WIND CHILLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED
    SKIN.

    Not the end of the world, but certainly no walk in the park either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The NWS always over estimates snow totals. We will be lucky if we see 4" total.

      Delete
    2. I think you've exhausted your "baseless statement" quota for the night Mr. Anon E. Moose.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2015 at 8:54 PM

      Where the he&^ is that warm up next week? Did it disappear? (I have not looked at TT website to check…just not seeing it in any long rangers)

      Delete
  7. When we say that a few inches of snow and cold temps and some wind is a BIG deal in Rochester than we have lowered our standards. This winter has had one storm so far and we got lucky with it as it overproduced. Last year at this time we already had 50". We are only at 26" right now, which is 8" below normal. It has not snowed much at all since that December storm and even with that storm we were still below normal in snow for December.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "When we say that a few inches of snow..."
      4 to 8 inches is not "a few inches."

      "...and cold temps and some wind..."
      40 mph gusts isn't "some wind."

      "...is a BIG deal in Rochester..."
      It isn't. It's also not "NBD."

      I have no idea what you're getting at with the rest of this post. Yes we get it this isn't last winter, oh me oh my what a travesty.

      Delete
  8. Wow CCCC that write up from the NWS you posted is a lot different that what Scott posted? Very surprised because usually the NWS out of Buffalo is late to the party for Rochester. I think the snow will over achieve and the wind chills will be more towards minus 20 Thursday morning.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some areas will definitely overachieve. Some other areas will definitely underachieve. Nature of the lake effect beast.

      Delete
  9. Thank you for keeping things in perspective CCCC and bob. These "cry me a river" posts are really getting old. But what keeps me coming back is my curiosity with the weather and the daily posts from CCCC that roast these anon posters. Thank you for the time you put into this blog, I can say from my perspective that without your knowledge and humor this blog would be a little less fun and enjoyable. No offense to anyone out there but please stop acting like its a conspiracy that snow eludes us and just move to where they get pummeled if you want :-)

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    Replies
    1. Why thank you Mr. Farmington. I'm afraid the anonymous whiners (and the not-so-anonymous ones) aren't going to quit their whining anytime soon, they're like an incurable STD. But much like a festering genital wart, we must learn to cope with and accept their unpleasant existence upon our collective weenie, for it is the only weenie we have to share amongst ourselves.

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    2. CCCC this response is really uncalled for and not needed on the blog. You can be funny at times but you do also cross the line of appropriateness often. Not sure making fun of STDs is away to accept the nice compliment by Farmington but do what you like.

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    3. I'm sure Farmington will appreciate it anyway. Crossing lines is kind of my thing.

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    4. Good to know because I thought pretending to know weather was your thing?

      Delete
    5. CCCC is smart. Exuberant. Well versed in model. And adds a ton to the blog. But he is very immature as well.

      I have a feeling Scott would (does? ) appreciate the CCCC brand of humor. But Scott learned to keep his humor on air strictly PG.

      CCCC is informative. Funny. But would be banned by the FCC to sattelite radio during his first week.

      Delete
    6. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2015 at 8:58 PM

      I like it. CCCC, not the STDs. Would also prefer to keep my weenie to myself. Apparently, my wife agrees.

      Delete
    7. I hereby graciously accept the Internet Manchild Award courtesy of MC Speadsheet Guy :P

      Delete
  10. There is light snow happening right now.

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  11. I am confident that the burst of snow with the cold front will not disappoint with a quick couple of inches. I am concerned the LES will disappoint. I remember many occasions where very strong wind have crushed LES forecasts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The extreme delta T's could mitigate that concern. Additionally I would imagine that tomorrow's lake effect will consist largely of low-topped convective rolls and thus won't be as susceptible to shear.

      Delete
    2. Yes the instability is going to be extreme. It wasn't the wind shear that concerned me, it is more the residence time of the wind. Maybe the instability can over come the short time the wind crosses the lake. It also concerns me here in Hamlin being so close to the lake doesn't allow any added lift that further inland locations receive along and south of RT104 receive because of friction land creates.

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    3. I experienced first-hand, exactly one year ago what extreme instability can do. Massive amounts of shear plus a half-frozen Lake Erie and dry polar air, yet we still had inch per hour rates for extended stretches of time. Obviously we aren't coming anywhere close to that tomorrow, but it serves as an example of the effects of short residence time being mitigated by instability. Maybe the instability doesn't win out this time, but then we also have a partial Huron connection to contend with. It'll be interesting to see which side wins the fight: mitigators or enablers.

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    4. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2015 at 9:02 PM

      I've only lived here for 1.25 winters, but it seems as though Penfield (east of 250) gets more snow than areas north, and closer to the lake. I am guessing this has to do with our elevation (~520 ft) compared to the lower elevations north of 104. As you guys mentioned, lift and friction from elevation and geographic features is one of many factors that enhance LES.

      Delete
    5. I can attest, it always seems like Penfield manages to win the grand prize for every storm. Good combination of uplift and proximity to the lake.

      Delete
    6. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2015 at 9:13 PM

      Every synoptic event we seem be on the maximum end of the range of what falls in the area. We got nearly 20" from the storm a month ago. Only places that exceeded that were south and east of here. Again, only been here 1.25 winters, but I believe that has been the case for EVERY event I've witnessed here. As for more proof of the land on lake effect outcomes, I also noticed that when I lived in Sodus Point, places to the south as elevation climbed often got higher LES totals that the Point. Rose in particular.

      Delete
    7. Not even as much elevation as it is the land itself slowing the wind down enough to back it up, giving it no where to go but up. It seems like it only takes about five mile to do so. It often snows harder on the south side of Hamlin than the north with a NW wind. It is different with very light winds or winds on a WNW direction.

      Delete
    8. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 7, 2015 at 6:20 AM

      Agreed, but elevation is a huge factor because it increases that friction you refer to. My camp in Oswego County is about 10 miles east of I-81. Despite being in the throws of the same lake effect band, Mexico and Pulaski will get half the snow as the area near my cabin. They are at 300-400 feet while my place is at 700 feet. As soon as the elevation starts to climb east of I-81, the snow totals start increasing significantly. On the actual Tug Hill itself, elevations reach 2100 feet. Same band drops twice as much snow at 1800-2100 ft as compared to the lower slope of the Hill, which is at 700-800 ft.

      Delete
  12. I am also surprised that the NWS left Orleans out of the LES advisories. Many times a connection to the upper lakes will form to the west of ROC in Orleans, Genesee, and Wyoming, counties.

    ReplyDelete
  13. KBUF is getting the screws yet again. First they were on the wrong side of "The Cliff" back in November, then the 240 flow event back on NYE got sheared away, now a heavy band is sitting nearly stationary just a few miles south. You want to talk about frustration, imagine having a stake of any kind in KBUF winning the golden snowball contest...

    ReplyDelete
  14. Yes it will be interesting to see how it plays out as it always is with LES. The wild card will be a connection to either Georgian Bay or Lake Huron. I will say I am hoping for 4-8 in Hamlin, but I am expecting more like 2-3. Time will tell until then I will take the cold that is a start.

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  15. The high resolution Nam continues to show the Huron and Georgian Bay connections well west of the Rochester Area. If I had to guess western counties will benefit more from an upper connection than Monroe or Wayne. I think Chris in Penfield could end up being a Monroe county winner. In land areas will benefit with added lift.

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  16. Heavy snow in Irondequoit now.

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  17. Unimpressive arctic front. We will be lucky to see an inch out of this. Very narrow and moving fast.

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  18. About a 1/2" in Gananda. The fromt fell apart.

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  19. It was a joke and NBD as I said last night. But that was debated by the all knowing CCCC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah bitter cold, frost bitting wind driven snow, that causes poor visibility and slippery roads that result in accidents all over town is NBD.

      Keep on being a Bloviating a$$!

      Delete
  20. KW was literally jumping up and down with his "hug your honey" alerts and saying that it is great weather for those who make snow. Gag.

    Happy Christmas to the Orthodox people out there. At least you got a white Christmas.

    ReplyDelete
  21. About 3 inches in about half an hour this morning in Hamlin.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Had about a quick 3-1/2 inches. With the wind and snow this morning; agree the visibility to low this morning. Be careful out there as salt does not work when it is this cold (black ice). You know it is really cold when you are walking, and the snow crunches under your boots.

    ReplyDelete
  23. It was NBD compared to the hype a lot of people were making including people on this blog. It was a bit of a pain to drive in if you had to during rush hour but that's about it. It gets cold in January so the temps aren't a shocker either.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure how you read any of this as hype. But if you can't handle the discussion, then just stay out of this blog!

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    2. It was total hype by a few on this blog. Especially the ones ripping on another guy for saying it was going to be NBD. If cold weather with a couple inches of snow and wind is a big deal for Rochester then this city has gotten soft.

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    3. No one said it was going to be a big deal. But if you had any difficulty driving this morning, or if you find any difficulty driving later this afternoon, then it still isn't NBD. A few flurries is NBD, a minor light snow with no wind is NBD, a quarter inch of rain is NBD. Getting blasted with low visibility and slick roads is not NBD, it's a medium-sized deal.

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    4. I agree Anon 12:29 said. Rochester must be getting soft then.

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    5. Anon 12:29 (Bob?), It was not hyped by anyone on this blog. We got about what was said by the pros and those on this blog. If you can't read this blog without getting your panties all in a wad then why don't you just go away!

      Delete
    6. Sounds like the only one's who got their panties in a wad were the ones who think this morning was a "big deal" or "medium deal"

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  24. What did the airport record. I bet not even an inch like most of us,

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  25. Who was expecting a lot of snow? I didn't hear about a lot of snow from anywhere. I'm just amazed at how well they had the front timed. They said it would come through at 6 AM and dang if it didn't come through at 6 AM.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed Caledonia. It seems that anon 826 & 939 is the only one with compression issues.

      Delete
    2. In the post, never stated that it was this huge deal; just stating what snow had fallen where I live and with the drive in at 6:30pm -- just wanting people to drive safely and watch for black ice as salt does not work with temps this low. Just sending out good karma to everyone to drive safe.

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    3. Sorry meant 6:30am this morning.

      Delete
  26. Spotter reports indicate that a general 1 to 1.5 inches fell from the front. Which is very close to what was predicted. The airport recorded 1 inch. I personally woke up very early this morning to see the squall line "fall apart" to the tune of less than a few hundred feet of visibility. Here are the spotter reports:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

    Anyone who wants to track the lake effect by stressing themselves silly over radar trends can just forget about it. KBUF radar will fail to detect the low-topped narrow bands that traverse our area. I still think 2-4 additional inches looks good at this point, mostly later this afternoon into the evening. The updated LES Advisory says 5-10, but that's way overdone IMO. I also think a general 2-3 inches with the clipper still looks good. The next period of interest looks like late next week as the cold relaxes and a system possibly tries to come up the coast. That situation will remain nebulous until after this weekend, so it isn't worth much discussion right now.

    ReplyDelete
  27. 1" whole inch. Wow. What are we going to do with it all. Lake effect having a hard time forming as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I find your nebulous posting shallow and pedantic

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    2. Like the snow pack?

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  28. For those who live winter -- it looks like a snow globe outside.

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  29. So does the lake effect look like it's having a hard time now? Don't think so buckaroos. Nothing steady but there have been occasional moderate/heavy bursts embedded within overall lighter rates. The wind is whipping it around and briefly lowering visibility down to less than 100 feet. Don't even know how much I have so far, probably at least a few inches though.

    I'm only stopping here briefly for now, I'll be back again in a few hours.

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  30. Sorry CCC. This lake effect is wimpy. Barely covering the grass here in Western Wayne county Maybe 1.5" so far. Come on. If we get excited over a few inches. This is very unimpressive to say the least.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But Snowdog, what is the point in calling the snow wimpy and acting like it is so depressing? I'm just curious why you always have this negative spin on things? My glass is half full and it makes the day go so much better!

      Delete
    2. Well gee Snowdog, we don't all live in Western Wayne County first of all. I was in Greece earlier and there is zero exposed grass to be found anywhere. Second, the wind is probably making the snowfall look a lot less than it actually is. Third, as Farmington already said, who cares if it's not a big storm or even a moderate storm? It's SNOWING, can't you at least be happy about that? I thought your name was Snowdog, not High-standards-dog. But you act like it may as well be nothing unless we get buried. Never understood it.

      Delete
  31. 13 districts in Syracuse have already announced they are on a 2 hour delay tomorrow including the city school district. It is funny how a new WC chart is used and the wind chill values are not as low with the new chart as compared to the old one. Did the human body cold tolerance change? I also find it funny how the Syracuse City district does close and our city district now basically never closes because why? I think I know but our city scores are not even better than the Syracuse city school district. If you want to look at how the WC chart has changed go to syracuse.com and you will find it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last year for the infamous "Polar Vortex" day, I took the new formula for wind chill, differenciated it with respect to temp and with respect to wind speed to see how quickly the wind quickly wind chill changes.

      As you might expect. Temperature is more important than wind. If you'd like to see my Excel file, click on my name or go here

      https://app.box.com/s/0bjatx6yhpw68jupv5yv

      Delete
  32. By the way, no one ever claimed that the amount of snow would be the biggest factor. It was always going to be the combination of snow and wind, which did in fact create spots of difficult travel.

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  33. Quite a few inches in irondequoit...

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  34. Only 2" in Gananda total since yesterday. The airport only picked up 1.5 I believe. The lake effect underperformed. The NWS saod 4-8 and I said way too high. That was the case. There may have been a few that picked up 3-4" but even that is wimpy. The clipper tomorrow will give aninch maybe 2 and than lake effect i the standard belts. Next wek looks mostly dry. The snow drought will continue.

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  35. Cry us a river and get over it!!! :(

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  36. Not crying HP. JUst stating facts.

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  37. With the wind yesterday I really don't know how anyone could get an accurate snow reading. It snowed fairly decently in Fairport yesterday and last evening and I still can see a bit of grass. The wind just scrubbed it away.

    Andy

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  38. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fact

    1. something that actually exists; reality; truth
    2. something known to exist or to have happened
    3. a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true
    4. something said to be true or supposed to have happened

    Nothing about next week is a fact. It's all just maybes and what-ifs, just a few of many things that make weather interesting. If you find yourself entirely hung up on snowfall numbers and big storms and lack of big storms, unable to appreciate the beauty of what lies before you in present reality, then I strongly suggest finding a new hobby. It looks and feels like winter out there, which is all that really matters. And by the way, you can't mask your malcontented whining by hiding behind "facts."

    Andy is completely correct, no one is going to get an accurate measurement with all of the wind having scrubbed away at the accumulated snow cover. No doubt that the NWS was too high with their forecasted numbers, but they were an outlier in the first place. We still look good for another 2-3 inches from the clipper tonight, and if the other global models follow along with the latest GFS and pGFS (doubtful) then we may have something to track early next week as well. This is the only weather you have, try to enjoy it.

    ReplyDelete
  39. CCCC does the 12z GFS show something about a week from now up the coast? This has been pretty consistent for several models as a possible big storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not anymore. Lost it completely. The foreign models still have an organized storm though. I wouldn't worry about it right now.

      Delete
  40. Do not worry about it in like there is no possibility or it is far away? 12z Euro says what?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. - Option number 2.
      - Euro says storm, but offshore.

      Delete
  41. I hope we can get a medium event out of it.. might have a weenie roast in here when people start seeing mid 40's in the extended.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What time frame? At least according to wunderground nothing above 31 at least through 1/17.

      Andy

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    2. Don't know that it even will get that warm or how long it will last. We are going to reshuffle and I'm assuming we get a "thaw" in between. Around MLK day is when I'm guessing.

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    3. Mid 40's is just wild speculation on my part, too. Just saying I hope we get something at least semi satisfying in case something like that actually happens.

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    4. Gotcha and agree.
      Thanks
      Andy

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    5. God forbid we get a cutter storm during the reload, otherwise some of the more impatient weenies might go postal. I definitely wouldn't bet against one though, if anything I would lean towards just such an outcome...unfortunately.

      Delete
    6. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 8, 2015 at 7:45 PM

      That upper atmospheric conditions are not of the variety that lock and hold cold air for long stretches. I am surprised we will have it for two weeks straight! Two straight winters of a mostly +NAO, yet with extended cold spells. Shows you how much influence what happens in the Pacific affects us here.

      Delete
    7. Cutter storms are the norm this year.

      Delete
  42. Initially it appeared that next Monday's overrunning system would remain well to the south, but today's trends increase the probability of another light snowfall occurring in our region early next week. Meanwhile the Euro ensembles have a strong signal for the late week system. Members are mostly offshore right now, but it's still very early.

    The newest run of the Euro seasonal model indicates a cold February. Meanwhile there is strong ensemble consensus that the AO will reach at least neutral territory by mid month or shortly thereafter, driven largely by more favorable tropical forcing in the MJO domain (i.e. not phases 4 5 or 6). Still no sign of a PV-destroying SSW, but when the vortex does re-consolidate it will be in a much weaker state than before. Judah Cohen now has his eggs in the February basket for the PV-killer, but that may just be desperation on his part. In any event, the weenie roast is on hold for now.

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 8, 2015 at 7:47 PM

      If you want snow, SnowDog and various anonymites, move/visit Oswego Co. We have got three feet at camp. My plow guy has been busy for several hours per day, every day, all week. They have not had a full day of school since before Xmas. Up there, cold practically guarantees snow.

      Delete
    2. They are going to get more feet of snow tomorrow through Saturday while we get an inch or two.

      Delete
  43. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 8, 2015 at 7:52 PM

    Hey CCCC -

    There's a potential "cold air drainage" event that could occur Sat night/Sun morning in Watertown and surrounding areas. Scott mentioned it on the 6:00 show. KW talks about it sometimes. Only happens once or twice per year. With a deeply entrenched arctic air mass, and a deep, fresh snowpack on Tug Hill, the cold air will actually "fall" off the Hill down into the Black River Valley and other lower elevations around the slope of the Hill. A light east wind will kick up as air comes in behind the cold air that is draining off the Hill. Really neat, microclimate affect. Watertown will often hit -30 F with this phenomenon, while no other city/town outside of the area will be below 0. This has happened at my camp too - hit -25 F once. Man, was the floor cold!! (no foundation).

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    Replies
    1. I think I first heard of that phenomenon last winter, might've been during the second major arctic outbreak. It is indeed pretty neat. As for moving to Oswego County, I have strong doubts that my college major will afford me any job opportunities there. Otherwise I'd gladly move out there in a heartbeat since it seems like every time someone sneezes they get another foot of lake fluff. Sometimes I wonder what things would be like if I had gone to SUNY Oswego to pursue meteorology instead of going to RIT to pursue computer engineering, but while I was choosing a major I was far more interested in big time snowstorms than I was in actual meteorology. Plus my high school seemingly tried as hard as it could to push engineering onto its students, so I was heavily influenced by that. No regrets though, I love my major. But I digress, this is not a "CCCC's Childhood" blog...

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    2. I enjoyed the three years that I lived in campus there in Oswego (2000-2003). We certainly got a lot of snow and one good ice storm. It was funny how they had a schedule of when you had to move your vehicle to another parking lot so they could plow it. Cars would get stuck so often it wasn't funny. But there were no ropes along the sidewalks that I always heard rumors of! It was always windy though.

      Delete
    3. "It was always windy though. "

      Hey, just like RIT. Best part is that the wind always seems to be directly in your face no matter which direction you're going -_-

      I also heard that the Oswego campus is near somewhat of a convergence zone, so they usually get less lake effect than the nearby city.

      Delete
  44. Last season we had a frontal passage enhanced by lake Erie that happened just before rush hour, it made for the seasons worst driving conditions. The 2 hours of snow and wind gave us 3-4 inches with 40MPH winds, conditions were worse that morning than during last March's low end blizzard. Sometimes these smaller events are higher impact events because of the timing.

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    Replies
    1. I was amazed at how much more prolific Lake Erie was for us last season than Lake Ontario. In fact, we've experienced a pretty severe lack of action off of Lake Ontario in recent seasons, typically half of our 100 inches per season comes from lake effect and the great majority of it is from Ontario. I think it's due to a lack of prominent high latitude blocking. No big high across the North Atlantic to keep cold cyclones locked in place and drill a sustained moist NW flow down from Canada, so the mean flow ends up more zonal most of the time and promotes more of a westerly flow instead. I've noticed that all of our recent major events featured blocking in the North Atlantic at some point, while many of the major W or WNW flow outbreaks in that time have occurred without such a feature, hence this little pet theory of mine.

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  45. Hamlin has done fairly well with Ontario LES in the past 2 seasons. A WNW flow can benefit all of Orleans county shoreline and Hamlin in Monroe county. This winter has started a little slow in Hamlin, but there is a lot of season left. I am not worried yet.

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  46. Scot predicted 110-130 this year. We are only at 29 so far. We need to pick u another 81" between now and March to reach the lower end of his prediction. That would be 27" for January, Feb and March. I do not think that will happen the way things are going.

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    Replies
    1. Never a good idea to bet on persistence. All we need is one big month and Scott's prediction becomes plausible again. February has been very kind to us lately.

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    2. Do you really think that it is possible to pick up 81+ inches of snow between now and the end of March? Might want to hope for the snow event that Buffalo had.

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    3. If we fall into a pattern with a lot of storms then it's very doable.

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  47. I honestly could care less about snowfall prediction and if we are or if we are not going to get to them. It is going to snow tomorrow FOR SURE!!!! I do know that. I am going to bed now, because it is going to be an early morning. This is possibly going to be a HIGH impact event on rush hour traffic at least on the west side. The 00Z NAM 4KM looks good for Hamlin to be in advisory level snowfall by 8am. We will see but it is enough to get me excited. I don't need the NWS approval to make my own conclusions, we will see.

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    Replies
    1. Couldn't care less. If you could care less then that means that you do care about the snowfall prediction.

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  48. Deep DGZ with the approaching clipper + cold temps = decent ratios. Too bad actual rates won't be terribly impressive.

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  49. Heavy snow just west of Hamlin. It is snowing hard enough for us to plow and salt but not like I expected yet, oh well I'll see what happens.

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    Replies
    1. So you are saying u picked up 3" of snow last night from this clipper??? Is 3" the determining factor on when you plow?

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  50. I see the NWS posted LES advisories for Monroe and Livingston for 3-5 inches before 10am. Mostly for west side of the counties.

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  51. As I thought the Clipper was a non producer. I said we would maybe get an inch. I picked up .25" at most. Now we watch the lake effect areas get pounded while we maybe get some light snow Monday. That will be a 1-2 incher at most.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Move instead of complain year after year!

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  52. Buffalo getting pounded right now. Heavy snow for the last 3 hours. Rochester, nothing.

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  53. If you are traveling the Thruway from Henrietta to the PA State Line -- just learned the Thruway is closed. Safe travel to anyone who is headed that way. They must of learned from the Buffalo storm, and at least folks won't be in their cars for 20-36 hours waiting for assistance. Also feel bad for kids and families with the multiple times some schools have had to close -- Winter and/or Spring Breaks might be cancelled or shortened -- only so many snow days for Schools to use. For those who like the snow, cold, and overall Winter. As they say on the Blog -- ENJOY!

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  54. I must admit that it feels like forever ago that we had a decent storm..hopefully things will change around here soon!!!

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  55. Well anon 7:33I think we have to turn our attention to later next week. It should be watched perhaps a decent storm may be coming.

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  56. Very snowy in Hamlin, 3-4 inches now we get some wind. Looks and feels very much like winter here, keep it coming.

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  57. Travel is pretty slow -- took almost 1-hour to get to work this morning vs. 15 minutes. Safe travel to those out on the roads right now; especially with the wind and blowing snow. Don't travel on the Thruway if you are heading west or south -- hearing from folks that it is really bad.

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  58. I'll have to look this up..but I bet a few of our memorable winters became memorable because of a relatively short period of time. 2-4 weeks out of the winter made it famous in other words.. while the rest of the winter wasn't notable at all.

    Point being.. February is usually the bigger storm month I believe. So if we get a stretch of, say 27 days, of heavy winter weather this whole year would take on a different vibe. If we got a major storm that people talk about years later..nobody would remember how "boring" the other 3 months of the snow season was. I hate hearing myself but it is true..long way to go yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's exactly it, most memorable winters are defined by a 2 to 4 week stretch. Those wall-to-wall blockbusters are very rare, perhaps once every 20 or 30 years. Even 1976-77 shut off for the most part in early February.

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  59. Definitely not a "nothing" deal where I'm at. Once again I can't get an accurate gauge on how much fell because of the wins, but I would estimate another inch or two. Another nickel for the jar. Our next snow opportunity definitely looks like early next week with an overrunning type event. Extended period of light snow adding up to a few inches, just like all of our recent events. Unfortunately I have to lean slightly towards a flatter out-to-sea result for late next week. I don't see much support for amplification outside of a weakly positive PNA. Obviously I hope that I'm overlooking something, or that something will change within the next several days (which very well might happen). The good news is that the NAO and AO look to continue nosediving after mid month.

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  60. I still cannot believe you are all exicted about an inch or two. Yike our standards have lowered here in Rochester. What did the airport report.

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    Replies
    1. We're talking about it, that doesn't mean we're excited. Would you rather we all sit here and gripe about lack of big storms and other things we can't control? Because that would be terrible.

      No official airport number yet, not expecting one until after 4pm.

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  61. This is snow:

    ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING
    EAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
    ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT BACK
    NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY BUT ADDITIONAL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The type of snow that we just don't get around here. Ever. Now if only there were better job opportunities in those tiny cow towns...

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  62. Now waiting for some to say, once again we miss out on the big snow events.

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    Replies
    1. Someone already said it.
      Andy

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  63. Caledonia/CCCC,
    I agree with both of you. Our memory tends to lock onto the unique or extreme events of the past and interpret past events as the norm. Total snowfall is irrelevant IMHO compared to having some decent snowfall events. If we have several strong snow storms in a winter season but only had 60" total it would probably be more memorable than the 100" winter with 1 storm and the rest coming 1"-2" at a time.

    With that said, I stand by my late December prediction of 75"-85" total for this winter and I even think we could be under 75", more like 65" ( I REALLY hope I'm wrong). However that doesn't mean it can't be a good Jan and February and with a few good storms it can still be a considered a great winter.

    If I could control the weather I'd have us get 30+" in each of Dec, Jan, Feb and then taper off in March and then sun and warm for April forward :)

    Andy

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  64. I'm home early because I'm pretty sure the ghost of Pigpen gave me a wet willy overnight, and now my right ear is probably infected. Yay -_-

    If the rest of January turns out to be a ratter then we probably won't get above average snow this season. Thing is that we're already almost halfway to 65 (or maybe exactly halfway pending today's airport total), and we still reasonably have a little more than 2 months left for storm opportunities, so I'm taking the over on that number. We would have to completely tank the rest of this month, then run slightly below average the rest of the way to finish below 65. But if we are truly that ill-fated this winter, then let the balance of our remaining quota be in the form of one huge blockbuster that makes its way into Rochester winter lore. Then this winter would be truly memorable for its unusual marriage of a historic storm and well below average snowfall. I'd actually welcome that sort of oddity with open arms.

    ReplyDelete
  65. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-model-update-7/40373194

    Me likey. Even the warmup won't play out smoothly the way things look right now.

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  66. Very quiet in the weather field not much happening for the next 10 days. I horrible winter for Rochester but after last year we all expected it.

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    Replies
    1. It's really not that bad. Last season really skewed everyone's perspectives I think. This season has had a more typical progression so far, although December did end up being one of the top 5 warmest nationwide. As of today our snowfall deficit is just over 6 inches. Meanwhile KBUF is running very close to average while KALY is actually running ABOVE average so far. A season like 2011-12 was far worse for a few reasons: the arrangement of large scale features in the upper troposphere signaled a very stable warm pattern that would be nigh impossible to break down, and we were running a snowfall deficit of around two feet by this point with no major storms. This winter has the potential to shift around, plus we had a major storm back in December and our current snowfall deficit can easily be reversed.

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  67. Strong signal on all three ensembles for a storm system in the central US during early MLK week. My guess is that it's ultimately going to be the cutter system that ends a rather abbreviated "thaw" period, although I would place it more towards the middle of the week due to systemic model bias of changing patterns too quickly. The GEFS mean has the AO tanking rapidly into negative territory right around that time period as well. The NAO, meanwhile, STILL refuses to go negative, but it still drops to near neutral and we can easily work with that. PNA goes to near neutral while the EPO goes negative again after a short stint in positive territory. Meanwhile there is still disagreement regarding late next week, which is to be expected at this time range. What's unusual is that the GFS suite actually has a phased, amplified storm close to the coast, while the foreign guidance has a more progressive unphased idea, completely counter to what we would typically expect. That reversal happened with the storm last weekend, which ultimately went the way of the GFS solution. Will the same thing happen again here? We'll see, but probably not until after the weekend.

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  68. With all due respect CCCC it is just we keep hearing a pattern shift and favorable teleconnections are showing and that keeps getting pushed back week after week. Again there is only so much time for winter and before you know it the end of March will be here. It really is a guess game and not an exact science. Just think this will be a winter with well below average snowfall for Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except it doesn't keep getting pushed back and you have no clue what you're talking about...with all due respect. This week was wintry, just like everyone was saying it would be.

      "It really is a guess game and not an exact science."
      "Just think this will be a winter with well below average snowfall for Rochester."

      Did you contradict yourself on purpose? Of course you did...

      http://imgur.com/OSaNF1E

      Delete
  69. The ground is snow covered in Hamlin, it is cold, the wind is blowing the roads are drifting. More snow on its way early next week with below freezing temps all next week. Looks like typical winter weather to me. We are only slightly behind snowfall average. CCCC I am with you people have to relax. Start to finish cold and snow all winter is not normal in Western NY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except that we have not had a decent snowfall since early December. You are by the lake so u get a little more snow. 95% of us do not see that snow from the lake. The weak weak weak system on Monday will maybe give us an inch or 2 if we are lucky and then the rest of the week is boring. No storms in site. By the end of next week we will be over 10" below normal if not more.

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    2. http://i.imgur.com/ugyd89O.jpg

      You need to R-E-L-A-X

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  70. I do not get how on 10 website Wednesday minus 2 and on this site 22 degree low for Wednesday? Huge discrepancy?

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  71. Channel 8 has to adjust their numbers for Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The NWS states temps may struggle to get out of the single digits Tuesday with lows Wednesday morning possibly below freezing.

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  72. The 12z runs for GFS and Euro are both horrible. There is nothing for the next 7-10days of any consequence. We just have to hope February is an epic weather month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "The operational models are always completely accurate in the 7-10 day range." - No One Ever

      Delete
  73. This winter has sucked so far. Give me a break. If it was not for that 1 storm in Early December we would be over 16" below normal. We have had 1 storm. It has been 4 weeks since then and we have seen nothing significant since. Just 1 inch here and 1 inch there. Nickel and dime crap. Actually less than nickel and dime. We are not getting even the lake effect this year, We have ben spectators as usual. No storms in sight except for this little weak one coming Monday. Maybe 1-2 inches. NBD. Buffalo will be the BIG winner this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gotta file that complaint to Mother Nature's customer service department if you really want something better.

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  74. From the NWS: Quite weather all next week.

    A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
    TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS THE SURFACE HIGH
    SLIDES EASTWARD AND BRINGS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK ACROSS THE
    AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SOME SYNOPTIC
    PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH.

    ReplyDelete
  75. By the way, we're still on track for a soft whimper early next week so it's not entirely quiet.

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  76. Gosh this blog takes a dump when there is not a bomb on the models. How many times can we complain about this winter so far? Could be worse, your roof could have collapsed and then basement flooded like BUF, or maybe you would like your house to fall off it's foundation from a mudslide? Or any of the numerous bad weather headlines we have heard. I think we r just fine and if you can be patient something will get stirred up eventually and if not then we will greet spring with open arms. It's like when buffalo lost four super Bowls in a row, people kept buying tickets. You gotta billieve otherwise life sucks. My $.02. Rant over :-)

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  77. There will be a Blizzard in The Flower City within 2 months. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  78. NWS is saying probably 2-4 Monday. Maybe we can get a small lake response Monday evening to keep the totals rising in Hamlin. We will get there a little at a time. A nickel here and a dime there perfect.

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  79. Nickel and Dime 1 inch at a time pays the best. Sorry to all the complainer's on here, but I do like to poke at the hornets nest on occasion.

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  80. I will now deliver my snowmobile and give YOU 45 bucks to take it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sounds great... where do I pick it up?

      Delete

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