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Monday, January 5

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEK

Western New York has seen a relatively mild winter season so far with just a few bouts of snow and cold but things are changing in a big way this week.

Mother Nature will deliver a brutal punch of frigid air that will last for an extended period of time and if you've been outside in the past 24 hours you've already noticed a big change compared to just a few days ago.

High temperatures the next few days will struggle to climb out of the teens but gusty winds up to 40 mph at times will drop wind chill values below zero. Initially, a westerly wind direction will favor heavy lake effect snows east of the lakes and away from Rochester. We'll see some occasional flurries and light snow but not much accumulation.

A secondary arctic front will plunge south across the region on Wednesday bringing in a true blast of bitterly cold air. We'll start off the day in the lower teens but fall close to zero by late afternoon.

The GFS forecast model is showing temperatures plummeting through the afternoon with many locations just a few degrees above zero by 6pm Wednesday:


Gusty winds over 40 mph along and behind this front will send wind chills values down to dangerous levels. Wind chills for many will be from -10F to -20F and in northeast New York and near the Adirondacks, wind chills will approach 30 to 40 below zero!



As winds switch to a northwesterly direction, this will favor muti-banded lake snows to develop south of Lake Ontario and impact areas around Rochester. Some of these bands could bring brief periods of heavy snow and reduced visibility. Limited moisture associated with this bitterly cold airmass will keep overall snow amounts light but some local areas could pick up several inches of snow if caught under a persistent snow band.

Stay tuned for more updates on the potential for snow and dangerously cold air.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones


46 comments:

  1. There's another clipper lurking for late this week as well. That one looks like it'll be further north than the more imminent one. This is a classic WNY nickel-and-dime pattern, and with the way this winter has gone so far none of the snow fans should even think about complaining.

    For the fourth day in a row, the ensemble teleconnection outlooks hint at a more favorable pattern for more substantial snow events after mid month (NAO dropping to neutral, AO dropping to neutral/negative, PNA rising to positive). Now see that I'm not predicting any actual snowstorm, just a better shot at one than the current pattern yields. Purely a probabilistic outlook at this point. But if that teleconnection arrangement verifies then our "classic January thaw" will be reduced to more of a moderation from the sort of frigidity this week will bring, but still rather cold. It'll be interesting to see if future ensemble runs take the NAO/AO down to negative for any appreciable amount of time.

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  2. * Weather Service forecasting computers to become 10 times more powerful in 2015 *
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/05/weather-service-forecasting-computers-to-become-10-times-more-powerful-in-2015/

    "By October this year, the capacity of the two National Weather Service (NWS) supercomputers will increase by nearly a factor of ten it said."
    “The US computer capacity will not surpass the European infrastructure without additional investment”

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    Replies
    1. Too bad the "new and improved" GFS hasn't verified any more reliably than its low-resolution counterpart so far...

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  3. Agreed CCCC, we are lucky to have this much snow so far this season with the way the pattern, MJO, and teleconnections have been for the past month...

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    1. That nor'easter in the middle of December really helped us out. So did Typhoon Nuri causing major havoc in November. All sorts of help from the Pacific, none whatsoever from the Atlantic. Been that way for awhile now, but perhaps the tides are about to make a slight turn...

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    2. Just clarifying, the nor'easter was able to happen because the PNA amplified so much. The storm itself came from the Atlantic, but the pattern that produced it was entirely Pacific-driven. Both the NAO and AO were ragingly positive.

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  4. Cold without snow is like cereal without milk. LOL. I could not think of any anology.

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    Replies
    1. Ski resorts and skiers would disagree with you!

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    2. Well then hallelujah, you're going to get snow this week. Tony the Tiger hath blessed thine sorry behind with milk for thine frosted flakes.

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  5. I need a foot of snow on the ground to ride my snowmobile.. it's still for sale. $20

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  6. Did anyone see the projected 12z GFS temps for the weekend of January 17th?

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  7. hope in the car to make the hour drive to oswego we have some lake effect snow over here rochesterians

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  8. No Farmington Snowlover it is reall,y really, really cold.

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  9. Ok I wasn't sure how to take your post since you seem to take the opposite road sometimes, but after reading the AFD it seems you called it for this week although I hate to admit it.

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    1. What, exactly, did he call? Not getting below 7 degrees this week? The NWS still has us getting down close to 0 Wednesday night. Very little snow this week? Well...

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010512/gfs_asnow_neus_21.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010512/gfsp_asnow_eus_21.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010512/gem_asnow_neus_20.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      ...wrong again. That last map only represents the next 60 hours by the way. The AFD talks about numerous small snow events that will add up over time this week. By the time we reach Saturday I can bet that Snowdog will have complained his way to a solid snowcover, and the rest of us should have decent totals as well. Nickels and dimes, they're worth a lot when you have enough of them.

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  10. Scott tonight said a few inches at most this week. 2 inches is what he said. That is wimpy snow in my book.

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    Replies
    1. If he really thinks that then he's in for a rude surprise IMO.

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  11. It snowed all day in Hamlin. The wind whipped it around so it had trouble accumulating on any surfaces, but it sure looked and felt like winter. I think the burst of snow Wednesday morning with the frontal passage alone will produce a few inches in the area, as an already strong LES band drops south onto the lake shore. I would be surprised if 2 inches was all we get in Hamlin as we already had a couple of wind whipped inches today.

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    Replies
    1. Beat me to the punch on the squall line lol. I agree though.

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  12. Wednesday morning may see a brief but intense squall push southward across the region. That alone could produce a quick inch or two, followed by modest lake effect and another clipper. This second clipper looks much better than tomorrow's system does, but still shouldn't amount to anything truly substantial on its own. Wednesday could be trickier than it looks at a glance, the amount of wind we're going to get will cause some blowing and drifting with even a few powdery inches on the ground.

    Squall line:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2015010512/wrf-nmm_ref_neus_45.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_14.png

    Lake effect:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_15.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_16.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_17.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_18.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015010518/nam4km_ref_neus_19.png

    Second clipper:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

    I feel that the high-res NAM provides a good picture of where the main areas of lake effect concern will be, regardless of whether its depicted amounts verify or not. And I used the GGEM for the clipper because I believe that its eventual track will be closest to that model's depiction (it's farther south than the other guidance and consensus clipper track depictions have a tendency to trend south in the medium range). I'm not entirely confident in any particular outcome for the squall line, those are always tricky. But there is clearly enough on our table to not settle upon the thought of a mere couple of inches for the entire week.

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  13. This darn lake effect, it's like rolling the dice at the casino, sometimes you get lucky. I guess as long as the poor grass gets covered completely this week it is fine in my book. It will be so cold we could use a leaf blower instead of snow blower!

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  14. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 5, 2015 at 9:06 PM

    Any thoughts on the QBO coming in MORE negative than expected (-25.5)? That will continue the dominant Pacific jet, interfering with the oscillation of the polar jet. Also, the MJO appears to be 50/50 on the upcoming January thaw and whether the end of January will be mild … or brutally cold.

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    Replies
    1. I never heard of anyone who expected the negative QBO to weaken in December. Odds still favor it weakening this month though. I'm not worried about the end of January or the MJO, right now there's no indication of it hanging around in torchy-torchland for too long, if at all. Also a reminder that the MJO has been in warm phases for the past ten days, yet we are currently staring down the barrel of a pronounced arctic outbreak.

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  15. Well if you love snow then this map will be like pure porn to you:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010600/gem_asnow_neus_40.png

    The GFS suite isn't quite as enthused:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010600/gfs_asnow_neus_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010600/gfsp_asnow_eus_41.png

    On a semi-unrelated note, I decided upon an impromptu mini road trip to Fulton not long after my 7:43 post. Can confirm that they got whacked out that way with well over a foot, but it was only a narrow zone that got anything significant. Didn't see a grass-covering snow depth until about 10 miles from the city, and even beyond that point I didn't find a truly deep snow pack until I got within a stone's throw of the business district. From there it was only another 10 miles or so to get to drastically lower amounts once again.

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  16. Ho hum. This weather is boring. Bare ground and freezing cold. Boring. A few inches of fake lake effect this week. Whoopdi doo. A clipper that may give us a whopping inch. Another whoopdi doo. No storms on the horizon. BORING!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Wednesday could be interesting around here!!!!

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    2. Why interesting Anon 7:32?

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  17. Not according to RC this morning. His weather report indicated by end of day on Wednesday, we could have close to 7" of snow that falls throughout the day. Interesting how others are only mentioning the wind chill factor and cold; but no mention of snow totals. Is 10 correct or again looking for increased viewers and ratings?

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    Replies
    1. It's a vast right wing conspiracy.

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  18. KW states 2-4 in his tweet. NDB. He is now even question the lake effect behind the arctic front. I am sticking with Scott who states a few inches for all. NBD.

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  19. CCCC is very quiet today. It must be going to be NBD and he is now officially struggling. Said high winds come at sun down on Sunday an big gusts early after noon. Said clipper would be strong and temperatures below zero and another swing and a miss. But we will move and perhaps pay more attention to Bob's unscientific posts.

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    1. You really ought to know by now that I can't get to the blog from work -_-

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    2. Alright CCCC I will bite. How did you then get on now? Give us your latest update for tomorrow and beyond. Please no links just words. Thanks Bob

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    3. "How did you then get on now?"
      I'm at home on lunch break. Haven't you noticed a pattern by now? I'm almost always here for about an hour near noontime, then I don't come back until near dinnertime.

      Anyways...

      "Said high winds come at sun down on Sunday an big gusts early after noon."
      I also said that there were doubts about reaching truly high wind gusts, and I was right.

      "Said clipper would be strong and temperatures below zero and another swing and a miss."
      I said the clipper would be vigorous, and it was. I also said we would "possibly" get below zero, back when that *possibility* was still on the table. You said we won't get below 7 degrees. Tomorrow night's lows are forecasted to be in the low single digits. Address that one Mr. Science Man.

      "But we will move and perhaps pay more attention to Bob's unscientific posts."
      lol

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    4. CCCC my prediction of we will not get below 7 has a better chance than below zero thank you.

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    5. Ah I see Bloviating Bob is back at it again! Bob we had so much hope that you had become less obnoxious and empty.

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    6. As I have been told and learned your post Anon 2:48 means zippo unless you put your name on it! Stop being one of the Wizard of Oz characters.

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    7. I'm not making any weather predictions. If I were I'd sign it.

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  20. 10 spent over 15 minutes discussing weather issues last night on the news. Look people. It is January. It will be cold, and we may get snow. Stop with the overkill.

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  21. The negative spin placed upon every impending winter weather event really needs to stop. I saw KW's tweets from this morning. He wasn't "questioning" the lake effect, he was expressing uncertainty regarding its intensity. There is still uncertainty regarding how much of an upstream connection we get from Georgian Bay, but there is no question that we will get some lake effect tomorrow.

    The person who wrote the AFD this morning seems to have put a little too much cocaine in their coffee. But the discussion captures the general progression of things nicely: brief but intense squall early tomorrow morning, lake effect follows for much of the day, another clipper for Thursday. We won't see huge totals but the amount of wind could create somewhat dicey travel conditions once the lake effect kicks in.

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  22. How about wind chill values with the winds?

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  23. By early tomorrow morning, cCCC, what are your time estimates? Like 3 AM or 7 AM?

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  24. Tomorrow is going to be fine in the morning. It will get colder and snowier as the day goes on. Thursday morning air temps could be close to zero not sure winds will still be strong then and during the day.

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  25. So as i sit here in the freezing cold this saturday afternoon i have to ask myself where the milder temps are that all the local forecasters said was on the way?Did not Glen Johnson and the rest including the D&C say temps in the upper 20's to low 30's for satuday?As of 2:30 P.M we are still only 24 degrees with a wind chill in the low teens So much for the milder weather!Looks like another sub zero night and you can forget about 30's for tomorrow.

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