Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Monday, January 26

Blizzard will likely save the worst for New England


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

In the run up to big snowstorms, we always hear totals that are out of whack!  This evening in NYC, one meteorologist showed 33" of snow for Manhattan.  Of course this won't happen and looking at the newest information, I'd be shocked if they get over a foot in Central Park.  So why does this happen?  In my opinion, there is SO much model reading that people forget to forecast!!!

6z and 18z (in between) runs are always a little skewed so you'd figure a trained met would know this right?  That's why it's a middle of the road approach that is best in forecasting BIG snowstorms.  Now having said all that, New England will indeed get a crippling Blizzard with 20-36" of snow likely by Wednesday.

247 comments:

  1. Scott are we going to get a big storm this winter?

    ReplyDelete
  2. NYC and west are on weenie meltdown alert right now.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Also did anyone catch the CNN "Blizzardmobile" riding boldly through visibilities of several miles with the roadways barely covered? They should've sent that thing to a higher confidence area like Boston, then maybe they wouldn't look so stupid right now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. CCCC are you know saying NYC will not get that 1-2feet like I said TWC was saying earlier?

    ReplyDelete
  5. West of the city is screwed. Some forecasters are clinging hard to big totals for the city on east, but it's going to be close.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Looks like the Oz GFS shows a storm for GHD? Is that accurate CCCC?

    ReplyDelete
  7. GFS may have been the one who was the most accurate with the blizzard. GFS had it more east all the way while Euro had it more westerly.

    ReplyDelete
  8. That heavier stuff moving into NYC means business though. I wouldn't be crowning the GFS just yet. Besides, GHD is still a long way away and we all know how little lead time the current storm left us with. Until the GFS can demonstrate that its upgrades have actually made it better then it will continue being the Giant Failure System to me.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Nice little weenie blob sitting over NW Monroe County right now.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Nice snowfall for Hamlin yesterday. 00Z ECMWF falls in line with the 00Z GFS for the GHD storm. At least for one run anyways. It also appears Thursday evenings clipper might produce a nice little accumulation for WNY. It looks like winter again in WNY :-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. WAs just watching TWC quickly and they had Stephanie abrahms in NYC. Think she said 6 inches and it was tapering. Something's tells me people down there aren't upset about that though like we would be up here!

    ReplyDelete
  12. I have to give BIG credit to KW as he called it yesterday afternoon in regards to NYC. Even as the Mayor of NYC and the NWS out of NYC were calling for 20-30" and the worst storm ever, KW said they would be lucky to get 12".

    ReplyDelete
  13. Still 12+ inches in NYS can be crippling for the City. One needs to keep in mind that they have all of the snow removal equipment needed; however, very little place to put all of the snow which will pile up around NYC.

    Also for those who are always complaining about missing the big one; do you really want to be in the middle of a blizzard with hurricane force winds that some will be experiencing today and the next. Think about it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thought about it. Answer is still an emphatic "YES PLEASE!"

      Delete
  14. LOL CCCC, We were laughing our butts off at the CNN "BlizzardMobile" last night!

    While we didn't get much from this storm (and were never expected to), I see the glass as half-full because its been snowing lightly for nearly 24 hours, a couple to 3 inches of new snow and everything is white and beautiful here in Perinton.

    Andy
    75"-85" seasonal total

    ReplyDelete
  15. I agree completely. Nice to see some of us stay positive. On to Thursday for a few more inches right?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 27, 2015 at 9:36 AM

    Scott called it too in his post above, forecasters in NYC area did too much "model" watching, and I think I saw this morning 6 inches was recorded in Central Park. I agree even 6 inches is trouble for a big city like that. They should have Scott and Rochester's Most Accurate Team down there the past few days to help with the forecast! :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. How much snow are we looking at for Thursday/Friday? An inch? 6 inches? Something that we will need to get the Blizzardmobile out for??????????

    ReplyDelete
  18. CCCC updates on what 12z GFS showed for next Monday?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Can we just lock in that 06z GFS run please? Has to be the most snow I've ever seen that model give us over the course of a run. Too bad it's nothing more than a pipe dream.

    Thursday looks like a modest slushy event right now, on the order of 2-3 inches. GHD is still a period to watch for something more substantial, which is the first time since mid December that such a concrete opportunity exists inside of 7 days. Right now it looks like a widespread snowfall, so we don't have to wring our hands over tiny shifts in the expected track (although at this range the shifts will likely be more than tiny). I think the worst thing to come out of the busted forecasts for NYC, other than the obvious millions of dollars wasted on shutting the city down, will be decreased faith in future big storm forecasts. Those people were expecting historic amounts of snow and received fairly typical amounts instead, which plays strongly into the "overblown hype for ratings" narrative that we still see everywhere. The storm certainly wasn't overblown just east of there into Long Island and New England, where totals have now surpassed 30 inches in some areas. Speaking of overblown, I'm very certain that my bold prediction of a 50+ inch jackpot is not going to verify. But hey, there's a reason I labelled it a bold prediction in the first place ;o

    ReplyDelete
  20. CCCC the 12z GFS look like it tracked through central Pa. and is that not a good track for larger snows for us?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's actually a near perfect track, and the end result on that run is a regionwide 6-10 inch snowfall. Shift it about 100 miles further south and we're still firmly in the good stuff. It's a spread-the-wealth deal...at least that's how it looks right now.

      Delete
    2. So judging how things typically go, that 6-10 will actually be 2-4 if that. Wait till next week for something big!

      Delete
    3. I bet you're the kind of person who kicks puppies.

      Delete
    4. Nope, just a person that calls out the hype train.

      Delete
    5. There is no hype train, just a discussion of possibilities and model depictions. Downplaying the possibility is no better by the way.

      Delete
    6. Being realistic is only being considered downplayed because of all of the hype displayed this winter. As Scott said, with all the model watching people forget to actually forecast.

      Delete
    7. And the forecasting goes as follows: "The details are still highly uncertain, but the potential exists for something more substantial than what we've seen recently." Take that quote and run with it, and pay special attention to the word "potential." No hype, no expression of certainty, just facts.

      Delete
    8. Oh I'm running with it. Noting that "potential" and like words are now being used after myself and many others (I'm not the only anon posted about it since I am for certain I have only posted 3 maybe 5 times total on this blog) call you out on the hype.

      Delete
    9. Except I use words like "potential" every single time I discuss a window for activity. You want hype try someone like Joe Bastardi, he was comparing this setup to 1966 last week. I give you possibilities, you give me a hard time about mentioning those possibilities. I even explicitly stated last week that there was no reason to expect a storm at that point, because so many details needed to be resolved. "Calling me out" won't do a single thing, because I'm not going away and I'm not going to stop talking about long lead storm opportunities. You can take that and run with it too :)

      Delete
    10. My fervent wish is anonymous learns the difference between a model discussion and a forecast. I'm not hopeful.

      Delete
    11. We aren't worried about you going away. The rest of us get tired of it and leave. When this blog is down to you and three other people you can be happy then. I rarely bother checking the comments since it's the same old same old. I do like the actual posts by Scott, Stacey and Matt.

      Delete
    12. Who is the rest of us? It's pretty much you alone who doesn't seem to get it.

      Delete
    13. Do us all a favor and change that "rarely" to "never." You aren't accomplishing anything by being in the comments.

      Delete
    14. There's certainly a few. The condescending attitude of Carol and her remarks keep me off of here. Most of the time. I see nothing's changed.

      Delete
  21. The snow would be nice but just hoping it warms up a little. This arctic blast is for the birds, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  22. The 12z Euro looks pretty good for a POTENTIAL storm if it verifies. Pretty consistent on all the models that there will be a storm next Sunday/Monday time frame. That is at least good and we are only 5 days away not like 10-14 days. Something to at least track.

    ReplyDelete
  23. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE. THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BGM&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIKELY ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CLE&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    "MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW."

    As if we haven't already seen this exact sentiment somewhere before ;o

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So does the above mean you are forecasting a winter storm for our area next Sunday and Monday. If so, projected amount -- seems like you do allot of cutting and pasting from other sites vs. looking at maps yourself.

      Delete
    2. I do that to show that I'm not just some looney toon advertising crackpot ideas. Also because my own analysis is essentially worthless compared to that of actual professionals. And I actually did look at some maps on my own. In fact, I typed up a whole huge post last week explaining the setup, complete with links to three different ensemble means as well as reanalysis maps from four different storms that impacted our area. That said, I am not currently forecasting a winter storm for our area. All four of those blurbs mention the storm possibility, but two of them also mention the remaining uncertainty. And there is PLENTY of remaining uncertainty. The ensembles, for instance, depict anything from a sheared mess to a lakes cutter, with a diverse array of in-between solutions. We aren't going to have those sorts of details resolved for several more days. Until then we can only speculate and watch the models continue to sort themselves out.

      Delete
  24. Hey guys? I think...I think that anonymous guy doesn't like me. I'm frightened, what should I do :<

    Anyway I think this comic is relevant at least a few times each winter, including right now with the nor'easter:

    http://i.imgur.com/krtpmJc.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  25. Don't worry about the haters. They only hate you cause they ain't you. There were always those kids in school that had to be miserable to others for some reason. I guess old habits die hard. I don't think you have ever been condescending. And I wish they would figure out that your a "he". I'm glad we have something to at least track this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe it's just a matter of his own personal experience. I tend to have an extremely short fuse when it comes to blatantly dumb comments. Perhaps he made a blatantly dumb comment at some point and I laid the hammer down a bit too hard and hurt his feelings. Oh well, no use trying to psychoanalyze a random internet stranger when we finally...FINALLY...have a legitimate storm potential that isn't stuck floating around at Day 8.

      Delete
  26. Funny now Scott has it minus 4 for the low next Tuesday while KW only has minus 2. Scott had it 15 last night ha ha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It went from 15 to 12 actually. I think that number is for Monday morning and not Monday night/Tuesday morning. Tuesday was just added into the 7-day forecast today.

      Delete
  27. Okay thanks CCCC well at least they agree now Tuesday morning will be below zero. Question is will there be winds which bring about brutal wind chills.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Yeah, wind chill advisories at the very least the way it looks now... And that is not a forecast yet for those that take every word as a guarantee on a weather blog!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm going to hold you tight to that outlook and "call you out" if it fails ;o

      Delete
  29. Have a feeling that the system for Monday will go to far South to affect us.

    ReplyDelete
  30. The EURO has a 992mb low over central Pa on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Any storm Sunday will not be large because it is moving way to fast for a big thump.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Wow 0z GFS is a monster run with 12-14 inches for us by Monday evening. Of course it is 5 days away but hey looks nice.

    ReplyDelete
  33. That's one of the major mitigating factors...the progressive nature of the system. It's more of an open wave bowling ball rather than a closed negative-tilted bomb, which precludes any big time snow amounts. That definitely doesn't remove the potential for it to be impactful, however. And it still represents our best shot at something more than a few inches in quite a long time.

    That said...the 00z GFS just came in with a huge run. Foot+ snow amounts along an axis from northern Illinois through eastern Maine. Deepens to 981 mb as it crosses the Catskills. And at 06z tomorrow it's going to show something completely different, especially since this solution is just completely nonsensical.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Total snowfall through hour 156 is already approaching two feet. That's for the entire run combined, not just the one storm. I really want to see if this run can outdo this morning's zany 06z run on total snowfall once it's complete. I also want to see if there's any way to exchange fantasy digital snow for real snow...

    ReplyDelete
  35. So CCCC just throw that run out no chance of getting a major storm ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "No chance" is a bit strong. I would go with "don't bet any farms on it." It's one of several possible outcomes if a full phase happens, but the more likely outcome is a lesser phase IMO.

      Delete
  36. Okay I will go with you and not get excited then. I still say the GFS was more accurate with this last storm it had the storm east while Euro was west and look what happen to NYC. Maybe the new GFS upgrade is kicking in with more accuracy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 18z run was about 300 miles further south and produced much less snow. Accuracy isn't the big issue right now, it's consistency.

      Delete
  37. The funniest part about that run? Literally minutes after I had communicated that quick forward movement would be a problem, it depicts a slow-mover giving us 24+ straight hours of snow. Oy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Although that anon beat me to the punch by about a half hour. Can't take all of the credit :P

      Delete
  38. I am sure the Oz Euro and 6z GFS will lose the storm or it will be way south ha ha. Remember Scott always says the 12z and 6z GFS runs much more accurate.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Regardless of the final track of the potential storm, we have to keep lake enhancement/effect in the back of our minds, especially with the magnitude of the cold projected to be close by.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Well I like the fact that a storm has been on all the models for several days. Plus we are only 5 days out not 10. At least we have something to track and a shot.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I just had a terrifying thought...what if this thing ends up cutting through the lakes? After 4 weeks of begging for more than a few inches of snow in the bitter cold, a favorable storm setup finally grows legs...and sprints right through lower Michigan. My entire body would run red with the purest form of torrid rage that this universe has ever witnessed.

    ReplyDelete
  42. The Blizzard produced 35-40 inches in some areas of the NE. That is about what we have seen all year. Some received more in 2 days than we have seen In over 2 months. That is why I like the BIG storms rather than the nickel and dime stuff we get. That is my opinion. The system Thursday looks very weak. Maybe a few inches at most. Who knows about Sunday. Not getting excited about it at all.

    ReplyDelete
  43. The GFS gives us a good storm on Sunday Monday but I do not see that in the other models so I am taking it with a grain of salt.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Snowdog not sure what you are seeing but the over night run of the Euro also gave us about 10 inches of snow. Still early but models are some what consistent 4/5 days out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So for Sunday we are expecting 10+ inches of snow?

      Delete
    2. Weather Underground is already forecasting 6-10" for the metro area

      Delete
  45. Yeah I missed that Bob. You are right. Lets hope.

    ReplyDelete
  46. I honestly don't know why I even post here. Nobody likes me anyways.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe you should stop posting then!

      Delete
    2. ^ Amen to that!

      Delete
    3. That is the imposter Snowdog.

      Delete
    4. And an imposterBob.it is the same idiot looking for attention.

      Delete
  47. CCCC- Do you see the jackpot zone being near Roch or more towards the southern tier? Where would the low need to track for each scenario?

    ReplyDelete
  48. FROM THE NWS:

    AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
    SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OR NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY.
    THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
    LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY INCLUDE MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
    NEW YORK. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

    ReplyDelete
  49. And as predicted the 12z GFS is horrible the arctic air just shears the storm apart. Again we can not live model run to model but we like doing that ha ha. Lets see what the 12z Euro says shortly after 1:00. We will not really know until Friday/Saturday if we are at least looking at anything significant.

    ReplyDelete
  50. http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/bitcoin-gone.jpg

    Shredded wheat on the 12z GFS. The northern stream shortwave doesn't dig at all and the end result is a very weak system producing a few inches. I'm not even close to thinking about any jackpot zones with that much volatility still present. Each of the past 5 runs are within the realm of possibilities based on the ensemble spread. The GGEM still produces a strong system, not as amped or west as 00z but still uncomfortably close for my liking. I think the 12z Euro will go a long way in determining whether the GFS solution is just a blip or has some actual validity. Either way it's clearly not the time to get too cute with our speculation.

    ReplyDelete
  51. As I said before CCCC do not like that PV coming into play when it comes to a storm. Not often you get a sizable storm with extreme cold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's going to be a balancing act of sorts. If the PV comes on too strong then it will shred the northern stream shortwave like what happened at 12z. If it doesn't come on strong enough then we risk a cutter. Still a lot to resolve in the coming days.

      Delete
    2. My guess though is that the risk of shredded wheat is higher than the risk of a cut.

      Delete
  52. A few things argue against a nightmare cutter result though:

    - A 50/50 low which will be the end manifestation of tomorrow's clipper
    - Confluence in eastern Canada created by the polar vortex
    - A rising PNA

    The first two items would argue for more in the way of blocking to our north, which would force any attempted cut to transfer east instead. The last two GGEM runs illustrate that perfectly...the storm tries to move up to our west before transferring to eastern parts of NYS on both runs. The third item argues for a western ridge configuration, which would enhance the downstream trough in the east and further mitigate the risk of a cutter. Conversely, a falling PNA would pump a SE ridge and actually encourage a cutter. The much bigger concern right now is how much the northern energy can dig and phase with the energy in Mexico. Just as an example, here's what the 06z GFS depicted at 500 mb:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012806/gfs_z500a_sd_us_19.png

    That little dip in the contours across the central states is our northern stream shortwave, and it attempts to dig down and meet up with that big vort down in Mexico. End result at the surface 18 hours later is a big storm:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

    Now compare the 500 mb map from 06z to the one from 12z, same time frame:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012812/gfs_z500a_sd_us_18.png

    The aforementioned dip is barely discernible in that image, it hardly digs at all. No digging, no phasing, no big storm:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

    So as we can see, this whole setup depends heavily upon how the northern stream behaves. Accuracy in that department will not occur until the relevant shortwave moves out of the data sparse Arctic region and into our sampling network. This is why we still have so much volatility and why we can't cling to any particular solution right now.

    ReplyDelete
  53. I also want to mention that having deep Arctic air nearby doesn't necessarily have to be a detriment. We experience no p-type changeover on the 12z GGEM despite the track to near Cleveland, because the existing cold airmass is so intense and we have confluence in place to force a transfer. Strong warm advection tries it damndest, but 850 mb temps still never get above -5C or so.

    ReplyDelete
  54. I am not holding my breath for a storm as we have missed one after another this year.

    ReplyDelete
  55. From KW:

    So the latest Canadian model gives ROC hefty snow Sunday night/Monday before the next polar punch. GFS gives nada. Going to be interesting!!!

    ReplyDelete
  56. Where do you guys go for the EURO model that show precip output, etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I use Wundermap if I don't come across any paid site maps anywhere. Takes awhile to fully update though.

      Delete
  57. CCCC, from what I gather from the latest ensemble, it appears many are getting on board with this storm. I think the GFS eventually does as well. To me, phasing looks likely. Now where will the LP track is the question. Do we want it through central PA? Will that still give us a plowable snowfall?? What is best case scenario, about 300 miles south?

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  58. Well 12z Euro looks like GFS which is horrible so again these models are nuts.

    ReplyDelete
  59. These models are having a hard time with the energy still coming with the clipper. I do not think anything will be known until Friday or Saturday at the earliest. Again looking at models not going to do it right now. It is actually understanding patterns and climatology that would be better. Or the old what is the gut feeling telling you. This is why I wish Scott would at least give us that before we are a day or two away. Because he has great experience. I just think he and many are afraid to say something about what they predict now and can you blame him with the negative nellies on here.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Scott please give us an update! We won't grill you either way! What do you think could "potentially" happen?? The silence is killing all of us!

    ReplyDelete
  61. WE WANT SCOTT! WE WANT SCOTT!

    ReplyDelete
  62. An update from News8 would be great! Don't leave us hangin guys! JK I know they're busy, but we would all love some input on what COULD happen sunday to Monday

    Paging Rochester's Most Accurate!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now the spoofer is spoofing me. The above troll post was not by the real nycowboy. Stop the kindergarten tricks. Duh.

      Delete
  63. If you want snow next week, go with the Canadian. Smacks us around pretty good Monday & again mid/late week. But that's 7 days away. SEVEN! Models having a tough time solidifying on outcome for Monday though. I do like that there is a lot of activity though.

    Stacey

    ReplyDelete
  64. From KW:

    He thinks it will be a BIG miss. Shocker I know:

    Frigid air still a lock for early next week. Most modeling, however, keeps juicy low far enough south Sun/Mon to spare ROC big snow. Early!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Notice a prominent lack of the phrase "I think" or any similar wording. He's just pointing out what the guidance says.

      Delete
  65. The snow drought will continue. We will be lucky to see 70" this year. We are almost into Feb with only 40".

    ReplyDelete
  66. Looks like weather channel and accuweather dropped their predictions too. As of this morning they were talking about at least some snow Sunday into Monday. Now basically calling for flurries possible.

    ReplyDelete
  67. One bad run cycle and the naysayers waste almost no time getting the cancel button ready. Folks, the bad runs are just as useless as the good ones right now. The ensembles still depict anything from a Detroit cutter to a Virginia special, so clearly this thing isn't close to resolved yet. I've mentioned AmericanWx member Typhoon Tip in the past, and he believes that the bad runs are resulting from a sampling error in the east Pacific. Reminder that he's one of their best and brightest, even correctly predicting that the models would bring this week's major nor'easter back from the dead even when none of them depicted a hint of such a thing. And here's what the NWS has to say about the matter:

    "THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM HAS MAINTAINED THE SYSTEM...AND 8 OUT OF 12 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM WHICH MAKES THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM QUESTIONABLE. GIVEN THE SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN GEM...WE ARE NOT READY TO ABANDON THE IDEA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL BACK OFF JUST A LITTLE FROM LOW LIKELY POPS TO HIGH CHANCE AND WAIT FOR BETTER RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADJUSTING FURTHER EITHER UP OR DOWN."

    Your Accuweather and TWC local forecasts are based off of these flip-floppy models by the way, so they're just as worthless. The only serious concern I have is this: Henry "Kiss of Death" Margusity made a snow map earlier today, and almost right on cue the operational models began dropping the storm depiction >.<

    ReplyDelete
  68. If Tip is correct, and if the 18z NAM is any indication, then we can expect the oncoming GFS run to continue the messy unphased idea. I would consider it a bonus if it went back to a strong storm right away.

    ReplyDelete
  69. KW pretty sure nothing Sunday it will be south if any thing develops. Kind of surprised he is that positive.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know what's REALLY surprising? Like almost impossible to believe surprising? That he would say such a thing in the face of 10 billion miles of model spread.

      Delete
  70. Again it is only Wednesday. No reason to jump ship yet. As CCCC stated the models are still trying to figure it out. I don't follow KW but it sounds like he tweets what he thinks will happen day by day. The post quoting him at 12:41 said he saw potential for hefty snow from Canadian model. Now a poster about at 757pm states KW says forget about it? I think I'll stay optimistic for now. wen if we get a moderate snow it's better than none.

    ReplyDelete
  71. I am very interested to see where the 00Z guidance takes this GHD event. I will say, even at this early stage that I was quite disappointed to see the ECMWF follow along with the GFS. I guess it is still time to just sit back and wait and see. Until then we can just enjoy what snow accumulates tomorrow night, even if it is only a couple of inches.

    ReplyDelete
  72. The storm Sunday is done and there is nothing next week but a cold morning one day. This winter will be one of the bigger disappointments. Cold air and nothing to show for it. Getting sick of the morning temperatures being single digits. KW hyped up the PV coming next and happy that was over hyped too. One day at minus 2 big deal and again happy just wish the hype would stop.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear lord give it a freaking rest already. Mother Nature's customer complaint line is never coming back.

      Delete
  73. The only "hype" is posts like yours where you spew out that nonsense. Cold air and nothing to prove it? Have you looked outside? We have had snow on the ground for like a month straight. Sorry your glass is half empty, I truely feel sorry for your soar outlook on life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He could at least keep his half empty glass to himself instead of trying to drain ours...

      Delete
  74. This is some seriously inadvisable extrapolation that I'm about to do, but if you remember my long post fro earlier then you'll feel a small ping of relief when you see the following images from the past three NAM runs, in chronological order:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012812/nam_z500a_us_29.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012818/nam_z500a_us_27.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015012900/nam_z500a_us_25.png

    Why does this matter? The contours near that big Mexican shortwave are...bendier...in the more recent images, which would eventually lead to a better storm if the runs continued. Why DOESN'T this matter? Because it's the freaking NAM. Why is this sort of extrapolation highly inadvisable? Because it's extrapolating the freaking NAM. Just a tiny glimmer of hope to put in that half full glass.

    ReplyDelete
  75. NAM =s horrible both long and short term. I am starting to worry this storm is going to be weak because of extreme cold or south. Hope I am wrong but am getting a bad feeling. Again not sure why we can not get Scott to give his opinion. At least KW makes predictions based on his knowledge of patterns and past storm history. Another reason why I am not liking this he is pretty confident no storm for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Of course the NAM is a terrible model. That's not the point I'm trying to get across though. The fact that it brought back some hints of a better storm is a very good sign that we still have a shot. If it had remained flat with the northern stream then it would've been a serious red flag that our hopes were dwindling in a hurry. And I'm still not sure how people are getting a "no storm" message from KW. All I've seen him do is point out what the models were saying, and so far the entire spread seems plausible. The pattern really can't tell us much when the whole outcome depends on a tiny ripple that hasn't even formed yet.

      Delete
  76. You know what the best part about that NAM run is though? The fact that the NAM gets its boundary conditions from none other than the GFS. So my early suspicion is that the 00z GFS moves at least partway back to a better storm idea.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Surprise just as KW has said GFS is going south of us. We get nothing bad feeling that this will not work out well for us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At 18z the GFS had nothing of note to show us at all. Now the storm is back in the picture. It's a huge improvement, the fact that it's suppressed doesn't worry me at all right now.

      Delete
    2. Yeah, if the Euro shows the southern branch juicy again, I would say that component is a lock. It's the vigorous LP from the northern branch that is going hold our fate in it's ever so cold hands. Way too many variables involved to be watching each model run meticulously; instead, as CCCC already mentioned, we need to look at trends for now.

      Delete
    3. I agree Weatherguy and KW just said the trends are showing the system will be south of us.

      Delete
  78. GFS takes a step forward in the our favor. Phased system a bit further south though. FAR FROM OVER!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  79. Worries me when a veteran met who does not just rely on models says any storm will be south of us and this run shows that and a good deal south.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Point me to where he made any call on the final outcome, because I still haven't seen such a thing.

      Delete
    2. Not a final call but clearly just said on his weather cast the trends are showing this will be south of us.

      Delete
    3. ? the Oz GFS just was south and a few hundred miles south.

      Delete
    4. New run:
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

      Old run:
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

      Your compass must be upside down.

      Delete
    5. Still way South and East and gives the Coast another snowstorm as we are spectators.

      Delete
    6. Which is a detail that doesn't matter right now.

      Delete
  80. I give Scott credit for showing what he forecasted for the winter as far as snow totals for 110-130" when we are not even close to that and we are almost into Feb with only 40". This month will end with below normal snowfall. This means that to even get to 110 we will need 35" in February and March. Not out of the question, but unlikely the way this winter has gone.

    ReplyDelete
  81. https://twitter.com/whec_kwilliams/status/560665065926688768

    "Certainly too early to make any definitive call on Sunday-Monday event...certainly something to watch."

    Save a horse, ride a Canadian:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012900/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

    ReplyDelete
  82. Runs over night not good for us on both Euro and GFS. This will be another storm east and south of us. The beat goes on and on.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Yep agreed. The cold air is killing us this year. KW called it at the beginning of winter. He said the storm track this winter would be south and east and that has certainly been the case this year. This storm will not be strong, but PA and South could see a good 6-10 while we get nothing. Maybe some light snow in the Southern Tear. I am not disappointed because I knew the trend was south and east.

    ReplyDelete
  84. The Canadian models will eventually cave and start trending South and East.

    ReplyDelete
  85. And you are willing to stick to that prediction? You can't get all hard core on it and then flip back to saying it is back on models etc.

    ReplyDelete
  86. From the NWS:

    THE 00Z
    GFS/ECMWF BOTH TRACK THIS LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE GGEM STILL
    HAS IT AS WELL AS SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AT THIS
    POINT...THERE IS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
    SOUTH TRACK...BUT THERE STILL IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
    AND IMPACT THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I agree that this is looking worse and worse each day for us getting any snow from this on Sunday/Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Did you both overlook the part where it says there is still a chance for an impact? I don't wrote things off until they've set in stone and it sounds like it is not. And I'm pretty sure we want it to the south of us because if it went over us or north wouldn't it be mixed or rain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Slight chance which is becoming a long shot. It's cool to be optimistic but face it, this one is going to miss us.

      Delete
  89. It is a slight chance Farmington. Even the NWS states that there is an increasing probablity that this will slide well South and East. The trend is not our friend again. We just cannot get a storm this year. It is getting laughable.Oh well.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Not long ago CCCC was saying we would easily get 6-10 inches in the groundhog day timeline. As I said then and I say it again, all hype. We will be lucky to get 2-4.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do too, in moderation. Too much hype then makes things look like the Patriots. Everyone talks about how great they are without looking at how they haven't won the Super Bowl in nearly a decade and now had to cheat to get there this year.

      Delete
    2. CCCC has been wrong quite a bit lately it seems. She's become too obsessed with model watching.

      Delete
    3. Agreed. I totally understand hoping for a good storm but we have to be realistic about it as well.

      Delete
  91. Sorry folks but this one is a BUST! NBD on this one. Everyone was saying GHD storm for the past week! Can't claim a storm on model watching alone, which is what several people here seem to do. Then it gets everyone all hyped up for no reason. This storm will be NBD. Sorry CCCC but NBD on this one!

    ReplyDelete
  92. Anon is correct, this one will be NBD. Sorry CCCC, but its time to throw in the towel.

    ReplyDelete
  93. What a Major BUST!!! I knew there wouldn't be a storm! Everyone was all hot n bothered for this GHD storm. R-E-L-A-X.....There is NO storm...NBD is correct!

    ReplyDelete
  94. 12z GFS has just about got the nails out for this storm for us. The Euro is a couple hours will bring the hammer to shut the coffin. It is over and time for CCCC to admit the potential has turned into Otential as in zero snow.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Agree with the above posts. What good are models for extended future guidance if the "models" continue to change or fail to pan out? I think it's time to look at these so called models, especially for long term forecasting.

    I stand my ground and say, TV meteorology is first and foremost to get ratings, and number #2 is actual science.

    CCCC can't seem to get a grasp on this.......b/c he's too depressed to admit that he continues to be wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  96. I think CCCC should let the experts handle the forecasting from now on. She doesn't have a clue and just uses big words and jargon to sound educated. And a few groupies follow her around and eat it all up. Sorry you were all lead on to a non-existent GHD storm! NBD NBD NBD.....Say it with me, this storm is NO BIG DEAL and NON EXSISTENT for us!

    ReplyDelete
  97. Nothing set in stone still early all of you nay sayers. I am worried as I have been saying with KW saying the storm will go south. Also Stacey had it south this morning. But lets see what 12z Euro says today. I think tomorrow and Saturday will be the key runs.

    ReplyDelete
  98. To be honest I look forward to CCCC's insight, snowstorm or not. He adds a lot of value to the blog. The negativity does not.....

    ReplyDelete
  99. Those morning comments are just the absolute most absurd level of trolling I've ever seen on this blog, and I'm nearly certain it's just one person replying to himself over and over again. Your obsession with me has gotten beyond pathetic at this point Mr. Anon E. Moose. Here's what I actually said regarding an "easy 6-10 inches":

    "That's actually a near perfect track, and the end result on that run is a regionwide 6-10 inch snowfall."

    That was in response to a question clarifying a single GFS run. And I followed it up with about ten billion posts emphasizing how much uncertainty was left. I know what gaslighting is when I see it, I'm not stupid. Try harder next time kiddo :)

    ReplyDelete
  100. CCCC is a bit of a slob....Just lives off of the models which change all the time!

    ReplyDelete
  101. My argument (posted above as Anon 11:04) is why use models for extended range forecasting when they aren't in agreement or they change constantly? Yes, they have value when the forecast is more immenent (i.e. within 12-24 hours), but why use them for DETAILED forecasting so far out? It seems that they generate more hype than good, and let's face it - hype means more people watch the news and more ratings.

    If TV meteorology wasn't #1 about ratings (and revenue) why else would they tout "The Most Accurate Forecast" or "Triple Diple Dopplers" or "Chief Meteorolist GJ" or all the Weather Channel BS etc, etc?

    CCCC certainly has insight and is much smarter on all of this than me, but he/she hides behind fancy words and stern remarks to those who challenge him/her and then simply calls them "trolls". The naysayers have their right to an opinion just as he does.

    As a charter capt., it's irritating when the forecast affects my livelihood (i.e. I have to cancel trips for a bad weather forecast and then look like an idiot when the wind is calm and the forecast doesn't pan out).

    Just my two cents

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This post is 100% spot on....CCCC is an arrogant amateur....Yes, he has "some" knowledge...But when he is wrong (all the time lately!) he cannot handle the criticism of others. I honestly think he wishes he worked for News8 and that enrages him that he does not lmao.

      Delete
  102. CCC. None of the comments above were from me. The imitators are out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not the real Snowdog, again!

      Delete
  103. ANYWAY...the past several GFS runs are in no way encouraging. That confluence in Canada just looks way too strong. It's important to remember that the models didn't latch onto the final solution for the big nor'easter until 60 hours out, but I'd say the fat lady is making her way to the dressing room at this point. Oh, and here we go again...the NEXT window of opportunity looks to be late next week at the moment. Exactly, here he goes again with this long range bullcrap. Suck it up Sally, it's still not going to stop.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Yeah agree CCCC. That is what I have been thinking that cold air is pushing the LP south and will continue to do so. Just stinks when there were several runs where that LP went right through central Pa. and that was a great track for us. Oh well can not change it but do think we will be lucky to make 75 inches this year .I did not think that would happen when we started winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The amount of cold air was never a problem. We were getting great solutions with a similar amount of cold, it's that damned polar vortex pushing down too hard that's messing the whole thing up. So the cold is being unmercifully rammed down our throats instead of being drawn down by an amplified storm.

      Delete
  105. My god Mr. Anon E. Moose is just relentless today. I can't handle being wrong, really? I've definitely admitted to being wrong in the past, and it doesn't bother me in the slightest. I'm here to practice being an amateur forecaster and spread knowledge to people, that's it. I could be wrong every time, wouldn't bother me at all. Please keep throwing blind darts though, it's making a slow day more interesting for me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You don't get it. First off, there are certainly other posters. I've been at work today and just checked and a bunch of posts were made since I posted this morning. With that said, you act like you run this blog and that you are the blog expert. Even if someone disagrees with you slightly, you call them stupid or trolls or something else. If you didn't get so huffy and condescending with people then you wouldn't get trolled on here. Amateur weather can be cool stuff but acting like you know more than everyone else on here ruins it for everyone. So don't blame the trolls, you did this to yourself. I'm sure you will respond to this with some snotty comment so I will thank you now for proving my point later.

      Delete
  106. Now Canadian model really suppressed and that was the last model that gave us hope. My towel in now thrown in and we have another miss.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, kind of disheartening that we can't even get one of these to work when we have a clear shot inside of 120 hours. Maybe we'll get a surprise 60 hour left-fielder at some point like New England did.

      Delete
  107. Yep. That is the way this winter is going Bob. It will be cold but that is about it. Like I have said we will be lucky to see 70" this year.

    ReplyDelete
  108. At some point you'd think this winter would yield a nice storm with the amount of cold hanging around. To have such a long stretch of cold with no significant storms would be nothing short of astounding.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Huge blizzard April 7th..or right around the time nobody wants one

      Delete
    2. That would such a massive F.U. that it would almost be hilarious. Almost.

      Delete
  109. The drought has also expanded. It is not just a snow drought it is rain drought. We could be in some trouble if we do not get some snow or rain. Alot of western and central NY in a drought.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We really just need a super-soaking great lakes cutter to break the monotony XD

      Delete
  110. At least the UKMET is still in our corner:

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

    Just need a prayer and about 7 trillion blow dryers to push the PV away and make this solution verify...

    ReplyDelete
  111. Weather models and wannabe forecasters are nothing but nonsense when predicting the weather. I get my forecasting from the classic "Old Farmers Almanac." For centuries, this book has been close to 90% accurate when predicting long range forecasts!

    Everyone on this blog, including CCCC should read it. You would be very surprised how it said that for this winter for our region, there would be no big snow storms until around the middle of March.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The same Old Farmer's Almanac that predicted a superstorm for last year's Superbowl. I think I'll pass. They're also about as accurate as the groundhog:

      http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/01/269999572/punxsutawney-phil-vs-the-farmers-almanac-who-do-you-trust

      If they get this winter correct then it will have happened for the wrong reasons.

      Delete
    2. They were one day off from that Superbowl Storm.

      Delete
    3. And it didn't come remotely close to being a "superstorm." It was just an ordinary storm, a relatively weak wave that brought 6-10 inches of snow to I-95 if I remember correctly.

      Delete
    4. It's also not exactly a huge feat to predict a snowstorm in early February and get it within a few days, since that time period is known to frequently produce snowstorms.

      Delete
  112. 12z Euro way south this is done and really stinks since 48 hours ago it was an apps runner. Can not look at models anymore until 2 days away.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks slightly north of 00z to me. Perhaps too little too late though.

      Delete
    2. Over it is not over until we say it is over! Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO! Lets Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Delete
  113. CCCC - this is the charter capt Anonymous.

    With all due respect - you really are starting to sound like a "know it all" that can't handle it when challenged by others.

    I applaud your knowledge and enjoyment of being an amateur forecaster - I actually think it's awesome - but you need to have an open mind to those that have some skepticism of the modeling and long range forecasting which has deteriorated this year.

    Listen, YOU are the one trying to be Mr. Weatherman and forecast the weather with all your tools and models, but you have to be humble and respect those who either disagree with you or challenge you when your predictions are incorrect.

    BTW - I'm also a physician in addition to my part time fishing responsibilities so I understand that there's both an art and science to this stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  114. From KW:

    So, GFS/Canadian models shut the door on sig ROC snow risk Sun/Mon; but EURO & esp. UKMET have now opened the door, slightly. Still early.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Snowdog, this is what I'm talking about. This morning you were on the wagon of "it's over". Now KW breAths a little hope into the situation and you are posting it etc. it's all fine I just don't get why you make up your mind so fast. We r on the same team. I want a storm too. I just want to know that the teammate next to me is in it to win it. If people r on here I assume they want winter weather. So that's why in always confused so some anonymous posters always shut the door on something before it was ever fully opened.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude, I am just telling you what KW states. That is not me. I still believe it is going South and East.

      Delete
  116. I'll probably be wrong and we won't get hit but I'll move on and do it all over again. I don't mean to step on anyone's feet and if I have I apologize. I don't however think CCCC should apolgize or feel bad for anything he has said. From my perspective it has all been in good taste and he has not attacked anyone. I have a feeling there is one rogue anonymous poster creating all this drama! If we all had accounts then this wouldn't be an issue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You don't have to believe us but there's certainly more than one rogue poster. I, for one, don't have time to post all day and the writing styles are different. I post here every now and then but can't stand CCCC and what she spews out towards people that disagree even slightly.

      Delete
    2. Doesn't change the type of attitude the person has. Doesn't matter to me whether someone is a he or a she as long as they treat others with respect. If they don't treat people with respect, then posts like the people were doing earlier happen.

      Delete
    3. I haven't seen CCCC disrespect anyone that wasn't purposely "Trolling" for negative responses.
      I have seen MANY blogs that where meaningless garbage, where there only purpose was to provoke negative responses.
      Well either way some significant snowfall would be a cure all, lets hope it happens soon. Starting to snow harder in Hamlin as I speak. I am getting ready to appreciate the couple of inches we might get.

      Delete
  117. I will say I am a little disappointed to say the least with the trends for the GHD "potential storm", but what are we going to do? I am not going to sit here and blame CCCC or any other blogger for providing USEFUL insight on upcoming weather. I would like to thank CCCC for HIS WELL researched blog posts. KEEP THEM COMING.

    BTW, I haven't total given up on the GHD "potential storm". I will give the models another 24 hours before I throw the towel in.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would like to add, the towel is in my hand. I am winding up getting ready to throw it. Just not quiet yet.

      Delete
  118. Press Load More

    Snow

    ReplyDelete
  119. I do tend to disagree with people somewhat...harshly...sometimes. It might come off as me not respecting their input, but trust me I do. I'm just a snarky asshole sometimes...most of the time..okay fine ALL of the time. That's a style choice which isn't about to change. If it leads you to think that I'm just some condescending know-it-all jerk then that's a shame, because I guarantee you that's not at all who I am. I've been wrong on here an obscene number of times, I will never deny it and I definitely don't need to be reminded of it. I try as hard as I can to disagree without being disrespectful, but I guess it doesn't always work out that way. The posts that I deliberately lay into, the ones that just...bug...the absolute...living...crap out of me...are posts like this: "Another miss for Rochester we never get big storms we'll be lucky to see 70 inches this winter so disappointing." It's not that I don't respect their opinion, it's that those posts are just such a downer to read every...single...damned...day. Like STFU we've heard it ten billion times already. It wouldn't be so bothersome if it wasn't so laden with depression every single freaking time. I don't care that someone thinks we won't get a lot of snow, it doesn't bother me that they don't agree with me, I just wish they wouldn't twist it like they were purposely trying to kill the mood. And it's always stated like an established fact too. Like wow, you know exactly how the whole season will turn out? You want to talk about being a know-it-all, that just about takes the cake.

    Anyway this thread has turned into a complete, unmitigated disaster. We are completely off the rails, not even acknowledging the ongoing clipper, trying to psychoanalyze me like I actually matter. Like holy hell, I post here a lot and you may or may not like it, whoopee. None of that matters, it's unimportant bullcrap. I could be the bastard child of Hitler and Satan and my little brother could be Charles Manson. Doesn't matter. I could be the reincarnation of Albert Einstein with an infusion of Galileo's left testicle. Doesn't matter. I could come here and predict the storm of the century every five minutes. Still doesn't matter. I make a lot of noise and a good deal of it sounds smart, that's it. I don't matter, you don't matter, none of this stupid drama matters. This isn't a CCCC blog, this is a WEATHER BLOG. We come here for one reason: because we love the damned weather and all of its interesting twists and turns. So let's please, for the love of all that is holy and unholy, move on from how much I suck and get back to talking about the WEATHER.

    Looks like some heavier returns are lurking off to our west. Maybe we can get some fluff out of that and get everything to look prettier. Forecasters seem divided on how far north the early week system will get, with some indicating that we will get into the action. The outcome of that storm will also affect what the one following it does, since they'll both be drawing from the same energy down in Mexico.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Charter guy anonymous" again

      Well put - but I'd like you better if you had Galileo's right nut though......just kidding.

      Delete

Blog Archive