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Friday, January 23

"Woah, we're halfway there"...but are we living on a prayer?

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Sorry, I'm a big Bon Jovi fan. We're getting to the point where we're halfway through the snowy season, and many snow lovers are wondering when winter will begin?! I know Matt just posted a new blog yesterday, but this will either get snow lovers excited, or really, really...not excited. Here are a few stats on where we have been, and where we're going (historically) in Rochester.

First, the "bad" news: typically, in years where our January snowfall has been lacking, we struggle to make it to 70-80" of snow, with 100"+ nearly impossible. I said nearly:

There were the least snowy Januarys since 2000. Lots more data out  there. This is just a sampling.

Now onto the "good" news: as Scott showed us, the February-March period has the potential to be quite snowy around these parts. With the lakes (especially Erie) having the tendency to freeze over and limit lake effect later in the winter, it stands to reason that the majority (not all, Lake Ontario still contributes a bit) of snow comes from synoptic systems. Similarly, these are the snowiest February-March periods since 2000:
Something to focus on: 2008 showed up in both of those statistics. We had a relatively  non-snowy January, but  made up for it in February and March with nearly 4 feet of snow, and ended up with a 100"+ season.

So, you can either look at the rest of the winter in one of two ways: The glass is half empty in the sense that January was kind of a dud, and the rest of the season will follow. Or half full - we may still have quite a bit of snow to come. You and I both know there is no way to predict storms months out or weeks out, even a few days out in some instances! The stats are in front of you - decide how you want to look at them! Have a wonderful weekend and a frigid next week :)

149 comments:

  1. But Stacey, the weenie contingent has already decided that this winter is a disappointment, so clearly we already know that February and March will fail to produce :P

    Kind of really annoying that we completely lost next week's clipper. So close, yet still so far away. Oh well, no choice but to move on to the next opportunity, fretting won't change a single thing. I still like early February for a potential critter of interest.

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  2. The Sunday/Monday deal history going south. Next week nothing. Next weekend cold air will suppress any possible storm. This is going to be a bad snow winter.75 inches at best and that may be pushing it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember, wait till next week, it will get better! Something juicy is on the horizon!

      Delete
  3. Clippers suck anyway. They are usually moisture starved and fast movers and produce only a few inches at most. We will be lucky to see 70" this year. February will be a bust as well.

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  4. JN had minus3 for next Wednesday morning yet I see others saying 7 or 8 degrees do not get the discrepancy.

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    Replies
    1. Take the compromise and go with the NWS forecast. They have low single digits.

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  5. And the bait comes flying in almost immediately after I post. You're getting way too predictable my anonymous lovelies.

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  6. By the way, we had several frigid days in advance of the blizzard of '66. So the intensity of the cold has nothing to do with suppression, it's all about the upper flow and how forcefully it pushes the cold air down.

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  7. A very knowledgeable forum goer on Accuweather, who goes by the username Undertakerson, has also been keeping an eye on the GHD period for something. He received this question a moment ago, with edits to make the grammar and spelling less cringeworthy:

    "UTS just curious [what you think] regarding this storm, do you think the [arctic] air can act as a suppressing factor??"

    This was his full response:

    "Chris - in a word, no...

    I do have one or two other concerns but suppression is not among them. I hope to get a chance to explain more this weekend.

    I am, by nature, conservative, but I am almost all in for this event. Call me foolish, call me half-baked but I laid out my reasons (page 2) and I always stick to my guns because the only thing worse than a busted forecaster is one who will exhaust you by flip flopping all over the place."

    He lives in the Harrisburg area so the things he says are definitely relevant to us. There's a thread for that timeframe on Accuweather right now where he goes through his reasoning. There are similarities to my own reasoning, as well as some extra details. I advise everyone to go read through it, you'll find it about a quarter way down the page:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32144&st=20

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  8. There will be a blizzard in The flower City within the next 10 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Yes blog wizard, work your devious magic upon the weather pattern and rescue us from these frozen doldrums.

      Delete
  9. It is funny how relative weather is to the time of year. If this were spring and we had this amount of clear weather (of course the temps would be higher), we would be rejoicing. But because there is no precip this winter, we are bummed.

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  10. CCCC when are you talking about a POSSIBLE big storm? If it did pan out would it be next weekend time frame? And what potential are we talking. Say based on current data if everything fell right what would be the strength of the potential storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's no way of knowing anything about the strength of a storm from this far out. For all we know it could end up crashing and burning like all of the other ones. In regards to timing it would be sometime within the first few days of February.

      Delete
  11. There will be NO storm. This winter is a bust. KW just said no snow next week, just cold. BORING!!!!!

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  12. Joe Lundberg has one quarter of one foot in the door:

    "These two storms will hardly be the last! There may be one late next week, and there's growing concern for one in the East centered on Groundhog Day. And in between, it's going to be much colder than normal throughout the Northeast."

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/storms-and-cold/41086321

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    Replies
    1. Been hearing this all winter. It is getting old.

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    2. No one cares about any of your gripes. Go do something else for the next eight weeks.

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  13. We should set a script on the blog so that this song plays on endless loop in the background:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMysOjwB43Y

    You can honestly summarize half of the comments this way, so it would be a very nice touch in my opinion.

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  14. CCCC doesn't look like really really cold air next weekend? If that is the case I do not remember a big snow storm with extreme cold around?

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    Replies
    1. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/f6/rocJan66.html

      It has happened before...hone in on the final 5 days in particular. Obviously I'm not honking any horns for a repeat of that behemoth, just pointing out that we've been in the deep freeze in advance of significant storms in the past.

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  15. The Blizzard of 66...good times. When I developed my love of big storms.

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  16. We all have that one storm that drew us into being weather enthusiasts. Mine was the lake effect storm of 2000 back when I was just a tiny 4th grader in the Buffalo area. Two feet of snow in eight hours and I spent each and every second of the aftermath digging tunnels through the backyard. Beyond that point I would spend my days searching high and low for the next big one, and only occasionally would I be rewarded. Then I came here for college...still waiting for the next '66 to happen.

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    Replies
    1. Did you just forget about the 7 feet of snow that Buffalo experience a couple of months ago. I remember you posting about being worry for your family, and finally making it home to see them. Though it might not have been in the thick of it while it was snowing -- on some level you did experience it.

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    2. I was referring to actually getting snow on top of my head. But I suppose I did experience that storm vicariously.

      Delete
  17. From KW:

    Networks leading with a mediocre winter storm...Wow. What will happen when we get a real blizzard? How things have changed.

    This is how we are getting in Rochester this winter. We get excited over 2" of snow and cold air.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The second sentence is not KW it is me.

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  18. If 2" is all winter is going to give us at a time, then I am going to get excited over it rather than complain about it every day of the week. BRING ON THE NEXT TWO INCHES I AM LOOKING TO THROW A SNOW PARTY.

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  19. I am hoping for a little LES this next week and some help from a clipper latter in the week, but the way the clippers have currently been tracking I am not going to be holding my breath. The 00Z GFS has a juice Groundhogs Day storm on like CCCC has be hinting at, however the 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z CMC are not currently on board. Still time for hope.

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  20. Things still looking bad for the next 10 days. The Euro did not even show a storm next weekend. KW keeps saying PV cold SB weekend and that week after but I do not see it.

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    Replies
    1. Live by the models, die by the models. Pattern analysis > models

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  21. The clipper looks like it may be attempting somewhat of a comeback in recent model runs, with a modest snowfall now appearing on the 12z GFS. Southern New England gets absolutely smoked as the system rapidly intensifies off the coast, enough to actually initiate a bit of lake enhanced snow all the way back here. The Euro and GGEM also hinted at a similar comeback. Nothing really new to say about groundhog day, operational models won't tell us anything truly useful from this lead time. The pattern by then still looks locked and loaded though.

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  22. I noticed a bit of irony in me saying "pattern analysis > models" then proceeding to analyze the model runs in the very next sentence I typed. The point was that pattern analysis trumps model runs at a long lead time. Models become far more useful when they begin to lock onto a bona fide storm threat, like what some in the Northeast will be contending with early next week.

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  23. Will be interested what that clipper looks like on the 12z Euro today. Also if groundhog day shows on this run.

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  24. I'm not looking for a pronounced surface reflection to show up every run right now. The Euro had a strong low for several consecutive runs before dropping it. It's busy trying to resolve things just like every other model, so it's going to bounce around for several more days before beginning to hone in. Hopefully it hones in on a storm for us as opposed to continued dryness.

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  25. Of course 12z Euro blows up and has NYC at 30 inches and we are watching again. It never fails that western NY always left out in the cold for big snow.

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  26. We have literally never gotten a big storm. Like never ever in all of history. I'll be sure to lodge an official complaint to have that corrected.

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  27. The snow drought continues through next week.

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  28. Per KW.

    New EURO: Wild 10 days ahead for N.E. After Tue blizzard NYC-BOS, snow threats increase in ROC. Extreme cold still on table by Super Sunday.

    We will be spectators to a Blizzard in NYC and Boston. Snow threats increase for ROC. I will believe it when I see it falling from the sky. Probably will be just the nickel and dime crap we always get.

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  29. Don't overlook that big coastal for next week. We aren't getting anything serious from it but I don't think we'll emerge unscathed. Case in point:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012418/gfs_apcpn_us_14.png

    That would easily equate to an advisory level snowfall with how cold the airmass will be. KW isn't necessarily talking about a return to nickel and dime snows afterward, and even if he was then I find it just completely stunning that anyone would complain about it. We haven't even been getting pennies lately, at this point to go back to nickels and dimes would feel like a blessing. On a related note, I move that we rename the blog to the News 8 Whiner Line to more accurately reflect the dominant mindset present here.

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  30. Wow that storm has blown up out of no where. You can never count out anything all the negative people out there. In fact it just moved another 100 miles or so west on the 18z GFS run. You never know we are still talking three days out could move west more.

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  31. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. But yeah, that storm and the one happening right now should serve as an important lesson to those who want to cancel the next 10 days based on looping the GFS a few times. The current one was supposed to slide harmlessly out to sea while the next one was supposed to be a moderate event at best. The massive blizzard of 2013 came out of nowhere too, emerging as a serious storm threat with only 4 days of lead time.

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  32. Sorry CCCC just trying to stay positive. You never know but boy looks like NE is going to get pounded and NYC will get over a foot.

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  33. There will definitely be shifts in the forecast over the next few days. Any snow we get would come from an inverted trough and those can be a pain to forecast.

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  34. The storm is still going to be a BIG miss for us. Not sure what your seeing. Long Island and Boston will have a Blizzard. We will get a few inches at most as we will be on the Western fringe as usual.

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  35. Yes we will be and we probably will be next weekend too. Sit back and be happy for the coast they have to shovel and get snowed in.

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  36. We are missing a big one. Another GFS run showing 1-2 feet for the big cities on the coast. Darn!

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  37. Some areas could get more snow from this 1 storm than we have see all winter. Still a BIG miss for us.

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  38. We are going to be spectators to 2 BIG Nor'easters this week. Areas on the East Coast and New England will get buried.

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  39. From KW:

    Wow, if the Canadian model verifies...IF it verifies...epic blizzard Tue Long Island to BOS.

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  40. We will get ours. If we don't then we will move on to spring eventually and this will be a distant memory. It's probably a blessing in disguise for schools this week since it is midterm week for our high school. Any days off would screw up the schedule of tests kids come in to take.

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  41. Going to be an epic storm that we will watch from a distance. This winter is really going to be a big disappointment. No way Scott's over 100 inch prediction happens. You only get the storm NY and NE are going to get tomorrow and Tuesday once in a great while. NY has a blizzard watch. I guess our blizzard guy was close it is just not the flower city.

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  42. I think we should complain some more because it's clearly helping us get a snowier pattern going.

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  43. Not complaining CCCC just stating what are really the facts. We really would be extremely lucky to get 75 inches this year being where we are right now. The potential groundhog storm you have been mentioning also appears to be a Miller B type which leaves out of the fun. Just think the theme this winter is storms to west, storms to the east, and I am stuck in the middle with you lol. Now KW has been saying over and over again about PV (brutal) cold starting SB weekend and the week following? Do you see any evidence of this?

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    Replies
    1. Miller B storms are actually way better for us than Miller A storms, which usually benefit the coast while the former type tends to spread the wealth. There's definitely going to be at least a shot of bitter air right around super bowl weekend. By the way, my comment above was directed more towards the anons who just say the same tired old things every day. Also areas to our west are having an even tougher time of it than we are...every cutter we've gotten this winter has been severely lacking on snowfall.

      Delete
  44. I've noticed something kind of really amusing this winter so far. By the middle of this week we will have gotten three nice storms to hit somewhere in the East, and all of them will have emerged as legitimate threats with 5 or fewer days worth of lead time. Meanwhile every potential that has emerged beyond a 5 day lead time has fizzled into either a weak clipper or a storm out to sea. Every single one. I think the lesson here is to avoid prognosticating on anything that's depicted to occur more than 5 days away.

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  45. Lets not forget that we had a Blizzard last March! We don't get them that often, so it would be against odds that we get another so soon.

    I'm sticking by my late Dec prediction of 75"-85" for the season and I'd love it if mother nature would blow it out of the water in February with a few BIG snowfalls.!

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Blizzard? Don't talk about blizzard. You kidding me? Blizzard? I just hope we can get an inch. Another inch.

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    2. LOL CCC, your rant sound just like Jim Mora's "playoffs!" rant... well done!

      Andy

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  46. I could give a crap about the coming cold when there is not going to be snow with it. I do not get excited over cold air. Who cares. say we get under 70" this year.

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  47. 12z Euro still showing a monster for NY and NE. 30 plus inches a possibility oh my.

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    Replies
    1. I'm sure the 25 million people living along the eastern seaboard care at least a little bit...

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  48. From JN:

    While Southern New England endures a major snowstorm, #ROC gets flurries. New GFS has good handle on snow for us:1-3".

    Whooo hoo 1-3 inches for Rochester. What will we do with it all. Pathetic winter for us.,

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  49. I would like to start out by saying, I think most people are disappointed by this January as a whole. Now imagine if you loved the snow and your paycheck reflected the LACK of snowfall. So yes I am also disappointed; however, I refuse to bellyache over it, over and over and over again!!!!!!! Wow give it a rest all ready.

    It appears that Western NY will not be left out on Monday. I would NOT be surprised if we ended up with a 2-4 inch range area wide accumulation from the inverted trough. It also appears that the Thursday night Friday clipper type storm might take a favorable track for some modest accumulations in Western NY. It is active with multiple opportunities for snow this coming week so many need to cheer up and hope for the best.

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    Replies
    1. The whining will never stop man, no matter what happens. Here's how it always goes:

      - No snow is happening: "This pattern is BORING!"
      - Nickels and dimes are happening: "All we're getting is little nickels and dimes. BORING!"
      - A significant, but not BIG, storm is happening: "We've seen storms like this a million times before. BORING!"
      - A big storm is happening: "The flakes are too small and a dry slot is coming. BUST!"
      - Blizzard of '66 redux is happening: "Syracuse got more snow than us. Rochester misses out yet again!"

      It's like the bar is always just out of reach for some people. Oh well, their choice to be dissatisfied all of the time.

      Delete
    2. That's for sure. There are many reasonable bloggers on the page also, it will only take some snow to get some more of them back. Until then thankyou to CCCC and some others for keeping it interesting here.

      Delete
  50. I would also like to add that Snowdog might as well stop posting under anonymous, I can pick out all of your posts. They stick out like sore thumbs. Yesterday and this morning before 6am and many in between. Your still here complaining away just hiding behind the Anonymous title.

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  51. I prefer to believe that Snowdog has journeyed to Greenland and is in the midst of a lengthy ritual to bring the NAO back to our corner.

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  52. LOL. Good luck and gods speed to Snowdog. Two straight seasons without any help from NAO. Its amazing we are having as cold of a winter as we are.

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  53. I have to wonder if the meteoric rise of the impending nor'easter might end up screwing with the groundhog day setup. I noticed that the models started dropping any hint of a big phased system for that time period once they caught onto the much bigger solution for this storm. It also could simply be that the sheer magnitude of the storm is injecting a good deal more chaos into the picture and tripping the models up, and that they've only temporarily lost the GHD system. Fingers crossed that it's the second one.

    Also I think it's pretty funny that the Euro model led the way to a lower impact system initially, then led the way back to a larger storm again. Made a wrong turn at Albuquerque, or in this case the Virginia Piedmont. No leader is perfect though.

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  54. CCCC, I know you don't have a crystal ball, but in your opinion do you think we will see one or more 6-12 inch snow falls before spring or are we just chasing ghosts the rest of winter? I'm not drinking the cool aid yet don't worry just trying to find some hope amongst all the negativity.

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    Replies
    1. I would say it's more likely than not based simply on how much time is left and how much cold air is around.

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  55. Blizzard warnings are now posted for NYC- 20-30 inches of snow with 55mph winds. Wow!!!

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  56. Kind of astounding that they could be just about neck-and-neck with us on seasonal snowfall by the end of this storm. Has that ever happened this late in the season?

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  57. NYC mayor could be worst storm ever for them. Boy that would be nice.

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    Replies
    1. Are you serious? Nice for who? Sometimes I wonder if the people on here begging for giant storms have to ever leave their house.

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    2. I deliberately leave my house when a big storm happens.

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  58. Bold prediction: someone is going to crack the 50 inch mark.
    Not-so-bold prediction: KROC will record 3-6 inches total by late Tuesday morning.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC someone will get 50 inches come on really?

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    2. Yes, really. Someone always gets caught underneath some extremely heavy banding in these powerful Atlantic storms and surpasses the forecasted amounts by a country mile. This thing is going to have banding features that will dump several inches per hour, and those banding features will stall and pivot over the same area for a lengthy period of time as the system drifts slowly towards the NNE. Whichever area that is will be the area that overachieves the most. I actually can't think of a single big time nor'easter where someone didn't end up surpassing the high end of the forecast range by a foot or more. OKX is currently forecasting up to 3 feet for large parts of their CWA. It's really not implausible that isolated areas reach or exceed 50 inches if they remain underneath the heaviest banding features for long enough.

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    3. 50 inches would be straight up bananas. Insane even.

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  59. Boy wonder what Cuomo is going to say about regents test this week of course they can not be cancelled because of a Blizzard .I am sure he will find a way to blame the teachers for the blizzard too. Maybe he should take the regents test but he would probably fail.

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  60. Semi-bold prediction: Cuomo will make an ignorant statement at some point claiming that the storm was poorly forecasted or arrived "without warning." This will occur because his administration mismanaged something as per usual.

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  61. I think the key word is ignorant when you mention Cuomo..

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  62. KW says Euro has all of NYS below zero next Monday morning with wind. Can not see any storm for GHD with it being that cold. However if KW is right wind chills may be at warning level.

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  63. If a storm happened then the intense cold would occur afterward.

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  64. I think you will see the NWS post WWA for the Rochester area for tomorrow mid morning through Tuesday morning. I think some places in WNY will get 6 inches or even a bit more by Tuesday morning. It might not be 3 feet but anything is better than nothing.

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  65. Imagine this KROC gets 4 inches tomorrow, 3-4 late Thursday early Friday an inch or two of LES Friday night Saturday morning. All of a sudden January's total snowfall is a lot closer to the average. It goes to show averages don't always show the true stories.

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  66. Ha ha the NAM throws us a little bone. Unfortunately it is the NAM.

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  67. Was just reading about the storm of 1888.. 20-60 inches of snow with 50 mph winds from NJ up to Maine.. Drifts as high as 50 feet! How do you clear a drift 50 feet high in 1888..or even 2014 for that matter!

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  68. You need heavy construction equipment to clear a drift that big. Otherwise you're stuck with it until it melts.

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  69. Think this storm is going to take a big left turn and there will be a blizzard in The Flower City with in the next 2 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  70. One day I'm going to buy a custom shirt that reads "I <3 inverted troughs"

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  71. Not sure what that means CCCC?

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    Replies
    1. Our snow tomorrow is coming from an inverted trough.

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  72. Latest GFS making many angry they are hoping the Euro is the solution. Numbers dropping on the last 2 GFS runs.

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  73. Do we trust the Euro or the GFS? That's like trying to pick between trusting a local cop vs trusting a local drug dealer.

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  74. What do think is going to happen CCCC. The Euro has it pegged more westerly or all the other models that have it more east?

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  75. Well if it was impacting Rochester I would stay up for Euro run but it does not. So night night and hope we can get a big GHD storm for us a week from now.

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  76. We picked up an inch of LES last night and it is still snowing. It is not a lot but unexpected because models have not shown that LES band at all. It makes me wonder if they have a handle on the amount of lake enhancement we are going to receive for this system? We will see.

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  77. The media is ridiculous. Epic, Massive, life threatening. Give it a rest already.

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  78. Think CCCC may be right in that we need to at least keep an eye on a week from today for a possible storm. Again possible so I do not want the angry people to come out if nothing happens.

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  79. OMG. A week from today. How many times have we heard that before. It started in December and now it is almost February. A week from today, a week from today maybe something will happen. LOL

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    Replies
    1. Have you ever added value to anything in your life? Because you certainly add no value to this forum!

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  80. Maybe a week from today you will stop posting counter-productive comments like that. But probably not.

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    Replies
    1. In a week, big things are coming!

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    2. For the NE, not us.

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  81. Some areas in Maine could get 40-50" of snow. Wow. So jealous.

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  82. What about Thursday snow CCCC? Minor?

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  83. You know it won't be much if JN is saying we'll need our snow BRUSHES today.

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  84. Just read the NWS out of NY and they are lowering snow totals to under 2ft now for NYC due to models lowering QPF in that area.

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  85. The GFS and the Euro are still at odds with each other, but the NAM has begun siding with the Euro. There will be isolated 3+ foot totals in spots across the NYC metro, and I'm sticking with my bold call of a 50+ inch lollipop somewhere, probably a small isolated patch in southern New England. Thursday looks like a moderate snow to me right now. The GHD potential is slowly creeping back into the picture as of last night's Euro and GGEM runs. The GFS still wants nothing to do with any southern stream involvement, and instead brings another moderate northern stream event. Either way we appear to be in for a much more interesting time period than last week was (it would be really difficult to get more dull than last week though).

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    Replies
    1. There's that wolf cry again.

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    2. There's that misinterpreting of my post again.

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    3. Today's Euro run not good for a GHD storm. That worries me since Euro did a good job pegging the current storm.

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    4. No model gets it right from that far away, especially this season. Two runs ago there was no storm at all.

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  86. What the heck did channel 10 do with their 10.2 weather station? Now instead of weather forecasts every 5 minutes, we get useless radar scans and out-of-date airport delays. What were they thinking?

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  87. It also appears that the PV severe cold KW was talking about is backing off too? I mean he has been talking for several days like the severe cold we had last year with the PV. Like wind chills 25-30 below. I do not see that on the models?

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  88. Definitely relaxed compared to previous ideas, but still very cold.

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  89. That is good because I think that will help increase the chances for a larger storm system to develop next weekend.

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  90. This was on the front page of today's New York Post: "30-inch snow monster aims for NYC." I can only hope that they aren't suffering a lube shortage at the moment.

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  91. I know most will say today is wimpy snow but I think it's cool that this isn't a total miss for us. It's enough to make it look like winter again at least. Glass half full!

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    Replies
    1. But Farmington, we aren't allowed to enjoy smaller snowfalls because they are boring ;)

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  92. It is wimpy snow. Not even an inch in Victor. Not much more going to fall tonight. Radar is all broken up.

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  93. KW keeps using the PV coming back next Monday has temperature at minus 2 for Tuesday morning. I am not sure where he is seeing that on models.

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  94. OMG. They are shutting down NYC for 8-12 inches of snow. How ridiculous. It will not be an epic storm for NYC. Not even close. The heavy snow will be in Boston and North.

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  95. The snow drought continues for Rochester.

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  96. While the whiners continue drowning in an ocean of their own self-made sadness, I will gladly report that everything looks like fresh white wintriness once again. I'm guessing we won't reach the forecast numbers but it's not like we can do anything about it. Meanwhile NYC is shut down for a good reason, and their NWS office is forecasting way more than 8-12 inches. But I guess once you've drained your own half-full glass then the only logical decision is to drain someone else's too.

    If the ensembles are right about the next two weeks then our "snow drought" is going to have a big time bite taken out of it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah a fresh new dusting to cover the 2 week old snow. Yeah!!!!

      Delete
    2. Would you rather have the 2 week old snow with NO fresh dusting on it?

      Delete
  97. CCCC can you explain what the ensenbles are showing and what about KW and this big PV shot coming next Monday/Tuesday that he keeps saying strongly over and over.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Basically the ensemble means are showing well over an inch of QPF across the region over the next two weeks while a trough hangs around. The big cold shot still looks blunted compared to when it looked like the coldest of the season, but again still very cold.

    ReplyDelete
  99. CCCC it does look like NYC may only get 8-12 according to TWC. They said there is low confidence with NY. Boston on the other hand is high confidence for 18-24 or more. Not sure why KW does not tone it down on the PV and extreme cold.

    ReplyDelete
  100. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ176&warncounty=NYC081&firewxzone=NYZ176&local_place1=Middle%20Village%20NY&product1=Blizzard+Warning&lat=40.7165&lon=-73.882

    "ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT."

    This is from 10 minutes ago.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Can we pretend that is for KROC for just a couple of seconds? Lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to make the fantasy seem a bit more real:

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=blizzard%20warning

      URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
      732 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

      ...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD INTO TUESDAY...

      NOUS41 KBUF 081801
      PNSBUF
      NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-090601-
      NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-OSWEGO-
      732 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

      ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

      * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.

      * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

      * ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

      * SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

      * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

      * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

      * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 20S.

      * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

      * IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MANY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

      A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

      ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.

      &&

      $$

      Delete
  102. The system on Thursday looks weak as well. A few inches at most with that. No storms for Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is you right now:

      http://oi55.tinypic.com/n520yh.jpg

      Delete
  103. Amazing the difference in forecasts for the low temperatures. Scott has on his graphic low of 15 next Monday/Tuesday while KW has a minus 2 for that timeframe. How can there be that big a difference?

    ReplyDelete
  104. https://twitter.com/scotthetsko/status/559907171316826113

    "@whec_kwilliams Sub zero again by NEXT Tuesday AM I think."

    Something definitely doesn't jive here...

    ReplyDelete
  105. I'm pretty happy with the lack of snow. Winter has been pretty easy this year... I was worried that we'd get more snow along with the below zero temps and even lower windchill factors. As soon as the kids are out of high school, I'm moving on to warmer climes! West! Dry heat... ☺

    ReplyDelete

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