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Friday, January 16

Same Old, Same Old...

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Our winter has been characterized by quick, but somewhat intense blasts of arctic air. With each one, we tend to get a few inches of snow (at best), along with gusty winds. Despite the lack of several (we did have at least one decent) respectable sized snowstorms, we are only 7" below average for the season, not including Friday morning's snow. I know many are still looking for the "big one"...I don't see it happening in the next week. We may see some limited lake snow following Sunday's system that should pass by to the east. So, we will continue to nickel and dime. The pictures below are Sunday evening's weather from both the NAM and Weatherbell's Euro. Both systems keep heaviest precip east. Sorry, folks! Something else to keep in mind, while still a factor to a limited extend, Lake Erie ice cover has increased significantly during this last arctic blast, keeping lake effect off of Erie under control.



73 comments:

  1. Stacey, The update is much appreciated! I'd be pretty depressed about this winter if it wasn't for; the few burst of snow keeping things white for the last couple weeks and cold air allowing the ski resorts to make LOTS of snow. We had a few cold and sunny days this week that made getting outside awesome! Although the wind today is ugh!

    For anyone interested my total snowfall prediction for the winter remains at what I said in late December of 75"-85". This is based on my analysis of Nov and December snow since 1940/41, where something in the mid 70"s is most common. I'd love to have mother nature prove me wrong and through in a couple giant storm in Jan and Feb :)

    Andy

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  2. I think you will be correct Andy. This nickle and dime stuff and lack of synoptic storms will not get us to 90" this year. Under 80" is my guess at this point.

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  3. This is why I like hearing what Scott, Stacey and Matt say. They aren't full of hype saying "wait till next week, it looks promising!" like many on this blog say and even other forecasters in the area tend to do.

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    1. So let's not comment on the blog anymore..we can just sit here and wait for an update every 8 to 9 days. I don't understand how you can't see how ridiculous your statement is. If you want zero "hype" as you call it..just look at the damn forecast on the home page. It's what you are looking for anyway. Coming in here and being upset about people talking about weather possibilities is just puzzling.

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    2. Who's upset? Talking weather patterns and causes of weather possibilities are totally different than the hype by some on this blog. There are plenty of good posters on here with a few who post everyday about the next big thing coming next week.

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    3. Who hypes on this blog? Please share. If you are referring to CCCC I don't think I have ever interpreted his posts as hype. Go back and read his post about probabilities. Maybe you consider it hype because the outcome you want does not happen? Not sure where the negativity is directed but it is not warranted. Please enjoy the weather and keep an open mind.

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    4. And if you are referring to the guy who posts about a blizzard in the next ( insert time frame here) then don't worry. He has been doing it for years and is kind of like a tradition on here.

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  4. Agree anon 1:46 that is what blog is for. Looking at maybe possibilities like the 12z Euro have a monster storm POTENTIAL for next weekend timeframe. Probably will not happen but worth at least talking about what the run showed. No harm no foul.

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  5. Basically if you can't handle amateur speculation about potential future events that your forecasts don't cover, then don't come to the comments section of the blog. We're going to discuss these things whether you like it or not, because we share a common interest in weather phenomena. We know as well as anyone that a lot of that speculation won't come to fruition, and we really don't care because the discussions are still interesting. We're not responsible for holding your hand through all of the "ifs" and "maybes" of the many ambiguous future scenarios we delve into. And by the way, it's equally irresponsible to outright dismiss an uncertain situation as it is to hype it up. Yet I see so many pro forecasters issue gun-shy forecasts because any vague mention of a storm potential in the extended gets them accused of "hyping" or "fear-mongering."

    I'm more than a little confused over the latest AFD from this afternoon, particularly the long range section. It talks about scattered snow showers for Wednesday followed by widespread snow for Friday. But from what I've seen there is zero solid indication of any widespread snow on Friday, and additionally the potential Wednesday system would actually be the widespread snow event if it took the right track. Speaking of which, I peeked at the 12z GFS ensemble members and they yield anything from a shredded mess to a weenie's delight. The 12z Euro and 12z GGEM would both produce a moderate event while the 12z GFS would barely miss to the south. Late week is still very much in question, with the operational models diverging this afternoon amidst continued large spread in the ensembles. I will say that suppression looks like much more of a concern than a GLC track at this moment, but we've seen these kinds of situations turn on a dime this season. It's also very curious that the Euro wants to spam the entire eastern half of the country with a giant blob of modest low pressure for the third straight run. Otherwise I will gladly continue to embrace our nickels and dimes if the big one doesn't happen anytime soon.

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  6. I was actually a little surprised when I looked up our actual snowfall this morning. It honestly seems like we're farther than 6" away from average. Just me? Those nickels and dimes definitely add up...

    Stacey

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  7. Maybe it's because this season was really sporadic until about 10 days ago. Almost a third of our current total came from that one storm in December, and that was in the middle of a largely unfavorable stretch for winter weather of any kind. Also interesting is that our January number so far is almost exactly what it was last year on this date.

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  8. Everyone just needs to chill out or stand outside for a couple of minutes with no coat, gloves or hat -- that will cold you off. It is gonna snow when it is gonna snow, and until then enjoy the snow we got this morning, the crunch of snow under your boots, seeing your breath as you walk to the bus stop or car. Basically, it is winter - either enjoy that Rochester winter has to offer or better yet if you are that unhappy with always missing out on the big one -- move to Middlebury where they seems to get significant snow totals all year. Bottom enjoy what we have and day which is given to us; otherwise shut up and move on.

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  9. Not much on the model runs last night as far as storm potential. Still looks quiet next week and through the weekend.

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  10. Truly loved going out for a walk this morning. When the air is cold like this and the snow is crunching under your boots; it just makes you smile and happy to be out and about at 7:30am with a little bit of sunshine. Love mornings like this and will take them anytime.

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  11. I do have to say that the models particularly long range have all been really bad this winter. They all seem to show big storms 7-10 days out and they never materialize. Thought things would get better with new GFS.

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  12. The new GFS really seems to have a penchant for spinning up huge fantasy storms after hour 240, much more so than the old version. It's also having real difficulty with the clipper-redeveloper for the middle of next week. The foreign models still seem superior.

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  13. Models just show nothing for the next 7-10 days .I am starting to give up on this winter being a snow lover.

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    1. Living and dying by the models will take yeas off of your life. Also 10 days takes us to January 27th. At that point we'll have six more weeks to get a good storm. Otherwise there are plenty of digital disturbances floating around in the long range, definitely not a dry looking deal to me.

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  14. Probably doesn't mean much right now, but the GFS has been depicting around or slightly over a foot of snow during the next few weeks for the past several runs. Ensemble means would lend credence to that idea, both in QPF output and mean SLP anomaly. That much snow wouldn't come from nothingness.

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  15. A foot over 2 weeks is nothing.

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    1. Actually it's 12 inches, or 30 centimeters, or 1/3 of a yard, or 1/5280 of a mile. In any event it's greater than zero, which means it is most decidedly NOT nothing. You can't have a foot of nothing, twelve inches of empty or thirty centimeters of nonexistent.

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  16. Next week, clippers and LES still active but not any significant events. It is still better than earlier forecasted extended thaw. The ground will be white and the temperature is going to remain below freezing after tomorrow, for some time to come.

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  17. KW has been saying the week after next will be bitter air again?

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  18. CCCC is it the PV again and how cold are we talking because I am getting sick of the cold.

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    1. Never looked into what's causing it, will do tomorrow though. As it stands we would possibly get colder than we did earlier this month.

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    2. Not a model reader as I mentioned..but it looks like the PV settling in over Hudson Bay to me. Not a big fan of stupid cold myself..especially without snow.

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  19. Yikes we were minus 9 the other day and no one even mentioned it? Earlier in the month we had minus 15 to minus 20 wind chills lower than that?

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  20. My prediction tonight's GFS and Euro runs show a monster storm next weekend.

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  21. Cold without snow sucks. I would rather have it be warm. No storms in the foreseeable future. A few weak clippers. Tomorrow will melt some of the little snow we have on the ground. Boring winter.

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  22. I feel like I've read this before but I'm not sure where.....

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  23. 12z GFS still not looking promising for any storms in the future.

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    1. I saw disturbances galore on the most recent run, that's the only thing that matters right now. Finer details will be resolved much later.

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  24. No CCCC update means nothing good is showing weather wise. CCCC you said you would be commenting about that arctic blast coming a week or so from now?

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    1. No CCCC update means I'm doing something else. I don't live on the internet :P

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  25. Caledonia's model reading was spot on...the arctic outbreak at the end of the month will be brought upon us by the negative EPO ridge building up and displacing the tropospheric polar vortex to near Hudson Bay. In that sort of pattern the best we can really hope for regarding snow chances are fast-moving Miller B type systems, which last season had a bunch of. I'm also hoping we can manage to cash in on lake effect with how extreme the lake induced instability could be, but details like wind direction and available moisture are impossible to resolve from this distant range.

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  26. So CCCC all the models are still the PV coming in about 8-10 days? Are we talking extreme wind chills?

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    1. We'll start talking wind chills when the time is right, which won't be for several more days. But my early guess is that we could tickle warning criteria wind chill values at some point.

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  27. The latest 12z Euro sure does show real cold air coming in ten days from now at least zero or below.

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  28. 12z Euro still showing no big storms so cold air with no storms same old story it stinks.

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    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

      Now try and tell me that wouldn't be a good snowstorm for us.

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    2. It would be a great storm if it came true. It is over a week away and will change 1000 times.

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    3. It has good ensemble support too. Then again, we've said that a lot this season...

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  29. The Gulf will be shut off for business so we can only expect little weak clippers with little moisture. I think January will need up colder than normal but well below normal in snowfall. I am not excited about the cold coming. All I hear is my heating bill going up and up. Usually when it gets that cold there are no storms.

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    1. We could also get lake effect and Miller B storms. It's really not a bad pattern on its face, just isn't ideal for huge blockbusters. The most intense cold probably won't dominate for more than a few days.

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  30. Models are backing off on the cold and every thing. This winter is really going to be a big disappointment.

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    1. -No model is backing off on anything. Which is unfortunate because no one wants super intense cold.
      -You're only going to be disappointed if you set your expectations high.
      -Congratulations, your comment is this blog's 1000th complaint to affect zero change on the weather pattern. Mother nature's customer service reps are still on vacation.

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  31. The outdoor scenery today reminds me too much of early spring. Blech. And we're probably stuck with it until later in the week, when a northern stream low may try to drop us another nickel. The next legitimate chance is still early next week when vigorous northern stream energy currently looks to dive south and develop into something more organized. The way this season has gone so far I'm not holding my breath on it unless and until it reaches slam dunk territory.

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  32. So again really nothing looking good for snow lovers is what CCCC just said. Hope that is about it even with the 1000 pattern change coming posts that said better snow set up?

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    1. What fantasy land are you getting that idea from? If it's about the last sentence in my post then that has more to do with lack of faith in the models as opposed to lack of faith in the pattern. It still looks better for snow chances by the way, but if you're looking for a big storm out of it then you're S.O.L.

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  33. I thought last year was much more snowy than this year at this time but it really was not. Last year at this time we have 49.7" of snow and right now we are at 37.8". I now it is a ft difference but I thought we had more snow last year at this time.

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    1. We also had three significant storms by this point last season, compared to just one this time around. That's probably why it feels like the difference should be way more than a foot. And if you consider last season's November and December storms then those account for essentially the entire difference. We've simply been unlucky this winter.

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  34. 12z Euro OTS. Has a storm just can not get it to come up the coast right now darn.

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    1. It's much closer to being something decent than previous runs. The typically flat-biased NAVGEM has an amplified coastal hugger. And the Euro ensembles have a large cluster of members west of the operational run. Kind of a half-hearted comeback attempt, but there is still a tiny trace of hope. The one afterward has a higher chance of delivering, but its ceiling is much lower given its pure northern stream origins.

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  35. Ho hum. Boring boring winter so far

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  36. And of course we need to hear about it several times each day, or else mother nature will never call her customer service department back into the office -_-

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  37. A dusting last night. Yike. This is pathetic. LOL

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  38. Looks like models over night trending west with storm next Sunday/Monday timeframe. Time will tell and would be interesting to see what CCCC says.

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  39. The past several model run cycles have demonstrated perfectly why writing off the next ten days based on the GFS output is an exercise in absolute stupidity. That big Gulf system which looked destined for the fishes not long ago has made a sudden jump westward, particularly in the Euro suite. This is a storm whose vital time frame sits less than 5 days from now, and yet we've seen a huge shift with such little lead time. This is why I have such a problem with the "models show nothing for 10 days woe is us" people...you can't fully rely on these operational models beyond 3 or 4 days let alone a week and a half. And if our system of interest continues to trend favorably for us over the next several days then it will be far from the first time it's ever happened. All of that said, there are no guarantees that the trend leads to good stuff for us, or even that the trend will continue at all. The northern stream system is still a concern because it could still manage to kick the main system out to sea, and then no one except Bermuda has any fun. But then you look at the overall situation: big amplified coastal storm, Euro seemingly leading a westward charge, ensemble members clustered west of the operational. That's a situation we've seen several times in just the past couple of winters, and it usually ends pretty well for us. Again though, there are absolutely no guarantees, or even any high probabilities or likelihoods. We'll simply have to wait and see what happens.

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  40. Right now it still looks to miss us. We will see.

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  41. I guess the GGEM called in sick today. Can't find the 12z run anywhere I look.

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  42. So apparently the GGEM ensembles came in before the operational. "F**k it, we'll do it live." lol

    They're west and amped compared to 00z by the way.

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  43. Still not far enough and will not impact Rochester. Sorry folks.

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  44. FROM KW:

    NE storm this wknd likely a miss.

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  45. Looks to be a Long Island/Boston snowstorm. Spectators again!!!!

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  46. I don't mean this in a disrespectful way Snowdog, but I would hate to be you. So pessimistic. But to each his own. I had to say that last sentence otherwise I would be called out for not letting people express their opinion.

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  47. Not being pessimistic Farmington. Just calling out what KW said on his tweet.

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  48. Well he sang a different toon on his telecast just now so not sure what's up

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