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Saturday, January 31

WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON ROCHESTER

If you've been following the forecast models in recent days, you've probably noticed major shifts in the track and intensity of our upcoming storm. Finally, all models seem to be climbing on board with a solution that will give much of western New York a significant winter storm.

It now appears likely that the main low pressure system will slide through southern or central Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday morning placing much of our region in a prime location to see heavy snow.



Snow will start to overspread the area from the southwest late Sunday afternoon and then become widespread Sunday night into Monday morning. The heaviest snow should arrive early Monday morning, right around the time of the morning commute. Not the best timing! Because this will be a fast moving storm, most of the snow should already be ending by late Monday afternoon.

***Still a very tricky snowfall forecast because just a 50 mile shift north or south in the track of the low could mean big differences in the final snow totals.***

Here's what the GFS is showing through early Tuesday morning:



Notice it has a swath of heavy snow accumulations for most of our region. According to this model, many of us would see 6-12" of snow. But remember, snow ratios will be very high thanks to frigid air in place which will increase our "fluff factor" quite a bit so we can tac on a few more inches.

The ECMWF is showing a very similar swath of snow increasing our forecast confidence:



Also, we have to factor in lake enhancement from Ontario which could add to the totals!

So right now it appears that the greater Rochester area will see a good 6-12" of snowfall from this with locations along the lake potentially seeing 10-14". South of I-90 will also be a hot spot with some locations seeing over a foot of snow.

Remember, these are preliminary numbers and will most likely change as we get closer!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

111 comments:

  1. I've never been first to a new blog. Sounds good Matt. I hope if anything shifts it shifts north! It's amazing how thing have transpired and a few days ago I was trying to stay positive which was tough with the data that was not good and the negative posts etc. this is why I stay in the game because sometimes there is a 2nd half come back. We are in the red zone. let go for it on 4th and inches and then go for 2. Ok enough football references. Let's hear it people.

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  2. This storm keeps trending more and more north. I would not be surprised if we are all in the 12-16 range. I do not understand why WSW are not up for the counties bordering lake Ontario.

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  3. The NWS is waiting for the 00z runs to make sure there is no southward shift in the track. If everything stays the same you will see WSW posted for the rest of WNY.

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  4. 00Z NAM further north, HOWEVER less snowfall. I hope the transfer to the coast is not to soon stealing energy and precipitation from the LP in northwest PA.

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  5. NAM 00Z track would definitely warrant WSW for all of WNY. If that track holds up I think areas north along the lake shore will have the highest totals.

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  6. Not to disagree HP but seems like not a big difference with NAM 00Z compared to 18Z from what I see but I am no expert.

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    1. I agree, not any big changes. There are a couple of small ones. LP is a little more north, and there is a slight down tick in the precipitation totals. Don't get me wrong I like where we sit with this storm. I am just worried it might under perform for some.

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  7. I also think 12" totals will be hard to reach for most. I think most of WNY will be under 10". Still a significant total.

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  8. I think with lake enhancement and ratios with the cold air areas close to the lake will get over a foot including the city.

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  9. I'm real curious what happens with it being this cold for a synoptic snowfall.

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  10. CCCC must be real busy putting down some cocktails tonight. Really limited posts from him today especially since he was all over predicting this well over a week ago GHD storm.

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  11. 00Z GFS holds serve with north trend and good moisture.

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  12. This has major bust all over it so do not be surprised. The LP may transfer energy way to fast to the costal one and we would get about 4 inches or so. Make sure you pack your lunch bag for school Monday.

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  13. Matt on the 11 weather says WSW for Monroe will be put in over night. He guarantees it and he was pretty confident with heavy snow so I assume Scott has been conferred with about what he thinks. So News 8 on board with a significant storm.

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  14. Matt nailed it...Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for 10-15 inches and gusts up to 40 mph. The new forecast map from the NWS has the highest totals along and north of 104.

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  15. Not sure why he only has the lake enhancement along 104. I live in Gananda and always get lake enhancement snow as well. It comes in much further inland than the 104 corridor especially with the winds they are projecting.

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  16. Is out possible we could get even more then they are forecasting like maybe 18 inches in spots probe to lake enhancement?

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  17. Anything is possible. I'm glad to wake up and not read that the storm has weakened or anything. HP was worrying me last night with what he was saying. Hopefully this storm is enough to satisfy us for a while. Who knows when next large one will hit us.

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    1. Satisfied. Never!

      18 inches? We want more!

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    2. I knew a chick in college who said that all the time.

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  18. Yeah I don't think some of us will ever be satisfied until we get that real big one, the one that dumps 2 foot and shuts stuff down for a few days. I know some on here will get upset I said that. I don't wish any harm on life or property, I just like those exciting crazy big storms. I can remember one from when I was younger, and a few lake events while in college at Oswego. Other than that it's been pretty normal for years.

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  19. Hey WSW for Monroe finally. Well according to The Weather Channel we are in the 12-18 area for total accumulation. I know it is the weather channel but we are in the now casting timeframe and they did do a good job about NYC and the blizzard. If this comes to fruition can not see how schools would be open. Feel we are going to get 12 inches and areas 15 closer to lake. We will see but suppose to start snowing around 8:00pm and then go until at least 4:00 tomorrow.

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  20. It should be pretty wild on the north side of Hamlin tomorrow morning with heavy snow and 40mph winds. It sure is nice to have a forecast trend go in our favor and put ALL of WNY in the sweet spot. Its already snowing lightly thanks to the big lake.

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  21. Light but steady snow in Clarendon. Radar shows a big blob of precip west of roc. So here's an amateur question: would this be considered unrelated lake effect? Or the lead edge of the storm? Looking at the northeast radar this storm looks closer already than the evening start time forecast last night, and that blob looks like things might be firing up early?

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  22. I live in Orleans county along the lake and get Buffalo channels, but only about one mile from Monroe county. It is interesting that last night not one Buffalo forecaster mentioned anything about lake enhancement. They were calling for 4-8" along the lake Ontario shore. I guess we will see.

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  23. Looks like the young CCCC was out getting his drink on because he posted well after 3:00am. Like the groundhog do not expect to see him for a while on the blog today. Where is Weatherguy or Snowdog? There use to be a great weather smart poster named David who we have heard from in a long time?

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    1. Ask for a David, receive a Charles... not bad IMO! lol

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  24. Would assume not that bad for Rochester because we have not heard much from our local mets. The storm is upon us thus if it was going to be real bad then I would think the local mets would get information out sooner than later.

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  25. So they upgraded Chicago to blizzard warnings and I think our winds may just be as bad maybe blizzard for lake communities

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  26. Potential snowfall total by 7 PM Monday: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml

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  27. IT'S GAME TIME DAMMIT

    http://i.imgur.com/biDFHU0.gif

    Light snow is already falling where I am. Feeling like we could easily end up on either side of the over/under achieving fence with this one.

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  28. Adam B and CCCC what do those show because not coming up on my computer?

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    1. Adam's link shows a snow map with 10-18 inches of snow for the region, highest near 104. Mine shows Vince McMahon swaggering down to the squared circle.

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    2. CCCC, are you feeling pumped up like Vince, or do you have a feeling that we will get disappointed? Just wondering what your mindset is.

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    3. Pumped like Vince. We may or may not end up disappointed, but right now there's no reason to be anything other than pumped.

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  29. I read the NWS discussion earlier and it sounded pretty positive for heavy snow. They said something about a good 4-6 on just the initial warm air advection and that is only the first part of the storm. When the meat of the storm sets up show we may get into some decent deformation bands and have some good rates, not to mention good ratios Monday. Looks to be a wild night and Monday.

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  30. CCCC is not the bust potential pretty low right now when you look at how the storm is currently unfolding? In fact it looks like it has stayed north a little more which puts us in the heaviest snow area?

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    1. There's the ever-looming threat of dry air intrusion including the dreaded dryslot, which is a threat we contend with every storm. Otherwise I definitely see somewhat more boom potential than bust potential at the moment.

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  31. I will say that this storm is eerily similar to the infamous bust a few years back where Scott crushed all of our dreams at the last second, earning News 8 "Rochester's Most Accurate"... However, the way things look now, we appear to be right on track.

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    1. That storm was tossing red flags at us left and right in the days leading up to it. I still remember wringing my hands over how perilously close the 0C isotherm was getting on the models. This isn't nearly the same situation for us, although it's definitely a bit eerie how it's almost the exact same general scenario for Chicago on almost the exact same day.

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    2. I remember that.

      Is there any way this storm tracks so far north we end up on the wrong side?

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    3. Yeah, I saw those Blizz warnings go up and I immediately had a flashback!

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    4. I don't think we're dealing with any north shift screwjob at this point, although I wouldn't be too surprised if a dryslot works in for just a little while.

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  32. I'm starting to wonder if I won't get an inch or so of bonus pregame fluff before the main show arrives.

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  33. Oh boy not liking that CCCC and Weatherguy seems like you both have pointed out a bust situation not out of the realm of possibility.

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    1. Rarely is. Though this is a very solid looking storm. At this point I really don't see a true bust (ie less than 6 inches)

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  34. No sense in worrying about it though, we have no control over it!

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    1. At least we have the super bowl to distract us while we wait.

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  35. Okay well I feel better since Scott posted on FB that the area is looking at 10-14 inches to tomorrow afternoon. He would not post that this close if he did not have a high confidence.

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  36. Why are you talking about bust potential when it has not even started snowing. That takes the fun out of this whole storm. You guys say I am negative. There is nothing that shows this will be a bust. Come on.

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    1. No one is hanging their hats on a bust happening though, we're just discussing any potential mitigating factors. I'm sure everyone here thinks this thing will live up to the forecasts.

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  37. CCCC, as I recall, we got dry-slotted during the Valentine's Day storm in '07. We got 4" from the initial slug, had about an hour lull, then got smoked for 8 hours to give us 14-18".

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    1. I still think this storm smacks of that one. So many similarities.

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    2. Was that storm one of the analogues for the current storm?

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    3. Yep. Had a prominent spot in the CIPS analogs for several days.

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  38. Wi there be decent heavy snow to watch tomorrow morning etc? Reason I ask is I am not staying up all night to watch it but it sucks to miss the big stuff when youvr sleeping! I have two little ones so getting no sleep is not an option! Especially if they r home from school tomorrow

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  39. Storm moving more south east now this will be a bust the way it looks at this point. Not a lot of big snow happening to the NW of us. Worried we are in trouble now. Plus no KW/JN tweet you know we are in trouble.

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    1. RU kidding me????

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    2. Or maybe KW and JN have a life and family to be with also. And no snow to the NW? Isn't it coming from south west. Are you serious here or just looking to piss off the storm gods?

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  40. Recent model runs are so far north that I'm no longer concerned about any last minute south trend.

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  41. 12Z GFS is looking good. I am not to worried about a bust at this point. That looks like a perfect track for WNY. I don't think the low is going to travel far enough north to dry slot us. I would be more worried about that on the NY PA border and south central NY. Big totals look likely in Monroe and surrounding counties.

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  42. Looking at latest information I believe Scott said 10-14 and he is right on and in fact he may end up bumping that up a bit. I think the ratios will be higher with the cold air and an impact of lake enhancement will put those north of the thruway in a 14-18 inch range just my opinion.

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  43. When these storms get close, I feel like a kid bowling. After rolling the ball, waving my hands to steer it to the sweet spot. As if I have any control.

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  44. It is also snowing light to moderate here in Hamlin this morning. The radar is neat, Lake Effect say hello to the warm air advection in Niagara county.

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  45. I know it is supposed to start south west of us first, anyone have a timeframe that we can expect snow to start in victor/Farmington area?

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    1. I would say 7 or 8pm for business to start picking up.

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  46. Do you think any district will be bold and cancel tonight or is it smarter for them to cancel in the AM?

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  47. Our WSW could really be darn close to a Blizzard Warning criteria and we maybe we get an upgrade? Our forecast winds put us on the edge of the 35MPH criteria along with the heavy snow expected to last more than a few hours and vis <1/4 mile? Plus we've got a good amount of snow from Friday which will blow round as well. Chicago and surrounding areas have a Blizzard Warning and we have the same forecast winds around KROC.

    Andy

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    1. Recall how hesitant the NWS was to issue blizzard warnings for the March blizzard, and that was with much stronger winds. I have doubts about an upgrade this time around.

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    2. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 24 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

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    3. lol there it is finally!

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    4. I also doubt they will upgrade to blizzard warning. I have no doubt there will be plenty of times with blizzard conditions in Hamlin and surrounding farm communities, but sustained winds of 35 mph+ for 3 straight hour is very difficult to obtain and probably will not occur. Last winter we had two storms with worse visibility and driving conditions than our "Blizzard" created anyways. With the fluff factor and the snow that is already on the ground, this will most likely do the same. Timing is also going to make it more of a problem for the area.

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    5. Yeah our BUF office may be a bit more conservative than some offices because to me the scenario is virtually the same.

      KBUG quotes for ROC: Winds...northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph producing significant blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities...less than a quarter mile at times.


      KORD quotes: northeast winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph this afternoon. The combination of falling and blowing snow will frequently reduce visibilities to near zero in white out conditions late this afternoon and evening.

      Andy

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    6. Yes the NWS in Buffalo does not like to use the word blizzard lightly. If we are to reach blizzard criteria during the event then they will issue warning at that time, similar to how Chicago did. That is not going to take anything away from this storm.

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  48. I think rural districts, East Rochester, city will cancel before game time. Rest will fall like dominos after the game.

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  49. Why would East Rochester and city cancel before game? Btw East Rochester is not a rural district they are not the city.

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    1. ER doesn't bus. They always close eaier than most districts.

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  50. Yeah but I think he is saying because the kids don't get bussed there right?

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  51. KW tweeted but did not seem that impressed with this storm.

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    1. Huh? He said no major changes in his forecast of 8-12" for most, localized 12"+

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  52. Bust potential at this point is very slim. Based on some 12Z data and of course the high "fluff factor", it looks like a solid 10-15" for Rochester metro with locally 18"+ along the lakeshore. Scott will have an updated snowfall forecast later this afternoon.

    -Matt

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    1. 18! Did you just say 18+? ( faints )

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  53. I think if everyone sets their sites on getting between 8-12 inches no kne should be disappointed. It will e bonus time if what the NWS states comes true with the 10-15. TWC shows 12-18 for pretty much all of us. Not sure if tht will verify

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  54. hey matt how much are you projecting for the oswego, ny area..i know were projected to get a little less with the lake enhanced snow not being as much a factor as opposed to greater rochester with the northeast wind..also w the fluff factor what are the snow ratios going to be roughly are ya thinking? thanks alot man..

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  55. I need help understanding something. Look at News 8's interactive radar, flip over to the "future" option, and watch. Why does that show the most intense snow being gone by early morning, when I thought the morning commute and morning were to be the worst for us...? Guess I never really understood how/what that futurecast is based on though. Thanks for enlightening me!

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    1. Yeah, because once the system begins to slide to our East, the lake will boost rates back up and the flakes will become very fluffy.

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    2. So maybe that radar's futurecast can only pickup on the main storm snow? Thanks!

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  56. The radar is starting to light up to our southwest. It will be interesting to see how much snow we get early on before the real dynamics reach the area tonight. I was hoping to be able to watch the super bowl this evening without plowing. I guess Beggars cant be choosers. It has snowed lightly to at times moderately all day. Just setting the stages for the real deal coming tonight. Matt posted some place could possibly get 18+ inches that would really make up some ground on our snowfall drought in a hurry.

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  57. Look at the US radar and that moisture shield is huge!!!!!

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  58. Wow it is nice to hear the pro say that the busy potential is low and the totals should be high!

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  59. Does anyone know what the time frame is for the snow starting and ending and when will it be the heaviest in the metro?

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  60. I asked earlier and CCCC said maybe around 8pm? Have heard it will take a while to get out of here tomorrow

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  61. It is now lightly snowing in Farmington after that morning stuff has been shut off for a while. Is this the initial warm air advection snow?

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  62. Scott just tweeted a map showing 8 to 12 for most of us. Looks like we need to prepare for a foot or so. Glad it will be light and fluffy to move around.

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  63. That is a change because Scott had earlier in a tweet 10-14 for the area so he has decreased the numbers. More in line with KW and the rest.

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  64. Chicago has 12 already and may get another 6 inches tonight.

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  65. Matt above said 18 plus. Are they not talking????

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    1. Scott has a reputation to uphold (most accurate), so I think he tends to stay more conservative then he used to. Matt on the other hand, can be a bit more bold? All speculation of course ;-)

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  66. Most areas will get 8 at best. The storm is moving fast.

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  67. Amazing that CCCC has been so quiet with this storm maybe he is just sick of the weather.

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  68. I really think they are underestimating the lake enhancement for Wayne county as well. I live in Gananda and I always get lake enhancement on a NE wind.

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  69. The storm may be progressive but it stretches all the way from Nebraska to NY. We will be in it for a while. It is a massive storm.

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  70. Heavier stuff is south of us like Toledo and Detroit. Rochester and areas north of the thruway will not get the heavy stuff as all the mets and NWS in Buffalo thought.

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    1. Really Anon, Really?!!! What are the credentials of anonymous worth? ZERO!

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  71. Matt said isolated spots 18+, Scott has up to 14 in isolated spots. Not that far off. I think you want 18 so bad that you expect everyone to get it. I'll trust Rochester's most accurate, and realize he may up his numbers once it starts flying here.

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  72. I am hoping for a good foot or more down here in southern Our girls are ready to get sledding! Does David still make an appearance on the blog anymore? I Charles pitch in earlier. Good to see some of us regulars from years past pop up now and then. Be safe my fellow bloggers and enjoy the big game this evening!

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  73. Scott has a new thread going for the blog. :)

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