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Sunday, February 1

Fluff factor a big role in tonight's storm

Written by:  Scott Hetsko


A potent and quick moving storm is spreading snow into our region this evening.  Snow will continue to fall heavy at times from late tonight through early Monday afternoon.  Because temperatures will be between 10 to 15 degrees during much of the storm, many will record 10-14" of snow.  

Northeast winds will pick up overnight causing low visibility for the drive to work tomorrow.  The timing of this storm will probably result in numerous closings on Monday. 

119 comments:

  1. Everyone must be at Wegmans.

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    1. Exactly! Everyone's getting their milk... because everyone knows how much milk we tend to drink during a snow storm! /s lol

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  2. Here is what my forecast is. I think there will be 2 areas north of 104 with over 15 inches of snow including Irondequoit near the bay and then in Hamlin area. Around that will be an area of 12 to 15 inches across Monroe and Wayne counties north of I 90 and then 8 to 12 inches across the rest of western NY.

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  3. A lot of areas west of us getting big lake enhancement with this storms.

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  4. It is really cold out there and as Scott said has to make snow ratios higher. Schools in Albany already starting to close.

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  5. I have not checked out any radar etc. is it getting close? Is it looking impressive?

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  6. Not even snowing out?

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  7. Radar looks weird because there is 2 big chunks of moisture coming up from the south looking like it is trying to catch the big glob coming at us?

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  8. It was not forecasted to begin snowing in our neck of the woods until a little later before anyone starts to freak out or call bust lol

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  9. From the NWS:
    "THINKING HERE HAS CHANGED LITTLE AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEARS
    DOWN ON THE REGION. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AN
    ALMOST CERTAINTY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD"

    This was in discussion mid afternoon before dinner. Sounds like things r right on track and we r not expecting anything significant until later tonight.

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  10. CCCC must be really partying for the SB very little posts today.

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  11. I'd love an update from his perspective but we have to realize that people on this blog don't work here and we have to be patient and respect their personal lives. That said, c'mon CCCC I know it's almost kick off but give us your thoughts

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  12. Football watch and Blizzard watch what a great combo

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  13. Charles we are not in a Blizzard watch darn.

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  14. Scott showed the radar on his telecast and boy does it look impressive. So much yet to come. He also said our area will be in the deformation area of the storm which means heavier snow. He thinks 6-10 just between midnight and 8 am I think he said

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  15. KW tweeted 12-16 by tomorrow evening. High ratios because of cold temperatures and lake enhancement the wildcards.

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  16. I ask again of everyone. No justification required. Gut feeling.

    A) Over Under on Storm Total at the airport.

    B) Probability most schools are OPEN.

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    1. 13.5 inches at the airport

      100% most schools closed

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  17. That sounds good to me. Cmon Seahawks!

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  18. KW tweet while we are forecasting 12-16 he has seen areas end up with 20 with this type of pattern do not be surprised.

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  19. school delays and closings are starting now.

    Finger Lakes Health College of Nursing: Delayed 2 hours
    Marion Whelan Nursing School: Delayed 2 hours

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  20. Not even snowing out?

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  21. 10.5" at airport, schools will be closed through out WNY 0% of schools opened tomorrow

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  22. If you look at the radar should be snowing in Rochester but it is not?

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  23. I looked outside here and it is snowing, just very lightly and the flake r small. It is coming. I think the air is so dry it is having a hard time getting going? Someone with more knowledge please chime in.

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  24. This is going to be an under achiever because it is to cold outside and dry air will kill it. Lucky to get a few inches by morning.

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  25. Wow nice try but I'm not buying any of the BS and if you do end up being correct I'll never post here again if we only get a few inches by morning.

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  26. Where is CCCC disappointing he has disappeared.

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  27. Everything I have read around the state is saying that it is a little slower than expected. They could also be dealing with Ptype issues in the ny / pa border area so let be thankful it's cold enough for all snow.

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  28. It is starting to snow harder in Hamlin. It only stopped for about two hours around 3PM. It is a light to moderate snow at the moment. The heavy snow should be here in a hour or so.

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  29. NWS forecast discussion: "It is highly possible some roads become impassable". I haven't seen any impassable roads in Hamlin since March of 1999. Tomorrow morning could be tricky to say the least.

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    1. Says the guy in a plow truck

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    2. Shouldn't you be sleeping? lol your probably watching the game? You will be busy for many hours I imagine. Do they start you even earlier than usual when it is supposed to be really bad?

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    3. I should probably be sleeping. Watching the radar out the window and football. No in Hamlin we start at the same time every morning it is snowing 3am wakeup call plowing at 4am. For ice storms we go in when ever it is occurring. We usually plow until 10pm. I am not sure who is plowing in Hamlin tonight must be only the b-shift guy.

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  30. Is this storm still on track for us?

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  31. I'm surprised there aren't more school closures already.

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  32. I'm surprised there aren't more school closures already.

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  33. It is snowing moderate to heavy now in Hamlin it is right on track here. So I would say yes somewhere around 8-12 inches still looks good with a few 12+ locations.

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  34. Kw tweeted 12-16 with some topping 20". Light snow in Gananda right now.

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  35. Nice. I definitely thought it was going to start snowing a little sooner but like I said earlier the discussions were that the storm is slower than expected to arrive.

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  36. Ain't a lick of snow yet here in Hilton.

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    1. You must live in the Hilton/Parma/Hamlin triangle. Sometime it never snows between Huffer and Moul Rd on Rt 259. Your kids will definitely have school in the morning.

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  37. KW new data and radar still leads him to 12-16 by Monday afternoon.

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  38. Storm on the radar now looks too far north now?

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  39. Not snowing what is happening?

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  40. Hope nothing happen to CCCC?

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  41. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 1, 2015 at 10:35 PM

    Snowing light - moderate in Penfield, been doing so for a few hours. About 2" so far.

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  42. Scott posted to watch his forecast tonight at 11:00 he said midnight to 7:00am snow fall rates will be 1 to 2 inches per hour. Not sure how schools will be open.

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  43. This place stinks.

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  44. Hopefully CCCC is alright. It's like being in the Super Bowl and your QB isn't there. This is the big show hope he checks in soon.

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  45. Wow this blog is quiet pretty surprising since Scott just said heavy snow over night with 6-10 by 7:00am and at least a foot for all by 5:00 tomorrow.

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    1. Surprised so few schools have called it yet. I have to imagine they'll all close tomorrow morning if the forecast veries. Right?

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  46. Too busy watching the game, but I'm going to let the storm do it's thing overnight and get some sleep. Enjoy the snow bloggers!

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  47. KW jusr said worst conditions will be 2 AM - 10 AM surprised schools still staying open...

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  48. Most schools are open as it is not as bad as they were calling for.

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  49. Just got the call that victor is closed. That's All I care about lol.

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  50. Well now that I can't fall back to sleep, the NWS says in the morning update that they expected it to be a little light for a few hours but when the deformation band sets up it will get heavier mid morning through afternoon. Any schools that think they can stay open might regret it if the snow does get heavier.

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  51. The airport has only recorded light snow since this started so we will definitely be on the lower end of the storm prediction. I only picked up about 4" so far in Gananda. The snow has never been heavy

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  52. I definitely got shafted with this storm. Penfield only recorded 4". That is what I received in Gananda. Other areas like Henrietta and Newark picked up over a ft. Wow.

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    1. Scott posted that from Greece to Penfield, he is getting reports of 8-12+ inches. Must be your ruler in Penfield is not working probably for you to only have 4".

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  53. There is more to come. You think you only got 4" since last night?

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    1. Yeah, that is it. I don't understand how other areas got so much but only 4" here. I am disappointed. BIG time.

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  54. Radar does not look goo either. Not even snowing here in Gananda anymore. Oh well. Off to work.

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  55. Most schools are closed. We got a good 10 inches in Greece.

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  56. There is little lul in the radar right now for east side. I'm going with the NWS discussion that said they expected this and do expect it to pick back up in a while before it finally tapers off. Even if we end up with less than forecasted I think schools did the right thing. We live on a main road in Farmington and it is snow covered even after plow went through.

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  57. CCCC now lives in Webster, and is probably experiencing what some of us who have lived down by the Lake have -- its called getting up early or spending a good portion of your day shoveling. Surprised that many of you who consistently complain about not being in the "sweet spot" for such winter storms are not doing more celebrating. Most of the talk is about schools closing. Wonder how many will feel when winter and possibly spring breaks will start to be shortened or cancelled due to the # of snow days taken just far by many of the schools. Road conditions are not the best -- be careful out there driving, it was a slow drive in this morning and with more snow to come -- it does not look to get any better.

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  58. This is victors first snow day. I think we will be ok in that respect. I'm sure some will say bust but not sure why. They didn't say 10-15 overnight it is a total by tonight so as you said more to come. Radar will fill in and as I look out window it is snowing harder now than it was 2 hours ago.

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  59. Road conditions are terrible. Drive careful -- lots of accidents, cars off the roads. For those who love for us to get this type of weather and snow -- enjoy!

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  60. Talking to people at work 4-6 inches is the norm. I am skeptical of 12" or more, I want to see what the airport recorded.

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    1. 4.9" officially at the airport as of 7am. Getting reports from 8-12" from Greece to Penfield to Mt. Morris. Flakes are starting to fluff up more now & another band of heavier snow getting ready to move in next 2 hours or so. I have a feeling many will come in closer to 12" than the lower 8" in that range.

      Stacey

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    2. The people at your work don't know how to measure. There's almost a foot on the ground in Chili and all of the reports around Rochester are 8-14 already on the ground.

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    3. Foot easy in Irondequoit....

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  61. Seems like it would be very hard to get a real reading anywhere. Mind you I haven't ventured outside yet, but I see areas in my yard that actually have less snow today then they did yesterday. This wind has really blown everything around, including the fresh lake powder we got at the end of last week. My drifts are impressive, but know those measurements don't matter. Where should I measure from today, when there doesn't seem to be any non-wind-blown/drift areas!

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    1. Try to find a spot that is sheltered from the wind but tht still gets the fu snow. My back yard is fenced and the deck I back there so it is easier to measure there. It's a six foot tall fence so wind doesn't matter really .

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 2, 2015 at 9:13 AM

      We have had lots of FU snow already this season…tends to go south or cut west.

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  62. 7" in Pittsford by the Thruway.

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  63. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 2, 2015 at 9:11 AM

    Snowdog - what is wrong with you? Penfield, east of 250, has at least 8", probably more. I can tell this just by looking out the window and seeing the blue spruce trees I planted last spring are almost buried. Still snowing hard.

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    1. Snowdog must have a dry black cloud follow him around!

      Did you also see his post at 4:55 this morning say most schools open? Does he not realize that unless they cancel the night before that they wait till after 5am? Most schools are cancelled today!

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  64. I'm in Macedon and probably got 5 inches last night. Another couple today so far. Thinking Scott was spot on with his 8 to 12 total, and glad he didn't fall for the 18 to 20 inch hype.

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    1. It all depends on where you live -- North Greece and closer to the Lake could see 18+ or 2 feet of snow. It is possible.

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  65. CCCC is SILENT -- maybe he is out building a snowman or snow-woman. Surprise not on blog and bragging about how he called this one, or even cut/paste posts from other website and listed them under CCCC.

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  66. My parents live in Chili, literally 2 miles away from the airport. I stopped by this morning and there is no way the airport received less than 5"...

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  67. Just measured in Greece. Easily 8-12" depending on the spot. Drifts over 18".

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  68. Did the driveway about an hour ago. I'd say there was between 8-10 inches since it all started. Seemed like a lot more with the snow blower!

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  69. Total rip city all morning long. I can't even tell how much has fallen so far because there's so much drifting, but I would guess about 10 inches. The deformation zone is just beginning to work its way through. Needless to say my early call is going to bust way low with some places already reporting well over a foot.

    I was busy apartment hunting and watching the superbowl yesterday which is why I wasn't around.

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  70. The plow crews for my apartment complex decided to pile a whole bunch of snow right in front of my window, which is a bit disappointing since it spoils the view from indoors. I have christened the pile as Mount Weenie.

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  71. Ha ha CCCC we know it is fantasy land but did you see the OOz GFD last night. Believe 35 inches for us?

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    1. I already saved that map to my porn drive and printed 400 copies of it to plaster on my wall.

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    2. Ha Ha truly fantasy land.

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  72. Any sense of when the snow will let up. Right now it does not look like it will for several more hours. Local weather folks have said early afternoon, but with the way it is still snowing -- figured it will be later afternoon -- early evening. If the drive into work this morning was challenging; can't wait to see what it will be like driving home. Hopefully the maintenance people for my apartment bldg. will be plowing, and it was a challenging getting out this morning, especially at the entrance where the City/County plows - plowed and created a large pile of snow. Was not fun.

    Why are more posting on the blog -- especially those who LOVE this type of weather and snow event. Figured they would be posting allot more than they are.

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  73. Glad to have you back on here. So is it true that there is still some heavy snow to work into the eastern suburbs? I don't want it to stop yet! Haven't seen it snow this hard or steady all winter!

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    1. Looks like about one more hour of heavier stuff before a transition to lighter snow for the rest of the afternoon.

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    2. Farmington must be you can afford to be home, while the rest of us have to work and drive in this stuff. Saw multiple accidents this morning -- was not a fun drive in, even at less than 20 mph.

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    3. Anonymous 12:31, I am a teacher so yeah I am off today. I am sorry you have to work but if you read a post of mine last night I think I said that I don't wish anyone harm to life or property. I was a volunteer firefighter for several years am I have seen my share of accidents, some fatal. So I understand the severity of the conditions, does not meAn I can't like the snow either.

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  74. Ok. Looking out window in Farmington right now it is snowing heaviest it has all morning.

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  75. CCCC any concerns with wind chill tomorrow morning? Advisery/warnings possible?

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    1. Doesn't look like any headlines will be needed at this point.

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  76. Had about 4" this Am at around 7am like I said. The airport had 4.9". Even Kevin tweeted 4" in Penfiled as of 7am. Not sure why people do not believe the airport only had 4.9" as of 7am. I believe it. Hopefull the heavy snow this AM added to my total. My area seemed to be dry slotted a lot last night. I am happy with what we picked up. Looks like winter now. More snow this week as well.

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    1. Honestly a lot of those morning reports look pretty dodgy. The 18 inch measurement from Dansville that KW tweeted this morning is probably the most suspect, especially since nearby spotters chimed in with about 10 inches less. All I know for sure is that my neighborhood was under light radar returns for much of the night and still picked up around 6 inches or so, and I'm pretty far north of the airport where better returns occurred. Then there's the one spotter near there that reported 9 inches at the same time that the airport number came in. So there are valid reasons to be suspicious.

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  77. Still puking cottony fluff right now, but the flakes are noticeably larger than before. Lake Ontario is beginning to take the reigns.

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    1. So we can expect more snow; even with the Winter Storm Warning having been cancelled. How much more due to lake effect?

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    2. Anything else today will be light maybe an inch or 2 at best for lake shore counties fon light lake effect. Looks like just nuisance snow from here on out.

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  78. Why cant we get good lake effect after these storms pass. Too dry???

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    1. Yep. Surface high pressure typically moves in once the storm passes.

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  79. Are the roads better now than this morning?

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    1. Depends on where you are heading. Most of the main roads are passable where you can see a lane or two, but still slow driving. Side roads are not the best. Heard that 31F was horrible. So I think it all depends on where you are heading and how well that City/Town has done with their plowing. Either way, it is a slow go.

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  80. Just throwing it out there based on the most recent GFS/Euro runs the next 8 days could be interesting just saying. Think that pattern CCCC has talked about has switched to being favorable for western NY.

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  81. I'm sure some on here will not like to hear that but most of us like "interesting". We know at least it will be cold enough. On tv Stacy mentioned something could brew late weekend. The NWS talks vaguely about some light snow showers. I feel like tht is how they categorize anything of substance that is too at away for them to speculate about so they just some " light snow showers". Clipper Wednesday just enough to freshen up the color. 1-3 they say.

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    1. Heard some say to look for another Winter Storm heading our way for latter part of weekend; possibly Sunday into Monday again. Who knows maybe every Sunday/Monday for the month of February we can get a Winter Storm with 10-18+ inches of snow each time. It was kind of neat driving into work this morning -- like traveling in a snow globe. Just disappointed that it has stopped snowing -- was looking for a little bit more -- perhaps another 6-8 inches to add to what we have. Would have been nice.

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  82. Wind Chill Advisories now up. Can you say polar vortex.

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  83. Slow down possible storm next Sunday but big difference models show HP more over great lakes that will keep this one down south and not let it come north. We got lucky the HP was more west and did not push yesterdays storm south.

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  84. Darn, it would be fun to get two Winter Storms of 12+ inches in a 7-10 day period of time. Finger crossed though.

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