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Monday, February 2

BIG, FLUFFY SNOW WINDING DOWN.


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

The perfect track for a lake enhanced storm over Western New York today!  If you take away the lake, we'd would have only record about 6-12" of snow but the extra moisture from Ontario supplied another 6-8" near the lake shore!  We don't foresee another system this potent in our forecast but a persistent upper air  trough will continue to swing quick moving clippers into the Northeast.

The picture below was taken on Route 104 this morning.  Appropriate for the day I think!





98 comments:

  1. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 2, 2015 at 4:38 PM

    Definitely impressive. Just got done running the snowblower. I would say east Penfield got about 10-12". Scott, your spray of blue stopped too short. Reports from northern Oswego Co. were upwards of a foot. 6"+ into St. Lawrence Co!

    Hard to believe, but the current snow depth exceeds the amount on the ground at any time last year here at my house! Things are buried that were not buried at any point last winter!

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  2. I'd rather drive in a whiteout than a brownout.

    Hate when the roads get so backed up we get brownout.

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  3. 17 inches in Clarendon on 237. We had 13.5 at 8 am. That's a good reading from my "snow gage", not a drift. Ans still snowing.

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  4. The snow is about six inches past my knees in spots where drifting happened. Some of that is stuff that was already on the ground, but I'd say around 14 or 15 inches was the general rule for this storm.

    Whoever does the official measuring at KROC is an incompetent bozo who needs to be fired ASAP, because this has to be the third or fourth time since last November that they've screwed up the measuring and had to submit "MM" for the daily snow report. Something tells me they're going to lowball the final estimate too.

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  5. Snow not showing up on radar, but it's been snowing moderately in Fairport for a while.

    Nice storm and perfect forecast!

    Still say 75"-85" total for winter, and hoping mother nature proves me wrong. Febs off to a nice start!
    Andy

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  6. It's fitting that this storm occurred on Groundhog's Day as its like the 2007 Valentine's Day snow storm happened all over again. Pretty much identical in timing and amounts, depending on if KROC can get their Sh#& together and learn to use a ruler...

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  7. If the Euro and UKMET verified then we'd be doing this whole song and dance all over again in 3 days. And if the whole Euro run verified then we'd be digging our way through 2-3 feet of snow during the next ten days. Too bad neither of those things are going to happen.

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  8. CCCC did you see the wind chill projections in 10 days on the GFS? Ha ha that is fantasy land too.

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    Replies
    1. Utter insanity. I love digital weather conditions.

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  9. I would say about 12-14 here in Gananda. Lightfluff falling no. This snow is not going anywhere soon. Many clippers to follow the next 10 days.

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  10. Both GJ and KW spoke briefly of a possible storm tracking similar to today for Thursday... Did that just creep up today because no one mentioned anything up until now. They both didn't say "it is going to happen" but they both seemed interested. Is this anything to pay attention to?

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    Replies
    1. It's been showing on the Euro for a few runs, and its ensemble mean also has it but further south and east. What really adds weight to the potential IMO is that the UKMET also has it, and it tracks close enough for another round of significant snow in each of the past two runs. That particular model was the first one to depict our most recent storm as far north as it eventually tracked, and was remarkably steady on that track within 72 hours. No other model is nearly as enthused though.

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    2. And yes, I know I said earlier that it's "not going to happen." The UKMET adds weight but the Euro ensemble mean holds the most by far, so that's what I'm riding.

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    3. Hey local weather folks can do better than just "talking or mentioning" Thursday's potential. Matter of fact, days before Sunday/Monday's Winter Storm they were talking about preparing people for the Storm. The only aspect they did not have was the amount of snow, but they still began to prepare. It is Tuesday, you would think if this is a possibility they would at least begin to talk more seriously about it vs. "mentioning it briefing". Matter of fact KW seemed to be more focused on potential Winter Storm again for Sunday/Monday.

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  11. Ok so it's at least something to track, nothing to write off yet? I know some hate to drive in it and it can be dangerous. Snow gets the contractors out plowing making money and had some other benefits. I for one don't mid driving in it at all. I've never been scared to drive even in the worst condition. Uneasy yes, if kids r with and we have to travel through it. You have to respect the conditions and drive accordingly.

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    Replies
    1. Nothing to write off but also not something to hold your breath about.

      I really don't mind driving in snow, if anything it makes my existence even more interesting. Risky situations can be fun as long as you know what you're doing.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 3, 2015 at 6:40 AM

      Driving in snow is easy. I am currently instructing a teenager on driving (painful). I have told him to remember the three S's…smooth…steady…slow. And keep your distance. That will get him started. Experience will close the gaps.

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  12. Why do your other forum gurus say about Thursday's potential? You have some guys tht have had some interesting thoughts/ data/ opinions about these storms.

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  13. Definitely something to watch, but too much inconsistency at the moment. And I agree with CCCC on the fact that the UKMET had the last storm pegged. Maybe it's a more reliable model when were in this type of pattern...

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  14. I just see weak clippers coming every 2-3 days, nothing big like we just had.

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    Replies
    1. You said that 5 days ago too

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  15. Boston has gotten 7 days straight of 7+ inches of snow as of Monday. Disappointed that it is not Rochester experiencing this. If we did that would give us an additional 49+ inches of snow. However, on the bright side KW talked last night, love when he uses such words as "sizable, significant, sensational" Winter Storm watching for Sunday into Monday. Is it hype for ratings or is he onto something.

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  16. CCCC next time we have a Winter Storm Watch/Warning -- don't disappear from the blog. Many of us count on you to provide your expert opinion as to the forecast so that we can prepare. Look at how many posted "Where is CCCC?" "Waiting to hear from CCCC as to his opinion?" Where is CCCC, want to know what he is seeing?" Remember, you have put yourself in this position, and now we count on you to be there and let us know what you are seeing, so we can prepare for the weather that is coming out way.

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    Replies
    1. Send a check to ....CCCC ...Webster, NY

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    2. One tiny problem though: I couldn't do anything about being away. First I wasn't near a computer because I had appointments for prospective apartments so that I won't have to spend the first few days of March living in a cardboard box. Then I wasn't near a computer because I was at a superbowl party and couldn't be bothered to take a detour to my current apartment just to leave a blog post. Then I didn't bother getting on the computer because I was hell bent on sleeping, as in I conked out essentially the moment I walked through the door. Life sometimes happens at very bad times, nothing can be done about it. And besides, I'm not the only source of information out there by a long shot. You can follow any one of our local meteorologists on Twitter, or any number of nationally known experts such as Bernie Rayno or Brett Anderson. Then there's the local news for full forecasts, and even TWC when they aren't airing reality shows. Or if you're willing to deal with emotional weenies you can venture onto AmericanWx or the AccuWx forum, both of which are brimming with very knowledgeable experts to go along with the weenies. Point being, I'm one person with a life outside of this blog, not a limitless info machine. And there are many more reliable ways to acquire pertinent information than some random twenty-something amateur. There are people whose job it is to keep you updated, my job is to write code. I'm just here out of the goodness of my crusty shriveled heart.

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  17. Well again the Sunday/Monday time frame looks interesting again on the 12z GFS. Now again it is 6 days away bot not like it is 10-14 days away too. I think the new GFS has been very good with the last 2 storms in the mid and long range time frame.

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  18. Looks like the storm we just had. Very similar.

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  19. Oh look, the estimated snow total at the airport was lowballed. Again. The next time I see "FAA Contractor" next to our official spotter number I'm going to haul my ass to the airport and take about 400 measurements on my own, and I guarantee they will average at least a few inches higher than the "official" number.

    I haven't had much time to look deeply into the Sunday/Monday potential since that nasty old "life" thing has decided to butt in again.

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  20. Anything for Thursday or is it too far south or coastal?

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  21. Thursday NBD but 12z Euro came in like 12z GFS which was a good run for us but remember it is 6 days away.

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    Replies
    1. Bob, are you talking about Sunday/Monday potential Winter Storm that you are referring to being 6 days away. The e-mail is confusing as you mention Thursday and when 6 days away. Clarify.

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  22. Even at 6 days out is it showing up the same way the GHD storm showed up?

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  23. We have several opportunites for snow this week and next week. Looking good.

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  24. Anything about Thursday; KW has talked about the potential for a sizable, significant Winter Storm.

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  25. Is another Winter Storm expected for Sunday/Monday, as KW keeps using the words "sizable, sensational, significant Winter Storm" watch for Sunday into Monday. Have a feeling we might begin to see a pattern of Sunday/Monday Winter Storms. Imagine another 15+ inches of snow. Who says that Boston and Chicago get all of the fun. All we need know is a blizzard.

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    Replies
    1. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 6 weeks. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    2. Think any storm next Sunday will get pushed south with a strong HP over Quebec this time Most of the Euro ensembles are showing it south.

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  26. Wunderground's "Best Forecast" option says 1-3" Weds, 1-3" again Saturday and 8-12" Sunday and Sunday night. I know these are automated forecasts, but Sunday has steadily increased.

    Not that I put much credence in these automated forecasts but it shows potential.

    Andy

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  27. 18z GFS is south and anon above you may be correct. The high to the north is in a much different position than the storm yesterday. I agree that will be the shield to keep this one more south.

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  28. Everyone wrote off the last storm early on I stick with it just on a gut/hope feeling. Wi do the same with this one until the fat lady sings. I know your saying the HP north is different this time but I don't see any temps lower than what we had during previous storm so why is it going to be worse this time? Is it possible the models will back off the northern cold enough?

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  29. Bob remember what the last storm did. The models initially showed it South and then each day brought it back North. Don't go model by model as CCC states. They will fluctuate until 2 days before the storm. It is 6 days away.

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  30. NWS forecast discussion definitely paints a snowy picture for WNY the next 7 days. Maybe winters slow start will soon be long forgotten.

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    Replies
    1. I agree. Reading it this morning it speaks of some snow just about every day. With some possible decent make effect for Rochester Thursday . Supposed to be a quick heavy burst of snow this afternoon for 2-3 inches. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

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    2. Perhaps we can get 3-5 inches of snow every day; which will help us to begin to add to our totals for snow fall for the winter. We can do it -- just have to keep hoping and praying. This light fluffy stuff is not want we need -- we need a blizzard with significant snow totals.

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  31. Are they finally acknowledging that a potential exists this weekend? Yesterday they made it sound like a non issue! They r so careful not to speculate too much which I guess I can't blame them

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  32. According to KW last night potential for 5-6 inches of snow by Thursday morning. Add that to the snow we got on Monday -- could be close to 20+ inches of show for the week. Looking for another 12+ inches of snow Sunday into Monday. Love it when 10 uses works such as sizable, significant Winter Storm watch for end of weekend. Always interesting to see how KW and JN begin to perk up for these types of forecast. they seemed to have let down after Monday's Winter Storm ended.

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  33. I don't see a significant event Sunday/Monday. Not sure what they are seeing.

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  34. When will New8 acknowledge the storm coming this weekend?? It's looking like 10+ inches! Why are they always last to acknowledge it? Asleep at the wheel Zzzzzzzzzz....Come on News8 stop leaving us all hangin'!

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  35. Stop Anon 7:37 do not start. There is for sure looking like the potential for a significant storm early next week. But where it will hit will not be known until Saturday at the earliest like last weekend. But I will say this ALL the models are showing a pretty BIG storm that could be a longer duration one.

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    Replies
    1. I know and I get that Bob, but why can't they join the chatter and speculation like we do? I'm not expecting them to issue a forecast and snow totals 6 days out, but they could at least provide some input/speculation on what "could" happen here in the blog...I think we would all be lost without CCCC, News8 should just throw him a job

      And I agree, Sunday/Monday looks like it may be bigger, better, and longer than last weekend's storm!

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    2. In the 6am hour this morning Stacey mentioned the possibility of another snowfall like the one we still have. News 8 isn't about going crazy with hype like KW and others are. Scott said during yesterday's telecast that there is a system worth watching this weekend as well.

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    3. They still should participate more on the blog. They don't update nearly as much as they could/should!

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    4. SCOTT!! THE MEATLOAF!!....WE WANT IT NOW!!

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    5. CCCC has made it clear that he does not expect people on the blog to wait for him to give his expertise. He will when he is able to; otherwise, as he has said before -- he has a life outside of this blog and plans to live it. So he will post when he is able and want to.

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    6. Agree, read his from 2/3 at 12:06pm; he make it clear where he stands on posting on the blog, and his life.

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  36. I dont see it. What am I missing.

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    Replies
    1. your dutch oven.

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    2. http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/another-winter-storm-northeast-late-week

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    3. Snow. More Snow. Also.. A Brain..

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  37. Love it. See below:

    BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
    THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONROE AND WESTERN WAYNE
    COUNTIES THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
    NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY.

    ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
    THIS MAY PRODUCE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL
    FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

    A FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
    THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
    FRONTAL ZONE AND PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
    SNOW OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW
    WILL ALLOW SNOW AMOUNTS TO ADD UP OVER TIME.

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  38. 12z GFS is an awful run for us.

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    Replies
    1. You cant go by just what one model states. There are many many models. And it is early. Remember last weeks storm.

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  39. CCCC must be really busy with life not even a lunch post?

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    Replies
    1. Read his 2/3 at 12:06pm post, and he pretty much explains his position about posting on the blog and what bloggers can expect from him.

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  40. Evening commute looks to be challenging with snow and freezing drizzle.

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  41. Not sure what you looked at Anon 11:40 but the 12z GFS shows us getting 10-12 inches by next Tuesday.

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  42. From KW:

    Still watching Sunday/early next week for potential prolonged period of snowfall. Canadian model very bullish on amnts. But it's very early.

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  43. Wunderground has tweaked their "Best Forecast" model from what I posted last night. Now for Saturday 3"-5", Sunday 3"-5" and Monday 1"-3".

    While I don't put a lot in these automated forecasts, FWIW they did have the 1"-3" for today in their forecast several days ago.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Good guess. Automated forecasts are crap.

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  44. 12z Euro also puts over 12 inch range. The Canadian is not going to verify imo that model has been bad. But again every model for several runs has us in double digit numbers for this storm. Just have to keep monitoring but nothing will be solidified until Friday/Saturday runs. I am hoping CCCC at some point will chime in again.

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  45. Read CCCC 2/3 at 12:06pm post, and he pretty much explains his position about posting on the blog and what bloggers can expect from him.

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  46. I forgot to mention the storm is a long duration storm and the snow will not be falling at a heavy pace at all. In fact it looks to be mostly light at this time. So it will be a very manageable storm. This past weekend would be harder to manage than this one.

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    Replies
    1. It has to fall in a light to at least moderate to give us over 12"

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  47. Lake effect snow advisories up for Monroe and Wayne counties. Total by Friday morning 6-12". More snow over the weekend which could be significant as well. The snow piles will get higher and higher. Keep it coming.

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  48. This is what we all were wishing for! Good things come to those who wait.

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  49. Replies
    1. CCCC throwing in his 2 cents again. He said there would be a pattern of change.

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  50. Based on what the ensemble means are showing I can't help but think that we're going to be running solidly above average on snowfall by Valentines Day. The next 5 days alone could bring February up near the average for the entire month.

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  51. Ok bloggers I have a question for you: I haven't had time to look into things the way I'd like and I have to drive the thruway from Syracuse to roc either tonight or early tomorrow am (be in roc by 630am thurs). Please help me out and let me know when I should make the trip and (if you feel so inclined) why. Thanks!!

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    Replies
    1. Early tomorrow AM should afford a break between the heavier synoptic snow and the onset of eastward moving lake effect. Tonight will be trickier with synoptic snow moving through. So I'd go with tomorrow AM.

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  52. Good call CCCC. TWC showed some type of coastal coming up from the south like money or something, but GJ just talked about same time frame and showed something similar to GHD track. Are these one in the same or two different schools of thought?

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    Replies
    1. We aren't getting a pure coastal anytime soon if that's what TWC was implying. I didn't see GJ's depiction but it seems much closer to the eventual reality we're looking at right now.

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    2. What are we looking at for the weekend. Hearing lots of mentions about another Winter Storm, possibly longer and more intense than this last one. Predicting over foot of snow possible overnight on Sunday. What are you seeing?

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    3. Longer duration than the last one for sure, probably not as intense though. It looks more like a train of disturbances rather than a single storm system. Snow amounts remain uncertain at the moment but they could be significant over the course of the weekend.

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  53. That is what I have been hearing. Is there data or past situations that are similar to this? I don't recall this being something I have seen in the recent past.

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    Replies
    1. I can't recall any either. I'll have to look into what the SLU CIPS site has to offer on the matter.

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  54. Sure picked a great time to go to Wegmans...right as the snow began to pick up. About a quarter inch down so far.

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  55. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F096/EC_096/COOPmeangfs212F096.png

    That mean blends about a 50/50 mixture of significant events and lesser events:

    http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&model=GFS212

    Scroll down to where it says "COOP SNOW" on the left side, then scroll horizontally to see all of the analog snow maps.

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  56. I'll update the blog later this morning, but my feeling is we will get little bits and pieces into early next week - 4" here, 6" in the stronger systems, but I'm not convinced we will see another footer this weekend. Still a little early to set that in stone. More to come!

    Stacey

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  57. They should cancel the lake effect advisories. It completely shut down. Picked up a few inches last night.

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  58. We may not get a footer snowstorm, but by the time Tuesday comes around it will add up to over a foot I believe.

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  59. Yeah the lake effect isn't looking as impressive as the NWS was discussing yesterday. They painted a very snowy picture south of the lake after the little clipper went through.

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  60. Will Winter Weather Advisories, Watch, or Warning go up this weekend. If so, when as 10 is still talking about significant, sizable snow for Sunday into Monday. Thoughts?

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  61. I would say advisories since it still looks like a prolonged period of light to moderate snow through Tuesday. It will add up though. I do not see a BIG storm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KW and JN still talking about sizable, significant snow for Sunday night into Monday. They were pretty on target with this last Winter Storm; so I would not count out what they are saying.

      Now just needs to figured out where to put all of the snow -- mounts of snow in my apt parking lot are getting bigger and bigger, and beginning to take up more parking spaces.

      Delete

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