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Thursday, February 5

Watching the Weekend

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

So, that last storm was a good one, eh? Many ended up with a foot + of snow by Monday evening. And now you're (we're) all asking, "will we do it again a week later?" Maybe. Maybe not. With the pattern setting up, I'll say that by Tuesday, I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see 12" TOTAL, but not necessarily all at once. A big trough in the Northeast, a nearly stationary front over or just south of us, plus several weak disturbances = a very active few days ahead, but the timing and strength of those disturbances are very much in question still. It is still looking like the shortwave with the biggest impact will be Sunday evening/Monday, but in all honesty, it may be a nearly steady snowfall from Saturday-Monday, with periods of moderate to heavier snow thrown in. Bottom line - it will be a snowy and wintry period, and we will continue to make up for what January didn't deliver in the snowfall department. Whether or not the airport will accurately record that snow...that's a different variable in itself!

174 comments:

  1. I am not sure what is happening with the models then. Many have pointed to 10-12 inches of snow Sunday into Monday. Does that mean it is not in one storm but what we have already received?

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  2. There is not much there storm wise. A bunch of little storms and they are very disorganized. This is not a big deal and certainly nothing like last weekend.

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    Replies
    1. Hate to differ with you but 10-12" overnight into Monday is a BIG deal!

      Delete
  3. Wunderground "Best Forecast" is saying 3-5 for each of Saturday, Sunday, Monday. So there is definitely potential there, especially if news 8 is saying it as well.

    I'm sticking to my end of December prediction of 75-85 for the season and it looks like the guys measuring at the airport will help me be right... LOL!

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Are you looking for Rochester or a different county? I'm seeing 3-5 Saturday night but Sunday, Sunday night and Monday all being 1-3.

      Delete
  4. Um we are NOT getting 10-12" overnight LOL...Sorry folks but this one is going to be NBD! Idk why News8 is hyping this thing up...3-5" is NBD at all...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No one is hyping in the least. Learn to read or go play in traffic at night wearing dark clothes.

      Delete
  5. Well I am confused. I look at the latest 12z GFS that just came out and it shows us in the 12-14 inch snow range? Yet no met seems like there is a storm coming? Is this total counting last Mondays storm? Help me out please.

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  6. I never said we are getting 12" overnight. I said wouldn't be surprised if we got 12" from Saturday THROUGH Tuesday. Total. In bits and chunks. Still too far even to gd specific about the Sunday/Monday timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not to "gd specific"...oops! To GET specific about Sunday/Monday. Sorry folks!

      Stacey

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    2. Happy national weather person day Stacey!

      Delete
  7. No new tweets from KW either.

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  8. Thanks so I gues what I am asking is to me the GFS shows us in a 12-14 inch range out to 129 hours so that 12-14 range starts with any accumulating snow from now until Tuesday. Because last Friday models started converging on 10-12 inches from a storm this past Sunday/Monday. We got that and more in just that 12 hour period. Just wondering what is different here when I am reading the models? Just wondering

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    Replies
    1. Yes, any new accumulating snow starts from basically this morning and just keeps adding on. Depending on what parameter you're looking at, you can see snowfall accumulations broken down differently, like every 3 or 6 hours. But you are likely looking at total accumulating snowfall starting now.

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  9. I'm going to reiterate what Stacey already pointed out twice: this is a long duration series of disturbances over the course of several days which could add up to 12+, not a quick hitting 12+ from one storm like we had earlier this week. It'll be much easier to manage for that reason alone, but final amounts could still be similar over a much longer period. So instead of one big dollar bill it's going to be more like a parade of dimes and quarters.

    It appears that mixing might become an issue across the southern tier with the strongest disturbance late in the weekend, perhaps reaching as far north as the lower Genesee Valley.

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    Replies
    1. Aren't the temperatures going to be higher for these disturbances too? That will help with the roads at least better than the last one.

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    2. What helps with the roads even better is to have the snow plows out in a more timely fashion that this last time around. Then tend to forget about those who have to be to work by 6am vs. 8am.

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    3. Especially those who work on Sunday (I'm a church organist!)

      The only reason the plows were out last SUnday morning was because it was SUper Bowl Sunday. Any other sunday they sleep in...

      Delete
    4. LOL, sleep in that is a good one.

      Delete
  10. Just cannot get good lake effect this year.

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  11. For what it is worth 12z Euro still shows us with 12-18 inches by Tuesday,

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  12. If KW is not tweeting anything out after the most recent model runs then this is not any thing worth while this weekend.

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  13. It is worth while if we get snow. If anyone wAs thinking we were getting a big storm and all at once no one here portrayed that. Snowy pattern is good for winter. That's wht winter is for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No one on the site was thinking a big storm, simply reading what the models, maps, and charts are showing. Plus when you had KW and JN a couple of days ago using the words such as "sizable, significant, sensational Winter Storm" expected for Sunday into Monday; plus with the models showing 12-18 or more inches -- you begin to question out loud.

      Delete
  14. From Mr. Hetsko on facebook: "Possible significant snow again Sunday and Monday...stay tuned..." It's still early, and everyone downplaying the end of the weekend event could be in for a surprise. Or maybe not, and the boundary will continue to push north and we'll all be in the rain mix lol. Point is, we don't know for sure right now, and there's nothing that any speculating will do to help that!

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  15. The point is tht just because KW or JN does not tweet constantly about something it does not mean you should forget about it. That's all I was trying to say. And i just wanted to make it clear that it is not one giant LP riding through and giving us the snow.

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  16. And in not sure where the judgement/ animosity comes from directed towards the plow drivers. They don't work on weekends unless it snows so be nice to them as they've missing family time to plow for you. And main roads come first if someone lives in out skirts it could take longer. Just saying don't bite the hand that feeds you ( or something like that.)

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    Replies
    1. Obviously you don't live in the City of Rochester as many of the side streets were barely plowed early Monday morning. You try getting to work and driving your car down a street with 8+ inches of snow.

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    2. I drive a 4x4 and live in the country so it's a non issue in terms of driving. Whether the road is plowed or not I can make it. There are hundreds of miles of streets in city. I imagine it takes a while to get to all them. I see your dilemma but they probably do the best they can.

      Delete
  17. From the NWS:

    THE
    FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO PRODUCE MUCH
    STRONGER QG FORCING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE
    SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD PICK UP 4 TO
    7 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS
    LARGELY HINGE ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW HOLDING COURSE...AND
    WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES ONCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FOR
    NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IN THE HWO.

    WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD ADD UP TO A
    FOOT OR MORE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
    THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A THREE DAY PERIOD. THE
    PROLONGED LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY NOT CAUSE MUCH
    IMPACT...AS SNOW REMOVAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH THE
    SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD WHICH BEARS WATCHING REMAINS SUNDAY
    NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME TOGETHER AS MODELS
    ARE SUGGESTING...THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A TOUGH ONE.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which is exactly what happened this past weekend. Come on 7" of snow overnight is not a big deal -- you try shoveling that much more in the morning to get your car out. Folks needs to stop down playing the significance of the storm which is heading out way; and be prepared for it.

      Delete
  18. At this point we need to ignore everyone except for CCCC who has been the one voice of consistency over the past couple of days concerning the winter storm for this weekend. Even the local weather professionals are not consistent with each other, even those who work together. All are beginning to talk about potential Winter Storm for Sunday into Monday. So if you have medium snow fall over a prolonged period of time (Sunday night into Monday) -- you could have 12+ inches of snow by morning. None of this 2-3 inches per day over 4 days will add up to 6-12 inches. Again, need to be kept informed. CCCC what is your opinion and forecast for the weekend, especially Sunday into Monday?

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  19. The most significant period will be Sunday/ Monday as they stated but even then that is not 12" overnight. They r saying 4-7. I don't think there needs to be any alarm at this pour just be awar of the snow potential. We do live in an area tht is used to snow.

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  20. I'm a bit disturbed by the mesoscale models being so far north with this thing, enough to cut down pretty drastically on snowfall. The SREF taken verbatim would even be a mostly rain event. I'm even more disturbed by the fact that all of the global models are ticking north over the past few days, and it's definitely more than just run-to-run noise. Many arguments were made for that trend halting or reversing with the last storm, but it kept going all the way through nowcasting time. That said, I've seen this sort of trend reverse in the day or two leading up to a storm, and it's not an exceedingly rare occurrence. Definitely not the time to be mashing any panic buttons, and I won't go all in on a crazy warm solution like what the SREF has, but I have to hedge towards at least some mixed precipitation occurring uncomfortably close by. Any north trend at this range has to be monitored very carefully, this one is no exception.

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  21. I will say this Scott definitely monitoring this one. he showed a computer model that put 16 inches in Rochester and he pointed out for sure this is NOT his forecast. But he was more bullish than even the more liberal KW about the snow. For sure concerned about mixing issues south. Thus CCCC is right have to keep watching how far north the stationary front moves. But worth watching for Sunday/Monday.

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  22. It's always complex here in WNY! Mother Nature does not make it easy on the local Mets .

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  23. KW does not seem too excited from watching him at 6. See below.

    Still expecting long duration snowfall Sat pm-Mon (& some ice). Not a storm-just moisture pooled on front that will pile up inches over time

    ReplyDelete
  24. I've followed Don Paul for many years now, and he is always even-keeled and rather conservative with his outlooks especially in the long range. So it's quite unsettling that he posted the following to his blog just now:

    "With the considerable help of long range forecaster Dr. Judah Cohen, I’m stuck with the unpleasant task of telling people we are nowhere near out of this frigid mess. There is even some chance matters may grow worse. Cohen writes of evidence in the GEFS ensemble and less robust evidence in the ECMWF that the blocking in the North Atlantic which has been absent most of the winter is going to begin to develop. The polar vortex which has been settled lately over the far north of Eurasia is going to drift back toward the north pole. What this favors is a strengthening of the western ridge, which teleconnects with a strengthening of the eastern trough, and more frigid air pouring not only into the NE but retrograding into the central states as well. These teleconnections favor more cross-polar flow. In addition, at about the same time the N Atlantic ridging develops, the MJO will be entering what’s called phase 7 & 8, which correlates with below average temperatures in our part of the country. It’s far from certain that the N Atlantic blocking will become strong, but if it does the NAO would finally go strongly negative–it’s been a nonfactor this winter–and the AO (currently weakly & briefly negative before it goes positive again next week) would go negative as well. The fact that the AO has been positive the majority of the time in the last 4-5 weeks speaks to how poor a predictor in this winter as to cold and snow in the east/NE.

    This pattern, with minor variations, is expected to persist into early March in Cohen’s eyes, as I’d speculated the other night on the previous thread. This is a draining, disruptive pattern leading to economic dislocation, high energy costs, and damage to our infrastructure. If we’re correct, this will be one of the longest cold periods in a number of years."

    I usually pull hard for weather extremes to occur in my backyard, but this is just plain excessive in my view. Big ticket weather is fun until it starts creating an impact of that magnitude. I will pray to whatever god there might be that we don't see this pattern materialize to its full potential.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So. Continued below normal temps. January was 5.2 degrees below normal. Does this mean we can exoect even colder?

      What does that mean for Snowstorms. More likely, less likely? Translate please.

      Delete
    2. Colder for sure if that outlook verifies. Snow chances can't be resolved from this far out in time, but at a glance I would imagine it wouldn't be a big storm pattern.

      Delete
    3. Come on -- folks love this type of weather and have been asking for it since November. Who cares about the potential impact as long as we get to enjoy this type of weather. Snow crunching under your boots, seeing your breath, snow. it is what many on the blog have been praying to the SNOW GOD for. So enjoy the coming months.

      Delete
  25. This is what has been projected all along. It is just a snowy 2-3 days. It will add up as you said but not a true storm. NWS seemed interested in the Sunday night/ Monday timeframe for a decent amount mYbe over 7".

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  26. Different people will frame an event in different ways. KW being less excited about a snow event doesn't necessarily translate to him predicting less snow.

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  27. Name way north with its latest r un

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  28. The NAM is not reliable. Throw it away.

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  29. The GFS gives us a good amount of snow. Over 1 ft.

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  30. The NAM is a North outlier so I would throw that out right now. The GFS and Euro take it through Southern Pa which is a good track for us to be all snow.. The NWS is going with that solution. I think we are in for a snowy time.

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  31. What is timing on this? When does snow begin to fall and when does it end?

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  32. Starts Saturday afternoon. I think watches will have to go up for Sunday night into Monday

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  33. The Weather channel has a fixation on freaking Boston. That is all they talk about. Yike.

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  34. Okay the forecasts for the weekend are all over the place. Saturday light snow forecast from some Met folks, with possible dusting to 1-2". Sunday/Monday anything from a mix of moisture to significant snow fall and totals, to light snow Sunday night into Monday, and then Monday is much snowier. The potential for a Winter Storm was so there, and now nothing is being talked about. Even on this blog, if you look at the weather forecast posted by Channel 8, and what bloggers are saying -- why are your message so all over the map. Trying to figure out travel plans for Sunday and Monday. CCCC, please be the voice of reason and consistency. You are the one we count on to forecast and give us the correct information. Keep us posted this weekend. Even RC this morning seemed down, and talked about light snow on Saturday, and mentioned possible mixed precipitation for Sunday into Monday -- but nothing as to snow total or even projections. Come on, you can at least begin to give some potential ideas. CCCC -- what is your weather forecast.

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  35. When do you see Winter Storm Advisories, Watches, and Warnings going up for the Weekend?

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  36. This will not be a big deal so keep your travel plans as normal.

    ReplyDelete
  37. BUF NWS Forecast discussion for Saturday-Monday keeps saying an inch or 2 every 12 hours. Nuisance travel.

    THIS MAY WELL CHANGE AS A ROUND OF STEADIER AND
    HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADS OUR AREA WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE WAVE...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD...WITH THIS POTENTIAL DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED SOME...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH ACTUAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEADLINES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

    FWIW Wunderground "best forecast" is saying 1-3" Sat, 5-8 Sun, 1-3 Mon.

    Regardless of what we get, it's gonna be snowy for a few days, so enjoy!

    Andy

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  38. Still looks like this will start (sort of) Saturday with just some light snow. Maybe an inch or two - not much. The bulk of the moisture comes Sunday midday into Monday. The HUGE question mark remains the big temp gradient lying basically just south of us. Too close for comfort. As of RIGHT NOW (8:13am), looks like heavy(ist) snow north of thruway, lighter amounts south with some mixing on Sunday. RPM model spits out 18" near roc by Monday afternoon, with 8" in southern Livingston county. That is a very large spread, and due to the temp gradient. Huge bust potential if snowfall amounts were attached to this system right now. Unfortunately this may be one of those systems where you can't put really good numbers on it until you start to see it on radar. That is why the forecasts are all over the place (from different outlets) right now. Hope that answers some questions! Sorry can't be more specific right now.

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the great explanation!
      Andy

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  39. Latest GFS says no big deal way north.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. U do not know what you are talking about so stay off the blog.

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  40. Does anyone have an update from the latest 12z GFS besides what Anon 11:06 posted? Is that correct it is too far north?

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  41. 12Z NAM still shows a warmer system, 12Z GFS still showing cold with all snow for most.

    Stacey

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the lightning updates Stacey!

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    2. Stacey would you side with the GFS and EURO due to the strong high pressure just North of us. THe NAM seems to be the North outlier.

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    3. The GFS gives us a good amount of snow and mmoves it much slower than the NAM. The EURO is with the GFS.

      Delete
  42. No KW/JN tweets? I do know RC this morning was not to excited about much snow being even a possibility.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, I am surprised. RC never shows any enthusiasm in m opinion.

      Delete
  43. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

    "SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHWEST OR SATURDAY
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
    CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

    THE 00Z NAM WAS MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE -- ITS USUAL BIAS -- WHICH ALLOWED A 1000 HPA SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP AND AIM FOR PORTLAND OR. NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


    SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
    AMPLIFYING EASTERN TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
    CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

    THE 00Z NAM AMPLIFIES THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA SATURDAY AS IT IS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE, WHICH IS IMPLAUSIBLE. THIS LEADS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS 60+ METERS DEEPER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY -- ITS USUAL BIAS -- WHICH LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW SOLUTION FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THAT LIES COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN VAGUELY RESEMBLES THE NAM, NO OTHER GUIDANCE DOES. A UKMET/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE."

    In summary, toss the NAM. Its solution doesn't make sense from a meteorological standpoint. The SREF mean is beginning to fall in line with the global guidance on a colder outcome (sans GGEM), though it's still not completely there. The NWS is siding with the colder guidance due to the strong high. As for myself, I think the axis of heaviest totals from tonight through Monday will be just north of us, largely due to the steadiest overrunning snow being centered to the north. That's before the main show later Sunday into Monday, where we currently look to receive the majority of our snow. More fun times ahead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When you say heaviest total will be just north of us -- what area are you talking about?

      Delete
  44. CCCC based on GFS and Euro runs what time would you say the heavier stuff comes Sunday into Monday? When you say majority what are we possibly looking at for that time frame?

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    Replies
    1. -Probably mid to late afternoon for the main show.
      -Majority = 5-9 inches. Not so much "majority" as opposed to "biggest single chunk."

      Delete
  45. According to this map, showing new accumulation in the next 72hrs, we should be over 10" of fresh stuff by Monday: http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

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  46. I think more than 5-9 inches. GFS is spitting out over a ft.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's for the whole shebang starting very late tonight. I'm specifically referencing the strongest disturbance towards the end of the weekend.

      Delete
    2. Ok. So what do you think for the whole Shebang.

      Delete
  47. Dusting to a couple inches here and there...This thing had way too much hype at first, everyone was comparing it to last Monday...This one however is NBD, nothing to see here, wait for the next one....Sorry folks, NBD!

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    Replies
    1. Its going to be more than a couple inches surely, but I have to agree, NBD compared to how this system looked a few days ago. At least the pattern is getting active!

      Delete
    2. All I know when KW/JN is not tweeting by now then they are not excited about much snow from this one.

      Delete
    3. Going to be way too warm, cutting snow totals WAY down. I wouldn't get excited over this one. NBD is correct.

      Delete
  48. Please stop! It is not correct information you are giving out. Go troll else where please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is not correct Bob? This is a forum where everyone post's their opinion. All the models show different possibilities, so stop assuming only your opinion is the right one. FACT: Snowfall amounts are lowering. FACT: We are only getting a few inches by most models. FACT: N-B-D!!!!! Too warm!!

      Delete
  49. FACT you never cite anything so your opinion is useless. Which models are showing only a few inches? Which ones are showing too warm for western NY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The NAM is for starters, and all other models are trending too far north from where they were before, so what does that tell you.......TOOOO WARM!!!

      Oh yea, the GFY model also says your insight in terrible..

      Delete
    2. That is GFS and it says your life is terrible.

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    3. No no...GFY.....G-F-Y.....

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    4. Something I am sure you do often because I would assume you could not get the tide to take you out.

      Delete
  50. CCCC looking for your opinion as to totals for snow fall each day. Have to go into work on Saturday and Sunday -- so want to prepare for the worst, if needed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1-3" and 1-3"......you'll be fine both days. NBD

      Delete
    2. Did not ask you Anon 1:58 -- asked CCCC for his opinion.

      Delete
  51. Dear Anonymous(s): Post your names and stop acting so childish. This is a fun blog. There is no right or wrong opinion. I feel like I'm listening to my kids argue when they were young. So stop your arguing or I'll have to put you in time out :). Geez...

    Louise

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  52. Just because KW does not tweet does not mean this storm is nothing. Read the NWS commenst out of BUffalo. The GFS and EUro give us a snowstorm. Unless you can back up your comments with proof get off this blog. You need to throw out the NAM. The high in Cananda is too strong to,allow this system to move North. Even the NWS said this already. SUnday into MOnday is the time we will get most of our snow like CCC already stated countless times. This comment goes to the ANON who is arguing with Bob.

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  53. Winter Storm Watches just went up. Ha Ha Mr. Anon.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Thanks Snowdog, not the best at arguing wits with him, thanks for having my back. They did call me Big shot Bob back in the day!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No problem Bob. We have to ignore the Anons. They are just doing it to get a rise out of us.

      Delete
    2. That was an imposter Snowdog. It was Anon the troller.

      Delete
    3. Guys... just setup a blogger/google account if you want this imposter madness to end... http://blogger.com/

      Delete
  55. * Timing...from late Sunday morning through overnight Monday night.
    * Hazards...heavy snow.
    * Accumulations...snow potentially accumulating 7 inches or more.
    * Visibilities...as low as a quarter of a mile at times.
    * Impacts...storm will bring snow covered roads and poor visibilities that will make for difficult travel conditions.
    * ANON that kept posting NBD yada yada, is a loser.

    Seriously, they said that! Okay the first 5 bullets are what the NWS posted. The fact is the first 5 are predictions and the only bullet we know is true is the last one :)

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  56. No one seems to be mentioning the part of the warning that says FORECASTER CONFIDENCE... MEDIUM. WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING MORE OF A WINTRY MIX THAT WILL DIMINISH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.
    There is still a chance the warm air will move north so no, they have not ruled it out for us yet.

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    Replies
    1. Of course that's a chance but there is growing confidence that it may be something more than NBD for some, hence the watch.

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    2. Right but it's still medium confidence. It's not going to be NBD nor do I think it will be. I'm just saying we can't rule out the lower tallies either.

      Delete
  57. Yeah. They said Southern TYier, not Rochester and North. Look at the tweet by JN. COld air damming will keep the lake shore communites in the 20's while Souther tier could get into the mid to upper 30's. Syaracue just put up WSW and state 7 or more inches with a foot or more possible. I till say we are in that 12" range or more.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm seeing for the City of Rochester right now people forecasting anywhere from 20 to 30 degrees on Monday. Ten degrees is a big difference between sources. That just tells me that there is still wiggle room on how this is going to pan out the next couple of days.

      Delete
  58. 10 and 13 stating for Saturday: dusting to 1-2 inches or 1 to 3 inches. It looks like the timing of this Winter Storm will be the same as last Sundays -- Sunday afternoon to Monday night -- just a little bit longer duration and potentially higher amounts of snow. For those who love this type of weather event -- enjoy. I personally have had a little bit too much of the snow and cold for the time being. All we need know is a Blizzard.

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  59. The GFS has been consistent in giving us a lot of snow. Well over a ft. The NWS out all of the NY offices have disregarded the NAM and they are going with the GFS and Euro. I guess I do not understand why the Mets are not even talking about the potential for Big snows. Nothing from KW. Very surprised.

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  60. I watched GJ and JN at 545 and GJ did say he thinks 10" or more is a possibility. JN didn't put any amounts in it yet but said still need to watch the track of the boundary as did GJ. Will be interesting to see what CCCC thinks when he gets time tonight maybe .

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  61. In the Albany area all the local mets have at least 10 inches up to 15 inches possible. I think tonight's Oz runs and tomorrows 12z runs will help a lot with the forecasts.

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  62. Are they going to get more because they r closer to coast? TWC had us in snow/ heavy snow on their map from Sunday-Monday night. No amounts yet from them. I don't blame anyone for not putting specifics on it as the dynamics are so crazy. It seems to me that at leat in the local counties it should be cold enough for all snow. Maybe like pen yan and dansville etc would have issues with ptype?

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  63. From KW:

    There still remains a potential, significant long-duration snowfall for ROC area, so as they say in tv-land, stay tuned.

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  64. I guess not matter what we get at least. Little snow each day, and if everything lines up correctly Sunday night into Monday may be significant, there is also an outside chance it could dissapoint but that would only happen if someone is expecting a guaranteed foot or more.

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  65. Is that a typo on News 8's Friday high? 0...wow I can't wait for spring.

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    1. It winter in WNY. Bring on the polar vortex I say. We need a little bit more cold than what we have, which has been minor. Lets get into the 20 to 25 below zero, and then we can complain about how cold it is. Til then, 0 and -5 is no big deal.

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  66. We'll probably fall into the 8-12" range by Monday afternoon. But look at how little things have to change for us to get dramatically less, or dramatically more: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/NE_Snow.png

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  67. GFY model...lol. Good one.

    I think the odds of any significant mixing up our way are greatly diminished at this point. The NAM is still way north but is now even more of an outlier with the SREF mean trending south, along with every other piece of guidance. The GGEM is the furthest north out of any global model, but the WPC essentially tossed it in their model diagnostics this afternoon. Still wouldn't rule out a brief period of mix, but as of now it wouldn't appear to diminish the final snowfall amounts very much if it happened. Speaking of specific amounts, those are still low confidence IMO since we're dealing with a very tight baroclinic zone and a relatively narrow snow swath. At this point I'll stick with 8+ being very likely, and 12+ being a strong possibility.

    I won't be around tomorrow until late evening at the absolute earliest, if at all. I'm going on a long hike in the Bristol Hills region, and then once that's done I'm not sure what's going to transpire. I'll be here on Sunday for sure though.

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    1. "I'm not sure what's going to transpire"

      Drinking. Followed by sleeping.

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    2. Possibly. Or maybe everyone will be too beat up to drink and we'll simply pass out in the doorway. Or the third option: everyone goes home and takes to the interwebs. I prefer your idea though.

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  68. Scott on Facebook a few minutes ago when asked about the lowest amount he expects Sunday/Monday.

    "Scott Hetsko
    Low end Sunday 2-4", Monday 3-6" although I'm thinking Monday will be more than that..."

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  69. Oz GFS looks pretty good for Rochester.

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    Replies
    1. what's it show for us?

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  70. We may not end up in the sweet spot like last week, as the heaviest snow may be north & east, however, we should still be good for 8-12" come the end of Monday. And that's plenty by my standards :)

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  71. I agree. They were saying it might be heavier in central ny. It just started snowing in the last half hour here with this light but steady snow. Very small flakes. We will see if we get the 1-3 today they'd calling for. Where are Snowdog And bob? Will be looking for a morning update from them as they seem to be able to interpret the models better than I.

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  72. Think Ayy is right. I do not have a lot of confidence with this storm giving us heavy snow. Think the 12z runs today and Oz tonight will be helpful but this is more of a now forecast because it could change tomorrow from what you think. Truly believe we will be fortunate to get over 8 inches total from this counting today through Monday.

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  73. Not sure why u do not think we will see heavy snow. GfS gas been consistent in spitting out aft of snow still think that is possible. The Name is in line now temp wise but does not so it out nearly as much snow.

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  74. NAM which is usually over the top with amounts has us 6-8 inches so not a big deal in WNY. The higher amounts on all the models are clearly east/south of us.

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    1. Really cause more are saying higher amount north and east of us.

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  75. I would think south of us would be lesser amounts as the NWS states temps would be marginal for a while. The NAM had been way north so wouldn't that be why it's amounts are less?

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  76. Wroc forecast changed to mix Sunday and light snow Monday on their website, maybe they will chime in here re: any changes they are seeing?

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    1. It keeps changing; if you come back in an hour - it will say something different.

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    2. Those website forecasts are generated by computer for what it is seeing currenty and as above has stated will probably change. I don't go by that type of forecast. Too generic.

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  77. 12z GFS was good shows WNY in the 12-14 inch range by Tuesday.

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  78. This blog and out local weather experts are really quiet. Guess that means as Anon said before NBD.

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  79. CCCC posted that he would not be around allot as he will be hiking in Bristol Mountain. So don't expect much from him til he is back home.

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  80. Actually the local mets have been consistent in saying they don't know exactly where the boundary is going to set up, but it will be very close to our area. So right now they aren't sure the amounts, hence no posts about it. JN just said that today and I'm sure Scott feels the same way.

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    Replies
    1. Felt the earth shake in that JR, KW, and Scott might actually agree? Who would have thought.

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  81. When do you think they will know or be confident to make a forecast 5:00pm tomorrow?

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  82. I don't think it is a matter of if it will snow significantly or not I think it is a matter of do they put us in 6" or 12" range. Is that what you folks r referring to? At this point I think we are safely in the snow zone.

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  83. 12z Euro not impressive pretty weak and heavier stuff east.

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  84. Not one local or national forecast said we would get pounded in one day. The watch is more or less because it may be possible to have a period of heavy snow. Its been stated all along the this morning thru Monday night was what the total numbers are for.

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  85. We will end up going to a winter weather advisory by tonight.

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  86. I get this is a hard forecast but no professional can venture a guess at snow totals from tomorrow evening until Monday afternoon? That is only 24 hours away. What happen to this long duration event every one was talking about 2 days ago?

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  87. Latest data still points to a significant snow event Sunday afternoon into Monday. NWS will most likely upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning later this afternoon. I'll have an updated blog post out later this evening.

    -Matt

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  88. Thanks Matt warnings just went up for WNY.

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    Replies
    1. NWS:
      * Accumulations...2 to 3 inches Sunday...4 to 6 inches Sunday
      night...3 to 5 inches Monday...and 1 to 2 inches Monday
      night...leading to storm totals of 12 to 15 inches.

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  89. How likely are schools to close. I think it's a long enough duration event they will stay open. What do others think?

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  90. I teach in Ontario county. I think our district will probably stay open as long as the roads are kept up by Monday morning. If we et smoked Sunday night/early Monday and roads are terrible mYbe a delay? I'm not sure at this point I guess we will see. What do others think?

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  91. Schools will close if NWS numbers posted by Anon are accurate.

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  92. Not sure what the confusion has been. I have been saying all along the models have been consistent on giving us over a ft. 12-15" is what the NWS is saying. I doubt schools will be closed as this will be a long duration event.

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  93. If it starts snowing tomorrow afternoon even light to moderate and continues to Monday afternoon it will be difficult for many schools to open. Remember we just got 12 inches plus a week ago it is not like that has melted.

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  94. They do have to find places to push it. Districts have several schos each to plow lots for. Wonder if they call in their guys Sunday night or if they just go in super early Monday? I'll have to ask sometime. All I know is that if we had snow but not the closing type the night before, the whole campus is plowed by time I arrive at 7:25 am

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    Replies
    1. Its not really just the schools lots. Usually they are in contact with the towns the morning of to know how well the main and secondary roads will be for buses.

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  95. KW tweeted saying 12+ snows will be near the lake

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  96. 13 has 10-12 inchess

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  97. JN tweets snow 12-18 inches in Rochester right now can you wrap your mind around that the depth doubles by Monday. Me being smart thinks he will for cast 12-18 by Monday with higher totals closer to the lake.

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  98. Wasn't sure what you meant by depth doubling....?

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  99. He is saying right now we have12-18 inch snow depth and can you think about we will have another 12-18 inches on top of that by Monday afternoon. That is how I am interpreting his tweet.

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  100. I got ya. Even if we only got 6-10" will be hard for some places to find enough room to push the new stuff!

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  101. Farmington can you watch the 6 weather and see what JN says or Matt.

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  102. No problem I was planning on it. I dvr'd both 13 and 10 and wi watch after kids bathtime. I figure we will know what Matt thinks when he posts new blog later he said.

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  103. I know where CCCC is but not sure where Snowdog and Weatherguy are today. This blog is quiet.

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  104. New thread please. This is a lot of scrolling.

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  105. 13 says same amounts as NWS warning amounts. Verbally he said a good 10-12 inches by Monday night

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  106. JN says 7am Sunday-7pm Monday 10-15 for most north of route 20 looked like around there on his map. He had 15-20" for a lot of mid to north and eastern Wayne county and further east. And 20" around Sodus pt etc. hope this helps. Heavier snow starts around 4 or 5 pm and both channels say lake enhancement/effect is in play which is why warning goes until Tuesday. Snowdog will e happy he is in gananda

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  107. Thanks pretty good size storm for the 2nd weekend in a row.

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  108. I'm sure Matt will soon between the 6 and 11 news. I wish CCCC didn't have a life outside blog! lol. We need his perspective... Said he will be on tomorrow so that is good.

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    Replies
    1. It is sort of funny how he interprets the models and patterns for us relentlessly when nothing happens. Then gets social two good storms in a row.

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  109. Yeah it's like our fearless leader led us to battle and then took off right before we attacked. Still plenty of time for him to forecast tomorrow early on. He was probably getting burned out and it just sucks it happened when we get some decent storms. He seriously should be on the payroll with news 8. Not saying he takes the place of the Mets. But he keeps us focused and informed when the mets are doing what they do.

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