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Tuesday, February 24

OUR HISTORIC COLD FEBRUARY CONTINUES


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

The persistent parade of Arctic air pouring South from Central Canada will continue through the first week of March.  The trend next week does appear that perhaps the truest of the cold air may stay just to our North which would place us below average but not exceptionally cold like we've seen during February.

As of this writing, Rochester's average temperature for the month is a frozen 12.2° which is solidly in first place since records began in the early 1880's.  We will definitely finish in the top two all time given the forecast for the final days of the month.  On the snow side, 48.3" ranks number 3 all time in Rochester.

98 comments:

  1. I'm shamelessly reposting my comment from earlier
    Some updated cold Stats.
    This is the 2nd Coldest Month every in Rochester, and will likely end up THE coldest month (At least since 1926...which is as far back as I could get KROC data from wunderground).

    According to my spreadsheet, the top 10 coldest months every in Rochester are:
    1. 1934_02 12.61
    2. 2015_02 12.70 *
    3. 1979_02 14.11
    4. 1994_01 14.90
    5. 1945_01 15.26
    6. 1977_01 15.74
    7. 1981_01 16.10
    8. 1982_01 16.26
    9. 1978_02 16.71
    10.1989_12 16.90

    *2015_02 is only through 2/24.

    By my math, if the last 5 days of February average 12.55 degrees, this will be the coldest month at KROC from 1926 to Present.

    Taking this morning's lows and using the wunderground generated forecast, the next 5 days average 8.58 degrees. That would results in a final Feb Average Temperature of 11.89 degrees.

    This morning marks 9 days below 0 this month. Actually all 9 were in the last 12 days and 11 on the winter season. The record is 10 days in a month and the record for a season is 14. We had 10 last year.

    If you'd like to download the spreadsheet (sorry the pivot tables make it a massive 70 MB).
    https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z

    You can also click my screen name.

    Remember all the complaining about how warm and non snowy Dec was (minus one storm).

    Neither do I.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Think of the positives of having such a cold and snowy month, even from economic and comfort perspectives:

    -Fewer pests such as mosquitoes and ash borers for the warmer months
    -Plenty of meltwater for spring crops
    -Great Lakes water level recovery due to increased ice cover limiting evaporation
    -More pronounced lake shadowing to keep dangerous severe thunderstorms at bay in early summer
    -A new set of reasons to justify saying "it could be worse" in the future ;o

    I still say March 10th is when the tides turn for good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We have been known to have late March Winter Weather Storms, and sometime even leading into April it has snowed. Again, Spring will be late in arriving, and don't want to see much warm up in the coming weeks.

      Delete
  3. Dave in North HiltonFebruary 24, 2015 at 6:26 PM

    March 10th.. Warmer weather?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty much. By then we'll have a +NAO, +AO, -PNA, and most importantly a +EPO. Not to mention the CFS, Euro weekly and typhoon rule all point to an eastern ridge around that time...there's really no reason to expect a continuation of our cold and snowy pattern beyond that point.

      Delete
  4. CCCC...March 10? Just a gut feeling or do you see something happening?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks CCCC for some encouraging news for those of us who have had it up to here with winter.

      Delete
  5. I have to say, from someone who has had it with this winter, it has been a pretty impressive month of winter weather. I have lived here my whole life and can't remember a combination of snow and cold quite like it. Looking forward to a spring warmup.

    ReplyDelete
  6. CCCC, now NWS stating the system for Sunday looking weaker but there is a second system for Tuesday that looks stronger. Both still look all snow. Any comments, opinions at this distance I know it is speculation but why not right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll probably see the strength of both systems ebb and flow during the next several days. The whole thing depends upon how much energy hangs back in the southwest...if it's a lot then we'll have a weaker Sunday system and a stronger Tuesday system. The game of "eject the southwest energy" is always a quagmire for the models.

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  7. No storm Sunday too and that is good. Everything pointing to rainn

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If by "everything" you mean "nothing" then the second sentence is true. The first one is a level of assertiveness that won't fly at this range.

      Delete
  8. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 24, 2015 at 8:40 PM

    CCCC - I am wondering how dramatic the warm up can be, considering the cast snow cover on the land and ice cover on the water…even with a strong SW flow, as would be indicated by the teleconnections you mentioned, I would imagine it would be highly modified and not all that warm…40s?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 40s would feel like beach weather compared to the past several weeks. But yes, the snow and ice cover would definitely modify any airmass moving up from the south. Places like DC would enjoy highs in the 60s while we hang around in the 40s.

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  9. CPC hazards map:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

    ReplyDelete
  10. Scott mentions no storm possibility in his post?

    ReplyDelete
  11. We at least have 2 storm threats next week. The one Sunday/Monday will be a light to moderate event with snow- 3-5. Another one Tuesday/Wednesday but that track is questionable. The GFS and Euro take it to our West but other models take it South. The NWS states that the models will probably start taking that storm more South as well giving us snow. We will see. We do not want a strong storm to track to our West giving us a quick melt.

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  12. No matter how much the temperatures rise in the coming days; we will not begin to see any snow or ice melt for quite sometime. Spring will be late in arriving.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1 week of temps in the 40's and kiss the snow good bye, doesnt take too long for a solid stretch of mild air to melt snow....gonna make for a soupy nasty mess when it does start though.....a quick transition from cold to mild spring air can occur fairly drastically, just like the december mild air switching to our artic air seemingly overnight....


      Adam

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    2. Don't know where you have been, but have your driven around the Metro lately, and see the mounts of snow. When they have to close streets to remove snow so that emergency vehicles can get down; don't plan on the snow pack melting away with just one week of 40 degree weather. Besides we won't even begin to see such temps until April, if that. Spring will be late in arriving.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 25, 2015 at 5:19 PM

      Adam, I disagree. There will not be a sudden, drastic warm up like there was a sudden drop from warmth to cold. There is too much of a snowpack not just here but all around us…frozen lakes, rivers…cold bodies of water…all will influence and modify any warm flow we get. Plus, that flow won't be all that warm for the same reasons. The same effect does not occur when going from warmth to cold.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldFebruary 25, 2015 at 7:44 PM

      However…I do expect a more sunny than cloudy spring…

      Delete
  13. No big threats this week, thank god...Storm sunday will be a measly 1-3" if that, might even be RAIN....System Tuesday will be a miss for us, looks like NBD. Hope Spring arrives soon here! But at least were avoiding any big snows this week...NBD folks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You really do not know what u are talking about do you? Just gonna ignore you from here on in.

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    2. Original poster is correct Snowdog, weather underground shows 1-3" for Rochester on Sunday. Doesn't seem like any big deal.

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    3. Read the NWS service out of Buffalo not Weather Underground.

      BY SUNDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN AS SPLIT FLOW
      ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SENDS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES EAST ACROSS THE
      CONTINENT. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
      ROCKIES AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION...CAPTURING PACIFIC AND GULF
      OF MEXICO MOISTURE ON ITS WAY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
      MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND
      HELP MAINTAIN COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
      TIER OF THE NATION. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT WITH
      THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE MID LEVEL
      BAROCLINIC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
      AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THIS
      WILL BRING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
      THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE
      AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT EVEN THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT MODEST
      ACCUMULATIONS.

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    4. Not anywhere in there does it support your 3-5 total.

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    5. I dol not think they would talk about it if it was going to be 1-3. Give me a break. The model QPF output supports 3-5. Thank you.

      Delete
    6. Define modest accumulations?

      Delete
    7. Maybe this will be the Blizzard in the Flower City that the one blogger continues to post.

      Delete
  14. Mark it down! the Summer of 2015 will be one for the record books. Very hot and dry!

    ReplyDelete
  15. 12z GFS has nothing of major importance this weekend or next week. Good thing like CCCC said our winter will wrap up quickly this year with warms temperatures coming around March 10th and ushering in an early spring!. That is awesome for those who are sick of this historic winter February.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure where you are getting your data from, but Spring will be late in arriving. Many are noting it. Having temperature rise from -12+ and wind chills of -25+, does not means that Spring is around the corner from March 10. It simply means we will begin to see a rise in temperatures, but again with all of the snow and the pack, it will be a long time in melting.

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    2. I rather have the snow pack melt slowly. If we have a rapid thaw, then everyone will be contending with flooding, leaks, etc.

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    3. A few points:

      -March 10th isn't a particularly early start date for spring.
      -Pattern changes are not permanent nor prohibitive, so we could still have a rogue wintry period late in the month. Recall last year when we got a snowstorm near the end of March after winter had been dead for two weeks.
      -The long term rise in temps will actually begin this weekend, but it could also bring an uptick in storm activity.

      Delete
    4. I do not see this big pattern change you all see. I see the temps getting back to normal but also storms increasing whihc could mean more snow for us.

      Delete
  16. We'll compromise and call Sunday's event a 2-4 incher. Almost certainly won't be any rain with that one. Tuesday is still very much up in the air...that one could be snow to rain or perhaps snow to mix, or even all snow. The Pacific ridge will still be in play by that point so a colder outcome appears more likely to me. Regime change still looks on track to happen around the 10th, but it remains to be seen how much of a dent it will put in the snowpack. We have about 3-4 inches of liquid equivalent contained in a snowpack averaging 15-25 inches in depth...that density means that it will take its time melting away unless we get a prolonged period of deep and strong SW flow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you see the higher amounts to be along the 104 corridor and Lakeside communities?

      Delete
  17. More snow on the way:

    AS THE OLD IDIOM GOES...MARCH IS LOOKING TO COME IN LIKE A LION WITH
    A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
    INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
    SUNDAY WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
    VALLEY INTO NEW YORK. THIS MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
    DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
    SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES ACROSS THE
    NORTH COUNTY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LIKELY SNOW PROBABILITIES
    SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE AND EMBEDDED
    VIGOROUS VORT MAX CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
    LATENT HEATING OF THE SNOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
    MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ONLY SLIPPING A FEW
    DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR SNOW
    TOTALS...GFS/ECMWF MODEL QPF SHOW AROUND A HALF INCH OF LIQUID.
    DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
    INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER
    HEADLINES.

    A PACIFIC BASED SURFACE HIGH AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT
    ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
    TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS
    AND CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE ADVECTING
    NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
    LATER TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH OF A PRESSING ARCTIC HIGH NORTH OF
    THE GREAT LAKES IMPACTING EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE
    GETS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS HIGH AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE
    LIMITED TO NEAR THE NY/PA STATE LINE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW
    MUCH OF A ARCTIC HIGH AT ALL THEREFORE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SURGE
    NORTH ACROSS ALL OF NEW YORK INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS EVEN SHOWS A
    BIT OF A WARM NOSE WORKING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT COULD BRING
    A CHANCE A MIXED WINTERY PRECIP. EITHER WAY 12Z RUNS ARE COLDER THAN
    THE 00Z RUNS SO SNOW HAS BEEN CONSERVED AS THE FORECAST WEATHER
    TYPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKS EDGE CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL BY THE
    MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

    ReplyDelete
  18. So are you predicting a Winter Storm for both Sunday through Tuesday? Thoughts on snow fall total expected? When will Winter Storm Advisories, Watches, and Warnings go up?

    ReplyDelete
  19. I am not predicting anything. This is from the NWS discussion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why cut and paste this, and then add no comment as to what your opinion is. Anyone can cut and paste.

      Delete
    2. Because some people may not know where or how to find the discussion and it gives some information from professionals. We decided a while back that there was no harm in doing so. Not sure why it is such a big deal for you.

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  20. Was hoping to see the storm for next Tuesday Wednesday trending South but it is trending more north and west giving us a rainstorm. That is not good. Hope it changes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dust my ears this evening...What say you? rain?? RAIN?!? LOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT........and you sir were WRONG as usual....keep ripping other posts though bro!

      Delete
  21. No snow storm next week get the umbrella out. Winter is over yes!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Both "storm" potentials are really weak anyway. There is not a lot of moisture with these storms. What happen to the good old days where storms would dip down south and pick up great moisture then ride up the coast inland or apps? We get weenie storms where 6 to 8 inches is considered a good storm.

    ReplyDelete
  23. This the time of year when forecast temps seem to have higher bust potential. Get more sun than expected and it can get a bit warmer than you would think. The averages start climbing pretty quick too.. so even a normal air mass will seem like a heat wave in the short run. Will you remember this winter for the stretch we just went through or the agonizingly slow December start? Only takes a few weeks to make a winter memorable.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Congratulations on your brilliant GUESS Anon at 902. We'll see if your guess continues to pan out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Isn't that what prediction is? It's an educated guess.

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    2. The difference is...if you are the Anon poster who continues to do this repeatedly...you throw out a guess so far in advance that even professional meteorologists can't forecast with any accuracy. Even as of today, Sunday or Monday's weather is just starting to be a prediction - an educated guess as you say. Making a statement about Sunday's weather with certainty 5 days prior is...well, just a guess.

      Delete
  25. Model runs are getting worse and worse if you like snow. What looked promising towards a more active storm pattern at the beginning of the week has flown the coop. Again I predict we are done with any significant snow and cold this winter. Spring ahead baby.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can still be an active storm pattern without snow...

      Delete
  26. Come on CCCC you know it is over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know what I don't know, and what I don't know is how Tuesday will ultimately pan out. No one can possibly know that.

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    2. What are you seeing for Sunday night into Monday morning. Local weather folks are all over the map, and continue to talk about the cold. CCCC what are you thinking/seeing for that time frame.

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    3. Just a modest snowfall of 2-4 inches or so.

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    4. Do you see the higher amount along the 104 or north of 104?

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    5. Not cold enough for lake enhancement, so no.

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  27. Remember folks, model outputs never change with 5 whole days of lead time and large ensemble spread. Why just last week they were indicating a mix to rain scenario for this past Saturday, and that's exactly what happened...hundreds of miles to our south. And I'm still trying to find the fork that I was told to stick into the GHD storm. You know, the storm that our rock steady models sent down to DC with a few days to go until the zero hour. Basically, Spongebrag Gloatypants at 9:02 might want to hold his tongue for awhile longer :P

    We'll be heading back to a colder (but not frigid) regime immediately after next week's storm regardless of what p-type we get, so the rumors of winter's demise are greatly exaggerated. The model guidance did shift warmer for Tuesday, but there's no sense in committing to such drastic changes with so much time to go.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Have been saying for while that Spring will be late in arriving, and the cold we have been experiencing will be with us for a while longer. So though it might be in the 20's and 30's for a day or two -- we will easily drop back down into the single digits and teens before you know it. Again, Spring will be LATE in arriving to WNY. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe some lows in the teens and single digits, but almost certainly not highs like we've been seeing. And we're still on track to have a milder turn by approximately the 10th.

      Delete
  29. We all know that the pattern has been that the models take systems too far north and West initailly and then brings them back down South again 2-3 days out. My guess is that the Tuesday Wednesday system will still track further South than the models are showing. As of right now. it looks like rain, but that could change.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Matt just said a few inches Sunday night into Monday and rain next is the likely outcome of that storm.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Tuesday looks like a mix right now IMO. The only way we get pure rain from the onset is if the cold antecedent airmass scoots on out before any precipitation arrives. That type of scenario tends to be modeled too aggressively, aside from the fact that the existing snowpack will likely have more than a minor impact on surface temps. Then there's the backside which will provide cold enough temps for snow regardless of track. I'm not entirely sold on the more recent warmer solutions anyway, we're still going to have the -EPO ridge in place which would normally argue against the warmer side of the guidance envelope. I'm actually not entirely sold on any solution until we get Sunday's system out of the way which, shocker of the century, is STILL causing some fits for the models.

    ReplyDelete
  32. The NWS is now calling for 3-5" for the Sunday system which is what I said several days ago. The system for Tuesday Wednesday is trending South but still gives us a mix to rain. This will be a very brief warm-up- 1 day warm up and then back to cold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What are the local weather folks saying about snow accumulations for Sunday into Monday. Will we see any Winter Weather Advisories or Watches for the area, especially the City. Also higher amount -- where?

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    2. I believe winter weather advisories will be issued sometime tomorrow.

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  33. As many have been saying -- don't expect warm temps for quite some time. Spring will be late in arriving. Back to the freeze.

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  34. These systems are NBD for both weekend and Wednesday. Wish we could just get to spring and warmer temperatures. Who wants an annoying 2-3 inches of snow and then rain and back to cold. There are NO BIG storms even in site the next 7-10 days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just like I have been saying all along....NBD folks! Dusting to an inch or two here and there is absolutely annoying. Just bring on the warmer temps and spring! But nothing to worry about this weekend and next week as far as significant snow....NBD on this one folks!

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    2. Your ridiculous with NBD on this folks everyday. LOL

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    3. Dustin to an inch or two is not what is being said -- CCCC is talking about 3-5" and others are saying 4-6+ inches expected. Which is it?

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    4. Snowdog are you implying something different than NBD?

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    5. In you face NBD'er, looking more like a solid 6-10".

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    6. 6-10???? you re out of your mind.....sunday is a 3-5 system, which on the low side is annoying but 5" is fairly substantial.....and as far as the tuesday wednesday system, its still to early to throw any options out the window yet...

      Adam

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    7. LOL anon saying NBD and rain, bring on spring, blah blah! First you said it was going to be a rain event.... WRONG! Then you said NBD...Wrong!... While not a huge deal, 3"-5" is a bit more than NBD. As for your wishes of spring, the fact is that spring rarely arrives in this region by early or even mid-March and sometimes not even till mid April or later.

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    8. and to continue to my 9:06 post, the mid week storm is too far out to say rain. My guess is that given the snow pack and propensity for a cold grip that temps are going to be lower than currently modeled. The Sunday night system was thought to be on the edge of rain, but temps continue trending colder than previously modeled.

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    9. Where did the 6-10 inches come from. Just checked other sites 13 and 10; not one is predicting such snow totals. Each say some snow. Is 6-10 inches "some snow" to them? Anon 8:52 -- where are you getting your information from? Have travel plans for Sunday -- so want to be able to plan if we are expecting such a Winter Storm?

      Delete
    10. 6-10" of NBD's BS that is. Sorry guys, just trying to get a rise out of whoever NBDealer is, been listening to his NBD whine for way too long now!

      Delete
    11. Again, still looking for clarification on the 6-10" of snow which Anon 8:52 is saying we can expect? CCCC, HP, Snowdog can you weigh in?

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  35. Some are now saying 6-10+ inches of snow on this blog. Is that what we can anticipated. If so, have a real issue with the local weather folks as NOT ONE of them has begun to mention this as a possible Winter Weather/Storm to keep an eye on - not even KW, RC, or JN. If this is true, talk about irresponsible weather forecasting and reporting. For those of us who have had to live through the week of snow of having closed streets due to the amount of snow which needed to be removed -- another 10 inches will truly impact the City. Folks are currently struggling with getting snow of roof tops, think about the stress that roofs are already experiencing. So if you are putting this # out and have nothing to base it on. TALK ABOUT BEING IRRESPONSIBLE and look at yourself in the mirror. For those who know what you are talking about, such as CCCC, HP, Snowdog, etc. -- what are you folks seeing for the latter part of the weekend. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chill, they were blowing smoke talking about that much. We'll get a little snow Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. A couple inches.

      Delete
  36. NOT 6-10", sorry for the comment, didn't mean to create a panic, poor judgement on my part, just trying to spar a little with the annoying NBD'er.

    852 anon

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  37. And your penance 852 anon is to publicly state that you are wishing for no more snow! Everyone on this blog knows how wishing for more snow has completely screwed over people this February. ;)

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  38. Agreed that would be a good punishment. Blog seems really active today. If people are that quick to fall into a panic over 6-10 then better consider the possibility of 4" and 4" from the two events which adds up to the same number by mid week anyways. Not saying that's my prediction but the possibility could be there. And for the record I've come down strongly on the side of the snow wishes here on the past but I'm starting to plan out some spring projects so if it makes anyone feel better...I promise not to wish for anymore snow either...as long as we get a good 24" drop for Christmas next year!

    SW

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  39. The Sunday/Monday system will give us 3-5. The Tuesday/Wendesday system is still up in the air. The warm-up will be 1 day.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Tuesday/Wednesday not up in the air. If you look at the 12z GFS there is nothing there for us. It again is going to be NBD for either one. Why are snow angry people still hoping for something that is clearly not there on the models.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your looking at 1 model. You cannot do that. There are many other models to review. Who says the GFS is correct????? The pattern this winter is to bring the system South as the event gets closer. I see no difference here. It is still 5 days out.

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    2. Not always though, the GHD storm had a short term north trend that never quit.

      Delete
  41. Not up in the air huh? The ensemble spread says otherwise. The utter inability of our multimillion dollar models to resolve the sunrise this winter says even more. The only wishcasting I see coming from this blog is the person going "See? NBD guys like I said right? Right? right? guys?" Whether you like it or not an advisory criteria wet snowfall is going to cause problems, mostly in the form of slick road conditions. And if Tuesday resolves to a warm solution then we've got bigger problems than slick roadways. Think about the potential consequences of heavy rain and wind on top of an ample snowpack, followed by a freezeup...that scenario screams localized flooding followed by even slicker roadways, with the end result being even more water locked up in the snowpack. There is nothing "NBD" about either of our imminent storm systems. I still like a colder outcome for Tuesday given the lingering EPO ridge and deep snowcover, though probably (read: PROBABLY) not to the tune of an all snow event.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Face it, it will be NBD. The chances for doom and gloom in this area is very low. The chances for NBD is very high though.

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    Replies
    1. OMG. YOU ARE TOTALLY RIDICULOUS!!!!

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  43. Winter Weather Watch already up for Wyoming County Saturday night through Monday. Expecting 7 or more inches of snow.

    ReplyDelete

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