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Saturday, February 21

NO REST FOR THE WEARY

Remember back to December and January when many of us were wishing for more snow and cold? Be careful what you wish for I guess!

After shattering more record lows over the past couple days, February 2015 now ties with 1934 as the coldest on record in Rochester and we've also seen plenty of snow. The snowfall total so far for the month is 41.1" and that puts us nearly 25" above average. Places closer to the lakeshore have seen significantly more than this!



Mother Nature isn't done with us yet either. A powerful Arctic cold front will bring another blast of brutally cold air to kick off the new work week. Highs by Monday will struggle to climb into the single digits and gusty winds will create dangerously low wind chill values of -20 to -35F!



Contrary to what some folks might have heard, Lake Ontario still has plenty of open water and this will factor into lake effect Sunday night into Monday morning. Some squalls could be locally heavy with several inches of accumulation possible near the lakeshore.

Looking further ahead, it appears that another frigid airmass is taking aim on western New York by the middle part of next week and temperatures will once again plunge below zero in many areas during the overnight hours.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones


89 comments:

  1. Matt. When you say close to the lake shore do you mean North of the Thruway? If not why is the lake effect not making it too far on shore. The winds will be pretty strong so why does it not carry it further inland?

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  2. Along and north of the Thruway could see a few inches but the more significant accumulations (locally 6"+) will be mainly north of Rt. 104.

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  3. Matt do you expect WC warnings to be issued?

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  4. Big differences about wind chill readings Monday morning between 10 and13. 13 has them lower and I believe 10

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  5. What a crazy stretch of winter. I have received 116 hour overtime in 3 weeks. Three years ago I didn't break 100 hrs for the whole winter. I am hoping the phone doesn't ring at 3am tomorrow morning, I would love the morning off before the wind gets us out plowing again. Come Monday I say bring on the snow, I will be ready for another few weeks of madness.

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    Replies
    1. WOW and winter is far from over. Hope you have a family which is understanding with the amount of time you have needed to be away from them. Don't know what we would do without our snow plow operators and all they do!!! Thank you!!!!

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  6. According to this current condition graph of ice coverage issued by the NWS shows that there is a lot of ice on Lake Ontario. Even 1 day earlier this week of over 80% ice coverage.

    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/ice/gif/o2014_2015_ice.gif

    Also if you look at this forecast issued by the same people you will see they are thinking ice coverage will expand a lot over the next few days to close to 90% covered.

    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/fcast/oicecon+120.gif

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    Replies
    1. I already made a post a few days ago about how those analyses are painfully inaccurate. There was cloud cover all day yesterday which completely enshrouded the lake, but here's the satellite imagery from the day before:

      http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/buf_img/a1.15051.1836.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg

      Almost completely open save for the far eastern end and the immediate south shore, clearly nowhere remotely close to 80% ice covered.

      Delete
  7. How are we still under a wind chill watch?

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    Replies
    1. Blows your mind?

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  8. Spreadsheet thought either advisory or warning would have been issued by now? They talking about tonight right?

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    Replies
    1. I expected an advisory by now, as well. 24 hours out. I was just making a joke. Blown Away...by a wund warning.

      This is why I have a day job.

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    2. You're still a real punny guy SG.

      I have a day job too ._.

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  9. Yes tonight another arctic front comes through and drops temps below zero after midnight and this time around winds are supposed to be strong. WC values 20-35 below I guess possible by morning

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  10. Interest how the only up data was anextensionof the watch from noon Monday to now Tuesday which I think says winds will be prevalent longer.

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  11. Local weather folks are focusing on the wind chill as they did last week. JN talked about the possible record for # of days below zero in a row.

    But today with the sun out and in the 20's this is nice weather to get outside and enjoy the winter snow.

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  12. Expect more streets in the metro to be closed for snow removal. It has been brutal for those who park on the street. Feel for them having to walk from the downtown parking garages to where they live in the City; especially with the wind chill.

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  13. Can someone explain why still a WC watch? Thought they were talking tonight and tomorrow morning?

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    Replies
    1. Because it is dangerous cold out; that is why.

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  14. They will probably upgrade to a warning once their confidence is higher in the wind speed etc

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  15. Anyone notice that like cccc referenced earlier, now WU is also starting to talk about some interesting possibilities for next weekend and beyond?

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    1. Forget what CCCC and WU are saying because Rochester's most Accurate has us at 40 degrees next Sunday but come to think of it that would be an interesting possibility.

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    2. Keep in mind that the forecast which appears for the week is computer generated, and consistently changes throughout the day and week. So what you see today for 40 degree on Sunday (2/28), might not be what appears this afternoon or as the week goes on. Just keep that in mind.

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  16. Is WU weather underground? I used to go on that site back in college but haven't in years. Do try have a forum or a discussion board?

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  17. Yes, sorry for the abbreviation. Go to current weather conditions for Rochester area and there's a link "scientific forcaster discussion". Not a discussion board just a lengthy write up extending out 7 days or so. I'm half wondering if CCCC moonlights there. It's good for lay people like me because although technical info is offered you don't have to understand all of it to get the bottom line. Not sure how accurate they are since I've only been reading it for a few days, but it's interesting to compare them to wroc and the locals.

    SW

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    Replies
    1. wunderground is one of my regular reads. The scientific discussion is the nws discussion.

      You can get that discussion (actually the last 50 discussions) directly here:


      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      Delete
  18. I was thinking the discussion was the same thing as the NWS... I used read it there before I knew I could get it at the NWS site.

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  19. So stupid how some counties have a WC advisory while right next to then is a warning. If temps get below zero with 10-20 mph winds and gusts to 30 can not see how that is not at least minus 20 to 30.

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  20. Good info, thanks.

    SW

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  21. In thinking the counties bordering lake wi not be quite as cold so that is why it is advisory where Ontario, Livingston etc are further south and temps will drop lower yielding lower windchill

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  22. So if you are close to Ontario but in Monroe county will you be a warning or advisory?

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  23. When does this cold front come through and will there be any school closings?

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  24. Front comes through later tonight. Temps drop all night and by morning we r near zero. As of now if you are in monroe county it is an advisory I don't think it will go warning unless temps go way lower. I doubt any schools will close maybe some delays In the usual towns. My district never delays and I doubt we will close even in wc is -25 or worse

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  25. Not sure how districts would open if minus 25 or lower.

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    Replies
    1. Kids were off from school all last week. They will survive, and besides schools have had time to plan for the cold and wind chill. Kids will be just fine -- its called bundling up before you send them out.

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  26. I think minus 25 is the cutoff for closings. I wouldn't think they would be open if it was that cold, maybe delay a couple hours at least.

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  27. I haven't seen the news yet. R they talking it up, record cold etc? Probably have some poor reporter live somewhere outside

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    Replies
    1. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

      "MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES"

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    2. Scott just posted minus 10 to minus 20 wind chills. Not a big deal compared to what we had last week .Schools will be open.

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  28. Scott has 40 next Sunday hip hip hooray!

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    Replies
    1. We are still in the mist of winter -- don't want on anything above 20 degrees for along time. Spring will be very late in arriving according what I am reading. Perhaps late April into May before it starts to warm up. So if you are holding your breath for warmth -- don't.

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  29. Well he had 38 last week for today and that did not happen. I doubt we will hit 40 degrees.

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  30. We aren't tickling 40 at any point within the next 10 days unless a storm tracks north or west of us.

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  31. Oh my questioning rochester most accurate not smart. Why does13 keep saying tomorrow will be the coldest day of the month?

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  32. Probably because they think it's going to be the coldest day of the month. Just a wild guess. In all seriousness, most forecasts for tomorrow keep us below the lowest high we've had so far, which is 6 degrees. And I wasn't questioning anyone, Scott probably has 40 in the forecast for the very reason I brought up: because he sees a storm tracking to our north or west. And that idea isn't set in stone no matter who presents it.

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  33. What are people seeing as to potential Winter Weather/Storm for the weekend. Are you seeing Sunday/Monday event again? Just want to be able to plan for the weekend.

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  34. No storm next weekend will be rain.

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    Replies
    1. U know that how????

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    2. Will ask again, what are people seeking for potential Winter Weather/Storm for the upcoming weekend -- especially Sunday into Monday.

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    3. According to the BUF AFD... Snow, to mix to maybe a period of rain sunday night into monday, then back to snow. Lots of uncertainty.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=buf&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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  35. When RMA has 40for Sunday I am going with rain please stop worrying about a big snow storm. We are not going to get another one and who wants one anyway. I think February alone has filled us all up with winter.

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    1. You'd be surprised. There are a few on this blog that have made it very clear that they are still rooting for a ton more snow even knowing all of the problems the weather is causing people around Rochester.

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    2. I ask again. How do you know this? Do you have a crystal ball to see into the future to say we are not going to get another snowstorm.

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  36. I believe it will be a quiet end to February next week and month of March. Time will tell but I have had enough and I love winter.

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    1. From the NWS out of Buffalo. No more snow huh???

      BY SUNDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS THE SPLIT FLOW ALONG
      THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SENDS A PAIR OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS
      EAST ACROSS THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE SOME
      PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
      THE NATION...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE
      US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. THIS IS A
      SIMILAR SYSTEM TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN REPEATEDLY OVER THE PAST MONTH
      OR SO...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THE
      MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
      TIMING AND TRACK...WITH THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN
      SUPPORTING A CHANGE TO AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
      AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAIN FOR A TIME. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COLDER AND
      FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT GIVEN
      THE DOMINANCE OF COLD AIR IN THE NORTH. GIVEN THE INHERENT
      UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AT
      THIS POINT...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH.

      Delete
    2. Instead of just copying and posting these messages from the NWS; please give you opinion as to what you think this means. What do the charts and maps tell you. Anyone can do a cut and paste -- expect more from those on this blog than that.

      Delete
    3. No one here or anywhere else has to have their own original thoughts all of the time. Even Don Paul does some copy-pasting of WPC discussions over on his blog, and he's a top tier meteorologist. Expecting a bunch of bloggers to always have completely original thoughts sets an impossibly high standard.

      Delete
  37. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ONE TO WATCH!!!

    This could be the big one!

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    Replies
    1. Or it could be completely ordinary. Or a rainer. Or a whiff. Right now it's just a nebula floating around in model land.

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    2. Do you think that this system will be the big one, meaning Blizzard like conditions with feet of snow?

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    3. Anon 12:30 -- what do you mean by "this could be the big one"; are you talking several feet of snow? Please explain what you mean by your post -- be specific if you are reading charts/maps that no one else has begun to comment on. Thanks.

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    4. I would never play the "big one" angle unless we had strong signs of such a potential. Those signs currently don't exist in any form and very likely won't at any point. No other thoughts beyond a simple "keep an eye on it."

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  38. Well I mean, Scott said it and he's practically God, so obviously we have to take his exact word on the forecast for a week out. He'll be the first to tell you that a 7 day forecast never changes and that "most accurate" means 100% accurate 100% of the time. Real talk though, I'll side with the "we don't know for sure yet" camp and call it a system of potential interest. We're definitely not done with snow yet even if the weekend doesn't deliver, since we have more lake snow and a weak system later Tuesday to get through first.

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  39. I predict that the models will continue to keep us on the edge of our seats regarding next Sunday/Monday. They currently show us getting snow -> rain -> snow Monday morning, however, there will be many runs between now and then. I'm sure we'll see some runs go way north giving us all rain, and then we'll see some runs go south, giving us all snow. We just don't know yet, and with the way the models have been throwing everything around so much this year, don't count on a high confidence solution until Friday or Saturday.

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  40. Who is going to prepare JN if we do get 40 degree weather and sun on Sunday. He won't know what to do, and might sink into a depression as we know how he LOVES the winter storms, cold, snow, and more snow.

    Except more street closings in the City of Rochester in the coming days. Know that people are not happy about it, but if you have an emergency on your street, with the way some are -- Fire and EMT would not be able to even drive down the street. Those who have been reopened are much better and more passable than before. Just hard to walk home at night from one of the downtown garages when it is this cold, but it is Western New York -- suck it up and deal with it.

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  41. I think Snowdog is JN

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  42. For Sunday the local weather folks are all over the map for temps from 24 to 30 to 40. That is a wide range of temps.

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  43. Kw not that excited about Sunday potential.

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  44. I think someone has an unhealthy obsession with JN. Just sayin. It is Monday so very early. KW will go back and forth for days with excitement then non excitement. Must be why models show today was not very exiting but could change next round. NWS said this could bring a large slug of moisture with it because of where or how it is forming. No expert though.

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  45. And Sunday just looked at all the modeL ensembles and small percentage we get a storm Sunday.

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    Replies
    1. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F156.html

      Define "small percentage."

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  46. This week looks quite boring and the weekend system, right now, looks pretty weak. Similar to the one we had a few days ago.

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    Replies
    1. Depends on where you live as to whether or not this past weekend's system was weak. Some got over 6+ inches of snow.

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  47. WOW 3rd snowiest February since 1870 -- with almost 50" of snow. For those who love the snow and Winter Storms -- February gave you your Valentine's Day present and then some. Have to say that the mounts of snow in my small apt parking lot at higher than the vehicles (including SUV's). If you get any more significant snow -- not sure where the snow plow operator will put it.

    Expect more City Streets to be identified to be closed for snow removal. It is amazing as to the amount of snow they are having to remove; but they have to in order for some of the streets to be passable for vehicles, let alone emergency vehicles.

    When do you think the cold will begin to ease up. Heard we could see a very late Spring?

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  48. Looking more and more like that weekend deal will be minor at best as Snowdog said.

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  49. Sun is out, wind chill advisory has ended -- it is a good day to be outside enjoying our Winter Weather and the snow. Would like more days like today; that is Winter.

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  50. It is tuesday, pretty sure we have another 2 or 3 days till we know anything about sunday/sundaynight....Minor would be nice though.

    Adam

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  51. Some updated cold Stats.
    This is the 2nd Coldest Month every in Rochester, and will likely end up THE coldest month (At least since 1926...which is as far back as I could get KROC data from wunderground).

    According to my spreadsheet, the top 10 coldest months every in Rochester are:
    1. 1934_02 12.61
    2. 2015_02 12.70 *
    3. 1979_02 14.11
    4. 1994_01 14.90
    5. 1945_01 15.26
    6. 1977_01 15.74
    7. 1981_01 16.10
    8. 1982_01 16.26
    9. 1978_02 16.71
    10.1989_12 16.90

    *2015_02 is only through 2/24.

    By my math, if the last 5 days of February average 12.55 degrees, this will be the coldest month at KROC from 1926 to Present.

    Taking this morning's lows and using the wunderground generated forecast, the next 5 days average 8.58 degrees. That would results in a final Feb Average Temperature of 11.89 degrees.

    This morning marks 9 days below 0 this month. Actually all 9 were in the last 12 days and 11 on the winter season. The record is 10 days in a month and the record for a season is 14. We had 10 last year.

    If you'd like to download the spreadsheet (sorry the pivot tables make it a massive 70 MB).
    https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z

    You can also click my screen name.

    Remember all the complaining about how warm and non snowy Dec was (minus one storm).

    Neither do I.

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    Replies
    1. Should say through 2/23.

      Delete
  52. This will be remembered as a cold winter, but not necessarily snowy.Yes February has been snowy, but we are still only at 80" for the year (officially). That is still 20" shy of the norm. 3 years in a row in the late 50's we had over 140". We have had much better snowier years than this one so far.

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    Replies
    1. We have had 86" so far. 14" shy of the norm. We will see what the rest of the winter brings.

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    2. Remember if you are getting your reading as to snow levels -- be wary of what is posted by the Airport. They have been significantly lower the past couple of years.

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  53. Weekend Storm is NBD, it is now going to be all RAIN! Sorry folks, NBD on this one!

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    Replies
    1. Wrong again!!! Have you read the NWS. They are going with a cold solution. Dont throw things out before you know what is going on.

      THE LATEST
      00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ARE
      NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
      DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
      PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

      THE SAME BASIC PATTERN REMAINS IN
      PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE
      DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
      MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL
      GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
      FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR
      REGION. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP STAYING ALL
      SNOW AGAIN...AND THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DOMINANCE
      OF COLD AIR RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CONUS.

      Delete
    2. It's still 5 days away. That WILL change just like it has all winter.

      Delete
    3. Ok. You are the Meteorologist. You must be correct.

      Delete
    4. So you are saying YOU are correct? It's 5 days out. Nothing this winter has been a solid setup 5 days out. FYI, I'm not the original poster so redirect your snarky attitude.

      Delete
  54. 12z Euro is not good at this moment we are going to be okay because spring is coming.

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  55. If you look at the latest forecast from the NWS and Wundergound's "Best Forecast" the trend has been for lower temps rather than higher this weekend and into Monday .

    Well mother nature obliterated my 75"-85" winter prediction, but I don't mind missing as long as she goes high!

    Andy

    ReplyDelete

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