Get your daily dose of weather news

with Scott Hetsko, Chief Meteorologist

RSS FEED SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

Our weather blog brings you expert perspective on the latest weather news. Our weather experts share the inside scoop with blog entries from the studio and from the field. Check out the latest weather news and storm coverage in our most recent blog entries.

Friday, February 20

Ok, NOW Uncle?!

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

No, seriously. But not so fast.

Since January, our winter has been cold. January averaged about  5° below "normal" but lacked snowfall. February has really picked up the winter slack. Actually, really since Valentines Day. Nearly all of our sub-zero temperatures in February happened after Valentine's day (1 happened on the 13th). We are running nearly 12° below average in the temperature department for the month, and we have also made up our lack of snow from January - with nearly 40" this month, and over 80" on the season. Models continue to show arctic blast after arctic blast (although not quite as severe) heading into next week; one on Sunday/Monday, and another late-week.


Now this weekend "storm" - looks like a nuisance snowfall, but at least it's looking like a snowfall now, instead of a nuisance slop. Cold enough for all flakes with several inches of snow, followed by that next arctic blast. Another little guy coming on Wednesday with some snow, followed by another blast of colder air. I thought last winter was pretty harsh, and one to remember. Personally, I think this one puts last year to shame, in terms of the cold, at least, and persistently (although not blockbuster) snowy weather.

70 comments:

  1. Thanks Stacey. When do you see a break in this cold weather. The first week in March?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Accuweather's long term forecast isn't getting us into the 30s until March 2nd. Honestly, if it's just another week of this bitter cold I can deal. I'll be happy just to be around our average high right now. Seeing the sun at the end of the tunnel?

      Delete
  2. Even though big storms are exciting, think about it if we got crushed in the coming weeks with some huge snow maker, like 2 feet of heavy snow. We would have some serious travel problems in the cities and some serious structural problems since nothing has melted lately.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So true -- thanks for being a voice of reason.

      Delete
  3. Last winter had a MUCH earlier start to the cold. We won't be able to hold a candle (blow torch?) to last winter in total number of cold days. However, this month has been impressively cold. I took the KROC temperature data from 1926 through yesterday (2/19/15), calculated some cold statistics for (low below 5, low below 0, high below 10, high below 20, high below 32). Obviously from the forecast, there is plenty of time left but here are some interesting notes:

    This winter we had 21 sub 5 lows going into today (#5 all time). Obviously there are more to come. Last year we had 23 (#3) and the record is 27 (1962/63).
    This winter we had 7 sub 0 lows going into today (#7 all time). Last year we had 10 (#4) and the record is 14 (1942/43).

    If we look at the stretch from Feb 1 to Feb 19 and compare years.
    This year over that stretch:
    High: 21.47 (#4). 2014 was 27.16 (#15). Record was 13.16 (1979). (#2) was 19.58 in (1958).
    Low: 5.95 (#3). 2014 was 11.53 (#13). Record was -1.11 (1979). (#2) was 3.95 in (1934).
    Mean: 14.00 (#3). 2014 was 19.63 (#13). Record was 6.16 (1979). (#2) was 13.21 (1934).

    So if it feels historically cold this month. It has been. But at least it's not 1979!

    If you'd like to see some 2 screen shots of the data or want the spreadsheet itself, I posted them here:

    https://app.box.com/s/hmepxiorcycqils310ngz8ifacv4mln8

    You can also click on my screen name to get to the link. If you've never used a pivot table before it's pretty easy and a ton of fun. Just click on one of the tables and drag your desired fields to the row, column, or filter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. There is hope for those who tire of winter:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/signs-of-a-march-pattern-change/42634748

    ReplyDelete
  5. I dont. Keep it coming. We still need a BIG storm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really you want to truly add to the snow pack we currently have? Obviously you don't life in the Metro where we are struggling with the mounts of snow and parking. If you want a big storm with more snow -- are you willing to assist people who are having roof problems already, and I am surprised there are not more pipes bursting or roofs beginning to cave, but again it is still early. All some of us is a little bit of a break from the ongoing snow fall and cold. Not asking for much -- just a break.

      Delete
  6. There is a point where we needed to stop and we have clearly passed it.

    BUT LET'S KEEP GOING AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What frozen Kool-Aid are you drinking in that you want more Winter Weather and Lake Snow.

      Delete
    2. People like her don't deal with it when it comes down like crazy and isn't out helping her neighbors. Most of us do have to deal with the snow and see the hazards of what is currently out there.

      Delete
    3. She's a he and you're on the wrong blog if you don't want to hear people cheering for more snow.
      I have an 800 ft driveway to maintain and have lost count of the times I've been out plowing this month...three hours one night in single digit temps on the tractor knocking back snow piles to fit more snow...helping out a friend with their drive several times...last night after driving the garbage down to the curb in a pretty good squall approaching frostbite on several digits while plugging in the block heater and battery charger on the plow truck I finally made it back inside and said to my wife:
      Must be something wrong with me if I'm not sick of it yet but here I am still measuring each snowfall with a yardstick cheering for more snow!

      So don't assume all of us snow lovers are Lazy armchair forecasters who don't deal with the results. Some of us just flat out love the winter weather and embrace the challenges it brings.

      SW

      Delete
    4. Never knew Carol to be a guy's name but the world is changing. Want a pat on the back SW? I like the snow but as myself and others have stated before, hoping for more snow now is hoping for more hazards and problems for people. It's well beyond just a pretty snowfall. Now by hoping for more snow you are hoping for roofs to have issues, people to be stuck in their cars, water mains to burst, etc. I know Carol will get upset and say "hope harder" or something condescending like she usually does but the issue isn't with people liking snow. Most of us on here like or love the snow. The issue is the how clueless people are about how bad more snow will be for people. But I guess it's no different than people who root for hurricanes to have a hurricane party while others lose their homes.

      Delete
    5. I fully understand how hard it will be on people to have more snow, sucks for them if we do get more. But acting as if it's some cardinal sin to root for more is utterly pointless. Who cares if those people are clueless, what impact does it have on your life? Is their wishing going to get you killed? Is it going to make you have to shovel more? Wishing has literally zero consequences for anyone anywhere. It's as if you hate what's going on so now you're trying to punish those who love it by making them feel guilty for their preferences. Or were you just looking for an excuse to attack me again? I have to deal with the snow myself, in fact I nearly spun out the other day and could've easily damaged my car and/or myself. That's part of the cost of dealing with snow. But we're stuck with it for several months out of the year, so some of us have decided to find some fun in having a bunch of it around. It's a challenge for sure, but some of us relish that challenge. Others don't, and I hope for the best in their struggles. But none of us can wish the snow away, and the people on this blog aren't about to live in misery just because others are. I don't feel guilty that my preferred weather is putting a strain on others, because it's completely out of my hands. No doubt I will do what I can to alleviate some of the strain, but that doesn't entail the impossible dream of wishing the snow away. And for the record, my blog name is not my real name, it's a reference to a character from the TV show Archer. I feel like you're misgendering me on purpose to be obnoxious anyway. My original comment was mostly tongue-in-cheek by the way, so uh...nice overreaction bro :^)

      Delete
    6. I'm glad seeing things that give so much hardships to others right now makes your day.

      Delete
    7. I like seeing the snow, I don't like seeing the hardships. I thought I was pretty clear on that. I can simultaneously enjoy the ridiculous weather pattern and feel for those who are struggling.

      Delete
    8. No pat on the back necessary just would prefer if people like you pulled up your skirt and quit whining about maintaining your property. If you can't handle it move into an apartment or out of state, it's only 40" of snow over three weeks give me a break, there are communities on the south/east side of the lake where it's not unheard of to get that in a single day from LE. If we were in Boston right now I could see people taking offense for someone saying they were hoping for more snow but we aren't even close to that yet.

      Delete
    9. There are some douchey people on this board. Sounds like a few of you are really high on yourselves.

      Delete
  7. You guys are hardcore but I myself am hoping for some relief. Would like to be able to get outside and enjoy the weather.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm at the point where I am almost over the whole winter thing but part of me wants a big exciting snow storm. But at the same time I know the impacts it would have so I am torn. No matter what happens the cold and snow certainly made up for the lack of winter in the previous months. If spring came right now I think most including myself would be ok with that.

    ReplyDelete
  9. What is happening to that storm for this weekend? Is it going to be one of those 6 inch wet snowfalls that will add additional weight onto the already snow covered roofs? This month has been brutal! The last time I witnessed such a prolong stretch of snow and cold was back in 1979. I have this feeling that once things start thawing out, there are going to be some issues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Won't be thawing for some time -- so we don't need to worry about that for a while. Matter of fact, Spring will come much later this year, so expect March to bring more snow and cold. Still waiting for the blizzard like conditions to appear.

      Delete
    2. Honestly, does anyone know what to expect from this storm this weekend?

      Delete
    3. Not much it appears. Now looking like 1-3 inches max.

      Delete
    4. This weekend: see above
      March: wintry first week, pattern change second week

      Delete
    5. C*4, I hope you're right. I can handle snow, I can deal (grudgingly) with cold, but this is more than enough. I'm tired of my driveway filling in with concrete hard drifts minutes after I clear it. Tired of working overtime to make sure there is water (not ice) for the livestock. I'm not a winter person, like so many on this blog are, I prefer the excitement of fluctuating spring weather and those wonderful SW winds that result in very happy birders.
      So, hope you're right and this will ease at least enough for the "frostproof" faucet in my barn to thaw!

      Delete
    6. Even if the predicted pattern change doesn't pan out you can still fall back on the fact that it ALWAYS warms up eventually. Maintaining an unfrozen water supply in these temps though...that sounds like a rough gig :(

      Delete
    7. It is....challenging. As to warming up, true, it always has before.. ;)

      Delete
  10. I can say this with pretty high confidence: any remaining arctic outbreaks before spring sets in won't be as brutal as the past two have been.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not according to KW and JN; both have stated that another artic blast is headed out way for next week, along with more snow. As they said -- don't expect any relief anytime soon.

      Delete
    2. No one ever said the relief would happen all at once...there's more winter to come but we've already passed rock bottom.

      Delete
  11. By pattern change you mean like 40-50 degrees or just 20-30's degrees. Just trying to get a handle on what is coming. Still a chance for a bigger storm to sneak up on us?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "By pattern change you mean like 40-50 degrees or just 20-30's degrees."
      Option #1 by the look of things right now. For that time of the year it wouldn't be terribly far above average.

      "Still a chance for a bigger storm to sneak up on us?
      Absolutely. Cold of this magnitude frequently throws a tantrum as the tides of spring drag it back to the arctic.

      Delete
  12. I just can't imagine 40-50 degrees right now. It has not been that long since we saw it but February has been one big ice cube. Going to take week for all this snow to melt.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Temperature sure is dropping. -11 at my house. -4 at the airport. But lower by now I'm sure.

    That brings us to 8 days below zero on the season. If the chill holds past midnight that will be 9 days. When the month started I never imagined we could catch last year's 10 sub zero days this year.

    Very possible. Downright likely now.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The Flower City will experience a blizzard within the next 21 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where have you been -- we have missed your Blizzard postings.

      Delete
    2. Tracking possible Blizzard dates.

      Delete
  15. Time to put the rally caps on... That's a reference to little league baseball. You may not understand if you or your son never played ball.

    ReplyDelete
  16. My 5 year old daughter hates getting out of the car and walking through the "slop". I told her to male a game out of it. She started jumping and said she was playing "Slop Scotch".

    I was so proud.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's...actually pretty clever. Yer daughter's a word wizard Harry.

      Delete
  17. Gotta love BGM trying to sweep their horrifically inaccurate lake effect forecast under the rug in their AFD. So the event in their northern zones was "lackluster and produced barely advisory amounts" huh? KSYR got 6.2 inches on the 19th and at least 8 in total even if the arctic front is excluded, how is that "barely advisory amounts?" Moreover, how is that "lackluster" in any way, shape or form? Convenient how they never released any final spotter numbers either. They got completely schooled by the BUF office and now they're not-so-subtly trying to hide that fact...how embarrassing.

    More lake effect is on the way for Sunday night into Monday, but the highest totals by far will be close to the shore. Looks like another advisory level event.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How much for the Metro are your predicting?

      Delete
    2. A few inches near the Thruway to 6 inches lakeside seems like a good starting point to me.

      Delete
  18. I heard there might be a burst of decent snow with the front when it comes through? Is that today or tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I didn't find anything in the AFD about a burst of snow, just an uptick in wind. The timing is late tomorrow afternoon though.

      Delete
  19. One inch here, three to six with some wind there and I have 73 hours overtime and counting, for this two week pay period. That is the most I have had in my 6 years plowing. Currently snowing moderately. I got my drive clean just in time for me to get in the plow truck and push it back into my own drive way. Funny thing happened, I hit my own mail box the other day, we don't discriminate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Time to mail it in?

      Delete
  20. Is that heavier band to the west of us going to swing through here or stay out of the lake?

    ReplyDelete
  21. What are these wind chill watches that are posted? Will they go to advisories or warnings?

    ReplyDelete
  22. Just pulled someone out of the ditch on my way home this evening. That's the second one in the last week. The first was a former student of mine and this afternoon was a former students mother. I enjoy being able to help people. For those anon posters that think us regulars on this blog who like storms are just basement dwellers wishing for storms think again. We are actually productive members of society. We just like winter. Just had to say that after reading some of the negative post on lately about being upset we kind of hope for more storms.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I mean...technically I do live in a basement. My apartment is partially below ground, so-called "garden level." I'm only in it for another week though, then I move back to Henrietta. I'll be about a mile north of the Thruway...practically neighbors with Spreadsheet Guy :P

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CCCC Snowbirds for the winter. More precisely he SnowHawks, moving close to the lake for winter.

      Delete
    2. My only regret is that I didn't move near that lakeside spotter who always magically gets twice as much snow as anyone else...

      Delete
  24. I grew up in Henrietta. I was on the Pittsford side though. Off of pinnacle road.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's not far from where I'm going to be. Barely on the Pittsford side.

      Delete
    2. Off of stone road more specifically. I'll stop just short of giving you my parents address. They r in Florida. Wouldn't want you to throw a house party there haha.

      Delete
  25. CCCC wind chill watches fill me in please?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=Gates-North%20Gates%20NY&product1=Wind+Chill+Watch&lat=43.1554&lon=-77.6788

      "* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

      * WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING 20 TO 30 BELOW."

      Delete
  26. May get to warnings thanks CCCC

    ReplyDelete
  27. That snow this afternoon came with some guts. Although it wasn't a lot of accumation it posed a problem for anyone with bald tires or driving too fast or both. I saw several cars off the road driving back from spencerport. I am assuming that's allshe wrote until lake effect fires up tomorrow night? Or is it sooner?

    ReplyDelete
  28. The great JN said lake effect tomorrow nigh for who I do not know.

    ReplyDelete
  29. 13wham.com near record cold tomorrow night and very windy tomorrow night into Monday with WCs minus 25 to minus 35? They are usually never accurate hence the question mark.

    ReplyDelete
  30. The more I look into the pattern starting next weekend the more intrigued I become. Retrograding western ridges with continued cold air can be a potent combination especially in early March. Some of the NWS offices in the lower Midwest are already starting to key in on that period for some better storm chances, and there is some support for that idea distributed amongst the model guidance. The fun goes on...

    ReplyDelete
  31. The Flower City will experience a Blizzard within the next 14 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Picked up 4" today from that little system. It over performed in my area. Pulling out of my driveway is like pulling out of a tunnel. So cool. Next week looks cold and on and off snowy. Next weekend could be stormy like CCC states. The beat goes on.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Whats your approximate location snow dog? Was snowing moderately when I drove into Greece but out here on the monroe/Orleans county line can't say we had much over 1.5" total.

    SW

    ReplyDelete

Blog Archive