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Tuesday, February 17

Snow-i-cane! AKA Meso Low

Did anybody happen to see the super cool meso low on the western edge of Lake Ontario around noon on Tuesday? No? Here is the visible satellite and the accompanying radar. Light winds created a lake/land breeze boundary in both the north and south shores of Lake Ontario, meeting in the middle (over the lake) and producing this!



113 comments:

  1. News 8: speculation on the weekend event from what the data shows currently/ or any gut feeling yet?

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  2. Can't believe another Wind Chill Warning has gone into effect til Friday. Boy if the lake does not freeze over this time around -- it never will. Hearing more and more stories from people about snow and ice on roofs, and the damage it is beginning to cause. Concern for when it does begin to warm up and start to melt. For those you LOVE winter, it is here to stay for a long time. Even hear that Spring will be late this year, and don't count on any type of warm up for several weeks.

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    Replies
    1. looks like first chance at any warm up is first of march.....cant wait, as much as I love snow, the last 3 weeks has been enough for me.....

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    2. Really hope that warmup takes place we need it.

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  3. Michele in PenfieldFebruary 17, 2015 at 4:04 PM

    That Meso Low is really cool! How often do they typically happen?

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    1. I seem to recall them happening a few times per winter. When they come ashore they can produce decent fluffy snowfalls with very little wind. I also can't recall seeing one ever predicted in advance, they seem to occur by surprise every time.

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  4. Keep the snow and cold coming. Could be good lake effect Wednesday through Friday and then a widespread snow this weekend. I would like it to warm up on March 21st-the first day of spring.

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    1. Hate to tell you, but Spring will be late in arriving according to what I am reading.

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  5. People forget that we had an extremely easy December outside of one storm. Then January was tough on heating bills but lacking in snow. Things have only been truly brutal since the beginning of this month. I would say last winter was far worse in terms of relentlessness, it kicked off near Thanksgiving and slammed us repeatedly until the end of March. This winter can be summarized as one giant haymaker after a long windup, whereas last winter was more like a drawn-out sequence of jabs to the gut.

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  6. What is the deal with this weekend? Nothing too major? Or too early to tell still? NWS seemed to take idea of mix or rain out of the recent discussion. Looks like low will go east of us, not over us or west?

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    1. Right now it looks like snow from a train of several impulses. So kind of similar to last weekend but not as much snow. Definitely still too early to draw concrete conclusions.

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  7. The BUF AFD claims that the airmass for lake effect will be sufficiently saturated for significant amounts, while the BGM AFD claims that it will be very dry and also problematic for snow crystal growth due to extremely low temps. Slight difference of opinion there maybe? I'm going to side with the office whose main forte is lake effect, plus a meteorologist on AmericanWx who nailed the last event and explained why the super cold temps won't inhibit decent ratios the entire time. It boils down to upward heat flux from Lake Ontario manufacturing a dendritic growth zone and promoting some semblance of a fluff factor. In other words, heat energy from the lake rises into the atmosphere and brings a part of it into the proper temperature range for dendrites (read: fluff, which forms most effectively at temperatures between -10C and -20C). That happened briefly with the last event when the intense squall went through...we managed a period of fluffy dendrites instead of the moon dust we had been getting prior.

    Extremely cherrypick-ish but my point forecast has me getting 10 inches from just the lake effect. I'd be satisfied with half that amount, which is what I'm expecting at the moment. I can definitely see parts of southern Oswego County nearing two feet.

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    Replies
    1. Are you looking at 10 inches along the lake, or is that for the Metro Rochester area too? Just want clarification.

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    2. That's number is for my specific location. This is the current forecast from the NWS:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnow.shtml

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    3. Good. I am in the 8-10 as well.

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    4. CCCC not sure if your specific location. Are you by one of the Lake Shore Communities?

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  8. Still think that Lake effect snow advisories should go up for Orleans and Monroe counties but who am I. I think they will eventually put them up when they see the snow flying.

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  9. Will we see Winter Weather Advisories, Watches, or Warnings for the weekend; especially Saturday night into Monday. Hey what would a weekend in February be without a Winter Weather event. What are folks seeing, and how much snow? Snow packs are getting a little high, and just trying to gauge how much higher they might get. Hate having to pull almost out into the middle of the street to see if any cars are coming. Something really needs to be done with the snow piles in the City -- especially at intersections.

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  10. Well some of the models indicate the storm passes right over us and gives us a brief bought of snow then a mix and then a change to plain rain. That would suck. Other models give us all snow with a track across central Pa. The storm will not be that strong either so it will not be a lot of snow.

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    1. PDII wasn't very strong either, but it dumped a lot of snow. Depends upon the moisture feed and the amount of overrunning more than the actual strength.

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    2. I am just worried about a westward track giving us rain.

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    3. I'm worried about that possibility too, and for more than selfish reasons. Imagine SNE getting a few inches of very warm rain on top of their massive snowpack...they're going to need to build a few arks if that happens.

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  11. That is what they said last weekend, and had about 6-7 inches of now overnight on Saturday into Sunday, and with the wind chill -- it made shoveling a challenge.

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  12. Models cant decide whether they to develop a single storm and bring it up through the Ohio Valley, or to have waves of low pressures riding a cold front crossing the area. The 12Z GFS has a single storm and that is how I would lean at the moment. It appears there is a good possibility that between the LES tonight through Friday and this weekends storm MOST of the area will be doing a lot of shoveling again.

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    1. If the 12z GFS verifies then we'll be shoveling meltwater.

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    2. It would be snow at the onset changing to a mix of snow/rain possibly all rain Rochester east and south then back to snow. Here in Hamlin it would probably stay all snow with that 12Z run.

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  13. Getting a single rainstorm in an ocean of snow and cold would be extremely annoying at best, and at worst would exacerbate future flooding issues. Sadly that's where the current trend appears to be taking us...still plenty of time for a reversal though. Ensembles are still mainly south.

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    1. A pure rainstorm at this point looks unlikely, unless it shifts well west of us. I would be leaning more on snow changing to a mix then back to snow.

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    2. TWC has the weekend event going through central PA and the rain snow line in Central PA as well, not that I put a lot of stock in what they forecast but its nice to know what they re thinking....rain at this point is the absolute last thing we need....

      Adam

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    3. I still say the same myself, but NW trends at this range are always a bit scary to contend with.

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  14. Good lord today's model runs are like a rainbow of ugly...

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    1. What do you mean?

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    2. The GFS is warm, the GGEM is warmer, the UKMET looks as warm as the GGEM and the JMA early in its run already looks like it wants to have a low party in Cleveland. Rainbow of ugly, fifty shades of hideous, yadda yadda you get the picture.

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  15. The GFS has us in the 40's. Not good.

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  16. No tweets from KW. It would be nice to see what he is thinking as well as channel 8.

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  17. Imagine the weenie implosion right now if we had been cold and dry for three weeks instead of cold and snowy...we'd be talking Castle Bravo levels of pure nuclear devastation.

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  18. 40's for Sunday? With decent moisture it will create quite the mess. I'm not rooting for snow any more but don't think a lot of rain and back to freezing is any better.

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  19. Still early, but I am going to put my money on this being a mostly if not all snow event form Rochester to the west. Either way the snow pack will absorb a lot of rain before we would have to be concerned about any flooding issue this go around, especially with the marginal temps we would be talking about with this scenario.

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    1. Agreed on point #1, we're at a range where at least some correction SE is essentially a given. Plus I can't see that pressing arctic airmass allowing today's warm solutions to verify.

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  20. Deep snowpack and a cold lake Ontario with NE winds, this storm will have to track well west to have the 40's be realized. I could see a foggy 34 degree rain for a time not much for melting deep snow.

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  21. It would be nice to hear what the experts say. Models do not always tell the whole picture.

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  22. Time for KW to swoop down from his twitter perch, take us all into his warm reassuring bear hug and tell us that everything will be okay.

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    Replies
    1. LOL. U are too funny. Thanks for that. LMAO.

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  23. KBUF AFD says mixed precip south, no mention of rain, only snow North.
    KBGM AFD talks about rain.
    I guess that makes sense given Binghamton is south.

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  24. Not exactly a local expert, but just as good: Don Paul is still on the mostly snow bandwagon with a mention of possible mixing.

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    1. Who is Don Paul and where do you get his discussion?

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    2. I hear the internet has some really useful tools to help with such a search nowadays! ;-)

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    3. Michele in PenfieldFebruary 18, 2015 at 2:27 PM

      Don Paul is the met from WIVB.com out of Buffalo. The blog there is a good one to follow and Don does post quite a bit.

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    4. I just wish certain people there would quit acting as if wishing for snow is a crime against humanity -_-

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  25. How much snow are we talking for the weekend storm?

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    Replies
    1. CCCC should probably consider making his own FAQ page with a link as his signature.

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  26. The snow we get this weekend will be a wetter snow keeping acc. down. Ratios to the liquid equivalent will be much lower than in previous events (no fluff). The accompying LE that we are going to get after the system passes Sunday night into Monday when temps fall through the floor is where we will get most of our accumulations...(localized areas of course).

    Adam

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  27. Wow, the ECMWF sides with the GEM, way NW of previous runs. I am not ready to flip flop with the models after one sequence of runs, but the EURO has me a little worried about a possible wetter solution at the moment. I am still at the moment thinking they are to far north, but who knows.

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  28. How much precip are models spitting out for this weekend? I mean in terms of liquid equivalent?

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    1. Looks like less then .5" to me, so I'm not really too concerned either way.

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  29. The trend is not our freind. The storm is not that big anyway. It would be a WWA at best. It also looks like the lake effect over the next fews days will not be that impressive either.

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  30. I don't care if it snows or not. But I really don't want a bunch of rain only to go back into the freezer. Frozen snow piles suck.

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  31. We're going to have some more storm potentials to track over the next few weeks after the weekend system crustifies our snowpack. I think the writing is on the wall for this one though: we aren't going to remain all snow. Perhaps we avoid any liquid rain, but I'm finding it difficult to justify a return to all snow.

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  32. This squall line means business...nearing 2 inches and it's only been snowing for an hour. Good sized flakes are still coming down hard too.

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  33. The track can still change. It is only Wednesday. Still time for a change.

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  34. If I had to bet I would put most of my money on a colder solution with a little mix but mostly snow. We have not had one track over us lately and the cold air to the north may be enough to push it SE enough. But since I ddnt bet all my money on that scenario I'll have some left over to buy an umbrella if it rains!

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  35. Yesterday was the first day this month without measurable snow. We are 11.2 degrees below normal for the month and only 1 of 17 days was above freezing. It was 34.

    That's some stretch.

    http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=buf

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    1. we don't have privileged accounts to view that link like you do :(

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  36. The problem is that the page in that link isn't actually linkable. Go here:

    http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf

    ...and select Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) from the Product section, then select Rochester from the Location section. Then click the yellow Go button on the right and a window will pop up displaying this month's climate data.

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  37. Second squall was even more intense than the first, probably 3 inches per hour for a brief time and fluffy flakes once again. Around 4 inches total so far which already brings me close to what I was expecting for the entire event...and there's still a whole day remaining. Some other unofficial reports from CNY are in the 4-6 inch range. Needless to say I think BUF's forecast will come much closer to verifying than BGM's, which really shouldn't have been surprising in the first place.

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  38. Yeah, and BUF pretty much nailed the timing and intensity in there discussion. Still plenty of time left for the weekend event, but as it stands now, thinking 3-5" with a few waves of LP riding the stalled front, who knows what the EURO will bring though...

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  39. The system for the weekend is very weak so a rain scenario is highly unlikely. I say mostly snow with some mix south. A few inches at best with this one. It will not be strong enough to pull much warm air north.

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  40. The models have trended South again. We should expect all snow here for the weekend. Like Weatherguy said 3-5 at best.. I had 5" from yesterday snows. Pretty good. Keeps on coming.

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  41. Though we all like the snow, just looking for a little bit of a break; especially if you are one of the people who live in the metro and now have to move your car for the next 24-hours. Did they not realize now the snow would pile up, and look at doing something sooner rather than waiting til now. So at 11pm tonight when you get off from work, you park in one of the downtown parking garages, and then walk home from there.

    Know will get blasted on the blog, but just would like a little bit of a break from the snow and cold -- so that some of the snow pack can melt a little bit. For those who want more snow 12+ or more per day -- you must not live in the Metro where we are at the point of running out of room to put the snow.

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    1. Had heavy snows along 104 this morning between 6 and 730 picked up several more inches between last nights lake band and this mornings.

      Adam

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  42. Is this weekends snow and above freezing temps on Sunday going to add a lot if weight to roof tops? Or is the window of time we are above freezing pretty small?

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  43. I would say there is nothing about this weekends forecast even close to being set in stone. The models continue to flip flop with the idea of a single stronger further north system or a suppressed mess of a system. I still like the idea of all snow with temps staying bellow freezing for the entire event. It is windy, snowing and the sun is shinning this morning. I am on the B-shift it is rare I get to sit home and watch the snow falling. I would rather be plowing I guess.

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  44. I doubt it. It will be a heavier snow but only a few inches. WWA will probably go up tomorrow or Saturday.

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  45. Sounds like NWS is going with all snow for our area. Mix/rain maybe southern tier but even that wasn't a garauntee. They said advisory level snow possible. They said it wi be heavy and wet. Even 3-5 inches of heavy wet snow will be a lot of additio weight for roof tops. Looks like I may nee to break out the roof before weekend.

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  46. We already have leaks in the roof at work. Roofer having problems getting up to it with all of the snow and ice.

    Agreed even with 3-5 inches of the heavy wet snow, will add to the snow piles already let along what is on roof tops. For those who are wishing for it to continue to snow -- keep in mind how it is impacting all of us.

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    Replies
    1. Beware the power of wishing, t'is the greatest power of them all.

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  47. It doesn't matter if we wish for more snow or not, it is not under our control what the weather does. SO OUR WISHING AFFECT NO ONE. The current guidance is looking less than impressive for snow totals at this point. With that said I would have to wait for some run to run consistency before throwing out any numbers. It currently appears minor though.

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  48. Remember when I said an all snow scenario was pretty much off the table? Neither do I ;o

    Just amazing how putrid the models have been this winter. They couldn't predict the sunrise beyond 36 hours of lead time the way things have gone. Completely useless. I'm just going to let the situation resolve itself without making any of my own predictions, meanwhile the models can bounce this thing between a Montana cutter and a Caribbean hurricane before coming to a consensus by next Thursday.

    About 6 inches of new snow since the start of the lake effect event. Things have largely died down for the time being but I expect business to pick up again by later tonight. The wind is causing near whiteouts along north-south roadways near open spaces.

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  49. Question - What is the official current snow depth for Rochester? Also, what is the 24 hr snowfall record since 2005? Thank you!

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    1. Snow Depth reported at the airport is 15 inches

      http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf

      Not sure about the 24 hour snowfall record.
      Why since 2005??

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    2. Snow depth at my house is way more than 15 inches. I'd guess twice that.

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  50. Remember it's the airport....bs measurements and its wide open prone to blowing/drifting.

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  51. The system for Friday is trending South. The GFS had us at 40 yesterday and is now 33 for a high on Sunday. It will be a light snow system though. Still look at probably 2-4 at best with lake effect behind it.

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    1. For Sunday do you feel we will get 2-4 inches, and then how much will Lake Effect following. What is total amount you feel?

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  52. Why the NWS does not have lake effect advisories up for Orleans and MOnoroe county is beyond me.

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    1. Have to say in the Rochester Metro we have sun and very little snow has fallen, except for some light fluff this morning. Probably won't do a Lake Effect Advisory for just a portion of Monroe County by the Lakeshore, which is receiving it fair share. Probably why it is called Lake Effect.

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  53. 1.5 inches of new snow at the airport today brings the monthly total up to 38.3, our 8th snowiest February on record with 9 days to go and at least one more decent snowfall on tap. Top 5 will almost certainly be achieved, top 3 is well within the realm of possibilities. The top 2 are safely out of reach unless we get a big storm in the final few days. The seasonal number is up to 81.7 inches, nearly 10 above average and about 3 ahead of last season to this date.

    Snow has been periodically heavy up here since about 3pm. Much of it is dendrites despite the frigid temps, probably due to that upward heat flux I mentioned a few days ago. Some of you may have heard today that Lake Ontario is 80 percent ice covered and quite possibly close to freezing over. That number comes from the following graphics:

    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/cur/glsea_cur.png
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/ice/gif/o2014_2015_ice.gif

    This leaves me wondering if the person who does those analyses needs an eye exam, because this is the satellite imagery from the day before those graphics were made:
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/buf_img/a1.15048.1811.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg

    "But CCCC, it's been so cold that maybe the ice cover has expanded rapidly since then." To which I respond with today's imagery:
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/buf_img/a1.15050.1754.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg

    Clear as crystal that our giant liquid snow machine is nowhere close to freezing over. Hell it's not even half ice covered let alone 80 percent. The ice from a few days ago was probably thin sheets and slush, clearly no match for today's wind which broke it apart and shoved it eastward.

    "The rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated." -Lake Ontario, 2/19/15

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  54. my afternoon went like this: snow blow driveway, put together roof rake, attempt to take as much off of eaves as I could reach from ground, notice how much friggin snow is up there, get tired and winded, go inside, check blog, refresh every 5 minutes. Just kidding about the 5 minute part but I do check in periodically to see if anyone is on.

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  55. Welp...

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ003&warncounty=NYC055&firewxzone=NYZ003&local_place1=Webster%20NY&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Advisory&lat=43.2147&lon=-77.4185

    "...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
    ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY.

    * LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE AND NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTIES. HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.

    * TIMING...THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY.

    * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

    * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

    * WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 30 BELOW.

    * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW STEAMERS. DANGEROUS COLD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY."

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    1. Those Snow Steamers are Dangerous.

      Think of the flooding.

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  56. That's no joke but they misspelled streamers as "steamers" in the last paragraph lol. Since the part of farmington I live in is only a stones throw from the Monroe and Wayne county lines, can I consider myself part of that advisory? ;-)

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    1. FYI. The airport is excluded from that advisory.
      Only planes fly at KROC.

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    2. Their lake effect steamer keeps accidentally melting some of the snow.

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  57. What's the cover charge to join the club?

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    1. A bucket of frozen squirrels, ten kiwi fruits and a jar of fingernails.

      Or alternatively 14 dollars.

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  58. My detailed forecast on the NWS page was an inch or less of snow about an hour ago, not nighttime snow is 2-4". Wonder what changed so quickly? Must be I got a free month in the advisory club for northern counties.

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  59. Won the lucky bullseye for that long streamer stretching across Orleans county into Monroe. Currently at 5" or so in Clarendon/Holley for total LE. It does add up; as CCCC said a ways back, we continue the dime and quarter pattern. 44" total by my count here since Feb. 1st.

    SW

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  60. We've gotten a few dollar bills mixed in there too.

    I can see another 4-6 inches north of downtown by late tomorrow morning, with 2-4 between the Thruway and US-20.

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  61. Meanwhile the snow has picked up in intensity once again. Visibility has to be below a quarter mile right now.

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  62. There has been no discussion on the weekend system. Looks like a very light event if you can call it that. I do not see many chances for snow besides lake effect over the next several days. What do u think CCC?

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  63. I think we're going to start seeing better storm chances as the western trough retrogrades late in the month. Definitely wouldn't call the weekend event "very" light, although it certainly doesn't look too impressive at the moment. Now watch as the 00z runs deepen it to 980mb and send it across Chicago -_-

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    1. Western trough? Wtf I meant western ridge. Good god :(

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  64. I heard recently that the snow piles at some airports in Maine are close to exceeding FAA height regulations. That's just an incomprehensible level of absurdity.

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    1. Picked up about 4" again last night north of Holley...looks like weekend system has slid a little further south, atleast we wont be getting heavy wet snow with temps in the upper 20's.

      Adam

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  65. Looks like 3-5 inches of wet snow for tomorrow based on WU discussion.

    SW

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  66. I would say more like 2-4. Winter weather advisories should go up later today or tonight. Not going to be a big deal but will add to our unbelieveable snow pack. Have not seen it like this in years. No big storms on the horizon.

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  67. Question is within the Metro; where do we begin to put all of the snow. More street closing in attempt to remove the mount of snow which already exist. Can't remember when this ever happened. Have to say walking from one of the parking garages last night to my apt -- was really cold by the time got home; especially at 11pm. Was not fun. For those who love this weather -- I know you are enjoying it, and as I see there is more to come of both.

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  68. I would say on the low end of the 2-4 as well. The system is very weak and not much moisture to work with.

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