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Monday, March 9

32 days and counting...


Written By:  Scott Hetsko

We all know that our weather has been truly historic especially during the month of February.  Here's another example of that remarkable Winter.  Today is now the 32nd straight day with at least 12" of snow covering the ground officially in Rochester.  We have had many Winter months when not even an inch of snow stayed on the ground that long!  I scoured the records and couldn't find anything similar for our region for at least the last 70 years!

So when your parents or grandparents say, "I remember when we had snow up to our knees all Winter" you can now say you did too.  At least you'd be right!

165 comments:

  1. And there are those who believe by the end of the week the snow pack will be almost or pretty much gone. Guess this tells you different. Plus 10 is talking of more Winter Weather headed out way for the weekend and then last two weeks in March. For those who are looking for Spring -- think you will have to wait some time.

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  2. 10 just reaching for ratings again so do not buy into that 2 weeks down the road stuff.You notice Rochesters Most Accurate says nothing about more snow in the future.

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  3. Because we had 32 straight days of snow cover it won't melt? I don't think that is what it tells us.

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  4. -Channel 10 isn't reaching in regards to this weekend, although talking about more wintry weather during the second half of the month might be jumping the gun. Those are details to be ironed out later IMO.
    -Notice how "Rochester's Most Accurate" doesn't equate to "Everything We Say Goes." Lack of mention does not equate to lack of possibility.
    -The only place I need to look for spring is right outside my window, where the sun is shining, birds are chirping and the snow is steadily melting. Today won't even be the warmest day of the week and there is already a noticeable decrease in snow depth where I am.

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  5. CCCC but this weekend will be rain not snow that is safe.

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    Replies
    1. It's definitely not safe. Not with several days remaining. Remember when last weekend was supposed to be mostly plain rain...it ended up as mostly snow with a few hours of freezing rain at the end. All snow is probably off the table, a period of accumulating snow before a changeover is most certainly not.

      Delete
  6. To me it looks like mostly a light rain event this weekend. I do not think it will be cold enough to start out as snow. Rain is ok by me as long as it is not heavy. We will lose a lot of the snow pack this week with a nice easy snow melt. I am ready for spring although I would like to see us over 100" for the year. Next week looks more wintry.

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  7. There will be no more major snowfall and winter is over. As I have been saying we are getting rewarded for the brutal February with a meek March. That is fine with me. Our winter happened all in one month this year. However the winter was not great for major snow storms we were nickled and dimed to death.

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  8. Oh my good lord, this weekend is not a winter event! All RAIN people! Stop getting people flustered over winter weather, its not happening this weekend! Sorry folks, but NBD on this one!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Talking beyond this weekend.

      Delete
    2. No one was ramping this up as a big event. Anyone so as much mentions the word snow on here anymore and there you go with your "!!!!!!" and "CAPS" screaming NBD. Stop jamming up the Blog. This is supposed to be a free discussion of the weather which includes all possibilities.You're an idiot, go away.

      SW

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    3. I am so sick of hearing Anon say NBD on this one. NBD on this one. Can you say something different.

      Delete
  9. I wouldn't be betting my mortgage on those predictions. We may not go back to days and days in the low 20's but it doesn't need to be that cold for winter weather. If blocking sets up anything can happen. I'm hoping for a orderly ramp up of temperatures but I doubt it's going to be that easy.

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  10. KW and RC have all talked about the last two weeks, especially the last week in March for temps to turn colder, not as colder as February's was, but it will definitely be colder; plus as both have said, "if you believe that winter is over, it is not". So who knows what the next couple of weeks will bring -- probably more snow and cold.

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    Replies
    1. Anyone that states winter is over is ignoratnt. It can snow in May. The last BIG Ice storm we had was in April. I was out of power for 5 days.

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    2. KW is a blowhard looking for ratings.

      Delete
  11. Nope to more snow and cold. NBD the next 3 weeks.

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    Replies
    1. I think I will trust history and the Mets as you do not know what you are talking about.

      Delete
  12. FROM KW:

    2/2: I don't foresee return to sub-zero's, but colder than normal + active storm track = more snow accumulation 2nd half of month.

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  13. Hello Snowdog this translates into please come back and tune me in nightly. Do not fall for it Snowdog because the second half of the month will be near normal temperatures and a few flurries which thus equals NBD.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Predictions without putting your name behind it are worthless.

      Delete
  14. Who honestly thinks this wasn't a good winter for major storms? Referencing the comment from much earlier...a lot of folks consider 10+ inches to be a "major" storm, in which case we got 3 this winter. I consider the GHD storm to be 10+ inches even though the highly dubious "official" number was only around 8. All of the surrounding spotter reports were near or over a foot, in some cases substantially so. My cutoff for "major" is 12 inches, in which case we only had one "major" storm (13 inches), but the other two were close enough. As for the debate over whether winter is over or not, I suppose it's a matter of subjective interpretation. Some people take winter down to the last appreciable snowfall, others end it once the birds start chirping. The way I see it we have several days of (relatively) mild temperatures and steady melting ahead of us, along with markedly increasing daily average temps, so in my personal book of inconsequential buffoonery spring has absolutely begun. Periods of winter-like weather are a different matter, and in my view we may still have one or two more of those remaining. The teleconnection trends for late month leave some room for winter to take one last swipe at us as it retreats, despite the desire of most to have spring arrive without complications or wintry backlash. Basically: winter is going, mostly gone, but not quite out of our hair just yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So basically you are agreeing with KW, RC, and JN. Winter could make one last visit to use towards the end of the month.

      Delete
  15. Winter could make multiple "last appearances" in March, April and unfortunately May!

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  16. Is it really going to rain/snow mix this weekend??? Some are saying rain/some are saying snow. Will there be ice or sleet, and if so how much? I have to work Saturday night and don't want to drive home on icy roads. Any insight from our board experts??

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    Replies
    1. Only look for response from HP, CCCC, or Snowdog -- anyone who is Anonymous I would hesitate to go by their input. Especially the NBD blogger.

      Delete
  17. All rain for weekend!

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  18. All rain this weekend.

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  19. All rain this weekend.

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  20. Yup imposters as they usually give more statistic data and refer to chart/graphs vs. one line responses.

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  21. PV coming back in a week or so for a few days.

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  22. Weekend looks like mix to rain. No impersonations here, this is the real deal :P

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  23. Weekend is NBD and this is too the real deal.

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    Replies
    1. I think the late, great Bill Peterson coined the phrase " No Big Deal". I watched Bill Peterson, I admired Bill Peterson. You, sir, are no Bill Peterson.

      Delete
  24. Agree with CCC. It looks like mostly light rain. Even though it will pass south of us there is just no cold air. No threat for flooding as there will not be a lot of rain. It will wash all the salt away. That's good.

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  25. Just got back from sledding with my daughter at Mendon Ponds. Not too often you get to sled on a solid foot+ of dense snow pack at 7 pm in the daylight. 45 degrees and windless to boot.

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  26. I went to a hockey game one time with a friend of mine. We sat three rows up from center ice, real good seats. Anyway we both root for the same team, and they got off to a quick start with a pretty goal mere seconds in. Quite a nice cause for celebration right? Not tonight, for the highly rational crowd knew that a 1-0 lead was no big deal. So in unison they rose from their seats, took big deep breaths, and triumphantly shouted "NBD!" Five minutes later another one, backhander top shelf on a scramble this time. Two nil, pretty solid lead for so early in the game. But as we all know, a 2-0 lead has happened many times before. So once again in unison, the crows rose from their seats, took big deep breaths, and boastfully belted "NBD!" Fast forward to near the end of the period...it's a 2-on-1 rush for two of our superstars. Sure enough, they pot another one. And sure enough, possessing the savvy to realize that a 3-0 lead is nowhere close to a big blowout, the crowd rose in unison once again, took big deep breaths, and loudly declared "NBD!"

    Second period arrives, and the opponent takes only a few minutes to get one back. 3-1 still seems to be a good situation, but the folks in the crowd knew better than that. "We're only going to win by one goal at this rate" grumbled one fan. "What a disappointing game so far, can't believe we haven't even scored a powerplay goal yet" moaned another. Ten minutes pass, another goal for the enemy. Now the crowd is getting downright incensed. "I paid good money to see THIS?! Was expecting so much more." "This game sucks. So boring." "Why don't we ever have any BIG blowouts?" And they were right to be angry, for despite their team's position atop the league standings they had yet to win a game by more than 5 goals all season. One by one, the disappointed fans began to filter out of the arena, headed home to lament over this terrible game.

    The two teams proceeded to trade opportunities, but neither could cash in until a late flurry by the hometown heroes. Final score: 5-2. The remaining fans were quite content with the lopsided victory, but were ultimately foolish for hanging around. It's as if they believed this was Game 7 of the Stanley Cup and their team was going to win by double digits...what dopes! They should've stopped wasting their time when it became clear that this game would be nothing special. And as the last of the fans filtered out, headed home to reflect upon this convincing victory, the jumbotron awoke to illuminate the following three letters:

    "N. B. D."

    fin

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  27. Models all quiet for the next 10-14 days which basically takes us to spring. Rain is all we will have to deal with the next 3 weeks. Things melting and our weather is looking up so bye bye winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THE RESPITE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
      BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF
      THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
      MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A
      DRAMATIC COOLDOWN FOR THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
      PUSHES 850MB TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -18C RANGE...PUSHING
      HIGHS BACK INTO THE 30S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE 20S BY TUESDAY. IN
      FACT...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RETURN TO COLDER
      WEATHER COULD PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER
      LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED....KEEPING THE LOWER
      GREAT LAKES OPEN TO ROUNDS OF ARCTIC AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE
      NORTHWEST.

      Delete
    2. Anon 9:27. You are ridiculous. What do you base your crap on? Thanks Weatherguy for showing him the truth,

      Delete
    3. Snowdog show me any models that are depicting any storm possibilities the next 7-10 days for Rochester? There are none so stop hoping for another big snow storm.

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    4. Did I say anything about a Snowstorm???? I said it is going to get colder than normal again. No-one can predict storms.

      Delete
  28. The nice SLOW melt continues. The rain this weekend should be minimal and on Sunday when most the moisture arrives it will be cold enough for snow. Hopefully we keep losing our snowpack in a slow fashion to minimize flooding issues and allow us snow lovers plenty of time to continue enjoying the snow pack.

    Next week looks to be well below average and indications are that winter returns for the last half of the month per the Wx professionals. We average nearly 16" of snow in March, we are about half way there, and there is no reason to believe we won't hit around our average given the cold for the balance of the month.

    Andy

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Andy! Your opinions are the best without all the scientific model stuff.

      Though it will be colder for the last half of March, do you see any huge storms or rain events that would be of concern?

      Delete
  29. Euro and GFS showing a return to cold and snow by the end of next week. Winter is NOT over. This weekends rain will be minimal at best. May see some snow Sunday into Monday.

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  30. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA Mr. Snowdog putting stock into the models 10 days away showing cold and snow. It will be March 20th by then. Do you really think it will be very cold and we will have any heavy snow then? Winter is OVER my friend and the end of next week will be as they say NBD.

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    Replies
    1. You make me laugh!!!

      Delete
    2. "Models are all quiet for the next 10-14 days so no more snow."
      "Snowdog is dumb for trusting the models showing snow 10 days out."

      I should hope those two sentiments weren't both expressed by the same person...

      Delete
    3. Love it. Controdiction by Anon.

      Delete
    4. Predictions posted without a name are worthless. This troll can come here and say stupid things that are completely wrong and do so in complete anonymity without having to face future ridicule.

      I always sign my predictions with pride.
      No prediction so no signature.

      Delete
    5. Snowdog spelling? Contra or Contro?

      Delete
  31. Whether anyone likes it or not, we're probably going to have some opportunities for snow in the medium to extended range. The ensemble means and teleconnections argue for a return to troughiness in the East starting about a week from now. I want to emphasize that we aren't going to come anywhere near the extremes we had in February, but average temps by that time will still be low enough that the expected temp departures can perhaps yield some snow events. Obviously the operational models won't reveal any specific events from this range, so the best we can do is look at the pattern and leave the details for a better time.

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  32. March can be a cruel month. I worry about heavy mixed events and the dreaded ice for the next 2 weeks or so.

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    Replies
    1. April is the cruelest month...

      Delete
  33. Remember the snow we got Saturday night which was a quick 2-3"; how do I know this as I was out at an fundraising event, and by 10am -- have a good solid 2 inches on my car. So we can get snow, and more than likely will get some next week. Just how cold and how much is yet to be determined.

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  34. March has its surprises. How soon do we all forget last March 12, actually 1 year from tomorrow. Blizzard???

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  35. Ohhhhh....that Blizzard??? NBD

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  36. I remember spending all of that morning outside in some amazing weather conditions...then I came here and people were complaining that the flakes were too small. Ultimately they got fluffier and everyone received well over a foot in total. Some of the drifts were several feet high. That storm wasn't much of a surprise, there were actually signs of it appearing 10 days out. What ended up being surprising was the sudden shift in track and intensity just a few days out, as all of the models suddenly converged upon a very intense system producing a large amount of snow. I actually screencapped one of the many absurd NAM runs that showed a widespread 2-3 feet. Probably the most fun storm of my life, hell even the power outage was a good time.

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  37. I think a week from today we will be tracking a storm that will be brewing.

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  38. Something you see on models or just a hunch? Farmers almanac? Has that thing been accurate this year? Never really look into it much.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 11, 2015 at 9:00 PM

    Soooo…winter not quite over, I understand…but…which previous winter is the closest analog to this one? 2006-07 had a similar duration, but less severe. 2003-04 started about the same time, but ended earlier…and we were buried in lake effect in Sodus Point all winter. The record-breaking severity obviously was unique.

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  40. March is almost over, still no storm in sight! Snow pack is steadily melting in this mild weather! Spring is starting to move in! This weekend's event is ALL RAIN! Sorry folks, but NBD for the rest of March it looks!!!

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    Replies
    1. Ugh please stop saying sorry folks NBD and using !!! all the time, its annoying and gets my panties in a knot!

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    2. NBD baby! Booyah!! Winter OVER!!

      Delete
  41. Yes Anon 7:41 it will be 50s tomorrow and models show no big storms in the next 10 days so let the spring begin with NBD.

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  42. Not sure if we should raise the age you can quit or take internet access out of schools.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. unsure? NBD...Try some Sure under your arms, it may help.

      Delete
  43. If it suppose to be in the 50's tomorrow why does News 8 have a forecast high of 39 degrees for tomorrow????

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    Replies
    1. Asleep at the wheel? Not sure but 50's is correct. Any precip this weekend will be NBD.

      Delete
    2. you need to watch their daily forecast and not go by the temps which appear on the website as they are usually computer generated, and rapidly change throughout the day.

      Delete
  44. I am not sure if News 8 is the most accurate Weather around. I question it sometimes??

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  45. For those inquiring, this weekend will be RAIN ONLY! Sorry folks, but NBD on this one!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are socially and emotionally stunted.

      Delete
  46. Sgt. Enbeedee receives so little fulfillment from his day-to-day life that he must visit this blog several times per day, and leave the same general comment over and over, in the hopes that someone else's ire will help to distract him from his unfortunate life for just a few brief moments. He does not believe a word of what he says, for he exists merely to feed off of the negative emotions of others. "If I must be miserable," he laments while stroking his gangly neck hairs, "then so must everyone else." He mustn't be feared or reviled, for he is a pitiful creature consisting mainly of lipid cells and unfulfilled desires. Perhaps one day he will burst forth from his self-made onslaught of cheetos and pony stickers, and discover an island of comforting truth that may free him from his prison of self-loathing and regret. Godspeed Sgt. Enbeedee, and may the loving embrace of Rainbow Dash mend your broken heart :')

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I merely exist so you will write paragraphs about me rather than the non-sense you spew in foreign languages that are as off kilter and boring as Sheldon's roommate agreement. It absolutely bothers you! And it alwayyyyyys works :) Thanks Sheldon!

      Delete
    2. You think I'm bothered? I'll let you know when I'm bothered. As it is I'm just having some fun at your expense while honing my writing skills. By the way, "umad" and its variants aren't enough to declare victory nowadays, so you're gonna have to try harder from now on.

      Delete
    3. By the way, thanks for explicitly agreeing with one of my claims and implicitly agreeing with the others ;o

      Delete
  47. The ensembles and teleconnection forecasts after mid month continue to indicate a pattern that could yield some snowfall, so confidence is rising that we aren't done with the white stuff just yet. The mean trough axis looks too far east for any large STJ-driven storm, but we can still get some clippers to ride down the backside of the trough and redevelop near/off the coast. The flow may de-amplify again towards the end of the month, which would bring temps back closer to average.

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  48. Sorry folks, but I can now predict with certainty that we will receive one last significant, plowable snowfall before winter leaves us behind for good.
    How do I know?
    Today I removed the plow from my truck.

    SW

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  49. According to KW and RC, winter will make it return the middle of next week with colder temps and snow. So to NBD who says that winter is over and spring is here; seems that you are WRONG. KW has even mentioned that next weekend might be worth watching for winter to truly re-emerge with possible significant snow fall. Will have to watch and see. In the meantime, enjoy today, as you won't see the sun and 50 degree temp for a while. Spring again will be late in arriving, just saying.

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    Replies
    1. As I've said before, KW is a blowhard looking for ratings. Listening to him is like listening to Fox News predicting a presidential election. He reports what he is hoping so he basis his reports on the extremes of the models.

      Delete
  50. Once again Anon 7:57 you fall for the ratings boost plug by KW and RC. Predicting possible significant snowfall 8 days out is laughable. Even more laughable since the models show no storm possibilities in this time frame. Plus it will be March 21st next Saturday which makes it highly unlikely to get a significant snow fall. So please stop our weather is NBD and spring is coming get over it and stop putting fake rating boosting information out there. Maybe you are KW or RC who knows.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe you should actually look at the models yourself... we are indeed going to get more snow in the coming weeks. Maybe not a ton, probably not significant, but there will be some. You naysayers have probably never viewed a model run in your life. If you have nothing more informative to post then "it will be March 21st next Saturday", then just stop posting, seriously. You're what's truly laughable here.

      Delete
    2. I simply posted it on the blog as to what KW and RC said, and for others who views models/charts could chime in as to what they are seeing and sense for that period of time. I would NEVER question the professional abilities of our local weather folks nor was I implying that I was. I simply wanted to see what others were thinking. I know ratings are important to all of the local TV stations, but there is also a level of professionalism and responsibility to the public that our local weather must maintain, and to state that any of them would put the public's safety at risk to increase their ratings is simply wrong, and if that is what any one is doing -- they have a moral obligation to look at themselves and question their professionalism and are they doing what is right. All that I have to say on the matter.

      Delete
  51. Ayy Ayy Ayy possible significant snow was posted not going to get more snow. Stop the false hype train that comes from KW/JN.

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  52. It isn't hype if it hasn't happened yet. People need to learn the difference between a forecast and a discussion.

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  53. Discussing a possible outcome that I don't want = hype. Haven't we learned this by now? In all seriousness I don't think I need to repeat what's already been stated ad nauseum about future snow chances, so I'll just let it be unless something drastically changes. The 06z GFS snow map looks pretty great by the way...

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    Replies
    1. The Pied Piper is calling.... Here come the rats....

      Delete
    2. I'll give CCCC credit this time around. There are chances for some snow just not a ton like some posters and local mets want to have happen. We can easily get another 5-7 inches before the month is over. Just not in one sitting.

      Delete
    3. And sadly we can get snow in April and May! Record for April is 20" and May 10."

      Winter is closing and the calendar says spring in another week, but winter weather can still visit at any time and is very likely will before the fat lady sings.

      Delete
  54. I like the relatively slow rain free melt we've had.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed it's been a nice slow melt with lots of sun... Really a good scenario to prevent flooding and for getting outside to enjoy. Glad the bulk of the rain stayed South and I think it looks fairly dry next week.

      Andy

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  55. Yes Andy another beautiful spring week ahead. Winter is done and like have said for two weeks we are getting rewarded for the brutal February with no March storms and an early spring

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    Replies
    1. Early spring is not the case on the lake shore. It only managed to get to 44 degrees yesterday for a whopping 15 minutes the rest of the day was spent near 40 with a chilly northeast wind. It can also no longer be an early spring we are in the middle of march that would just make it a normal spring. Either way two weeks from now it is going to be 80 where I am going to be, in central Florida. Goodbye muddy mess for one week anyway.

      Delete
    2. HP - You know this is the trade off for getting the lakes snows you do. Sometimes I drive up to the lake by Sea Breeze in April just to feel the 15+ degree difference. Often most of that difference is just the last mile or so. You can't brag about the extra lake flakes in Hamlin most of the winter and lament the cool March/April/May. Well. You can.

      Last year in mid April we had a couple of days in the Mid 80's. I went to Cayuga Lake in the finger lakes. It was 80 degrees on the ridge and 40 degrees with a stiff lake breeze a mile down the hill next to the lake. It's about a 400 foot elevation change. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess HP did not see 80s in his back yard that day.

      Delete
    3. Correct that. Not Mid 80's. Just looked it up. 82 degrees. April 13 & 14 2014.

      Delete
    4. Followed less than 24 hours later by temps in the 30s and some wet snowflakes. That was one of the wildest temperature swings I've experienced.

      Delete
    5. I actually like the cooler temperatures lakeside I am not complaining about them at all. I am very use to the lake breezes they are a blessing not a curse. My complaint lies more with the early spring bologna; which, is not the truth, not even close.

      Delete
    6. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 15, 2015 at 10:31 AM

      I have a picture of my snowmobiles at camp with a large thermometer placed on one of the front bumpers reading 82 F. There was still snow; I put 1.0 mile riding around the property where snow remained. And, yes, it was snowing a day later.

      Delete
    7. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 15, 2015 at 10:34 AM

      HP - I spent 20 years living on the lakeshore in Greece; and another 13 close to the lake in Sodus Point. The lake breezes are great in the summer; however, the downside is that is generally more humid by the lake, BUT, more sunny! That is the best part. The stable lake water temperature does not create much of a gradient between itself and the air above it; hence, limited cloud development. Inland, when there gets to be a large gradient between the land and air temps, you get more cloud formation.

      Delete
  56. All the models are showing no snow storms for the next 7-10 days. Spring is coming.

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    Replies
    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015031412/gfs_asnow_neus_41.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031412/gem_asnow_neus_40.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015031412/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_eus_2.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015031412/gem-ens_T2ma5d_eus_2.png

      Spring will have some remnants of winter to purge in the foreseeable future.

      Delete
  57. What are people's feelings on insulating a garage?

    We have a 2 car attatched garage. No living space above it. Sheetrock on the ceiling and the wall to the interior, but 3 uninsulated walls.

    It was consistently about 10 degrees warmer than outside. Garage door is uninsulated. Not sure about the ceiling.

    Our last house was had an insulated garage, but it had living space above it. That garage was awesome. Rarely below 30 degrees even on - mornings.

    Anyone have thoughts/experience on whether unsulating 3 walls and or replacing the garage door makes much of a difference?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The ceiling is most likely not insulated. It is fire code to have drywall on the ceiling and walls shared with the living space. It would not be a big deal to make an access panel and have insulation blown into the ceiling. I would forget insulating the walls unless you are also going to do the ceiling as well.

      Delete
    2. My garage is dry walled on all walls and ceiling. No insulation except wall that adjoins to the house. Even without jnsulation my garage never felt brutal this winter even with temps below zero. I have to imagine if you insulated and drywalled the three walls and added some to ceiling you would notice a huge difference. Insulated garage doors also make a big deal. I believe mine are. My parents garage is not insulated but has insulated 16' door. Some drywall but not all. Their door opener controller has a temp display on it and routinely says 40 something even in the cold winter.

      Delete
    3. Thanks. When the weather gets warmer and I have more time I'll cut out an access panel and take a look in the ceiling.

      Would be nice to be warm enough to melt snow on typically cold days.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 15, 2015 at 10:38 AM

      SSG - just a thought - keeping your salty and snowy cars in a, say, 35 degree garage compared to a 28 degree garage, creates a moist, potentially corrosive environment for your cars, concrete floor, etc.

      Delete
  58. CCCC my post said no snow storms showing. When I say that I mean at least 8 inches of snow.

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    Replies
    1. And I'm not denying it, just pointing out that we aren't getting the full spring treatment quite yet.

      Delete
  59. Thank-you CCCC for agreeing no snow storms are happening in the future.

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    Replies
    1. That's actually not at all what I was implying, especially since we haven't been able to draw confidence from 7-10 day model progs for a long time. But the models do indeed show a lack of *significant* systems, there's no getting around it. That doesn't mean a lack of activity though, and it certainly doesn't mean a storm can't crop up at some point.

      Delete
  60. I'm regretting shoveling off the deck and throwing it over the side all winter as I still have a 3 foot tall concrete glacier all around the perimeter.

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  61. I believe a week from today could get mighty interesting winter westher wise around here in ochester

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  62. There will be weather in Rochester in 7 days!!! Mark it Down!!

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  63. Chris now in PenfieldMarch 15, 2015 at 10:42 AM

    What an impressive snowpack we have - extremely compacted, dense, and DEEP. It has withstood the beating of the sun all week, and several days in the 40s.

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  64. This blog is dead which signals to me winter is dead. Models certainly show winter is dead. Hail spring which starts next Friday.

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  65. I want to hear the info that anon 1018 is basing his/her comment on.

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    Replies
    1. Based on the spelling I'm thinking he might have been reading it through a shot glass.

      SW

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  66. The information is based on the Canadian model. If that verified Fri/Sat could be interesting. However, it is not supported by the other models at this time. Hey you never know. KW said Tuesday morning commute could be impacted by a rain to snow change.

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    1. The Canadian is also the least accurate of the major models...so there's that.

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    2. KW is hardly ever right. Never listen to him.

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    3. I have several criticisms of KW, but his forecasting accuracy isn't one of them.

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    4. Ok, I got to ask...because I can't think of any other kind of criticism one would give to a meteorologist unless it's wardrobe related...what other criticisms do you have besides forecasting accuracy?

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    5. Is'nt KW vocally anti/dismissive of global warming?
      And open tea party supporter?
      Or am I mixing up local meteorologists?

      Btw. I'm glad the topic of climate change rarely comes up here. There's the rest of the internet to hash that out?

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    6. He's dismissive of global warming, which would be a fine opinion to have if he didn't regularly back it up with extremely dodgy sources. He also tends to jump the gun on potential future weather events and lets his apparent cold bias slip into his forecasts sometimes. He also tends to overestimate the effect of late season ice coverage on lake enhancement. But he's still a good forecaster and definitely doesn't hype anything. I think he actually predicted the lowest snowfall numbers for last year's blizzard, if I remember correctly.

      Climate change has become such a politically driven issue that it would almost be off topic to discuss it here. I'm pretty much convinced that nothing is going to be done about it until we run out of fossil fuels.

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    7. I generally pick my weather people by how much they hyperventilate about climate change and their politics. Anything left of the constitution and the channel gets changed ASAP.

      Let's not get silly in here please.

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  67. First day of Spring is Friday; but according to local weather folks Winter makes it return on Saturday/Sunday. As some have said, it is worth watching. What are others seeing as to the upcoming weekend's weather.

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  68. There is nothing to see for the weekend so not sure what you are talking about Anon 7:00?

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    1. Obviously you did not see any of the weather reports from this morning, which all called for temps in the 20's with scattered flakes. Was just wondering if folks were seeing the same on the charts and graphs they view. As RC said this morning, Saturday into Sunday time frame is one they are keeping an eye on for snow, but he did not indicate anything more than that. Plus Stacy talked about the cold returning for the later part of the week and probably into the next couple of weeks.

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  69. There is now nearly as much grass as there is snow cover where I am. The slow grind towards full blown not-dreary spring continues.

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    1. But HP aka Ford Tough said it would take until June for the snow pack to melt!!!

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  70. No snow the rest of the winter and beginning of spring. WINTER IS OVER! Hooray!

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    Replies
    1. Clearly you did not view the forecast for the remainder of the week and the scattered snow flakes which are expected. Hate to tell you, but if the temperature is in the teens and 20's that does not mean Winter is over. So do your research next time before you put such a statement out there.

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    2. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015031612/gfs_asnow_neus_41.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015031606/gfs_asnow_neus_41.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031612/gem_asnow_neus_40.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031600/gem_asnow_neus_40.png

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  71. This is from Don Paul:

    "No major storms are currently indicated in the next week for our vicinity. No one should assume we are through with measurable or even significant snow. It is simply too soon for such expectations, and with a colder than average pattern odds of a true snow drought lasting through most of the month are not all that favorable."

    ayy

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    1. Not all that favorable???!! There is nothing in the next 10 days which puts us at March 27th. Is he banking on a significant event the last 4 days of March? LOL. Don Paul is a goon. Sorry folks, but rest of March is absolutely NBD!!

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    2. Actually yea... have you seen some of the models for around the last weekend in March? Could become interesting, or could be rain. We won't know till it gets here.

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    3. Any precip will be in the form of RAIN!! Too Warm!! Sorry folks, but once again, NBD on this one!

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    4. Talking about the last weekend in March goes back to the hoping for something to happen that this blog experienced before February. Most models show the chance for something 2 weeks out. That something can be a rain storm to a snow storm. So it's not some novelty that two weeks out looks interesting. I'm not referring to CCCC. I'm referring to the model watchers that get excited about a couple weeks out.I'm seeing more projections that it will be in the 40s in a couple of weeks when this possibility could happen. In that case, the NBD train rider on here would be correct.

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  72. http://wivb.com/2014/01/16/don-paul/

    -Don is the only Buffalo Meteorologist to be awarded the Distinguished Scientist Award from, from the Western New York Science Congress. This award has previously been given to such luminaries as Nobel laureate Dr. Herbert Hauptmann, Buffalo Zoo Director Dr. Donna Fernandez and heart pacemaker inventor Wilson Greatbatch.Don is the only Buffalo broadcaster to win the Art Voice Readers poll as Buffalo’s Best Television Personality multiple times. In fact, Don has won the poll 3 times: in 2007, 2013, and 2014. Prior to this, when Art Voice still has a Buffalo’s Best Weathercaster poll, Don won that poll every year it was offered, from 2000-2005.
    -Holds American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for Television Weathercasting
    -Completed 3 year appointed term as Member, AMS Board of Broadcast Meteorology
    -Served on AMS committee to formulate a Policy Statement on the appropriate use of “live” nomenclature in broadcast display of weather radar
    -Full (professional) Member, AMS
    -In 2007, the Art Voice readers chose Don as their Favorite TV Personality in Buffalo overall.

    The GFS has depicted at least some snow for the second half of the month every run for the past several days. Also daily reminder that Sgt. Enbeedee gets off to me insulting him in the form of prose.

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    Replies
    1. You are waaaaaayyyy off. He's a now dead ex football player. Played for the LA Rams. http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-don-paul-20141122-story.html

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  73. More lies from the Pied Piper...

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    Replies
    1. ...well, ensembles USUALLY don't lie. Models lie all the time, but consistency is the key to truth.

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    2. ^ Two incredibly contradicting statements LOL
      "Models and ensembles don't lie"
      "Ensembles usually don't lie...Models lie all the time"

      WHAT A FOOL

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    3. Models showing the same thing over and over = much lower likelihood that they're fooling us. Hence "consistency is the key to truth." In this specific instance, the ensembles and CONSISTENT model outputs aren't lying. Nice try though...

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  74. There's a good chance of spotting the northern lights tonight, especially south of the Thruway under clearer skies and less light pollution.

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  75. Are we going to officially get over 100" this year? Man I hope so, but our chances for snow look dim right now. Just nothing out there right now. So quiet. We all know we are way over 100" though as the measurements taken at the airport are inaccurate at best, but that 96" is the official tally and will be written in the books.

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  76. We did have a slight dusting of snow this morning. So for those, and you know who you are, state on this Blog we are done with Winter and no more snow. Guess you were wrong -- as the weather will be colder and some snow is in the forecast. Hearing that folks might want to keep an eye on next weekend. Keep saying that Spring will be late in arriving, and it appears to be so.

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  77. Humm, what is that white fluffy stuff falling from the sky right now. Wait is it snow, I believe it is. Now explain that to us Anon 3/17 at 10:01, when you made the statement about any precipitation we will get would be in the form of rain. Wait can it be that NBD is wrong. I believe so!

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  78. Actually I think a dusting of snow is NBD unless I am mistaken

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    1. If you refer back to Anon 3/17 10:01 -- you professed that any precipitation would be in the form of rain, as it will be too warm for anything else. Was not reference to dusting of snow being no NBD, but your statement about we would only be seeing rain that that winter was OVER.

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  79. Nbd said rain. It's snowing, so nbd is a loser again just like his life.

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  80. There is nothing for us in the two weeks ahead in regards to any significant snowfall. Winter has ended and as I have said numerous times we are being rewarded for our brutal February with very little March snow. Thank-you Mother Nature.

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  81. Just need to begin to see some warm up of the temps; which looks like won't be anytime soon except for some hit and miss days of upper 40's to 50's. As I have said before Spring will be late in arriving.

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