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Thursday, March 19

Lots of Sun, Little "Weather" Ahead


Written by: Stacey Pensgen

This is all I have for you. Looks like our "most interesting" event in the next week. And not all that interesting, at all. After the winter we had (ok, maybe just February), it's only fitting that we end our final few hours of the cold season with some more snow. Only a little though. Like, a coating to maybe an inch. Fair weather generally wins out over the next 7 days with a lot of sun, but that pesky trough in the Northeast doesn't want to go anywhere. That means colder than normal air overall, likely into April. That doesn't mean we won't warm up at all. We will have a few days popping into the 40s and 50s, mostly ahead of storm systems with milder air drawn in just ahead of it. At this point, I don't see any 60s in the foreseeable future.

28 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update Stacey. The wind, sun and periodic modest warmth seems to have resulted in a best case scenario for the slow reduction in snow pack without creating flooding. Anyone else see the interesting appearance of the top of snow piles that looks like soap bubbles? The snow appears to be sublimating off the top.

    Andy

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  2. I now have almost no snowpack left. Just icy patches here and there. Looks to me like we have a decent chance of pushing our "official" airport seasonal snow number past 100 inches by early April (but let's be real here, we're already over 100 inches). Another positive aspect to the way our pack has melted is the fact that we aren't dealing with low soil moisture despite the dry pattern, because there was a lot of water locked up in the snow.

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    Replies
    1. Do you see over the next couple of weeks of us getting 5+ inches of snow? There have been some mention about next weekend, as it is something to watch -- but nothing more. What are you seeing or the charts showing. Know that it many days out, before anyone chimes in, but figured I'd ask what you might be seeing or reading.

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    2. A cold pattern and many, many consecutive model runs showing a non-negligible amount of snow during the next few weeks. I haven't really looked into any specific storm chances lately, been too wrapped up in other stuff.

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  3. I think think most Rochestarians are reasonably fine with winter. Jan Feb snow. No one bats an eye. Late march early April and places like DC, even parts of Pennsylvania our neighbor to the south are routinely 10, 15, occasionally 30+ degrees warmer. This is the time of year where people start to get bitter. Nothing like a 35 degree Easter. Or flurries while watching the masters.

    I wonder if Scot and Stacey avoid Wegmans this time of year. "Hey. Stacey. When is it going to get warm out."

    Stacey:"Depends. How far are you travelling?"

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  4. Sun is great with me. We need sun and dry weather for awhile.

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    Replies
    1. If you like the sun so much, why are you up at 2:14 in the morning?

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  5. Happy first day of Spring -- temps in the 20's with a chance of snow flurries - no accumulation though for our area. What more can we expect. Again, Spring will be late in arriving, and temps will be warming up VERY slowly have a feeling.

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    Replies
    1. I bet we go winter into summer.. like a switch goes off in mid April

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    2. I agree! I strongly believe we will jump into Hot and Dry around the end of April, early May time-frame. The seasons are merging! From now on, Rochester will only see two seasons. Winter and Summer!

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  6. First official day of spring, and big wet snowflakes are falling and accumulating to a very light patchy dusting so far. Something is very wrong with this picture...

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    Replies
    1. For those who love snow and don't want it to end. It brings a smile to their face.

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  7. Hey want happened to NBD. Didn't they say winter was over and no more snow. Swore there were these big white fluffy things falling from the sky today. Was it snow? Hummm!

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    Replies
    1. NBD is probably off destroying some other blog or forum claiming that Spring is NBD and winter is here to stay. 😉

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  8. NBD is probably pleasuring himself to the abuse he's taken every time he's shown up, since getting us to make fun of him seems to be his end goal. I kind of miss him actually, writing those diatribes about his daily stupidity would always put me in a good mood.

    It's just as the various ensembles told us a few weeks ago...winter is throwing a giant hissy fit as it gets dragged back to the arctic. I can see perhaps one more meaningful snow event around here before we truly wrap things up. And for the record, I still think spring arrived early last week.

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    Replies
    1. Little NBD is probably hiding in his little NBD cave.

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  9. Lake effect snow tonight and tomorrow AM apparently? There is advisory for Monroe, Wayne And Ontario counties.

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  10. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/NE_Snow.png

    Also:

    https://twitter.com/JonDossROC/status/579287723871207426

    >grease athens

    GREASE ATHENS

    GREASE

    ATHENS

    http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/550/009/39a.gif

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  11. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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    Replies
    1. It's lake snow. No way that whole group will be getting those type of snow totals. Maybe an area or two but that's way overblown. I would rather them be safe than sorry though because if caught in that band it wouldn't be fun to deal with.

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  12. Lake Effect Snow Advisory -- what happened to all those who said that winter was done and order -- only precipitation would be in the form of rain. Wonder what they will be saying when they see what white, fluffy stuff on the ground and car come Sunday morning. Winter is not done with us yet, and is far from other. Spring will be late in arriving, as 40-50's temps here and there do not count for "Oh it is Spring!".

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  13. KW has told local slow plows to be on alert for winter event with significant snow totals. Said that this late into March is could be a rare occurrence and that winter is definitely NOT done yet. So for those we keep saying Spring is around the corner, it is a very long hallway you are looking down at. Warm temps won't be coming any time soon in looking at future forecasts -- come on 50's for one day is not Spring. NBD where are you -- would love to hear what you have to say....

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    Replies
    1. Why do you keep going by what KW says? The guy is the king of hype. If I cared what he was saying I wouldn't be on the weather blog for news 8 who get the forecast right way more than the hype master on channel 10.

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    2. Local plows are ready for winter long before and long after KW thinks it is coming or gone.

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  14. We'll just have to agree to disagree about whether spring has arrived or not, since apparently it's entirely subjective. I will say that temperatures have been running solidly above average on the whole since the first 7 days of the month, and highs in the 40s and 50s have outnumbered highs in the 30s during that stretch as well. Plus I'm pretty sure I can see some buds beginning to form on the trees, and there's basically no snow cover left across much of the region. But if that doesn't constitute a springlike environment to you then so be it.

    KW didn't say to watch for a significant snow event, he said to watch for a "marginal" snow event and pointed out that it's tough to get significant amounts on pavement this time of year.

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  15. Replies
    1. Yeah she ain't fooling around. Highly amplified in Phase 8, perhaps the primary driver behind the inbound colder pattern.

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  16. What are the projected temperatures next weekend?

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