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Saturday, March 28

ACTIVE PATTERN AHEAD


The incredibly persistent pattern that we've seen over the past few months of a massive ridge in the west and a trough in the east will start to undergo some changes over the next week. A more zonal, or west to east flow, will try and establish itself across the country.

As this happens, milder Pacific air will overspread the northeast with temperatures much closer to where they should be this time of year. This same pattern will be active with several fast moving storm systems that will impact the northeast.

Each system will bring some rain and snow showers along with gusty winds but temperatures won't be overly cold thanks to that milder Pacific air that will be in place. Highs through early next week will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s, still slightly below average for this time of year.

A much stronger surge of warmer air will arrive during the second half of next week as a strong low pressure system develops to our west.



Temperatures by Thursday will warm well into the 50s and some forecast models show readings soaring into the 60s!

Beyond this time, the forecast gets very uncertain with lots of disagreement in the various forecast models. Some show a major storm moving up the the coast bringing cold air and snow while others move this storm well to our west bringing another surge of warm air. Time will tell!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones 











84 comments:

  1. There will be blizzard in The Flower City within a week.Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  2. Hey where have you been all winter -- so now you begin to predict a blizzard? What gives?

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  3. Timing my man timing.

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  4. Well forget it mark it down. Models have a weak storm and well to our south. It is April tone down winter is over.

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  5. "5 day model progs are always completely accurate." -No One Ever

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  6. Anyone know what the 12z Euro showed?

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  7. The Euro and all the models show NBD so relax and enjoy Easter.

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  8. JN on the news at 6 said nothing Saturday and flurries on Easter. He has thrown in the towel.He went from last night all indications are a storm next weekend to nothing tonight

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  9. RC stated this morning that the weekend does bear watching. So models must have changed.

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  10. Not true anon 7:14 so not sure why you are just making things up. RC said nothing on his forecast this morning about the weekend other that 40 on Easter. Please do not just make up things.

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  11. Well 12z GFS says there is still a storm possible with 3-6 inches for our area that is what I see.

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  12. Not sure what you are seeing. The 12Z GFS shows a weak system passing well to our South.

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    Replies
    1. eh?

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015033012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015033012/gfs_asnow_us_21.png

      Delete
  13. I am throwing in the towel. There will be NO blizzard in The Flower City. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  14. Late week still looks interesting...perhaps rain to accumulating wet snow.

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  15. Also I love how a single forecaster's word on a 5 day prog is somehow gospel when they say what you want to hear...

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  16. This really has nothing to do with weather, but I posted a video on Youtube of how to remove Yellowjackets using a shop vac. Mostly it's satisfying to watch them get sucked up. Yesterday it got posted on reddit and someecards, and I got 86,000 views. Yesterday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytMcIpIRL3w (or click my name)

    Btw. Thursday could (*Should*) be our first day over 60 degrees since November 30th. That would be 123 days or 33.7% of a year.

    Of course, it could just be an April Fools prank.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I plan on deliberately obtaining a wasp infestation just so I can do this. Also congrats on your newly found internet fame.

      Delete
  17. Any updates about weekend? Looks to me like the Euro still has a strong storm?

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    Replies
    1. Possible rain to snow. Still pretty early, but all three major models now have a strong storm.

      Delete
  18. Well well...

    "THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

    A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

    THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY TUNED.

    AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    Not sure I would use such strong wording, but it does highlight the potential for an accumulating snowfall late this week.

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  19. Maybe there will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 5 days. Mark it down somewhat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  20. Several weeks ago I opined about this possibility. Just seemed fitting that we get one last solid kick in the crotchal area before winter leaves for good.

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  21. The GFS gives us a snowstorm but it is a quick mover so should not be that bad.

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  22. They have been known to slow down and have a smoke Snowdog. This could be historic.

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  23. Quick check of the records: April 4 1990 10.4" is the Rochester record. Yeah a snowstorm would suck at this point, I think even the diehards are ready for warm weather, but lets at least have some fun with it and start laying down odds we match or beat the snowfall record. I'll start with a total amateur shot in the dark, with the current set up I give it 30 to 1 we get 10.4" or more, can be anywhere in the area reported by someone on this blog during the 24 hour period.

    SW

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    Replies
    1. Apparently I was off a bit. That's what happens when you guess.
      I wonder what the NWS defines as a "memorable snowfall"?

      SW

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    2. Probably 6+ inches, which is very substantial for early April.

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    3. Chris now in PenfieldApril 1, 2015 at 6:53 PM

      I remember that storm. I was 14 years old. I also remember the year after…or was it 1992…when it got into the 90s in early April.

      Delete
  24. The worst case scenario is that we get a heavy wet pasting that brings down tree limbs and power lines. But as I've already implied I don't see that as an outcome worth losing sleep over. More likely is that we get a period of heavy rain over to a few inches of slush.

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  25. 10,000:1 and I am being honest

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  26. I agree with CCC. I do not see this being memorable or historic. Rain followed by a few inches of snow

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  27. I mean, it could be memorable in the sense that we don't usually get a grass-covering snowfall in April...

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  28. Scott on forecast says Nbd Saturday as did KW. So it will be Ned not sure why Ned in buffalo put out that whacky posT CCCC posted. They were usually late to the party all wintering they a possible blockbuster storm post out.

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  29. Sorry suppose to be NBD and then NWS.

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  30. I'd just like to say a couple of days ago I had posted that RC stated that this weekend is something worth watching, and several people on this blog jumped all over me for the post. Have to say to get snow in April is something worth watching. So to Anon 3/30 8:48m, what are you saying now. Don't think we will hit 40 and sunny for the weekend, let along Easter. But then again, you probably will be on and tell me that I am making this up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WHEC = the hype train of Rochester weather. They say everything is worth watching. Every once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut.

      Delete
  31. Anon 7;09 as I said a couple of days ago RC never said that and he did not. Maybe you think getting an inch of snow in April it is something worth watching. I do not it is NBD sostop trying to make it into a big deal. Thank you.

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  32. This is how you forecast ROC weather....LOOK OUT THE WINDOW......

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  33. Looks like the models have converged upon a quintuple-phased megahuge ultrablizzard for Friday night. Amounts on the order of 10-15 feet appear likely, with gusts upwards of 400 mph and a storm surge approaching the Thruway. Possible mixing issues across the southern tier. Also I'm quitting the blog forever to join ISIS and write erotic Sailor Moon fanfiction.

    #biebdream2015

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I take it you are joking.

      Delete
    2. Completely serious. Today is a serious day for serious posts.

      Delete
  34. Models backing off of precipitation amounts this will be a little rain and NBD.

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  35. No snow all rain all weekend.

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  36. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2015040200f072.gif
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015040118/gfs_asnow_neus_16.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040112/gem_asnow_neus_16.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015040118/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

    You crack me up anon...

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  37. Okay CCCC you got me a slushy inch.

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  38. Winter storm watches will go up later tomorrow. There is a potential of 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow for Western NY. Keep an eye on it.

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    Replies
    1. No way are we gonna get 4-8. No talk from JN or KW the last 2 days. The NWS states nothing much about snow.

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    2. Okay Snowdog

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    3. If that is the case, I have family driving in from Philly. Thanks for the heads up, as I'll reach out to them about the weather, so they can make a decision about coming for Easter. Appreciate it.

      Delete
  39. NCEP College Park Maryland

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  40. Models show nothing now for weekend but rain and that is good for the Easter Bunny.

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  41. Heard Matt last night say that this weekend right now doesn't appear to be that big of a deal. The NBD guy might have this one right aside of the little bit of slush we might get.

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    Replies
    1. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

      Delete
  42. JN just posted on Twitter the NCEP WPC 72-Hour Snowfall Map thru Sun 00Z05Apr, and it's showing 3 inches for metro, 4-5 south.

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  43. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2015040212f054.gif
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015040212/gfs_asnow_neus_11.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015040200/gem_asnow_neus_12.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015040212/namconus_asnow_neus_21.png

    Denial is a fool's paradise...

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  44. Today is reminding me of what pleasant temperatures feel like.

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  45. I can not look all those up. What are we looking at CCCC for Saturday because I have to travel west for Easter.

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    Replies
    1. WPC has 2-4 inches. NWS has 1-2. I'll call a compromise at around 2 inches.

      Delete
  46. Not a lot of snow maybe an inch in city and a bit more in the higher elevations.

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  47. BTW, any snow we do get should be largely over with by sunrise on Saturday.

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  48. Great to get outside today and do some yard work. What a beautiful day. Never expected it to get in the 70's.

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    Replies
    1. For those of us, who had to work. It is nice to see what other got to enjoy the warmth and sun. Now why can't it be the same on the weekends?

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  49. Looks like we might receive a double dose of snow in the coming days. That's kind of a shame considering today and yesterday.

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    Replies
    1. That's why spring sucks.

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    2. For those who have not wanted winter to come to an end and enjoy the snow. They will be doing a happy dance.

      Delete
  50. Yeah a double dose for a grand total of an inch of snow.

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  51. WELL, WELL, WELL.............
    LOOKS LIKE I WAS RIGHT FOLKS!!!
    YOU ALL LAUGHED AS I SAID NBD, NBD, NBD FOR EASTER!!
    TOO WARM!! ALL RAIN!! SORRY FOLKS, BUT THIS ONE IS NBD LIKE I SAID!!!
    EAT CROW WANNABE AMATEURS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    NBD BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You should quit your sitting in moms basement career and become a weather guy.

      Delete
    2. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2015040400f024.gif

      http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

      "THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE OVER TO ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. WHILE THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC AND JET INDUCED LIFT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE WITHIN A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF WET SNOW DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. PENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN GRASSY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S."

      Putting your tired old bit in all caps and wording it angrily will not help cure you of your pony problem.

      Delete
  52. please visit my wap kingmusik thankyou bro :-D

    ReplyDelete
  53. I will say that recent model runs have taken the snow amounts down quite a bit. I think they're overcompensating for the warmer ground temps induced by our recent warmth, since neither the modeled 850 temps nor modeled 2m temps have shifted in any meaningful way. The SREF mean has been painting amounts of 2-4 inches for the past 4 runs, but I think that's a tad high. I'll go with 1-3 inches of spring blueball inducing slush.

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  54. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gis/images/NE_Snow.png

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  55. Spring is here and NBD was right on the money. I have to give credit where credit is due. He is now Rochester's Most Accurate spring forecaster.

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  56. Looks to me like the precip ended way earlier than expected, before we got cold enough for snow, so we were limited to a brief snow shower this morning. Still looking at possibly another minor snowfall for late Sunday night, but it's going to be extremely marginal.

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  57. Have to say that enjoying the sun, just wish the temps were a little higher. Hopefully we will have sunny weather for Easter.

    ReplyDelete

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