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Saturday, May 16

STORMS HERALD CHILLY AIR

After our brutal winter, we've really turned a corner so far in May with several bouts of truly Summer-like air. We've already seen a few days in the 90s and some humidity to go along with the heat. 


Summer warmth and humidity will return to western New York in the next few days as high pressure sets up over the Mid-Atlantic and a strong cold front approaches from the west. The southerly flow in between these two features will pump lots of warmth and moisture in from the south with highs by Monday soaring well into the 80s. 

With more moisture and warmer temperatures, our instability will increase and so will the chance of thunderstorms as we kick off the work week. As a strong cold front approaches from the west Monday afternoon and evening, some of these storms could turn a bit frisky producing very heavy rain and strong winds. 



Once this front moves through, a significantly cooler and drier airmass will arrive from Canada with highs falling well below the seasonal average. In fact by Wednesday, temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 50s and combine some wind and it will feel downright chilly! 



Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones




124 comments:

  1. Any concerns for frost later this week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Winter storm warnings will probably be up by mid week. Easily a couple inches on the ground by Friday!

      Delete
    2. Hey what happened to the winter storm Anon 5/18 12:29pm predicted previously. Oh no...can it be...yes it is...you were wrong!

      Delete
  2. I was in the Adirondacks this past weekend to do some hiking, and much to the surprise and chagrin of me and my group there was still some rapidly melting snow along the route we took. Not just tiny smatterings either, some of the patches were several inches deep. Speaks volumes about the sort of winter we had. Some of it was condensed and very slippery, so the going was really sketchy at times especially on the steeper sections. And there were A LOT of steeper sections, especially on the Boundary Trail which we took up to Boundary and Algonquin Peaks. Found out later that we had gone up the steepest trail in the whole park. Also learned that miracles really do exist, since that's the only possible explanation for how any of us could walk afterward.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I can only hope the remainder of summer continues like this. I can handle long stretches of dry and cool air punctuated by a few days of sauna. It's endless days of heat and humidity that makes me not like summer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same here. Toss a few severe outbreaks in there too.

      Delete
  4. Ugh...Smells like FRANK-FOOTERS in here!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. In regards to the cool down this week, any precipitation will be falling in the form of RAIN!! That's right, TOO WARM! ALL RAIN! All this talk of a Winter Storm is blatant Tomfoolery! All RAIN that will absolutely be NBD!!!!
    Cannot believe some of you buffoons still think Winter is not over yet.
    Sorry folks, NBD on this one!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The hurricane coming straight for us is not NBD!!! Check out the weather patterns for June 4th. Hurricane totally coming our way.

      Delete
  6. Your hurricanes and blizzards will be quickly forgotten once that supernova hits on July 7th. Get your sunscreen ready just saying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought the projection a month out had a black hole swallowing up the Earth?!?!

      Delete
  7. Smells like Frank-Footers in here

    ReplyDelete
  8. F
    R
    A
    N
    K
    -
    F
    O
    O
    T
    E
    R
    S

    W
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O
    O

    FRANK-FOOTERS UP IN HERE!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon, stop trying to make "frank-footers" happen. It's not going to happen.

      Delete
    2. Agreed, frank-footers isn't happening nearly as much as next week's winter storm!

      Delete
  9. Looks our nice weather will continue with just a brief pause for the balance of today (tuesday) and a bit cool on Weds. Really looks nice for the holiday weekend! Waaay better than Florida where it's going to be an oppressive 90 something with stifling humidity, strong thunderstorms and gusty winds. We are definitely going to have the better picnic weather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully Frank-Footers are on the menu!

      Delete
  10. Holy Frank-Footers Batman!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Knock, Knock.....







    Who's there?






    It's Frank....






    Frank who????









    FRANK-FOOTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Like seriously what is "frank-footer" even supposed to mean? What's the joke here? Am I stupid or is anon just trying to be obnoxious again? If it's neither of those then here's a protip: forced memes are never funny.

    On a side note, our friendly neighborhood atmosphere really needs to figure out what season it wants to be.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How do you not know what a FRANK-FOOTER is?!
      Seriously?!.....
      Wow...............

      Delete
    2. I might need you to spam it 500 more times before I figure it out.

      Delete
    3. You won't find a frank-footer on any menu, unless you eat stuffed toys. It's a plush hotdog. You can caress and cuddle it, in lieu of a real woman. Sorry Mr. FRANK-FOOTER, mothers don't count.

      Delete
  13. SMELLS LIKE FRANK-FOOTERS IN HERE!!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Not to spoil the beautiful memorial day weekend weather, BUT.....Has anyone looked ahead at the pattern shift in about 14 more days??? Let's just say the last Frost will likely now be extended into June :( And dare I say it.....frozen precip?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Smells like FROZEN Frank-Footers in here!!!!!!

      Delete
  15. Pay no attention to the frost troll posting at 9:00am

    ReplyDelete
  16. Not certain but I'm pretty sure the Blue Angels flew right over my head on my way home for lunch. They have a day off between performances in Maryland so maybe they swung by for a practice run or a flyover? IDK but it was pretty neat regardless.

    We ARE going to have a frost threat Friday night, but that will be the last for a long while as we warm up again through the start of June.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are practicing today and tomorrow before the airshow this weekend. Buzzed us a couple times at MCC.

      Delete
    2. Same thing happened at my work. Couldn't get out to see them unfortunately but one of my friends who works outdoors said they were doing barrel rolls and crossovers.

      Delete
  17. I think Franklin Footer is taking the Chinese Water Torture approach to trolling, attempting to drive us insane by repeatedly drip-dropping the same unfunny joke on our metaphorical foreheads day after day.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Dear atmosphere, pls stop cycling between three different seasons every few days, kthxbai.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Smells like frank-footers in here

    ReplyDelete
  20. Well well...Long range models continue to show a MAJOR rise in temperatures for the NE towards the middle of June. It's common to have some 90's in June here and there, but this is looking more like it could be a triple digit heat wave...In June no less!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1392/66/1392660096546.jpg

      Delete
    2. Prolly see Red Flag Warnings issued along with Heat Advisories

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    3. *drip drip drip*

      https://jenniferann1970.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/water-torture.jpg

      Delete
    4. At least he can roast his frank-footers!

      Delete
    5. You both need to roast some more creative material.

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    6. That weather would remind me of a time in the late 70's. A brutal winter and the following summer a heatwave that wilted brick. I recall being at Fort Ticonderoga and the heat being so oppressive it hurt to move.

      Delete
    7. I would very much love for that to not happen.

      Delete
  21. Does anyone want to visit the newly formed lake in southeast Texas? I believe it used to be called "Houston."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can I bring a floating Frank-Footer?

      Delete
  22. Why don't the NWS have western NY in a moderate drought. Buffalo is 4-5 inches below normal and Rochester is 2-3" below normal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Perhaps if you continue to cry yourself a river over it, they'll be back up at normal levels!

      Delete
    2. Yeaa...smells like fat cry-babies in here

      Delete
    3. Some real winners in these replies...

      I'll answer the question Snowdog: it's because the drought index is based around statistical abnormality and not the absolute rainfall deficit. Our deficit isn't an atypical enough occurrence to be classified as a moderate drought...yet.

      Delete
  23. Here's some potentially good news from the NWS discussion regarding a weekend frontal passage:

    "HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME."

    This is on top of any localized downpours that might occur ahead of the front.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. prolonged rain on the weekend is never good news and I don't care how much we need it.

      Delete
    2. Some things are more important than your weekend plans. You'll get over it.

      Delete
    3. Soggy frank-footers?

      Delete
    4. I don't think things are that dry that we need a wet weekend. Not that we can control it :)

      Delete
    5. Problem is that if we miss out on that window of opportunity then the dryness has a high likelihood of worsening significantly. Thankfully we managed to dent the deficit last night, which personally I didn't anticipate. It's not like the whole weekend will be a washout anyway, most of the rain should occur late Saturday afternoon into the overnight.

      Delete
  24. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=buf&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning

    ReplyDelete
  25. Wreaks of Frank-Footers in here!!

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hey cccc wondering what your thoughts are for the timing of the rain tomorrow. We're having a big outdoor bday party for my 3 year old, we already bumped the start time back to 11am hoping to wrap things up before the rain hits in Clarendon. Sounds like from your above comments we might be ok. Picture 21 kids under the age of ten stuffed into your living room and that's the alternative - Thanks.

    SW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chances increase starting around 6pm, becoming categorical (80% or higher) by around 8 or so. Lake Erie's shadow will reduce the chance of scattered pop-up storms ahead of the front. The exact timing is still foggy so those times I mentioned may end up shifting a bit.

      I don't envy the prospect of having to be near that many small children.

      Delete
  27. We might not tickle 60 on Sunday after nearing 90 on Saturday, then we're going to head right back to the upper 80s again by late next week. The mood swings continue.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Storms are beginning to flare up and train along Lake Erie's breeze boundary. SW, you still look safe in Holley as you're underneath the shadow, and if anything the steadier activity now looks to hold off much longer than originally thought. Same with anyone NW of the city.

    HOWEVER, Sunday doesn't look quite so dry anymore...

    ReplyDelete
  29. Mostly great weather continues. But what's up with these whacked out temps for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday? Crazy swing for sure... almost like that miserable February air doesn't want to go away. At least take solace that starting next Weds we're in for another decent run of nice weather.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Not a drop of rain all day, still sunny here. Cccc any way you could explain in lay terms how the whole shadow thing works with lake Erie? Seems the opposite in cold temps when the lake generates moisture...

    SW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's because the opposite effect is occurring. The shadow forms because the lake cools the surface layer and reduces the temperature difference between the surface and aloft. That difference is what's being referred to when the term instability is brought up. In such an environment pockets of less dense warm air rise up into the more dense cold air, displacing some of the cold air downward in the process known as convection. If the warm air is sufficiently moist then condensation will occur as the air cools, forming a cumulus cloud. Rinse and repeat over time, the cloud grows larger and you eventually have a thunderstorm. However, in a lake shadowed environment where the amount of instability is reduced this process is greatly inhibited, and the degree of convection is too low to create a thunderstorm. Compare to the winter months, when the lake warms the surface layer to increase instability and promote stronger convection.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldMay 30, 2015 at 8:55 PM

      Well explained...

      Delete
  31. Had over an inch of rain in Gananda already. All rainfall deficits will be erased by the end of this storm.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Thanks cccc. 24 hours later and the "lake shadow" is certainly a thing of the past.

    SW

    ReplyDelete
  33. It's almost the first day of meteorological summer

    and we have an actual wind chill factor going

    an effing wind chill

    and it's almost june effing 1st

    http://i.imgur.com/3RNCeqi.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  34. We were in the upper 40's all day yesterday. (technically a high of 66, but really.)
    200 miles to the south of us was in the mid to upper 80s.

    That's impressive. As was the entire cup of water on my deck. I'd guess approaching 3 inches of water, but I don't know what the official number is.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Both KROC and KBUF set new daily rainfall records yesterday, with 1.64 inches and 2.44 inches respectively. That includes KBUF experiencing 25 consecutive hours of measurable rainfall. We won't be hearing about abnormal dryness again for awhile, even though the balance of this week will see a return to warmth and sun.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Weather jokes require humor with abnormal dryness.

      Delete
    2. My frank-footers got all wet :(

      Delete
    3. Then we clearly do not share the same sense of humor.

      Delete
  36. GUESS WHAT?!

    Still smells like FRANK-FOOTERS in here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...........

    ReplyDelete
  38. Why nothing but Radio Silence from NEWS8??????
    We have not had an update since May 16th!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How come all you do is cry? No, seriously?

      Delete
    2. Sick of the smell of frank-footers would be my assumption.

      Delete
    3. They did this last year too, and Scott said it's because of the much lower blog traffic during the warm months.

      Delete
    4. CCCC is correct. Unless there is a concern with a storm or weather event; the postings from 8 will be minimal until the Fall season - then the posting become more frequent.

      Delete
  39. The East Pacific has already seen two major hurricanes, the earliest that such a thing has ever occurred. And if Blanca reaches the intensity it's forecasted to achieve then it will be the strongest storm on record in that basin for this early in the season.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/031444.shtml?

    ReplyDelete
  40. I thought News 8 was the most accurate forecast? Was supposed to be mostly clear today...and I just looked outside and it looks gloomy. On the weather page it says, mostly cloudy and on other parts it says mostly clear....bottom line...I am irritated that I even took a half day today because I thought it would be nicer....why do we have weatherman? why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because the other option is to be unprepared when a snowstorm or arctic outbreak arrives, since there wouldn't be any forecasters around to warn us ahead of time?
      Because "most accurate" doesn't mean "always right?"
      Because it's still rather pleasant outside today despite the clouds?

      Just try to enjoy what you've been given.

      Delete
    2. I think they should be paid on performance!!!

      Delete
    3. But seriously, how are they evaluated? It must be nice to get paid whether you're right or wrong!

      Delete
    4. Everyone screws up at their job occasionally.

      Delete
    5. But how many screw-ups till you're warned or reprimanded? I just feel weathermen get a free pass.. Should be paid on their accuracy, like commission... Nothing personal, I love the News8 team, I'm just saying the career in general

      Delete
    6. I don't know what the exact standard is, but for TV meteorologists I would imagine it comes down to the effect they have on the station's ratings. The "Rochester's Most Accurate" label probably helps News 8 quite a bit in that regard, because most people want to lean on the most reliable forecasting team available. So I would say that a TV forecaster's accuracy does play an indirect (but still very important) role in their pay and job status. There's a concerning element to that approach though: what if a forecaster is so off-the-wall horrendous that people tune in just to see what fresh nonsense they spew? Now you've got someone being rewarded for sucking, since they're driving the station's ratings up by being hilariously incompetent. Fortunately I haven't seen that scenario play out on TV in any *major* way, but I suspect that Accuweather has that kind of relationship with Henry Margusity. I know for a fact that many people follow his blog just to see him fail, which is not only quite sad but also creates more traffic for Accuweather's site. Or maybe he's been doing "special favors" for the higher-ups in that company for years...who really knows for sure?

      Forecasters who don't work for the media don't have the "ratings" luxury, so their job status hinges directly upon their accuracy.

      Delete
  41. Well....maybe they should just forecast during the winter months then....I am just going to look outside each day and go from there.....LOL

    ReplyDelete
  42. Trying to apply "accountability" to weather forecasting with the bar at 100% is silly.

    Are Vegas odds makers or professional betters expected to be right 100% or even 80% of the time?
    Investors? Do they get every trend right?

    Predicting such complicated phenomena is an endeavor of perfection.

    They are all a combination of math, experience, and intuition where the goal is to get it right more than the other guy.

    But no one is perfect. Or even close. Scoring an individual forecast is only one data point. What matters is the aggregate reliability of the predictions. Did they get it more right than wrong more of the time than other people.

    In all of them it also matters how you are wrong. A cloudy day that was forecasted to be sunny isn't the end of the world. Failure to predict a large ice storm is a bigger deal. Just like failure to pick an up and coming stock early isn't as big of a deal as going all in on a stock right before it crashes.



    ReplyDelete
  43. DJD, you really find something to complain about everything it seems. Sure Thursday wasn't as sunny as originally predicted, but it was still an outstanding day to be outside. Comfortable temps with no wind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't recall him being a complainer, or even an active poster for that matter.

      Delete
    2. Ha! Thanks CCCC....It's just an opinion.....half the time I am just being silly....you guys can get really defensive.....;)

      Delete
    3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law

      Delete
  44. This rain is getting ridiculous again. Looks like more heavy rain on Sunday night and Monday. Frost advisories out in the Adirondacks. This is June!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's normal for us to receive rainfall nearly every other day in June.
      It's also normal for the Adirondacks to have their last frost in early June.
      There is literally nothing ridiculous about the current pattern, it's about as close to a typical early June stretch as we can reasonably expect.

      Delete
  45. So I heard it was a pretty crazy day south of the Thruway today...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Frank-footer spill?

      Delete
  46. It sure was.....Wegman's has NO bread or milk left! None, Nadda, Zilch!

    edit* They still have soy milk, but who drinks that anyway

    ReplyDelete
  47. OMG. RAIN RAIN GO AWAY.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Michele in PenfieldJune 9, 2015 at 5:21 PM

    Curious as to why we are getting all these waves of moisture. What kind of jet stream pattern is creating this or is this an El Nino effect? I am a weather novice and any info, would greatly be appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. El Nino might be juicing the subtropical jet, but the main reason we've been getting waves of moisture is probably tied more closely to the fact that the jet stream is forming a shallow trough in our region. I can't find any major driving force behind it, may have something to do with the PNA being somewhat positive. Summertime teleconnection climatology isn't something I'm terribly familiar with.

      Delete
    2. Michele in PenfieldJune 9, 2015 at 10:18 PM

      Thanks CCCC!

      Delete
  49. Tomorrow could become a bit hairy:

    "WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL HELP QUICKLY BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY MIDDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR FORECAST AT 40-50 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM FIRING BEFORE MAXIMUM SEVERE INDICIES DEVELOP. SOME STORMS WILL THEN BE TRIGGERED ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UNTIL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FROM BUFKIT ARE MAINLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WHICH SUGGESTS A STORM MODE OF MULTICELL LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING OF THE WINDS MAY LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO SHOULD ANY NOTCHES DEVELOP WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINES."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    ReplyDelete
  50. Right in the sweet spot of SPC's slight risk area:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1433899742294

    ReplyDelete
  51. Anyone check out the massive line of storms heading for us. Looks so far to be further north than expected so it would get Rochester but not the Finger Lakes if it keeps the current path.

    ReplyDelete
  52. They are here. If you want up to date weather reports, check out 8's weather folks tweets. They usually don't post to the blog during summer months.

    ReplyDelete
  53. That afternoon activity was a bit unexpected. Round 2 is approaching from the NW and should arrive later this evening. I doubt it'll be as nasty as it looks right now though.

    ReplyDelete
  54. And there's the lakes working together to whittle those storms away. I feel like most of us will dodge this second wave of activity, and the highlight of the day will have been the storms from earlier.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Oh yeah, definitely screwed the pooch here. Those storms flared up out of nowhere so I decided to do a little chasing. Probably the craziest adventure I've had in awhile. Some of the details I observed:

    -The wind and rain were so ferocious that I could barely see the road at times.
    -Tree limbs are strewn across the streets in a number of areas. Some of them are rather sizable.
    -Power is out in the area of Jefferson Road and East Henrietta Road. There's some pretty significant ponding near there as well.
    -Some sort of smoke or steam was rising up out of the reeds in front of the Tilted Kilt near 390. Don't quite know what might've been causing it.
    -This blog can safely dismiss any future calls I make on severe outbreaks -_-

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Go home till Winter CCCC. Your analysis could not have been MORE WRONG

      Delete
    2. I knew some bloodthirsty anon was going to leap at my throat after I made that comment. For the record, all I did to make that assessment was examine the radar trends, which is far less involved than what I usually do during the winter and an admittedly unwise thing to do in general.

      Delete
  56. That was bananas .. storms don't seem to flare up like that after dark very often. Or do they?

    ReplyDelete
  57. And it appears from many of the models that we are in for several more rounds of wet weather. Possibly taking us right into July.

    ReplyDelete

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