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Thursday, June 11

Nasty Late Spring Storms, Possible Tornado

The severe storms that rolled through western New York Wednesday night produced dozens of reports of wind damage, and MAY have spawned a tornado. Storm relative velocity did indeed indicate some rotation within the storm. A tornado warning was posted for Ontario county, while the storm originated in southern Monroe county and showed rotation starting just south and west of Rochester. So, was it a tornado that caused the widespread damage? We don't know...yet. The NWS Buffalo is heading out this morning to survey the damage, looking at the damage pattern to see whether it was a tornado, or straight line winds. Tornadoes aren't common in WNY, but they aren't unheard of. Remember when a tornado hit Hilton? And another one Corfu back in 2009? We should know more later today from the weather service regarding Wednesday's storms. 

111 comments:

  1. 26 days later and finally a new post! Thank you News8!

    ...and holy cow, can't believe we had an actual tornado rip through WNY!
    anyone know what category the tornado was???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Confirmed EF0. So it was basically a baby tornado.

      Delete
  2. I wonder if our friendly neighborhood Farmington bro has any damage to his property, since the tornado apparently cut right through the town. The traffic signals around Jefferson Road and East Henrietta Road are still out, but crews are working on repairing them. Two of the signals are completely gone and there are tree limbs still strewn about. We're already near our June precipitation average with the active pattern set to continue.

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  3. The GFS has this"active" pattern continuing right into the first part of July.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You must be the only person in the world with access to the elusive 20 day GFS.

      Delete
  4. Shall we do the same song and dance tomorrow evening? The experts say:

    "A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED FASTER AND NORTH ITS TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT IT WILL ALSO PLACE OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ON FRIDAY EVENING 12Z NAM/GFS FORECAST WIND FIELDS AVERAGE ABOUT 40 KTS AT 850MB WITH SOME SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

    IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING CONVECTION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ALSO A TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE CONVECTION TO TRACK TO THE RIGHT TOWARD WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. IF THIS HAPPENS...THIS WOULD LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

    BASED ON THIS WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING IN THE HWO. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP FROM N-S BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    The new convective outlook from the SPC looks a bit like yesterday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1434060812910

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is getting ridiculous. We are water logged. Is this the way this summer will be. Rain all the time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Odds are that we will not experience 3 straight months of the same exact pattern.

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  6. Tornado Watch issued?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yup - through 10pm tonight it looks

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  7. where do you see that? I see a flood watch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Look harder...Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Tornado Watch nimrod

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    2. There was only a Flood Watch at the time of that comment. Think before you make yourself look foolish.

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  8. Anon is being le master trole again. It takes about 5 seconds to check any weather site and see that there is no tornado watch in effect. There is still a slight severe threat though.

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  9. Wait we are in a Tornado Watch this evening?? Is my commute home from work going to be bad? Please tell me if I need to be leaving early please and thank you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would advise to get home before 5, that's when it's supposed to get REALLY bad

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    2. Great, thank you for the heads up, hope my boss lets me leave. Telling him about the tornado warning. Hate this weather

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  10. Dime sized hail coming down in Mumford right now, looks crazy

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  11. Tornado Watch now extended till 11PM tonight!!!

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  12. I only managed to receive a brief downpour this afternoon, most of the real fun was south of the Thruway. However, there's a rather nasty accident scene near the Calkins Road Wegmans where there is yet another traffic light outage. The worst appears to be over for the bulk of our region, as the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. Ontario and Livingston Counties have been removed from the tornado watch as well.

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  13. So are there any signs of this wet weather pattern breaking down anytime soon. Seems like we are getting an inch of rain every other day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At the very least it doesn't look like we'll be entering an abnormally dry pattern anytime soon.

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  14. I just want to thank the poster above who warned me about the weather and urged me to leave work early. I was able to make it home just before the tornado hit. Thank you again, this is why I love this site!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. News flash to me...when exactly did we have a tornado?????

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    2. Last Friday we did; CCCC confirmed it was between an F-1 and an F-2 level tornado. Did quite a bit of damage too

      Delete
  15. Replies
    1. Have a frank-footer...it will ease your pain.

      Delete
  16. SMELLS LIKE FRANK-FOOTERS IN HERE!!

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  17. CCCC- How exactly did you confirm the tornado being at least an F-1???

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hold. The. Phone.

    -I never mentioned anything about any confirmed tornadoes from the Friday severe outbreak, although there were a few warnings issued.
    -The one that I did mention was only an EF0, and it occurred during the Wednesday severe outbreak, not the Friday one. I briefly touched on it right near the top of this thread.
    -I didn't confirm anything, a NWS storm survey did. The summary is avaliable at this link: http://www.weather.gov/buf/StormSummaryOntarioTornado20150611
    -"Frank Footer" was never funny and will never be funny.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why the frank footer hate?

      Delete
    2. Because the person who came up with it is a silly fart pants.

      Delete
    3. Now it just smells like fart-footers in here

      Delete
  19. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/16/senate-bill-proposes-centralizing-weather-service-forecasting-into-6-regional-offices/

    ReplyDelete
  20. I love that Frank-Footers has become a thing here! Woooooooooo!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whoever started it is genius, as it appears to get under CCCC's skin LOL

      Delete
    2. Being slightly obnoxious every day is what Real Winners do.

      Delete
    3. ^ annnnnnnnd still getting under his skin apparently LOL

      Delete
  21. FRANK-FOOTER ADVISORY UP IN HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. TD Bill's remnant low could spoil Father's Day if its expected track shifts north over the next few days. As of now most of it is expected to remain well south across southern PA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is the change of Frank-Footers on father's day?
      Look into your magic 8-ball...we'll wait...

      Delete
  23. Does anyone know if the Hurricane currently in Texas is going to make its way up to NY??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, More than likely its looking that way. CCCC said that it will likely hit us as a tropical storm possibly father's day and into Monday. Wind speeds could reach 39-73mph when it hits us. I will certainly be prepared. Winds like that are nothing mess around with, safety first!

      Delete
    2. Yep! Judging by CCCC's prediction I am purchasing my bread and milk now and getting some plywood to put on my windows!

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    3. I hope for the sake of your forecasting reputation that you are correct CCCC! If not they will eat you alive!

      Delete
  24. You mean to tell me.......First an EF-1/2 tornado, and now a Hurricane/Tropical Storm??? In NY????
    CCCC you have officially lost your mind!! Please do not post such tomfoolery on this blog!

    ReplyDelete
  25. CCCC- based on your prediction, at what time-frame on Sunday do you think winds will reach their peak?? I'm talking in the 60-70mph range. Or do you think it could exceed that thresh-hold? I find this exciting for WNY!

    ReplyDelete
  26. An actual human being spent all morning at their computer typing these comments. Let that sink in for a moment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Multiple humans. I only wrote one of them. You still didn't elaborate on when we will get those 70mph winds ;)

      Delete
  27. Soooo.....Can you elaborate more on your tropical storm prediction? Or at least give us some time frame insight?????

    ReplyDelete
  28. Alright CCCC, your foolish predictions needs to stop. We are NOT...I repeat...WE ARE NOT going to get a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane! Stop getting people worried. We MAY....I repeat....MAY....get the REMNANTS of a very weak tropical depression, which will be simply RAIN....Good Grief! Learn to read a weather map!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Leave CCCC alone. At least he's brave enough to make a prediction. I don't see any of you making predictions. So he is/might be wrong about the tropical storm, big deal. No weather man is 100% accurate all the time. I like his insight even when he is wrong (which is more often than not lately)

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  30. All of this effort for so little return. At least you tried anon.

    ♬ YOU TRIED SO HARD ♬
    ♬ AND GOT SO FAR ♬
    ♬ BUT IN THE END ♬
    ♬ IT DOESN'T EVEN MATTER ♬

    ReplyDelete
  31. The ensembles keep us largely cooler than average through July 4th. Beyond that point is a bit murky, but there are currently no signs of prolonged heat anytime soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank god!

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    2. Mid to upper 70's is very nice.

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  32. This June has sucked. Rain, rain and more rain. This pattern better change or this whole summer will suck.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Any signs of this weather pattern changing so we can have a week or two of sunny days. My vegetable garden needs some dry weather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GFS ensemble mean precip anomaly for the next two weeks:
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015062112/gfs-ens_apcpna7d_us_1.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015062112/gfs-ens_apcpna7d_us_2.png

      GEM ensemble mean:
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015062112/gem-ens_apcpna7d_us_1.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015062112/gem-ens_apcpna7d_us_2.png

      So in a word: no.

      Delete
    2. Just great! I think this is basically the same weather pattern we were in all winter. Only difference is we are into a summer? mode. Still cool and still wet.

      Delete
    3. The negative temp departures won't be nearly as pronounced this time around.

      Delete
  34. CCCC- What are you seeing for the 4th of July weekend?? Do you think this pattern breaks by then?? Could we see mid-80's and sunshine? Hopefully?

    Also- looking long range, what do you see in store for the summer? Hot and dry? Rainy and cooler?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He's predicting the next named storm to go up the coast and hit NYC directly and then go over us a day or so later. Be prepared for a windy 4th!

      Delete
  35. I should hope that everyone who visits here regularly can tell which posts are nonsense and which ones aren't.

    Anyway...the 4th looks slightly below average temp-wise in the ensembles right now. Way too early to tell if it'll rain on that specific day or not, but we still look to be mired in a wetter than average pattern in that general time frame. The rest of the summer can't be predicted with any reliability, I'd bank on no pronounced hot stretches for awhile though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ugh...that's not what I was hoping to hear, but thanks CCCC

      Delete
  36. Also I hope Rachel Barnhart reads this blog, because I'd like her to know that her opinion on the Buffalo skyline is objectively wrong :P

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kind of how you were wrong about TS Bill coming through here last week. I was really disappointed and had to cancel my hurricane party.

      Delete
  37. SMELLS LIKE FRANK-FOOTERS IN HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  38. When you're so unoriginal that I run out of ways to make fun of you, then it might be time for a new bait.

    Still no heat waves, hurricanes, avalanches or gamma ray bursts in sight for the time being.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I worked with an overly paranoid guy once who was concerned with the sun's gamma rays and how it would change people's driving habits. No joke, he was a creepy old guy.

      Delete
  39. Still smells like Frank-footers in here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  40. We may be able to spot the northern lights again tonight, probably low on the horizon though.

    ReplyDelete
  41. El Ninos are generally cool in the East aren't they? During the 2nd half of summer I mean.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's pretty much what I've heard, although I haven't read anything about the coolness being more prominent in either half. The pre El Nino summer of 2009 was actually warmer in the second half.

      Delete
  42. Looks like another shitty wet weekend. This is getting old.

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  43. The weekend forecast definitely went downhill in a hurry. Mean QPF in the ensembles is on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches, spread out mostly from late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning. And unlike most of our recent rainfall it won't be due to thunderstorms. it'll be a steady rainfall with a stiff breeze. In a word: ugly.

    ReplyDelete
  44. You know what my pet peeve is about news 8 weather? Why does this station have so many different forecasts? On their web page it says one thing, then if you go to Scott's Facebook page he has a whole other forecast....I don't get it. Ridiculous!....and we can all agree....June weather was awful. Wet, Wet, Wet. ....oddly May was a lot nicer. I just hope July can bring the heat and sun! Where is the person who said our weather was better than down south? ...at least they have sun!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have 2 different forecasts just on this website.

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    2. Agreed. News 8 pages have different forecasts listed. For example Weds July 1st they are showing high temps of 77, 65 depending on where you look.

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    3. I know....and they say they are the most accurate weather forecast....of course it is accurate, because they throw out 3 different predictions...one is bound to be right!

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    4. LMAO sounds like none of them are on the same page! Most accurate my butt! Smells like frank-footers!!!!!

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    5. Can someone from News 8 clarify why there are 37 different forecasts?????
      Or do they only post every 26 days now..

      Delete
  45. July 1st.....temp 65....only in ROC.....so much for being rewarded for having the crappiest winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think they are wrong. July 1st will be closer to mid 70's.

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    2. I hope so.....and you are probably right. I just think they should predict the weather the day before instead of bothering with a 7 day.

      Delete
  46. NEWS8: Rochester's 'Most Possibilities Covered' Forecast!

    ReplyDelete
  47. @DLD,
    I'd still take our current June weather over what they have had in Florida! In central FL they are running daily highs in the mid to upper 90's... no thanks! And while their precip for June is currently running less than ROC, they'd normally have a lot more than our rainy June. Mold grows on everything down there including the people!

    As for the Carolina's, another place you mentioned, they are running 50% above of our current rainy June and nearing 3x their normal June rain.

    All in all, while not a stellar June, we are doing way better than many places!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DJD is just a complainer. I agree with you. I'd take our June of Florida's any time.

      Delete
    2. @DJD,
      Let me also add, that while this weekend is going to be a disappointing stinker, we've had nice weather since Sunday. Yes the month started off very wet and cool but it certainly did not keep that pace. Our avg high is 76 so far.

      Seems we are conditioned to just bitch about our weather here for some reason. The bitching has far exceeded the actual rain.

      Delete
    3. I would like highs in the 90's and sunny. Just because you like this crap weather doesn't mean everyone else does. June has been rain or chance of it every other day. What is your problem exactly? that you have to take everything I say personally like I am offending you because I don't like ROC weather? very odd...Anyone you ask would agree that this weather has been crap lately. We went through the most miserable long winter so I am sorry if I am itching for some Vitamin D! ROC has more cloud coverage than Seattle..As far as Florida...in South Florida it does rain, but the rain is not lingering for the most part. They have downpours then it basically stops and the sun is out within minutes. To act like Florida, or NC is comparable to ROC with crap weather is ridiculous. Why do you think people move out of the northeast? To avoid the crap weather and of course NYS but that is a whole other discussion.

      Delete
    4. 90s is sparse in this region so if that's what you expect and like then you live in the wrong place. Most don't like 90s and humid which is why snowbirds come North and rent is cheaper in FL over the summer. People would be bitching if it was like that here because they don't want that crap stifling heat.

      You act like western NY has had its own weather this june. It's been raining in a lot of places this summer. Carolinas are way above normal and way above us right now. That is a fact but I guess facts don't matter to you. Just watch the National news a see how many places are way worse off than us.

      The east is getting soaked this weekend and that sucks. The low that will soak us and many others this weekend is a once in 10 year system for June. Again it's not just us.

      Seattle is exceptionally dry as has been much of the West. But if you prefer that then move to Seattle and enjoy the rain next year, and everyday thereafter for the rest of your life there.

      If you actually bothered to notice, this week has been very nice.

      I don't mind complaints about the weather, but its really dumb to talk as if NYS is the only place it been a rough June.

      Delete
    5. Ummm....since I live in Western NY....I figured I would comment on the weather in the region I am living in...am I missing something? :) It doesn't matter to me about other areas getting the same crap....I am an average person who doesn't like the weather in this area. I don't follow the nations weather pattern. OVERALL the weather here is not comparable to NC. Just because their rain totals are above us now...they are not on the average. When you keep going on about 'it's not just us'....I don't care...I am here and I am talking about ROC. . What I am awfully intrigued about is your insistence on trying to tell someone that their opinion is wrong. My idea of crap is not the same as your idea of crap...who cares. And I am trying to relocate to a place where the weather doesn't depress me a majority of the time....

      Delete
    6. It's the woe is me mentally that is illogical.

      I hope you find happiness wherever you relocate, but I suspect you'll find something else to complain about.

      Good luck.

      Delete
  48. News 8 has both a computer generated forecast and a human generated forecast. At least that's what I've heard, which would explain the disparity between forecasts. And there's nothing wrong with covering every *realistic* possibility, that's actually what all of the best forecasters do. The ones who make premature definitive calls will frequently bust and draw public ire. Most of those types are relegated to running their own private businesses for a good reason...no respectable agency will hire them. The goal is reliability, not pinpoint accuracy, which is why you hear phrases like "still early" and "not set in stone" when a forecast beyond 3 days or so is referenced. The 7-day is meant to give you a general picture and make you aware of realistic possibilities, so that you aren't caught with your thumb up your ass when things deteriorate. Remember the days when hundreds of people would die in landfalling major hurricanes? There are reasons those days are long gone (Katrina being a rare and obvious exception), one of which is the advent of extended forecasts. We don't get hurricanes up here, but we do get bad snowstorms. Imagine coming home from work one evening to view your turbo accurate 1-day forecast, only to find out that a severe blizzard is on the way and you have exactly 8 hours to prepare. Now you have to go buy emergency supplies while fighting through thousands of other people who are also scrambling to do the exact same thing. What if you have family coming up to visit but they don't know about the storm, because they were traveling when it first came to light? Now they're going to get stuck and you'll spend your time worrying about their safety. What if you have an important business meeting to attend but your flight there has been cancelled due to weather? Good luck switching flights anytime soon with hordes of others scrambling to do the same, since they all just found out about the storm as well. Gridlock city all over the place, chaos ensues, roadways get clogged with stranded motorists, everyone starts hating their life and wishing there was some way to know about these storms with more lead time so a contingency plan can happen. Enter...the extended forecast. They exist because people want them.

    ReplyDelete
  49. CCCC the issue above isn't about posting an extended forecast and how reliable it is, it is about posting multiple extended forecasts in different places that have no similarities. Every other news site I go to has ONE 7 day forecast, and yes it may change from day to day, and no we do not expect it to be dead on accurate...but the point here is why are there different 7 day forecasts in multiple locations for the same news channel??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a website issue. The weather team should have one place to update that propagates to all forecast links. Frankly I don't think any local news station have well designed websites.

      Delete
    2. I was mostly trying to address the claims that it's useless to predict the weather beyond one day, and also the claims that News 8 is trying to cheat or something. Otherwise I'm definitely in the camp of having only one forecast on display, especially since computer generated forecasts tend to be wildly inaccurate (see: every crap-app in existence).

      Delete
  50. Yes, my main issue are the multiple forecasts within one site. As far as predicting it one day in advance....that is my sarcasm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Judging by above, your main issue is you need to move out of the area and go to the humid hell that is south Florida. FYI, I used to live down there and I would take this "bad" weather over 90s all of the time and a ton of humidity any day. Hey, guess what, I didn't like that weather so I moved away from it. Same thing you can do.

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    2. Wow...thank you so much for taking the time to point this out to me.....And thank you for gracing us with your presence in good old Western NY....glad to have you.

      Delete
    3. You are very welcome! Point of the story, quit your whining and actually do something to change what you don't like. You have the power to move instead of just whining about it.

      Delete
    4. STFU you freaking loser!!!!!!

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    5. Sick and tired of your weird online obsession with what I am doing and 'whining' about. Get a life Mr. I hide behind a computer ! anonymously.! Leave your name and number on here and we will see if you have the same crap to say. POS. see, this weather takes me to this place of rage!!! Lmfao

      Delete
    6. Sick and tired of your weird online obsession with what I am doing and 'whining' about. Get a life Mr. I hide behind a computer ! anonymously.! Leave your name and number on here and we will see if you have the same crap to say. POS. see, this weather takes me to this place of rage!!! Lmfao

      Delete
    7. You are the angry obsessed one, You might want to go to counseling but that's another thing you probably will just sit and complain about instead of actually doing anything.

      Delete
  51. Nice weekend to make some nice homemade chicken noodle soup....(is it June?) :)

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  52. Everyone's opinion is wrong. Including mine.

    No major changes to the weekend outlook. I'm a bit surprised we aren't included in the flood watch though.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Hard to believe the weather is going down the crapper so dramatically after such a beautiful Friday. Looking decent Monday and beyond.

    ReplyDelete

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