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Friday, June 26

A WEEKEND WASHOUT

It's already been a very wet month in Rochester with nearly double the amount of rain that we normally see and it looks like we'll be adding a lot more to the bucket over the weekend.

An unseasonably strong area of low pressure currently developing across the Ohio Valley will slowly make its way into western New York Saturday with rain overspreading the region. By afternoon, the rain will become heavy at times and a gusty east wind will develop making it a day to stay inside.

Confidence in seeing significant rain is high since almost all of the major forecast models are in agreement.

The GFS model is showing a general 1-2" of rain for most of the region with locally over 3", especially across the Southern Tier.


Another very reliable model, the ECMWF is painting a similar picture with widespread 1-2" amounts and locally over 3".



Along with the widespread rain, gusty winds over 30 mph will make it very uncomfortable to be outside. Temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees below average with highs struggling to climb into the lower 60s by Sunday. 

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones







171 comments:

  1. I think it's time to write off this summer and hope for a better one next year. From what i hear and read, July is not looking any better than June has been. Any thoughts?

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  2. It's been a lot better than the whiners would say. Sorry but saying write off is idiotic.

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    1. People love to complain. This hasn't been that bad at all. A little rainy at times but we've had a lot worse. Summer just started so for the above person to write off the rest of it is just dumb.

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    2. I know they love to complain. Agreed we have had worse summers with more rain and we'll below average temperature. I think we are fortunate in that our average temperature for June is less than a degree below average.

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    3. Say what you want, but come September, you all will be saying, "Hey, that guy who said write off summer way back in June was right!"

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    4. Are you people living in a dream world some where?We have been lucky if we get more then two days of dry weather put tigether and even the local weathermen have been saying it's the most rain we have had in june since they began keeeping records.A little rain,and cool,are you out of your mind?The average high for this time in june is in the mid to upper 70's,not 64.Five degrees below normal my ass!You people are the ones that think global warming and climate change don't exist.

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    5. Don't know where you live that you can say it's been alot better than the whiners say.Rains almost every other day and the farmers can't even get into the fields becaue it's been so wet.

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  3. I would not write off the summer since it just started, but I disagree that it has not been rainy and cool this month. We have had one of the rainiest Junes in a while. Not sure what it will rank, but may be in the top 10 rainiest Junes ever. It has been cool and cloudy as well. The start of July dos not look any better. We will see.

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    1. No one said it hasn't been rainy. But facts be damaged through yesterday, Friday, we are 0.5 degrees above normal. Average high for June is 77 and we are at 76. Cool? Hardly.

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    2. Sorry stupid auto correct... Lol... Should say facts be damned not damaged.

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  4. Yikes. Alright here's some knowledge to settle this for good:

    -We average 12 days in June with measurable precipitation. We're currently at 14, and will probably finish the month at 16. Not very anomalous.
    -We are currently 0.5 degrees ABOVE average for the month, and will probably finish at or slightly above average. Again, not very anomalous. Anon already mentioned this but I thought I would bring it up again.
    -We HAVE had well above average precipitation, likely due to an unusual number of severe events.
    -The highest temperature we've experienced this month is 83, where typically it's somewhere in the low 90s.

    So it's been atypical in some ways and rather typical in others. Really depends on what statistics you choose to judge by. And writing off an entire season after one month is definitely, absolutely, 100 percent Grade A ridiculous. Hey, you might wind up being correct and the whole thing will be a wash, but it will have been essentially a lucky guess. Because the fact is this: there is NO RELIABLE WAY to predict the outcome of an entire season. Not only that, it's highly unusual for the same pattern to persist for three straight months. For all we know the second half of July could flip to an eastern ridge and we bake until Labor Day. Or maybe not. All we can do is wait and see.

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    1. Thanks for affirming what I posted earlier. One clarification worth noting--- While we may get a day in June that reaches 90, I don't believe it's very "typical" as you stated. We only average 5 days the entire summer at 90+ and those days typically occur in July & August.

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    2. The NWS climate narrative says we get 9 days at 90 or better:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/rocclifo.htm

      IDK how many of those happen in June on average, but I'm assuming 1 or 2 based on average monthly temps and what I can remember over the past several years. Can't recall a June since I've been here where we didn't at least get close to 90 once or twice, other than this one. What I do know for sure is that 83 is abnormally low for a June max temp...Josh Nichols actually mentioned recently that the record low for a June max is 82.

      And for those who enjoy whining about our summer climate, take note of these lines from the narrative:

      "Summers are warm and sunny across the region. The average temperature is in the 70 to 72 degree range. Rain can be expected every third or fourth day, almost always in the form of showers and thunderstorms."
      "Still, the area usually experiences some of the most delightful summer weather in the East."

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    3. Interesting disparity between your data and mine. I can't recall the site I found it at, but it might have been climate usa or something like that. I would trust your source over mine :)

      I did look at June daily readings on the NWS site ranging back to 2010 and we had 6 days 90 or above in June for 6 years... some years nothing and other years 1 or 2 days in the 90's for June.

      The upcoming week looks decent with mid 70's +, although showers are likely many days. Depending on the timing and the amount could dictate how much of a problem they will be.

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  5. Looks like this may go down as the year without a summer. Looking wet and somewhat cool right through the middle of July.

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    1. No. We've already dispelled the cool notion with real data rather than whining emotion.

      If you want to look at bad summers, look at 2004 and 1992-- much cooler and wetter.

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    2. Whiners are going to whine whine whine.

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  6. Chris now in PenfieldJune 28, 2015 at 12:08 PM

    I am shocked that we are still in the same shallow trough set up we have been dealing with since January 3rd. It has dissipated here and there, but has been entrenched for the most part for nearly 6 months.

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    1. You are absolutely right. We are domed.

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  7. Does anyone have early feelings about winter predictions.

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  8. I've been tempted to post some way-too-early thoughts on the upcoming winter. El Nino is ramping up and currently looks to peak in moderate/strong territory sometime in mid fall. So I looked up some winters with early peaking moderate/strong Ninos and drew some preliminary conclusions. Based ONLY on El Nino projections our winter would probably have the following general progression:

    -Another mild December
    -A mild start to January
    -A flip to cold during mid/late January
    -A cold February, but not brain-bustingly cold
    -A mild March

    I'm not going to touch on snowfall from this far out, all I'm gonna say is that the winters I looked at averaged out to slightly below normal. There was a very wide range in the individual totals though. Again, this is based ONLY on how El Nino is expected to develop, which will likely change with time. And then there are other factors that can't really be taken into account until well into the fall season, such as Siberian snow cover and North Pacific SSTs. Basically what I'm saying is that this bare-bones outlook means next to nothing and will probably miss by a country mile. So then why did I bother typing this out? Because I'm a nerd and I can't sleep. I will end with a picture of a seal, because there is never a bad time for seals.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/00/Common_Seal_Phoca_vitulina.jpg

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldJune 30, 2015 at 6:53 AM

      TripleC+1, when do you expect Anonymous I, II, III, IV, etc to say how wrong you are when we get a Thanksgiving snowfall? Or when we have a warm up mid-January when you "predicted" a flip to cold? It is amazing how adult humans cherry pick what they want to read/hear, and how once they see something they disagree with, completely ignore all of the caveats attached to that comment…such as "next to nothing"…"miss by a country mile"…

      Myself…I am not confident in an El Nino winter at this time. Too much can change, as you said. However, we have had three "ballpark" average winters in a row, each with really cold and snowy months of March. As I have been saying, we are due for a dud, like 11-12. Not saying it will happen this year, and now we are on the threshold of July and are STILL in the same Bering Strait flow (<--- I just made that up) we have been since early January, I say there is potential for a repeat winter like we had last year. Correct me if I am wrong, but now that we are within a few weeks of the peak of summer and we haven't been able to kick this pattern, it is going to be with us for awhile.

      I am willing to go out in a limb and say we won't have a 90+ degree day for the rest of the summer. I made that prediction after a late June pattern change last summer, and was damn right expect for a 92 F fluke day on Sept 5. Perhaps there will be a fluke day or two this time too, but nothing extended.

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    2. Oh the Anon Brigade will surely have something to say whenever I miss a prediction, as per usual. They're almost like an angry little fan club.

      The thing about El Nino is that the models have depicted a rather vigorous one for quite awhile now, and have actually been trending slightly stronger during the past several weeks. So confidence in having an El Nino is pretty high, but what's still up in the air is the final intensity. If it winds up on the stronger end then the odds of a 2014-15 winter repeat will be very low, since strong ENSO phases are generally correlated with mild winters in the Northeast. In El Nino's case it's because of a strengthened Pacific jet stream sending modified air across the CONUS. True that the eastern trough has been a persistently recurring feature since about a year and a half ago, right around the time the NE Pacific began heating up (by no coincidence). But I've heard a few rumblings that we're going to see a shift to cold in that region within 6-12 months. I personally doubt we're going to see it in time for any meaningful impact on this winter, but when it does eventually happen we'll likely flip back to an eastern ridging regime. Also we haven't had the same troughing pattern since January, we actually got a several week break from it during our record warm May.

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  9. Scott you will be missed and we all send our prayers and thoughts. We can not wait until you return to News 8.

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  10. Michele in PenfieldJune 29, 2015 at 9:13 PM

    Ditto anonymous going to miss Scott on Channel 8 and on this blog. Sending positive thoughts and prayers his way.

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  11. Damn rough that his heart condition got worse. He said he'll be gone awhile, I can only hope it doesn't become "quite awhile" like he also said it might. But I have absolute faith that medical science will make sure it doesn't become "never again." Godspeed, soldier.

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  12. Chris now in PenfieldJune 30, 2015 at 6:42 AM

    Sad news. I wish him the best.

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  13. Scott is an Iron Man. Best wishes and hope you're back sooner than later.

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  14. Scott, one time when there was a high wind event coming during the overnight I was watching your forecast and it was like you looked right at me and said, "don't be afraid." I had been afraid but you calmed me down so I could go to sleep and you were right, it wasn't as bad as the "others" were predicting. Thank you for that and now I say to you, don't be afraid. You have all of us praying for you. God Bless you and your family.

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  15. Scott, best of luck. Our thoughts and prayers are all with you. Your positive attitude will get you through this.

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  16. There was some discussion about the normalcy of 90 degree days in June. I updated my KROC data spreadsheet. If you're interested in the spreadsheet, click my screen name or go here:

    https://app.box.com/s/zc21szdg9i1jmlpvlp6wn7pwkqrkhjel

    The short version is that since 1926 we average:
    1.36 90+ June days
    47/90 Junes had at least 1 90 degree day.
    Max: 10 days in June 1949
    Need 4 to make the top 10.

    Annually we average 6.28
    Max:24 in 1952
    16 days to make the top 10.

    In short. There's nothing unusual about not hitting 90 degrees in June. Actually we have hit 90 in June about every other year

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    1. So we now have assertions that Rochester experiences any of 5, 6 or 9 days at 90 or better each year. Lovely. I'm betting that the 9 is for 30 year climo, the 5 is since records began at the airport, and obviously the 6 is since 1926. Also I could've sworn that we hit 90 in June during most years, but I guess not. It's still unusual that we haven't even sniffed the mid/upper 80s this month though.

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  17. June 90+ days since 1990

    6/20/2012 92
    6/8/2011 91
    6/13/2008 91
    6/9/2008 93
    6/6/2008 92
    6/27/2007 92
    6/26/2007 93
    6/8/2007 92
    6/18/2006 93
    6/17/2006 91
    6/28/2005 91
    6/27/2005 91
    6/25/2005 92
    6/9/2005 91
    6/25/2002 91
    6/19/2001 95
    6/15/2001 91
    6/14/2001 91
    6/27/1999 93
    6/19/1995 91
    6/18/1994 93
    6/17/1994 93
    6/16/1994 93
    6/15/1994 93
    6/25/1993 91
    6/28/1991 91
    6/17/1990 91

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Number of June 85 Plus Days Back to 1990
      Row Labels Sum of 85_Plus
      2015_06 0
      2014_06 8
      2013_06 5
      2012_06 9
      2011_06 2
      2010_06 3
      2009_06 2
      2008_06 7
      2007_06 13
      2006_06 2
      2005_06 13
      2004_06 2
      2003_06 3
      2002_06 6
      2001_06 7
      2000_06 3
      1999_06 9
      1998_06 3
      1997_06 3
      1996_06 1
      1995_06 6
      1994_06 4
      1993_06 2
      1992_06 1
      1991_06 7
      1990_06 5

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  18. * Keep in Mind. The data for the 20s is only 4 years, and the 2010s is only 6 years.
    Divide by 10 for the average # 90+ June days for the decade

    30's, 40's, and 50's were smoking, by this measure.

    I apologize if the table below formats poorly.

    Sum of 90_Plus Column Labels
    Row Labels 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 102 Grand Total
    1920s 7 6 2 3 18
    1930s 21 17 14 11 6 6 3 1 2 1 2 84
    1940s 27 21 23 13 6 7 4 5 1 107
    1950s 44 26 10 6 7 1 1 95
    1960s 18 9 3 1 2 33
    1970s 30 4 18 3 1 56
    1980s 22 12 3 2 2 1 42
    1990s 22 11 2 1 1 37
    2000s 26 8 16 4 6 3 1 64
    2010s 4 10 6 6 1 1 1 29
    Grand Total 221 66 137 37 40 26 20 11 4 1 2 565

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    1. Here's a Pretty Picture of the above Table of 90+ days by decade vs Temperature

      https://app.box.com/s/9jftt0sgk036ldqjinlpfgyb9w70hi7y

      Or click my Screen Name

      I feel funny posting so much garbly gook, but..hey. It's summer. Even the hot dog guy is quiet.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 2, 2015 at 10:08 AM

      Wow. What the hell was going on in the 30s and 40s, atmospherically? Obviously, we know about the Dust Bowl…were farming practices in those days enough to influence global temperatures…or at least North American temperatures? It had to cool and wet elsewhere in the world if we were that anomalous during that 20 year stretch.

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  19. Good stuff sir. Looks like we do indeed average around 5 days in the 90s each year based on 30 year climo. Which calls into question why the NWS climate narrative says we average 9. It's probably referring to the entirety of the region as opposed to just the immediate metro, which would bring the downsloping blast furnace known as the Genesee Valley into the equation. It looks at a glance like the Dansville airport keeps unofficial records, which would make sense as they're one of the stations the NWS uses for current conditions, so that could be where the number comes from. Still, it seems weird to me that the narrative would paint a broadbrush number across the entire region when in reality it only applies to a small area.

    Hopefully the reason hot dog guy is quiet is because he's cooking some fresh original bait. It's just plain disheartening to see the same old worn-out rig over and over, we need something new and exciting once in awhile.

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    1. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 2, 2015 at 10:02 AM

      As for wiener-man, I enjoy the simplicity of a consistent, stupid message. What was the other guy? Take it to the bank, or something like that?

      I have often wondered about that number of 90+ days stat myself. Seems as though we have enough summers with ZERO 90+ days to make that number way lower than the NWS number.

      The average sunshine % for ROC is in the mid to upper 60s for June, July, August…top ten in the nation…but I believe that number is artificially low too, since that stat is based on mostly sunny or sunny days recorded at the airport, which is located south of a majority of the metro's population. The further from the lake, the more cloud cover in the summer due to daytime soil heating and evaporation disparities between the lakeshore (within 10 miles) communities and south of that line.

      I would imagine that Hamlin, Greece, Irondequoit, Webster, Ontario and Sodus all exceed 70% possible sunshine during the three meteorological months of summer…plus have fewer than five 90+ days on average.

      Delete
  20. After today things are shaping up nicely for the holiday period and maybe beyond. Lets hope that holds.

    Well mother nature eeked in some late day rain to give us the 10th rainiest June on record. On the plus side we finished about average temperature wise.

    Let's hope for a dryer July.

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  21. Just to corroborate the first part of anon's post...the GFS ensemble mean has a drier than average pattern for the next 7 days before invoking near average precip for the 8-14 day period. The GGEM ensemble has near average precip followed by above average for the same periods. I'm siding with the more reliable GFS ensemble for both periods, but either way we're definitely looking at a nice several day break from the near constant activity of the past several weeks.

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  22. And rain sneaks back into the forecast..sweet!

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    1. If you're talking about tomorrow then it's just a low chance for most of us, and we should be cleared out completely in time for fireworks. The midweek low/mid range chance has always been there. Drier pattern =/= dry all of the time.

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  23. We've now experienced a largely dry pattern for nearly a week and that looks to continue through at least the weekend. So no complaining is allowed when we flip back to a rainy pattern.

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    1. What? Dry pattern??????? Are u kidding me???

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  24. 'largely' dry pattern is a bit exaggerated. A few no rain days is not a huge deal. Rained all day yesterday.......so yes, we can complain bc a majority of this summer has been rain. This weekend looks to be the best weekend we have had all summer. there are actual sun symbols with out clouds/rain. imagine that

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    1. Hey! Welcome back! I missed your whining! Did your basement dry up from your crying so you needed to make more tears?

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    2. Hey DLD,
      No arguing that yesterday was a lousy washout. But month to date we are actually below normal on rain!

      This is the "best weekend" so far this summer? Did you forget about last weekend already?

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    3. Last weekend was solid sun also.

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  25. Are we ever going to get a full week without rain this summer????

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  26. And here I was wondering if uBlock was somehow filtering new comments from my browser.

    Out of 10 days this month 6 have not produced measurable rainfall, including 5 in a row at one point. Out of the 4 remaining that did, one produced a whopping four hundredths of an inch while another featured about 20 minutes of downpours. "Largely dry" seems accurate to me. And yes, as anon pointed out we are running a deficit for July so far...we're at 0.68 inches when we should be at 1.06.

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  27. We may be running a small deficit for July, but we are only 10 days into it. We are running a large surplus for the year, so to say we are dry is utterly ridiculous.

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    1. We experienced a pattern change on July 1 and this pattern has been "largely dry." What cccc said is spot on.

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    2. Our yearly departure to date is +1.72 inches. Really doesn't constitute a large surplus over a 6+ month time span. We're slightly over 110% of average, 18.58 inches compared to the average of 16.86 inches for the date.

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    3. Pattern change????? What to more rain??? LOL.

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    4. We have a 0.48 inch rainfall deficit for July so far. The majority of days have had no measurable rainfall. It's a dry pattern. End of discussion.

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    5. Nope. We are almost 2" above normal for the year. June was ridiculously wet. Last weekend was rainy and it rained this week. It has still been wet even though we are a little below normal rainfall for July which we will easily make for in 1 thunderstorm.

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    6. "We are almost 2" above normal for the year."
      1.52 inches. That puts us at about 109 percent of average, so still not a major surplus.

      "June was ridiculously wet."
      Yes, yes it was. But we're talking about July, not June.

      "Last weekend was rainy"
      ...lol seriously? Last weekend was 100 percent dry for most of us. Not a single drop of rainfall.

      "and it rained this week."
      But the vast majority of it was dry.

      "It has still been wet even though we are a little below normal rainfall for July"
      We've gotten a tad over half of average to date, that's a significant departure seeing that we're almost halfway through the month.

      "which we will easily make for in 1 thunderstorm."
      Assuming we get a thunderstorm anytime soon. The best chance looks like Tuesday, at which point the complaining will surely resume.

      You just can't spin it no matter how hard you try. This has been a dry month so far by every possible metric. Period. The End. La Fin. Das Ende. Конец. 最後.

      Delete
  28. Here's the NMME forecast for global SST's during the OND period:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas3.html

    NDJ:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas4.html

    And DJF:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html

    Pretty boring and useless right? It's actually interesting for several reasons:

    -Most of the individual models depict a strong basin-wide El Nino, as opposed to an east-based one. The NCAR and CFS are the exceptions, with pronounced east-based depictions. This difference carries significant implications for the winter season, since a basin-wide event would make end-to-end warmth less likely than in the case of an east-based event. We would still have warm spells though, that's a near certainty in strong ENSO events.
    -The depicted strength of the event favors a potentially very active subtropical jet stream.
    -The warm pool in the northeast Pacific is still present on every model. This feature has been one of the main contributors to our frequent troughiness of the past few years.
    -This particular combination of very warm SSTs in both the northeast Pacific and equatorial Pacific is very rare.

    What this means is the following: classic strong El Nino analogs are likely going to be nearly useless in trying to predict the winter season, especially the ones with prominent east-based events. It also means we could see more frequent and pronounced cold shots than what a strong Nino typically brings. That makes a few big assumptions though, namely that the NE Pac warmth really will hang on through the winter and that the Nino won't simply overpower anything the warm pool tries to do. But those assumptions aren't without some merit...the warm pool is apparently quite deep which means a lot will need to happen to get rid of it, and on top of that the newest run of the Euro monthly model is hinting at a mean positive PNA regime for at least the early part of winter. All of this is very, very preliminary and subject to major shifts, but if a combination of frequent Pacific-driven troughiness and a Nino-fueled subtropical jet on steroids is indeed the look we end up with, then the theme of the winter will likely be that of "high risk high reward" when it comes to snowfall.

    None of this matters much on a sunny and very warm July afternoon though...

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    1. Here's an honest question. From what you see, how does that shape up for the Winter out west in the Colorado area. I plan on spending some time out there but don't know much about their typical Winters as of yet.

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    2. My guess right now would be above average temps in the mean, with near average precipitation. Preliminary and subject to change.

      Delete
  29. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 14, 2015 at 6:15 AM

    Could these two areas of Pacific warmth create a zonal flow between the two of them…or…frequent cold shots to the west (such as 2013-14), with the polar jet coming back up north through the Ohio Valley? If that is the case, we will get several warm-ups and we are on the edge of the cold air rather than in the midst of the polar flow.

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    Replies
    1. El Nino tends to strengthen the Pacific jet while the warm pool tends to buckle it, so it's really two competing forces at play here. The moments where El Nino asserts itself will be the times when a zonal flow is favored, but that's not to say the warm pool won't also have its moments (the Euro monthly and now also the JAMSTEC seasonal both yield such a picture with a predominantly negative EPO). It's tough to envision frequent troughs out west the way things look right now...at least until the following winter, when a pronounced La Nina will be favored...

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 14, 2015 at 2:40 PM

      But WHERE it buckles is key, correct? That warm pool of water in the NE Pacific is causing the H out west right now, and going back several months, if not year, isn't it? If it buckles too far west (coming from perspective of those who want an assertive winter), the polar jet dips down thru Montana, the upper Plains, then "straightens out" and veers back north through the Ohio Valley…leaving us with stretches of warmth from a retrograding SE ridge.

      Delete
    3. I wouldn't worry about any mean Pacific/western ridge being too far west unless the warm water pushes significantly westward. What you're describing with the PJ diving through Montana is actually fairly close to what a "typical" La Nina pattern looks like...although one of the defining features of La Nina is a lack of any real persistent pattern. Any ridging that happens will probably shift around anyway, even last winter it didn't remain rooted in one spot the entire season.

      Delete
  30. Maybe it will be the return of the polar votex for our agency. Kinda of missed it last year, except for the month of February. Imagine, if we had Dec through March like February was this year. Exciting!!!!!

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    1. I really doubt we see the PV come back as far south as it has the past two winters, and if it does move in close it probably won't hang around for long. It had much less resistance those winters due to ENSO being very weak.

      "Imagine, if we had Dec through March like February was this year."

      I am now envisioning Snowdog lying on his living room floor surrounded by crusty tissues, exalted and exhausted from the relentless weeniegasms brought on by the most legendary winter in history. And somewhere off in a far away place, CCCC is found babbling incoherent nonsense on top of a massive stack of NAM printouts, his mind permanently fried.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 14, 2015 at 2:42 PM

      ..and Chris now in Penfield looking at the RPM model and saying, "hey, I have a gauge in my car that measures this too!"

      Delete
    3. I'm ashamed to admit that I stared blankly at the screen for a few minutes before getting the joke. My transformation to a brain dead husk has apparently already begun. I think it's a sign of things to come. Upcoming winter confirmed for epic mega trough and snow up to the rooftops.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 14, 2015 at 8:10 PM

      Ha! I am good for a stumper once in awhile.

      Delete
  31. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 14, 2015 at 8:09 PM

    What causes the SE ridge to be so dominant in the summer (except with a strong polar jet this summer)? Atlantic wind patterns blowing hot, dry air off the northern African deserts? Regardless, it appears as though this winter will be at least normal…in this very preliminary, extremely early outlook of an outlook. Perhaps it is ironic that an ad for the movie "Train Wreck" just came on the air on the TV in the background.

    On a side note, I am enjoying this dialogue…and learning a lot.

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    1. I don't know the answer to that for sure. Probably something to do with teleconnection influences being much weaker in the summer, which would allow the semi-permanent Atlantic ridge to just chill. The SE ridge, in many cases, is just the western fringe of the Atlantic ridge. Speaking of the Atlantic ridge, here's a very convenient segue for anyone wondering about the pattern through early August (hint hint):

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-model-update-15/50044779

      Delete
  32. Is it me or does News 8 seem to inflate their temperature predictions in the summer? Every year I seem to see them almost rooting for 90 degrees while everyone else have anywhere from 2-7 degrees cooler temps. Not like a couple degrees makes much of a difference, the high humidity is what makes it suck I just was wondering if anyone else noticed that.

    ReplyDelete
  33. 90 or better is in most forecasts for Sunday. Will it really happen this time? Will Chris's prediction of no more 90s this summer meet its fiery demise, or will it live to see another day? And when will CCCC finally stop having wet dreams about historic snowstorms in the middle of July? Tune in next time for another exciting episode of WEATHERBLOG Z

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 87 will what our official high will be Sunday, mark that down along with an ice storm August 3rd.....

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 17, 2015 at 5:28 PM

      Well…it is interesting to see that as the SE ridge pushes the jet stream north today, that it is dropping some rain with it…

      I think I might retract my "no more 90 F days this summer" prediction based on what the jet and Bermuda have in store for us the first two weeks of August.

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 17, 2015 at 5:30 PM

      Bermuda High, that is…I do not anticipate a climate changing invasion of the US by Bermuda.

      Delete
    4. Those damned Bermudans sitting out there on their island, who knows what nefarious things they might be plotting...

      Delete
    5. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 17, 2015 at 8:49 PM

      You are right…the Bermudians can become nefaritious at time…

      CNP <--- likes word play.

      Delete
  34. I drove in that flooding rain this morning around 4 AM.. in a word..BANANAS! I had to drive 30 MPH because I couldn't tell if I was still on the road with the wipers at full speed just chucking water off the windshield. The sky was just constant electricity with nonstop lightning.. not sure I have ever driven in anything quite like that before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Total craziness, can definitely attest to the nonstop lightning part. Got woken up out of a sound sleep by the constant thunder and torrential rain hitting my window.

      Delete
  35. As I said a week ago all it would take is 1 thunderstorm to make up for the small deficit we had this month. The airport picked 1.53" from that thunderstorm. The wet summer continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh it's Mr or Mrs. Glass Half LOL... We are currently ~1/2" over because of last night 2 hour period. We've basically had two rainy events this month plus last night when everyone was sleeping (or trying to) so last night has zero impact on outdoor activities. It's been bone dry the last two weekend and this weekend there will be far more dry periods than not on interrupted by passing thunderstorms. By the end of next week good chance we may be back under average, so by your logic then we can say July has been "DRY"

      Delete
    2. We're currently on pace to have a near average number of rainy days this month, with the average being 11. And we were nearly an inch below average going into this morning, a single thunderstorm won't suddenly flip us to a wet pattern. Otherwise we could say that a 50 inch snowstorm in an otherwise snowless February would mean that the month was snowy.

      Delete
  36. I did not see one forecaster even mention the possibility of the MAJOR storm we had over night on the 6 or 11 broadcasts. You would think there would be at least some warning with the ferocious nature of the thunderstorms last night. Disappointed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Surprise, weather sometimes happens without any way to predict it.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 18, 2015 at 3:19 PM

      What caused that storm? No daytime heating creating instability. No lake breeze boundary. Just the push of the hot, humid air from the S/SE into what is left of the dome of high pressure from Wed-Thurs?

      Delete
    3. It was an "instability axis" according to the NWS. I'm guessing it was tied to the warm front that pushed through overnight.

      Delete
    4. Hey Carol, like i said before,shut up!

      Delete
    5. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 22, 2015 at 4:47 PM

      Gotcha.

      Delete
    6. Someone up here told me to shut up...lol that's like telling a wildfire to chill out.

      Delete
  37. Well you can make excuses for them but that was one of the most dangerous storms I have seen and not one mention of a possibility of it happening. I now see comments on twitter about the possibility tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not an excuse, it's the truth. There was literally no way to tell that such a thing would happen until a few hours beforehand. Forecasters aren't prophets, they can't just magically "know" that something will happen without any explicit signals. And there were no explicit signals here. None.

      Delete
    2. They have all this high tech equipment but the best they can do is guess?I think they need to get their asses out of the newsrooom and go see what the weather outside looks like.And Carol you are right,they are not prophets,they are not even close most times on the weather picture.Case in point,Wroc weather future cast has it being in the 80's most of the week while everyone else including the national weather service is calling on middle 70's for the week.As far as extended forecasts are concerned they might as well not have them,never the same forecast from one day to the next so what's the point of doing them?

      Delete
    3. If they got out of the news room and looked at the sky that afternoon, how would that help them tell you what was going to take place at 4 AM?

      Get yourself a kiddie pool and about 30 ping pong balls. Paint 5 balls black and leave the rest white. Fill the pool with water, throw in the balls and stir vigorously. Then I want you to tell me where the 5 black balls will be in the pool 5 minutes later.

      Maybe not the best analogy but that is pretty much what you seem not to be very impressed with as far as forecasting the FUTURE weather.

      Delete
    4. Lordy lordy lordy...

      "They have all this high tech equipment but the best they can do is guess?"
      Educated guessing that verifies way more often than not. Way better than any of us can do. It still can't be perfect all of the time.

      "I think they need to get their asses out of the newsrooom and go see what the weather outside looks like."
      Completely useless when you're trying to plan a whole week.

      "they are not even close most times on the weather picture."
      I want you to sift through the past 90 days of forecasts and count the ones that were way off. You might learn a thing or two.

      "Wroc weather future cast has it being in the 80's most of the week while everyone else including the national weather service is calling on middle 70's for the week."
      The NWS has two days in the upper 70s. Ch 13 has just one. Ch 10 has every day in the 80s. Only TWC and Crackuweather have all or most of next week in the 70s, and those are both national outlets whose local forecasts are automated. None of that matters anyway, because the practical difference between 75 and 80 is basically zero.

      "As far as extended forecasts are concerned they might as well not have them,never the same forecast from one day to the next so what's the point of doing them?"
      Because people need to know the big picture several days in advance. Not knowing the exact details doesn't make it useless, you can still make plans around knowing the uncertain possibilities. Now I have a question for you: if the forecasts are so useless then why are you reading them? Perhaps it's because having tentative information is much better than having no information. Think about it.

      Delete
  38. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1437265947177

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hey something new. A flash flood watch in effect fro Heavy rain tomorrow. The wet rainy summer goes on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey i don't know about you but I've spent most of the days for each of the last 3 weekends outdoors and haven't gotten wet once! Probably not getting wet today either. A lot of our rain is coming at night so minimal impact. Maybe wet on the rain gauge but not wet for outdoor activities!

      Delete
  40. Maybe if we complain a few more times we'll see Mother Nature reopen her customer service department. Also: reminder that our meteorological summer sees more precipitation on average than any other season.

    ReplyDelete
  41. SPC now has our region near the edge of the Enhanced Risk area:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.gif?1437333494099

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe you should shut up!

      Delete
  42. I'm ascared. It's going to get nasty.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Stacey did not seem that concerned on her forecast tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Nice that we missed the rain for a change yesterday. Looks like we may have a whole week without rain, Wow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If your expectation for a good summer week is to not have any rain the entire week then you need to go live in the desert. Most places in the US get rain once if not multiple times per week in the summer. I bet you are a blast at parties.

      Delete
    2. Anon 845---we've had 3 dry weekends in a row. Not really sure what there is to complain or be sarcastic about.

      Delete
  45. http://psychcentral.com/lib/how-to-relinquish-unrealistic-expectations/

    ReplyDelete
  46. Does anyone know what is happening with Scott? I am really worried things are not good for him?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. https://twitter.com/scotthetsko/status/623665793000177664

      He's been healthy enough to go on social media, but the tone of his FB post seems pretty concerning.

      Delete
  47. Three days next week are currently forecasted to be at or near 90. Bold prediction: all of them top out at exactly 89 degrees -_-

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 25, 2015 at 3:38 PM

      Well, I certainly hope so.

      Delete
  48. What happened. It was supposed to be sunny and warm today. Cloudy, rain and cool right now.

    ReplyDelete
  49. So, were going to be in the 80's today with a passing thunder storm and not an all day rain?Funny as i sit here with temps in the mid 60's,gray skies and a steady rain falling that i seem to think the local weathermen suck about as much as they can.Why don't they just fire all of them and put the weather channel forecast up instead?Couldn't do any worst then these losers do and just think of all the money the stations could make selling the worthless weather equipment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It happened just as news 8 said it would. Rainy in the morning and then it would clear up and heat up by the PM. Is comprehension not your strong suit or do you just like to make up things to complain about.

      Marcy the Marvelous Mule

      Delete
  50. Meanwhile at 2pm EDT, the airport is sitting pretty at 80 degrees, with at least a few more hours of heating left. And we've been dry since mid morning. Good job anon, way to embarrass yourself yet again :)

    ReplyDelete
  51. We will not have a heat wave this week.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Yeah. 1 day, maybe 2 of 90 which is ok with me.

    ReplyDelete
  53. They say perfection is impossible, but then we get days like today...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh it's possible. I see it in the mirror every time I look in it!

      Delete
  54. http://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/122/187/1187122.gif

    ReplyDelete
  55. One lonely little pile of snow still remains near the Central Terminal in Buffalo:

    http://www.wgrz.com/story/weather/2015/07/27/8-months-after-it-was-piled-there-snow-from-monster-storm-can-still-be-found-near-central-terminal/30741259/

    Meanwhile KBUF hit 89 today, as did KROC. I don't think the barrier keeping us from 90 will last through tomorrow though.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 29, 2015 at 12:35 PM

    I have a new saying: Never trust a trough.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 29, 2015 at 1:23 PM

    Looks like we are back to our slightly cooler than normal pattern for awhile after this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Any rainy again!!! Sucks.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Rained for a whole hour oh woe is us. I'm sure it ruined everyone's day.

    ReplyDelete
  60. The last few weeks have felt like summer!! Loved the HEAT.....next week I see 71 ? I hope the cooler pattern does not last.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldJuly 31, 2015 at 6:58 PM

      It will last until at least mid-August…probably beyond.

      Delete
    2. The ensemble means wager that we return to near average for the 10-15 day period.

      Delete
    3. DJD is back to complain, yay!

      Delete
    4. STFU and get out of your mom's basement already.....low life.

      Delete
    5. Getting mad at the computer screen is a waste of energy.

      Delete
    6. Responding to a comment that was not directed at you is a 'waste of energy'.......Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene....lmfao

      Delete
  61. Days are getting noticeably shorter. Soon it will be football and fall foliage peeping time. I can't wait. In fact, my pant legs got 3.5 inches shorter as I typed that.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Weenie tingle is a perfectly normal response to fall being in sight. I've been afflicted since I started reading into the still developing El Nino.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 4, 2015 at 9:39 AM

    El Ninos tend to produce nice, warm fall seasons, correct? What is the latest on the development of an El Nino? 'Tis August…so we can start to form some early pre dictionary outlooks :-0

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 4, 2015 at 9:40 AM

      I had some weenie tingle too…but I put some cream on it. All set now.

      Delete
    2. "El Ninos tend to produce nice, warm fall seasons, correct?"

      Quite the opposite actually. El Ninos tend to produce cooler than average temps in the fall, especially during October. I actually wouldn't be completely surprised if this winter pulled a head fake in November and delivered some bouts of cold and snow, duping everyone into thinking we're off to the races before flipping to mild in December. It's the winter season that favors above average temps more often than not, with December being the mildest month on average.

      "What is the latest on the development of an El Nino?"

      All of the regions are near or above +1.0C. A sizable Kelvin Wave is on the way which should cause significant additional warming this fall. We're going to hear comparisons to the Super Nino of 1997, but this event is noticeably different from that one (cooler eastern regions, warmer western ones). Model projections still have a mostly basin-wide event, much unlike the extreme east-based configuration that 1997 had.

      "'Tis August…so we can start to form some early pre dictionary outlooks :-0"

      I'm still in the camp of the N.Pac warm pool preventing a wall-to-wall torch but also not asserting itself nearly as much as the past few seasons. Zonal flow furnace patterns are going to happen at least occasionally, it's all but inevitable with a strong Nino. The basin-wide look in the seasonal models would allow the warm pool to assert itself more strongly than with a classic east-based event, however. Some seasonal models have us contending with periods of negative EPO once again, no doubt resulting from the combo of a basin-wide Nino and the raging warm pool. These would probably occur more intermittently among stretches of positive EPO, unlike recent winters.

      "I had some weenie tingle too…but I put some cream on it. All set now."

      You might want to get that checked out...

      Delete
    3. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 4, 2015 at 6:19 PM

      Great info, thanks. I musta been thinking about a La Nina fall (?)…still a novice in many of these areas, though I tend to label myself as a temperature trender, more interested in that facet of climatic trends (probably because they are much easier to predict than precipitation).

      So a battle between the the N. Pacific warm pool, which generates a High just inland if I am not mistaken, will interrupt the traditionally dominant zonal flow of an El Nino winter. Hmmm. Wonder how that will turn out…perhaps bout of snow and cold with 40+ in between?

      In other news, I was giggling with a cocktail in hand with some pool effect occurring in my backyard tonight…rain-cooled air over the 80 F pool water, causing some heat rising and cooling and condensing into mini clouds. Cool.

      Delete
    4. Maybe if we get a super early season arctic shot you'll get a mini pool effect snowstorm, complete with mini snowmobilers, mini traffic accidents and mini anons complaining that it's not "real snow."

      Delete
    5. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 5, 2015 at 8:25 PM

      "Carol never saw this coming…foot long wieners!!!…why do we even have meteorologists?!?; they never predicted this pool effect!…Hey CCCC, do you think it will rain on April 19 at 7:37pm because my cousin's former roommate is flying in from Saskatchewan…MARK IT DOWN…take it to the bank…KW said he was getting his snowmaking machine out…JN is an alarmist…GJ has a new tie…"

      Delete
  64. I'm hoping the southern jet is juiced up and we get a few whopper winter storms for that guy who says we always get shafted. I personally dread winters when the snow continuously melts after being put down. Takes away my winter activities. But I will enjoy it because it's the only weather I got .. as Bastardi tells it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a rather small sample size, but from what I've gathered so far it would appear that winters with strong El Ninos are among the best for getting big storms around here. Total seasonal snowfall is a huge tossup though, probably due to increased dependence upon synoptic storms to get our snow. The snowier winters tend to have high latitude blocking, especially in the North Atlantic. Speaking of which, I think we're going to need the NAO to cooperate at least occasionally this season...we've been able to ride a stellar Pacific pattern to some good winters recently despite a crappy Atlantic, but we also haven't had a monster Nino trying to promote a zonal flow assault on the west coast. If the basin-wide configuration plays out like I believe it will then we should still get some help from the Pacific, but I can't see it being our exclusive meal ticket this time around.

      Delete
    2. I don't suppose we have a method for trying to predict the NAO? At least not seasonally?

      Delete
    3. Nothing reliable. It's been hypothesized that having a lot of warm water off of southern Greenland helps to promote a negative NAO, but that correlation isn't nearly as strong as the PDO/EPO relationship. Even the SAI isn't completely dependable, as last winter demonstrated. The near record amount of snowcover growth across Siberia was supposed to favor a negative NAO, but instead it was positive almost all winter. The AO is a tough one to nail down as well. Those two factors will be our biggest wildcards once the fate of El Nino and the PDO have been determined.

      Delete
  65. I'll say this much though: both the NAO and the AO were very negative in July relative to average values, some of the most negative values on record in fact. I've seen assertions that when those values are this negative in July, they correspond to negative ones in the winter as well. I have yet to see any scientific rationale behind what might cause that so I'm not willing to trust it completely, but it could toss another wrench into the standard "El Nino = warm winter" idea that we would normally see.

    I sort of resent that fact that we still have such a long road ahead...

    ReplyDelete
  66. I looked into the supposed summertime AO correlation, and I now trust it even less than before. There's a correlation for sure, but it's weak at best. I can only assume the same for the NAO.

    ReplyDelete
  67. What happened to the beautiful sunny day we were supposed to have today???? It was cloudy all day long.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IDK about any of the local forecasts but the NWS never forecasted a sunny day yesterday. It was still a decent day regardless.

      Delete
  68. The updated Euro seasonal run came in yesterday. Still has a negative EPO for winter with above average precip running up the eastern seaboard. Also weakens the N.Pac warm pool noticeably less than the other seasonals. Still waiting on NMME to update.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Hope the heavy rain stays away from Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Thankfully we have enough dry soil to absorb most of the rainfall. Very unlikely that we dodge it entirely.

    ReplyDelete
  71. It has been so nice only cutting the grass once per week.

    ReplyDelete
  72. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1439224509680

    ReplyDelete
  73. We've gotten 2.21 inches of rain so far in a span of 9 hours. Ordinarily that would be enough for a new daily record, but this date's 3.31 inch milestone is probably safe for a long time to come.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Buffalo barely got anything as well as Syracuse. We seem to be the bullseye for rain all the time. If its snow it is usually not the case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we're the bullseye for rain all the time then explain this:

      http://directory.nyskiblog.com/file/n5001463/New-York-State-Annual-Average-Precipitation.jpg

      "If its snow it is usually not the case."

      We shouldn't expect it to be. No one anywhere should.

      Delete
  75. Almost 4 inches of water in my rain gauge in Lyons. Two inches of that fell in about an hours time yesterday afternoon around 5 o'clock.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Accuweather released an early forecast for fall and winter today:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-us-fall-forecast-winter-preview/51471589

    I haven't been looking too much into the upcoming fall so I don't have an opinion there. Their winter outlook is pretty close to my current thoughts, at least as it pertains to the eastern states. I would've laid out the potential for at least one extended mild period though.

    The NMME and JAMSTEC both updated recently. The latter resembles the seasonal Euro for winter, with the N.Pac still very warm and favoring a negative EPO. The former is somewhat milder with a more diminished warm pool compared to the latter, but has stronger hints of an active coastal storm track. Neither model suggests much in the way of extreme cold or warmth overall, at least on a monthly time scale. Bear in mind that monthly/seasonal models rarely have a completely accurate handle on things until about 2-4 weeks in advance. The most we can hope to glean from them right now is a vague set of ideas.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Just read where the El Nino is predicted to possibly the strongest ever. Stronger than it was in 1997. If that is the case does that mean we would have mild temperatures and less snow this winter?

    ReplyDelete
  78. Not good for snow lovers if it is a strong El Nino. This means a mild winter with below normal snowfall. Since they are predicating the strongest El Nino ever it could be the worst winter ever if you like snow and cold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wouldn't be leaving mini essays all over the place in these comments if it really was as simple as you're implying.

      Delete
  79. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 13, 2015 at 9:29 PM

    As C4 has been saying, there is a strongly negative EPO likely to be a factor…which has led to our past two harsh winters…in keeping the El Nino in check. 1997 was a year where there was a strong El Nino but not a negative EPO to keep the El Nino from over influencing the weather, at least east of the Mississippi.

    ReplyDelete

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