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Friday, August 14

DOG DAYS RETURN

We've seen a few brief periods of hot and humid weather so far this summer but for the most part, it's been a relatively comfortable few months.

August is notorious for producing some very hot and humid weather and it looks like we have plenty over the next several days as the large scale pattern changes across the Northeast.

High pressure will set up over the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and a cold front will slowly approach from the west. The flow around the high and ahead of the front will tap into some very warm and humid air currently to our south and bring in north into the region.



In fact by Sunday and Monday, many locations could be flirting with that 90 degree mark and depending on how much sun we see, some locations will climb into the lower 90s. Along with the heat, humidity levels will be ramping up making it feel even hotter.

Here's where the forecast gets a bit tricky. A few days ago, forecast models were showing a pretty substantial cooling trend by the middle of next week but latest trends show only some minor cooling with temperatures quickly heating up again by the middle of next week. Long range signals suggest that this hot and humid pattern could stick around for quite some time. Here's the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing above average temperatures in the Northeast through the end of the month.



Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

30 comments:

  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EU8L0-RkDYU

    I sort of resent the fact that I'm about to make yet another post about El Nino and the upcoming winter, especially in light of this thread, but...here's what the legendary Don Paul had to say about it on his blog:

    "There are quite a number of other variables in the atmosphere and in the interface between the Pacific surface and the atmosphere which can change the impacts of even an unusually strong el nino. While odds favor a dent being made in the terrible CA drought by Pacific storms, a strong el nino in the winter of 1965-66 did not produce that heavy rainfall. And, while odds favor milder temperatures in the north central and NE U.S. during a strong el nino, there are other oscillations over both the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic which can lessen those impacts, too. At this time, I would say probabilities of a milder winter this coming season than during the last 2 very harsh winters are higher, but far from conclusively high."

    I strongly advise keeping the first statement in mind as the generic "El Nino means warm for sure" assertions inevitably emerge over the next few months. I've already seen one as of yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 14, 2015 at 7:29 PM

    AccuNever already up to no good:

    http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/08/syracuse_forecast_another_warm_fall_followed_by_mild_winter.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jack Boston tripped up with the very first quote of his in that article...

      "The El Niño in the fall tends to bring the Northeast milder than normal weather."

      ...which flies completely in the face of the following analog composite that I threw together just now:

      http://imgur.com/RNSPZpX

      Granted that isn't every El Nino there ever was, just the moderate/strong ones that came to mind as I went along. But it clearly shows that the fall season with a pronounced El Nino tends to be COLDER than average. The monthly breakdown averages colder than normal for September and October, with near normal for November. This isn't to say that the fall will progress like that, I'm just pointing out the major error in Boston's assertion. Then there's this from the article...

      "The national Climate Prediction Center said today that the Northeast had less-than-normal precipitation during strong El Niños, including those in 1965-1966 and 1982-1983."

      ...which is almost entirely wrong, as illustrated by the following composites:

      http://imgur.com/2GawhSC
      http://imgur.com/28HCzaE
      http://imgur.com/mfXWkMM

      1982-1983 was BARELY drier than average, you can almost call it near average actually. Including the moderate El Ninos from the first composite I posted yields a similar picture, but the claim here pertains to strong events, so I took the moderate ones out. All six of the strong events since 1950 are in there.

      "While no official winter forecast has been issued, Boston said it's likely that this El Niño, which might become the strongest ever recorded, will temper winter temperatures in the northern half of the country."

      All I can say to that is "maybe." Some strong events were met with extended periods of blocking and cold temperatures. 1957-58 and 1965-66 were two such winters. And let's not forget the unusual N.Pac warmth, which I may or may not have mentioned about 743 times by now.

      The following article with Paul Pastelok's analysis is much better IMO:

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-us-fall-forecast-winter-preview/51471589

      I do agree with both Pastelok and Boston that this winter will be less cold than the previous two, but that's not saying much since they were both ridiculously cold.

      Delete
  3. I also want to ease any concerns our resident winter lovers might have about a 1997-98 redux:

    -This El Nino looks much less hostile to cold than that one was.
    -That winter still had near average snowfall with several good storms, thanks in large part to a hyperactive southern jet.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Some insane local rain totals last night:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

    KBUF received nearly an entire month's worth of rainfall in a span of just three hours. And how about 7.70 inches in Pendleton. That's kind of really ridiculous.

    ReplyDelete
  5. In one corner, we have the expert oversimplifiers of Team Torchageddon. In the other corner, we have...this:

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OLD_FARMERS_ALMANAC?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-08-15-12-01-46

    Get your popcorn ready.

    ReplyDelete
  6. So News 8 and 10 have the low for Thursday (Thurs night into Friday morning) as 71 while 13 and the Weather channel have it as 58. That's a big difference in how humid Thursday is supposed to be. What gives?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm more concerned about Saturday night...

      http://imgur.com/eHfpIiU

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    2. That a screenshot from Ch 10 btw...looks like ol' KW finally hopped on the AGW bandwagon /s

      Delete
    3. HA! That's awesome.

      Delete
  7. When did Scott change his Twitter pic? I hope it was after the 14th because I hate being a copycat.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Some more Don Paul musings about El Nino and winter:

    "Models almost universally keep El Nino strong into the winter, with some weakening beginning mid or late winter, but with el nino continuing through the winter. If you scroll back through this thread to the previous thread, you’ll see that even a strong el nino does not present a lock for a milder winter for us. A strong el nino increases those probabilities, but there has been a notable exception or 2."

    "My own thoughts are somewhat uncertain on the impact of el nino, with some help a couple of weeks ago from Jeff Masters in putting many of the variables together. However, if el nino becomes exceptionally strong I would still favor warmer than average temperatures for the N Central and NE US at least in the first half of winter. As el nino begins to lessen in amplitude in virtually all models by mid/late winter, its impact on temperatures would likely lessen and the east coast might become a bowling alley for coastal storms. A very strong el nino remains a potent forcing mechanism. I’m not planning on betting part of my 401k on this winter, but we have not had a truly strong el nino since 97-98. Part of the difference this time around are the SSTs in the NE Pacific now vs then. So, that variable remains a potential horsefly in the ointment."

    I want to add once again that the current El Nino is on pace to configure itself much differently for the winter than 1997-98 did, and is in fact already much differently configured. Also I'm well aware of the irony of this comment in light of my previous one.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 19, 2015 at 6:47 AM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VNXwsr-s3s&feature=youtu.be

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There's only one real disagreement I have here, and it pertains to the following:

      http://imgur.com/XyBu92T

      This is the SST difference between July of this year and July 1997 (August isn't available on the ESRL analog site yet). The video asserts that the current Nino bears strong resemblances to the 1997-98 event, but the composite shows a cooler east and a warmer west...differences generally between 0.5 and 1 degree C, which are significant for ENSO. The difference in the east region has certainly widened since July, as this event has experienced cooling in that area while the 1997-98 event warmed very slightly. The differences in the N.Pac are even more drastic, but that may be more of a cosmetic difference than anything right now. It would be far more than cosmetic if the seasonal models are correct in keeping the warm pool mostly intact, since it was nearly gone by the time winter came in 1997.

      Not a bad video overall though.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 19, 2015 at 6:14 PM

      He is a meteorologist in the Glens Falls area, and lives in Indian Lake. ilsnow.com is basically a weather website for snowmobiling. He seems to be decent, but who am I to judge? Until the October Siberian snowpack numbers come in, I don't think we can predict what this winter will bring with much accuracy.

      Delete
    3. Even the near record Siberian snowcover growth last year failed to be an accurate indicator. It was supposed to promote a strongly negative AO, which never came close to happening.

      How many licks will it take to produce reliable seasonal forecasts? The world may never know...

      Delete
  10. Anyone know the timing for the bad weather tomorrow and is it going to be heavy rain with real bad thunderstorms?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

      "IN ALL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS US..WITH ADDED LIFT FROM THE WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEVELOPING 110 KNOT SOUTH-NORTH 250 HPA JET OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER TOWARDS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS ADDED DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS INCORPORATED INTO THE STORMS. WHILE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ESPECIALLY BEAR WATCHING FOR FLOODING RAINS.

      AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS WILL END FORM WEST TO EAST. A WET GROUND AND STILL MODEST DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WITHIN THE WEATHER GRIDS."

      Severe risk looks very low right now:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1440036987545

      Delete
  11. In the shorter term..does that 8-14 day temp outlook by NOAA seem to have any merit for our area??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4 out of 5 confidence for that period, so merit there is.

      Delete
  12. So does late afternoon look like a washout on the east side of Monroe County?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 20, 2015 at 8:48 PM

    Uh oh. Got some pool effect going on again. Water temp = 81 F. Air temp = 69 F … and dry.

    ReplyDelete
  14. We always miss out on the pool effect in Henrietta.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 22, 2015 at 11:21 AM

    You guys sometimes get some from Buffalo-area pools.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But we never get the BIG stuff that they get. Why do we never get BIG pool effect? Rochester never gets BIG pool effect.

      Delete
  16. We have a new member to add for Team Icebox in the winter forecast challenge. Shocker of all shockers, it's Joe Bastardi, whose top three analogs just conveniently happen to be three of the coldest and snowiest Nino winters on record. It's going to take until the Sun expands and swallows our planet for that man to finally predict a mild winter.

    I have to make a correction to that long response I left under the syracuse.com article. Turns out that I didn't refine the precipitation analog maps enough, so I made some scaling adjustments to reveal that 1965-66 and 1982-83 were in fact pretty dry. A blend of all strong Nino winters still paints near to above average precipitation across all but the far west parts of the Northeast, even with the adjustments, so that part still stands along with the rest of the post.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not only is that his natural bias..I think he painted himself into a corner with the audience he has attracted over the years. He has to find a way to go cold and snowy or the fan boys will get restless. And I say that liking the guy.

      Delete
    2. Oh the weenie freakout that would ensue if he predicted a mild winter. There would be no survivors. And I'm pretty sure the actual winter would end up being about 10F above average too.

      Delete

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