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Tuesday, August 25

NOT MUCH SUMMER THIS SUMMER

It's not your imagination. We have seen our fair share of cool, wet weather this summer. The large scale pattern has featured a large ridge of high pressure across the Western and Central U.S. and a trough of low pressure over the Northeast for the past few months. This has led to a record setting wildfire season over the Pacific Northwest while our rainfall has been well above average.

Temperature-wise, we've only seen a handful of those hot, humid days. Since May, Rochester has officially recorded just three 90 degree days, compared to the average of nine. Last summer wasn't much different with just three days at or above 90.



Good news though for those wanting some more summer weather! Although we're dealing with the fall-like conditions this week, long range signals point toward another stretch of some very warm and humid weather by the end of August and continuing into the first part of September.

This is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calling for well above average temperatures across the Northeast by the end of the month:


Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

41 comments:

  1. June temp departure: -0.3
    July temp departure: +0.1
    August temp departure to date: +0.6

    So the theme has been a lack of classic summer heat, not a cool and clammy non-summer. Just mentioning before the hyperbole brigade shows up. The number of heavy precipitation events we've had definitely seems very unusual.

    If we're going to have another stretch of very warm and humid weather then I personally prefer it to be the last until next summer. I'll tolerate such conditions to a point, and that point is just about here. Average temps are about to start declining precipitously and I'm starting to get a bad case of the cold season itch.

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  2. I think the Farmer's Almanac might take the cake in regards to weenie forecasts...

    http://farmersalmanac.com/press-releases/2015/08/23/say-it-aint-snow-farmers-almanac-predicts-another-unseasonably-cold-winter-on-tap/

    This part especially:

    " 'The winter of 2015–2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures,' reveals Caleb Weatherbee, the Farmers’ Almanac’s weather prognosticator, adding, 'the term ‘déjà vu’ comes to mind.' "

    Someone clearly doesn't believe in the power of strong ENSO events. Or in science of any kind. And I love that the resident weather person picked Weatherbee as a pseudonym, like he's trying to appeal to preschoolers or something. I'd actually rather put my trust in a preschooler's forecast, at least they won't keep their BS method hidden from the public. Hey, I wonder if they'll predict a Superbowl Superstorm like they did a few years back. Remember that? And it sold a bajillion copies of their rag and brought them all sorts of attention and then the Superbowl came and NOTHING HAPPENED. Oh, but the "frigid East" prediction they make EVERY SINGLE YEAR managed to work out...something something broken clock. Wow I think I figured out their Supar Sekrit Forecasting Formula: just predict the harshest weather in the most densely populated half of the country every time, with minor but noticeable pseudorandom variations. If I were me which I probably am, then I would say that they do it that way so that the most hype applies to the most people and more copies of their book will sell...but what do I know, I can't make forecasts 15 years in advance with only a telescope and a rusty unicycle like they can ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  3. I agree with hoping any heat and humidity be the last of the season. Watching a forecast this morning, the individual was showing temps in the mid 70's and said the temperatures should improve by the end of next week. Improve?! Mid 70's seems optimal for a majority of people. Why is an increase into the mid 80's an improvement? I'm sure it is to some, but I can't believe most like it hot and sticky for long stretches.
    Why do they always communicate to that smaller demographic that likes the extreme on the high end ? Do they ever say dropping into the 20's is an improvement from the mid 30's for the small group of people wanting that?

    It doesn't matter a bit in the end. But it grinds my gears sometimes.

    Perhaps the Farmers Almanac should have a warning sticker: For entertainment purposes only.

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  4. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 28, 2015 at 10:13 AM

      Very interesting read. I should have read this before I posted my comment above, because it looks like the eastern-based El Nino is fading a bit. Would the Atlantic respond so quickly with the allowance of hurricanes to develop? I suppose that the El Nino impact on hurricanes in this case has to do with wind, not water or temperature, so the impact can be immediate. In any case, this article proves once again that early winter outlooks this time of year are nothing but speculation and guesswork…particularly in a year where El Nino seems to be unpredictable.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 28, 2015 at 10:14 AM

      My comment BELOW, I mean.

      Delete
  5. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 28, 2015 at 9:58 AM

    All of a sudden, we have several tropical storms popping up in the Caribbean. Does this signify a weakening of the El Nino, which is known for creating upper level winds and shearing the tops of t-storms off before they amplify into hurricanes?

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    Replies
    1. There's still plenty of shear in the Atlantic right now. Danny was torn to shreds once it got far enough west, and Erika has been facing similar treatment. The difference is that Erika is expected to survive the trip to Florida as a tropical storm.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldAugust 28, 2015 at 12:50 PM

      Yep, just read about the breakdown of Erika on another weather website. Much to the dismay of the mass media, who desperately wants to cover some other disaster besides the Republican nomination process.

      Delete
    3. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion, except the train is wearing a hideous blond wig and doesn't allow Mexicans on board.

      Delete
  6. Welcome to the first day of meteorological fall folks. Sure doesn't feel like fall though, and won't for at least another week.

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  7. This next 4 months is my favorite time of year. The fall colors, the first frost and snowfall. I hope us snow lovers are not disappointed with this winter with a strong El Nino. Time will tell.

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    Replies
    1. Don't forget the crisp smell of fireplaces all around the neighborhood. And the lack of obnoxious insects. And FOOTBALL!!! Definitely my favorite time of the year too, with an honorable mention to the three month period that follows.

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  8. I'll say this much: if you want consistent deep winter from December through February, then you're probably gonna have a bad time. If you want a cold and snowy December then you're probably gonna have an even worse time. But if you're pining for a greater than average chance of whopper storms, willing to accept a greater than average risk for disappointment, and also willing to be patient while December torches, then you'll probably be okay.

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  9. Do we torch right through December or is there a cold month in there?

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    Replies
    1. If we do have a cold month before December then it's most likely to be October. I also wouldn't be surprised if November brought some winter fun, and I wouldn't even be surprised if the otherwise mild December produced a rogue snowstorm or two. There's a fair chance (i.e. at least 30%) that we end up with average/above average snowfall numbers in any given month this winter even if the month lacks deep/consistent cold, or even frequent snowfalls. But the historical analogs strongly favor a mild December even with the N.Pac warm pool raging on. They also suggest a greater potential for large storms at any point in the winter. 1997-98 was a hideous winter for cold with its extreme east-based super Nino, but several major snowstorms helped push snowfall to near average. 1965-66 and 1991-92 were strong Ninos that coupled + temp departures with + snowfall departures. 1972-73 was another mild strong Nino winter that was on pace for average snowfall until March. Really the only strong Nino winter that truly sucked in the snow department was 1982-83, the only one since 1950 that failed to produce any major storms, and one that was also very dry.

      I know this rambled on way past the scope of your question, but I felt like elaborating on my earlier post. To answer in a word: probably.

      Delete
  10. The big kicker is going to be if the NWS spotters at KROC completed re-training for how to report accurate snow measurements... With our luck, they all played hooky that day.

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    Replies
    1. I still assert that they under-measured at least 4 storms from 12/12 onward, including the blizzard in 03/14.

      Delete
  11. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 7, 2015 at 10:16 AM

    What a stretch of warmth we are in. The northern jet is so far north right now, it cannot influence our weather…for a few more days at least. High pressure to the east dominates...

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  12. Been awhile since we had a stretch of this much heat lasting this long. July 2013 is the last time I can think of, we spent nearly a week straight in the upper 80s to mid 90s during the middle of that month.

    On the flip side, historical average highs will be in the low 70s by this weekend...

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  13. A) How long ago did RochesterHomepage.net become RochesterFirst.com ?
    B) Is it me or is there no longer a link to this blog?
    C) Are they going to kill off the blog? (Completely).

    I have to admit. I probably watch less than an hour of TV a week. So I almost never catch the news. For all I know this happened months ago.

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    Replies
    1. There's still a link to the blog, just click Sections and you'll see it under the Weather category. I don't know exactly when the domain name change occurred, but I think it was pretty recent.

      Delete
  14. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 8, 2015 at 9:54 PM

    Got some differing viewpoints out there on this weekend's weather…the trough setup returns once again and bringing some uncertainty / instability with it…my oh my, how stubborn this pattern is. Will this set up battle it out with El Nino for dominance this winter…???

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    Replies
    1. We haven't really had a prolonged trough pattern for awhile though.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 10, 2015 at 8:47 PM

      Haven't we had a trough setup for most of the past two years?

      Delete
    3. I'm talking in terms of weeks. We haven't had a prolonged trough in several weeks.

      Delete
    4. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 11, 2015 at 6:23 AM

      Gotcha.

      Delete
  15. http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/09/media/weather-channel-sam-champion/

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  16. 18z GFS!? Hmmmm, looks interesting beyond 7 days. Then again, it's beyond 7 days.

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    Replies
    1. The end of that run actually put a few snowflakes in the highest elevations of the Southern Tier, at least on the p-type maps from Tropical Tidbits. But as you mentioned...long range GFS. The ensembles don't like the thought of it getting nearly cold enough for that to happen.

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  17. Looks like an indoor weekend. Rainy and cool. Yuck.

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  18. I'll take a few days of cool and rainy after two weeks of hot and sticky.

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  19. Hamlin has received 3.5" of rain since yesterday morning thanks to lake enhancement. This would have been a big time snow produced in January. I cant wait.

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    Replies
    1. We'd probably be on the warm side of it in January and have gotten 3.5" of 34 degree rain. We would be beside ourselves.. LOL!

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    2. If that exact setup happened in January then we probably would've had several hours of rain followed by several hours of snow, with significant snow amounts for all. But that's just a lazy hypothetical.

      Delete
  20. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 13, 2015 at 7:22 PM

    Was at camp yesterday and today, eastern Oswego Co. We were riding the frontal boundary all day. Went from almost partly sunny to drizzle to heavy rain back to drizzle back to dry several times during the day. On the way there, we could see the frontal boundary just to our south and east before drove under it. Neat to experience.

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  21. Note to mother nature. Many of us love winter fun, but please give us a long dry and fairly mild fall. Then on 12/1 turn on cold and snow please!

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  22. At my house in North Hamlin we ended up just shy of 4.25" of rain for the weekend. We are lucky we had quite a dry spell before that. The ground soaked up most of it with no problem.

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  23. mid 80's all week looks like...Sorry folks, NBD on any storms this week!

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  24. I hope I don't forget what a cloud looks like by the weekend.

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  25. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 15, 2015 at 9:18 PM

    I am giddy…the NBD guy is back :-)))

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