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Tuesday, September 15

'Tis the Season (Leaf Peeping Season)

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

No, not for Christmas. Not even for snow. We're now getting into leaf peeping season, for all you Fall lovers out there. The I Love NY website issues weekly Fall foliage updates, and this week's is just starting to show some leaves just beginning to change color in the Catskills, highest peaks in the Adirondacks, and the Tug Hill Plateau. According to Accuweather (no, I'm not a leaf expert), the perfect autumn weather conditions for brilliant Fall colors is warm days, cool nights (without frost) and abundant sunshine. If this week's weather is any indication, colors will be vibrant this Fall! Time will tell...

33 comments:

  1. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 15, 2015 at 9:20 PM

    For me, the most beautiful time is the few weeks after the leaves fall off…the ground in wooded areas is a brilliant blanket of colors, and with nothing obstructing the view, one can see for a way into the forest.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Late October through New Years is almost always pure bliss for me.

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  3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/09/17/cold-weather-person-or-hot-weather-lover-this-map-shows-where-you-belong/

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  4. Do we think we are done with air conditioning for the year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unless we get some very anomalous ridging that the ensembles don't see at the moment then I'd say we are.

      Delete
  5. This next stretch of weather is my absolute favorite of the year. It's so much nicer than that late march early April mud.

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  6. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 21, 2015 at 9:01 PM

    My favorite months, in order: 1. October 2. April 3. November 4. September 5. February 6. January 7. August 8. March 9. May 10. July 11. June 12. July

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 22, 2015 at 6:25 AM

      Hot. Humid. Insects. Tourists. Nah.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 23, 2015 at 4:57 PM

      SOAB…I just realized I had July twice…and why you said I really don't like July. Man, I am stupid. December is #10.

      Delete
  7. Wow. Picture perfect weather for the next 2 weeks. No rain and just sun. Love it. Will this be our winter due to strong El Nino????

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 22, 2015 at 6:24 AM

      I'll let CCCCCCCCCCCCCC confirm this, but, based on the ensembles I looked at a week ago, it appears as though we are in an El Nino - induced zonal flow. The trough is pushed far north and we have dominant high pressure to our southwest. I believe the zonal flow is causing us to have light winds as this set up allows pressure systems/areas to stay far apart from each other. FWIK, I don't think what we are seeing now is indicative of our upcoming winter, but I am not an expert.

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    2. The warmth and dryness has definitely been El Nino driven. We've had a mean trough in the N.Pac since late August and it's been mitigating any threat for an Eastern trough. None of this necessarily indicates how the winter will turn out, and the expectation is that the mean N.Pac trough will eventually shift westward. How long that takes is anyone's guess right now. I will say that if the seasonal models are of any worth right now then we shouldn't have too many moisture issues this winter. Unfortunately the seasonal models are worth very little until we move past October. Still worth pointing out that above average precip running up the Eastern seaboard has been the most common look for several consecutive runs.

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  8. Agreed, the PNA is pretty much off the charts in negative territory, but teleconnections look to shift in October, with the exception of the MJO, which is non-existent at this point. It will be interesting to see what El Nino trumps this winter...

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  9. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 25, 2015 at 6:22 AM

    Yawn. This must be what weather blogs in So Cal are like...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "If we're lucky we might catch a few scattered clouds today."

      Delete
  10. Chris in Penfield, what's your secret for liking April so much? Because I hate April... Recreational snow is done, nuisance snow is common, cold rain, wet muddy ground, spring like sun and warmth can be illusive... Ugh.

    Help me.
    Andy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I second the motion to receive April enjoyment secrets.

      Delete
    2. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 28, 2015 at 8:02 PM

      Well, guys, here is the deal with April…I, too, used to be an April hater. However, after a long, snowy winter, April is the first month where one can regularly go outside and spend long periods time without being uncomfortable. In the woods, you can see the contour of the land well with no foliage present yet (undergrowth comes in late month). You get an occasional 70 F day, but many in the 50s with brilliant blue skies. April is also the first motorcycle ride, the greening of the grass, and an excitement to be outside again.

      Delete
  11. Here's my ranking:

    1) November
    2) December
    3) March
    4) October
    5) February
    6) January
    7) June
    8) September
    9) May
    10) July
    11) August
    12) Ramadan
    13) Afteryule
    14) Tevet
    15) Falgun
    16) April

    Also I doubt anyone cares, but the wallpaper on my G+ profile is me with a traffic cone on my head.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like warm and cold, anytime the Wx is conducive to doing something outdoors.

      So my favorites are; June, July, August, followed almost equally by December, January, February. September and October I love if dry and average to above temp(like we just had), May, November. March is a bubble month as it could be near the top of my list or the bottom. I like the potential for good snow in early March, but otherwise mid-March and beyond is nearly as undesirable as April. Once in a while spring arrives early and I enjoy April, but it seems many years it's mostly a month of misery that keeps me inside the most of any month. Even if April Wx is nice, the ground is usually a muddy mess which hinders outdoor enjoyment.

      Andy

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  12. December can be gloomy for me if it doesn't snow. Days are extremely short and looking at dead, brown stuff, in the limited daylight isn't much fun for me. Cool October and November are my favorite followed by any snowy winter month.

    Early spring does kind of grind my gears but I absolutely loath July and August if they are humid.

    Pretty messy and incomplete list : P

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  13. Some models are doing really whacky things with TD 11. Things such as the following:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015092812/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_40.png

    I think we all know what to think of this type of solution by now.

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  14. TD 11 is now Tropical Storm Joaquin, and on the 00z GFS it turns north and plows into south Jersey. NYC and coastal SNE receive tremendous rainfall amounts, with heavy totals across a large portion of western and central NY. There's a lot of spread in the model guidance but some of it is similar to the GFS. My interest is now slightly piqued, mostly in regards to the storm's possible impacts on NYC/SNE.

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    Replies
    1. I should add that it only deepens to around 1000mb on the GFS, nowhere close to that whacked-out HWRF depiction I posted earlier.

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  15. Too bad its not going to be snow. Rain sucks.

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  16. I wouldn't bellyache about not getting snow when we're not even halfway through fall yet.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Chris now in PenfieldSeptember 29, 2015 at 7:28 PM

    I think it is fairly safe to say that this winter will not be like the winters of 13-14, 14-15…perhaps not even 12-13. The way El Nino is influencing our weather now (minus this week), with it predicted to get stronger, I think a severe winter may be out of the question.

    That is the only prediction I am willing to make at this time.

    The PNA is going to make things interesting at times come January, February, and especially March (El Nino weakening).

    ReplyDelete
  18. A winter with wall to wall cold and snow will be very tough to achieve with any strong El Nino, but we can still get stretches of Atlantic blocking that introduce harsh patterns. I'd say the best example of this would be February 1958, our snowiest month on record. It was defined by a deeply negative NAO and prominently featured one of the most severe nor'easters on record. That storm impacted our region over the course of about 5 days, delivering well over 2 feet of snow along with frigid temps. Another example is January 1966...I don't think I need to go over that one but it may have included a rather well-known blizzard of local lore. February/March 1900 also fits the bill. Both of those months were cold and snowy, with the latter being our snowiest and 8th coldest March on record and producing the largest snowstorm in Rochester's history. And out of those strong El Ninos that didn't produce a harsh pattern, most still made interesting things happen in the snow department on occasion. So a long and consistently harsh winter is very likely off the table, but the possibility of full-tilt wintry fun times is not.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Meanwhile in ensemble land...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092918/gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_12.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092918/gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_16.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092918/gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092918/gfs-ens_mslpa_eus_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092918/gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_23.png

    A little less than half of that depicted rainfall is from tonight. And I'd say that residents the DelMarVa might be hoping and praying that the GFS doesn't verify...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_19.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092918/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_20.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By the way, the last link is just sustained wind speeds. Gusts in that area exceed 100mph on that run.

      Delete

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