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Sunday, December 13

El Niño in Full Force?

It appears our very strong El Niño is in full swing. Thanks in part to the NWS Buffalo  for some of these stats: as we know, the last 2 very strong El Niños occurred in 1982-1982 and 1997-1998. Ok. According to NWS BUF, Rochester had hit 70°+ only 8 times during the December through February since 1871. Two of the last 3 of those 70°+ days occurred in December, 2012, February, 1997 and December, 1982. 1997 and 1982 were both those very strong El Niño years. 1982-1983 season had 59" of snow, while 1997-1998 season had nearly 100". So, while there's no real correlation in the snowfall department, we are at least starrtjmg meteorological winter more like the snow-starved 1982 season...to be continued...

93 comments:

  1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 13, 2015 at 8:26 PM

    …however…did 1982-83 and 97-99 have the Siberian snowpack and +PDO? Don't those bode well for an eventual emergence of winter as El Nino starts (continues) to break down?

    ReplyDelete
  2. If anyone would like to new or revised predictions. Click on my name or:

    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ERPBMYbYkCS-IaXLaHHa3ufhQ0WLGvzyoACwuGQwPEU/viewform

    ...blizzard. Rochester. Mark it down. Anything else?

    As an aside. This winter is somewhat similar (as CCCC pointed out) to my recollection of '06-07. My first Roc winter. It was basically nothing until a modest ice storm around MLK day. Then we got to close to seasonal totals in about half a winter.

    ReplyDelete
  3. IDK about the exact Siberian snow cover numbers in 1982, but there was a large negative height anomaly across much of Siberia during November of that year, so there's an indicator that we didn't have the SAI in our corner that winter. We had mainly positive departures this November, with the exception being the far east. Refresher on the basics of the SAI:

    https://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/resize/blog-photos/Six_Step_Process.020-823x617.png

    ReplyDelete
  4. The hemispheric configuration during the past few months has much more closely resembled 2006 than either 1982 or 1997.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Myforecast" is showing a hi temp of ... 73 ... on Christmas Day. What???!!!

    Will make for easy driving... oh wait, we are staying home this year.

    ReplyDelete
  6. KW was hinting last week there could be a storm this weekend but once again nothing. This winter will go down as one of the warmest and least snowiest ever. It could be 70 on Christmas so sad guess we will just have to pretend we are out west this Christmas.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Low-topped convective line about to enter WNY. The most interesting weather related occurrence in awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I just ordered a Snugpak SJ9. It's made in England and doesn't schedule to ship until January 4th, so I'll make 2 highly scientific predictions here: 1.) winter won't arrive until my Parka does and 2.) once it (the parka) does arrive I'll be glad I have it.

    SW

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wow AccuWeather is saying 60 Christmas day! But then around the 28th and beyond more seasonable temps. Anyone else seeing that?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Yes. I think we will be spending Christmas Day outside on the deck this year.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Cohen tidbit:

    "We continue to believe that the strength of the polar vortex, especially in January will play an important role in not only the phase of the AO for the latter half of winter but also in the sensible weather across the hemisphere. At AER we have developed a polar vortex model that predicts the strength of the polar vortex one month in advance. As we discussed in the blog last month, the model was predicting the polar vortex to become disturbed the third week of December, which is now being predicted by the weather models. The polar vortex model also predicts a similar perturbing of the stratospheric polar vortex in the first week of January and again an even bigger event the second week of January. In addition, the predicted temperature pattern of cold Siberia and warm western Eurasia is favorable for increased WAFz. Therefore, based on the polar vortex model and the upcoming atmospheric circulation pattern, we are anticipating more upward pulses of WAFz."

    This is what the PV at 10 mb currently looks like:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/n15_amsu_z10_nh_asc.png

    This is how the GFS and Euro predict it will look in ten days:
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z10_nh_f240.png
    http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

    It's not going to be the final blow to the torch pattern if it holds, but it's definitely something you want to see more of going forward if you're pining for a fundamental pattern change.

    ReplyDelete
  12. There's a remote chance...like an extremely super tiny remote chance...that the pre-Christmas heat ridge moves along more quickly than currently modeled and allows for more seasonable temps and maybe some snow on Christmas day. It's something that the East Asia Rule has been hinting at for a little while, and it sort of makes logical sense in the face of a fast-moving pattern. The problem is that the models and ensembles are in just about the strongest agreement possible that this will not be the case. But if you feel like clinging to the tiniest remnants of hope for a white Christmas until reality smacks you in the face with a bag of rain-soaked 65 degree coal...well, now you have something to grab onto.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And I'm SURE KW and JN will be hyping this small chance!

      Delete
  13. Again CCCC giving out false hope like he does with saying a storm is possible. Stop hoping this winter is going to be one for the snow haters please stop CCCC with the false hope.

    ReplyDelete
  14. It does not look good: Shorts and t-shirts for Christmas day.

    ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE A CERTAINTY THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
    WINTRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD...DO NOT GET USED TO IT. THE
    ACTIVE PACIFIC REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE...KEEPING THE
    PATTERN PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY KICKING OUT TROUGHING BY LATE
    SUNDAY. THIS WILL END THE LAKE PROCESSES...WITH ANOTHER EXTENDED
    STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BEGIN HEADING INTO
    NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS EVEN FARTHER OUT THAT SHARPLY
    WARMER WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE CHRISTMAS TIME PERIOD
    WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR MOST.


    ReplyDelete
  15. Suddenly got very windy outside.

    I'd be completely stunned if the East Asia Rule somehow managed to defeat the lockstep model consensus. Far more likely that any return to seasonable occurs after Christmas, and only briefly at that. In the meantime, the latest run of the Euro weekly depicts improvements on the Pacific side of things in early January, but there's still no sign of any Atlantic blocking. I don't expect that for quite awhile though. And much unlike last season I don't think we'll see a sudden flip to consistently cold and snowy. It's probably going to be slow and incremental, and very likely won't plunge us into the depths of cold that defined the past two winters. So IMO January will be more of a "transition" month as opposed to a "flip" month.

    ReplyDelete
  16. In other words February will bring more winter weather and snow. Then the transition will switch to February then March then winter over. Heard it all before so stop 60 inches top and that may be kind plus well above average temperatures all winter. Hope you people did not contract your snow plowing because you will get killed this winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Merry Christmas, Uncle

      Delete
    2. You are a babbler. You babble.

      Delete
    3. Remember that it has snow as late as mid to late April some years.

      Delete
  17. All the snow and action is out West where it will stay all of December and into January. As long as we are snowless lets break the least snowiest record. Does anyone know what year we had the least amount od snow?

    ReplyDelete
  18. 41.7 in 52-53

    http://rochester.nydatabases.com/database/monthly-snowfall

    Not a chance we go that low. Imo.


    ReplyDelete
  19. I'd be a lot more concerned about a record-breaking skunker if we had this pattern with a La Nina or neutral ENSO.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The late 50's had the most amount of snow as well I think.

    ReplyDelete
  21. We had a run of three consecutive very snowy winters in the late 50s, including our snowiest of all time (1959-60). That was an ENSO neutral winter which followed two consecutive El Ninos. By the way, for anyone who's already given up on this winter, a bit of research shows that we tend to do quite well in the snow department in neutral/Nina winters following El Ninos. This holds especially true for moderate La Ninas.

    ReplyDelete
  22. There's a decent chance that Christmas ends up seasonably mild rather than torchy. The major global models have sped up the arrival of a cold front behind the massive heat ridge to early Christmas morning, so it could still manage to feel a bit more like Christmas. Still virtually zero chance of snow however.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I think this LES event this weekend will be bigger than most are thinking right now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 15, 2015 at 7:24 PM

      What makes you say this?

      Delete
    2. Wishcasting. Not saying that it definitely won't happen, just that there's no good reason to expect it right now.

      Delete
  24. CIPS analogs:

    http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2015121512&map=thbCOOP72

    ReplyDelete
  25. Looks like the standard lake belts areas get some snow this weekend. The cities miss out. Does not matter anyway as temps get back to the 50's next week. Our snow drought continues.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Still holding on to hope that the AccuWeather long range pans out-- Normal temps due right around January 1 and beyond.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Keep holding on to that hope because that is all you have. CCCC will keep sending that to you with his posts.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Traveling from Avon to Canandaigua this Saturday for a party.

    OK travel, right? Doesn't look particularly snowy according to 8, 10, 13.

    But I figure I'd ask the experts here too.

    ReplyDelete
  29. A glimmer of hope!?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015121612&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=169

    ReplyDelete
  30. Excepting the Euro, the operational models have definitely backed off on the huge pre-Christmas heat wave. The GFS even has some snow showers lingering on Christmas day. But then the Euro wants to fry our parkas off during that same time period. So more conflict abounds than in days prior. As for the lake effect, there's always a chance for a quick minor accumulation...don't blink or you might miss it, that type of deal.

    ReplyDelete
  31. We're going to need some extreme cold down the line to get this to verify:

    http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1dec2015.gif

    It's the model's coldest run for the CONUS so far and a fair bit colder than the consensus. I personally believe we'll end up warmer in the mean than this depiction, but it does come from one of the better seasonal models out there so...take it FWIW.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 17, 2015 at 6:30 AM

      Interesting. It validates what many of us have been saying all along…this winter will not be a wash. Can't help but notice how warm the rest of the world is predicted to be, compared to average, this winter.

      Delete
  32. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 17, 2015 at 6:21 AM

    Looks like the worst of the El Nino is behind us. The warmest waters have cooled a bit and dispersed across the El Nino regions. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end of the unseasonable warmth...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope you're right!. AccuWeather (FWIW) long range is still showing colder/near normal temps starting around Jan 1.

      While I've enjoyed this mild and fairly dry start, it's time to get on with real winter so the fun can begin.

      Delete
  33. Chris now in PenfieldDecember 17, 2015 at 6:28 AM

    Oops, forgot the link.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  34. Still no storms or snow in sight for Rochester.

    ReplyDelete
  35. KW last night just can't give in to the green Christmas idea. As I predicted, he was saying things like... remote chance of some snowflakes Christmas Day... most models are saying no snow, BUT one model says we could get snow...

    Very funny. And Very predictable.

    ReplyDelete
  36. El Nino can kiss my ass. This really sucks. People still cutting their grass. Taking the dog for a walk in short sleeve shirts. Green Christmas. Bah Humbug!!! LOL

    ReplyDelete
  37. This winter sucks and nothing in the future looks positive for us snow lovers. No matter how many hope posts CCCC makes there is no model agreement. Bristol should just close.

    ReplyDelete
  38. One of these things is not like the others...

    http://i65.tinypic.com/21muo7t.jpg

    (hint: compare 1982-83 and 1997-98 to the current season)

    ReplyDelete
  39. There are ensemble hints of more of a west coast ridging tendency going towards the new year. It's a baby step since we still have no blocking and Alaska is still awash with troughing, but then no one said this would be an easy transition process.

    ReplyDelete
  40. The Euro has joined the GFS and GGEM in muting the Christmas warm wave, although there are still large differences in the details. Christmas pool party plans are now up in the air.

    ReplyDelete
  41. The hope monger strikes again. You sure CCCC that you are not really KW?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Sounds like the EPS mean is also on board with a change to ridging in the west. So it's still early but it seems there's now a door opening from the current garbage pattern to one that's less garbage. The Euro weekly updates this evening, we'll see if it also agrees.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Anon. Come on. Enough with the stabs on CCC. He is providing good information.

    ReplyDelete
  44. The weeklies show exactly what you would expect given most winter forecasts: slow and steady improvement through mid January. Height anomalies in western North America shift to positive during early January while also rising near the pole (i.e. declining but still positive AO). Not quite there yet as it pertains to the NAO, and the AO could probably be better, but it's a vastly improved pattern over what we have right now. The Atlantic/polar domains won't join the party until about 2-3 weeks after the PV is sufficiently disrupted, so we're likely going to have to wait until late January at the earliest to get cooperation there. Recall that we received no help whatsoever from the NAO/AO last winter, so we can satiate ourselves with a decent pattern as long as the Pacific cooperates. Speaking of the PV, the initial blow from poleward heat flux remains on tap, and there are modeled hints of a second one occurring very early in January. So to summarize, everything still appears to be on track for a transition to a more wintry pattern during January.

    Now as for these "hope" accusations...
    http://i.imgur.com/hD52ENK.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And to be perfectly clear, I'm not implying a return to last season's temp departures. Just making a point that we can get some wintry weather as long as the Pacific pattern plays nice.

      Delete
  45. I have accepted the fact that we will not see snow here in the Rochester area for awhile, but I really just want the sun to come out. Yike. This cloudy gloomy weather is depressing.

    ReplyDelete
  46. For those of us who are traveling to various family and friends' gathering over the next week -- to have somewhat nice weather is a blessing. Who wants to drive in a blizzard and can barely see in front of you conditions. Know that many on the blog are upset as to the lack of snow and winter; but for those of us who do not have family in the area and will be traveling -- I'm okay with what is forecast for the next week or so. Just my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And I totally agree with you 8:38.

      KW is doing his new and improved "wait two weeks and the pattern will change" thing. Interestingly on his little map last night it showed the SNOW areas in Virginia and the mid-Atlantic and not here. It looked to me like NY was just colder.

      Delete
  47. As much fun as I have driving in snow, I'd definitely trade it for smooth sailing to see my family during the holidays.

    Briefly revisiting last night's post about the pattern transition, it's interesting to note that CPC's medium range analogs have included two of the big El Nino turnaround seasons pretty consistently over the past several days, those seasons being 1957-58 and 2006-07. 1965-66 has been in there occasionally as well. Neither 1982-83 nor 1997-98 have made appearances as far as I know, but then I've only been examining CPC's analog product since earlier this week. The one caveat: 2001-02 has also been in the analog package pretty consistently. But that season didn't feature an El Nino, plus the PV was poorly placed and maintained a steady strength essentially from beginning to end. Those things were not entirely the case in 1957-58 or 2006-07 (much weaker in 1958, weaker and more favorably located in 2007), and the PV isn't currently on track to maintain its strength or move to an unfavorable location this time around. With all of that said...and I probably should've brought this up last night...it wouldn't surprise me if any changes were muted initially or pushed back somewhat given the changes needed to the background pattern. It's not uncommon to see that happen even as the existing background pattern marches towards its demise...it does take time for the regional pattern to respond to distant changes after all.

    ReplyDelete
  48. We're running 12 degrees above normal MTD. Could you imagine the misery if we were 12 degrees below normal in the summer?

    ReplyDelete
  49. Looks like the week after Christmas could be warmer than Christmas week. Yike. We look to break the record this Christmas Eve of 58.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Maybe I'm missing something but the week after Christmas doesn't look that warm to me. And the warmth before Christmas looks pronounced but fleeting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually I think I figured it out...I'm simply getting acclimated to December now being a fall month, so upper 40s to low 50s this time of year don't seem abnormal to me anymore -_-

      Delete
  51. I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas
    The only kind I ever liked
    Where I don't risk my life
    And there's no strife
    Getting where I want to go

    GO EL NINO!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ew, brown? Really? Green or go home. Throw some sunshine in there and we're golden.

      Delete
    2. Go live in the South then. We are supposed to have snow in the North.

      Delete
  52. The KBUF snowless streak is over...barely:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    ReplyDelete
  53. I made something I think it "mildly" interesting. I took the KROC temperature data from 1926-2014 and made a graph of the probability of getting above or below each temperature for each day of the year.
    For example, ever wonder what the historical probability is of having a high above 50 degrees?

    If interested check out:

    https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z

    or click my n ame

    in particular to the two .pdf files

    of high or low probabilities.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Holy smokes! You really are spreadsheetguy.

      Delete
    2. Also. If you open the last spreadsheet on a PC the middle worksheet gives you a scatter plot of the likelihood of exceeding a given temperature and getting a low below a given temperature for each day of the year.

      There is a slider bar to control the temperature in question.

      You could foe example see a graph of the likelihood of a high above 40 degrees for every day of the year.

      As you can expect. Late dec through mid to late Feb have similar avg temperatures. But our extreme cold days are more common at in late jan to early feb.

      It's fun to look at. I don't have the time to do as much with spreadsheets theses days. Young children and all. But I do still like to tinker from time to time.

      https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z

      Or click name. It's currently the last 3 files of interest.

      Delete
  54. Oh my God. I think I saw a snow flurry. Pretty sad.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now imagine you live in Florida. You've just surpassed your average annual snowfall total.

      Delete
  55. It is really nice to finally see the sun.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Still nothing in sight as far as a storm potential. Sad winter this is turning out to be.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You realize it is not winter yet. Winter starts on 12/21. Still a lot of winter left to go.

      Delete
  57. There actually is a storm potential way out in time...a cutoff low that's been modeled with surprising consistency for the final few days of the month. What's obviously up in the air at this time is where it tracks...my initial take is that it's mostly a rain system for us, but some model solutions have shown it far enough south for mainly snow. Aside from the usual caveats of having a long-lead system, we have the added problem of this being a cutoff low scenario which would tend to give the models fits until very late in the game. Just something to keep an eye on...at least until the models converge to a plains cutter or lose the storm entirely :P

    ReplyDelete
  58. With no snow in the foreseeable future we will end December with not even an inch of snow. Scott Hesko posted on Twitter that he sees no snow until January.

    ReplyDelete
  59. That seems like a premature call to me tbh. Then again, I tend to err on the side of patience more often than not.

    ReplyDelete
  60. I'm not sure I want winter if it doesn't get here until February.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Still no big storms in sight in fact a rain storm more likely in a week or so. This is a terrible, terrible, winter for snow lovers. But CCCC will post shortly the patter switch is still on schedule and we should a snowflake by mid January.

    ReplyDelete
  62. So the weather channel is saying Jan thru March will be more of the same...
    http://www.wunderground.com/news/january-march-outlook-2016-noaa-wsi

    ReplyDelete
  63. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_z500a_us_47.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_z500a_us_63.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_z500a_us_49.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_z500a_us_65.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-clues/54271251
    https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/678241049727365120

    Whatever Todd Crawford is looking at, it's definitely not what I'm looking at...

    ReplyDelete
  64. I don't think our early January colder pattern is one that will last. We'll probably snap back to warmer than average at some point, but not nearly as strongly or persistently as right now. The changes happening in the high latitudes will make it increasingly difficult to sustain the current pattern at this magnitude and duration.

    ReplyDelete
  65. You know what would be utterly hysterical? If we really did get only 60 inches of snow this winter, but it all came in two historically massive blizzards. A true I-95 style winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark it down guy's dream.

      I actually think the winter will have a couple 8-14" storms. But be warmer overall. I would be shocked if it really came in quite that low of a total. I'm expecting g 70 ish on the season still. But lots of melting.

      Delete
    2. The most exciting 70 inches we'll ever receive followed by the most boring 120 inches since 2010-11? It's more likely than you think.

      Delete
  66. This could be the warmest December on record and the least snowiest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Warmest for sure. Least snowy? Likely but not definite.

      Delete
    2. We'd have to get 4.3" of snow between now and year end. It'd be a lark if we got it at this point. Still seems like a decent cool down ahead after the 1st with more normal like temps. Hope that materializes.

      Delete
  67. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/678639296056836096

    ReplyDelete
  68. Someone said there is a possibility for a big storm in a week from now? Is that accurate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That someone is off base. Get your waders out after Christmas because we may get a lot of rain. The winter is just getting worse and worse as we go. Nothing more awful than heavy rain at the end of December.

      Delete
  69. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/astronomical-winter-begins-solstice-when-will-cold-snow-weather-return/54333620

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122112/gfs-ens_z500a_us_45.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122112/gem-ens_z500a_us_45.png

    Slow and steady.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Wow. The beat goes on:

    ANY COOLDOWN
    WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WELL AS MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
    PRODUCING ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
    WEEK...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH.

    ReplyDelete

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