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Sunday, January 31

The Return (or, Arrival) of Winter

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After the warmest and least snowy December on record in Rochester, January behaved a little more like January should. We slowly added nearly 2 feet of snow for the month (22.5" to be exact), and averaged a few degrees above average. The first 48-72 hours of February will be quite mild with likely record warmth on Wednesday as a deep storm system tracks once again off to our west. This will be the trigger to a more winter-like pattern heading into early February.

After Wednesday, temperatures will crash to more seasonable levels (lower to mid 30s) for the rest of this week and into the weekend, while it's looking more likely that a mid-late winter cold snap will return into the middle of February.
At this point, we don't see any big snow events for us, so we will still be lacking that, but there are a few lows on the horizon that both long-range GFS and Euro are latching onto. So, hang onto your hats this week, and then hang onto your winter jackets, at least for a little while longer.

191 comments:

  1. I suspect we will be average or a tad lower for the remainder of the month of February.

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    Replies
    1. Average precip, temps or both?

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  2. I think after this week coming up we have to keep an eye on the next 2 weeks. Cold is suppose to set in and there a lot of individual pieces of energy showing up on the models. I think the east coast is going to see a blockbuster. Not sure if WNY will be in on that but worth watching starting next weekend.

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  3. In a completely predictable turn of events, the CFS has abandoned its previous warm idea for February in favor of a cold one, and it has once again occurred within the waning moments of the preceding month. I'm completely at a loss as to why the CPC doesn't just decommission that glorified toilet of a model, because all it ever does is predict wall-to-wall torching until its face is pressed against the glass.

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  4. Uh oh. That's bad news for the Weather Channel, which seems to screenshot the CFS for its headline: NEXT THREE MONTHS TO BE SCORCHERS!

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  5. KW has briefly mentioned, in passing, to watch for a potential winter storm on the East Coast, but he then moved on. No one else has mentioned it. What are other's seeing.

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  6. Well if the Euro run last night was for like 3 days out we would be singing. Last night it had a bomb for the 10th and we were in the sweet spot. The low went right through CNY. Now we all now what it means when you are the bulls eye 10 days out. But at least it is something to track.

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  7. I have been so happy with this winter thus far as I am not a snow lover. However, I know it is too good to be true, so am expecting Feb/March to make up for the first part of winter. It's just odd...my plow guy has only had to come about 3-4 times. So far he is making out well, as it is a contract, but I don't care because the benefit of not having so much snow has been worth it.

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    Replies
    1. Things tend to not balance out that way within the season. I have never researched it, but going on memory, it seems as though meek winters tend to be followed by cold, rainy Spring seasons.

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  8. All who visit the Blog -- be sure to send out good, positive thoughts to Scott. According to his Facebook page, he has one more procedure to go through and if he is cleared, he will then be given the okay to come back to work and back on the air. So fingers crossed and good thoughts being put out there.

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  9. Yes hope Scott get great news and is back Sunday because he could have a lot to track next week if GFS and Euro keep on track with what they are showing.

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  10. We're just one easy peasy biopsy away from Scotty sending our anti-snow dome back to hell, then it's game on for an endless conga line of sub 980 mb nukes from RIC to BTV.

    At least that's what I keep telling myself in my erotic fantasies.

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  11. Next week does have to be watched for sure. I think there will be sizable snow storm for the interior northeast.

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  12. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 15 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I still think there is a problem with your space bar.

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    2. Chris, I tried replying to you the one night but I don't think it posted. I have a 1996 polaris Indy XLT 600 and a 1995 polaris XCR 600. Bought them as a package, on a trailer. I think they were probably a his and hers set. The XLT has around 5500 miles the XCR only has about 2500 miles.

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    3. Fully justified text alignment = formatting whackiness

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  13. At the very least the teles don't currently favor a suppressed track for next week's potential storm. Not really a textbook setup either but it wouldn't take much to spin something up. That west coast ridge means business and it places the downstream trough in a pretty favorable location in the ensemble means.

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  14. 00z model mayhem continues. The plot thickens, is time still running out on Rochester's storm chances this winter, or will this be Rochester long awaited storm. Either way exciting for a change, but not time to get hopes up yet.

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  15. Farmington - some classics! Those were top tier sleds in their day, especially the XCR. Polaris dominated the 90s market. I currently own three, not by choice. This winter has created a buyers market, so I've been unable to sell my 2001 Polaris. I have a 2012 Ski Doo GSX and I just bought a '16 Grand Touring 2-up for myself and the Mrs.

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  16. I read on Don Paul's blog that the cold stretch should last about two weeks...then a return to a zonal flow at the end of the month.

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  17. The GFS now shows a storm next week for the fish. Way South and East.

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  18. The 0Z was almost a bulls eye for us. Now the 6Z is a total miss and for the fish.

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  19. Looking forward to Scott's healthy return and hearing him say, it's great to be back, feeling great with a great prognosis.

    Maybe mother nature can also give him something fun to forecast, like a snow storm for us :)

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  20. Looks like we are back in the 40's on Monday. WTF.

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    Replies
    1. Probably not 40s. Regardless it cools down with chances of snow.

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  21. Phil did not see his shadow which means early spring! Boy does that seem like a sure bet with the way this winter has gone.

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  22. I got a 98 XC 700. Not even registered this year because I had a feeling it would be a waste of 100 bucks. I'm at the point I don't even want snow any more. A two week riding season would be dumb.

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    Replies
    1. $100??? Join a club and get it for $45.

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    2. $25 to join the club. $45 to register and $75 for insurance. Not including parts and maintenance. Not worth it during a strong ENSO season of any stripe.

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  23. Well Well Well....Looks like an early Spring WOO-HOO!!!! Sorry Folks, you'll just have to wait till next winter for your big storm, cause it ain't happenin this year!! Bring on my early SPRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  24. You're not my supervisor!!!

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  25. Fun fact: groundhogs have zero predictive skill of any kind.

    The past two GFS runs (including the still updating 12z run) show you how next week's storm can be a whiff. The southern disturbance pushes out ahead of the northern one and gets kicked out to sea, much unlike 00z where the two disturbances phased and sent a strong low up the coastline. Just a few of many possibilities in a complex setup, and with so much ensemble spread remaining there's no real reason to get concerned or excited about any standalone run at this point. I don't think suppressed or cutter are valid concerns anymore, but there are still two possible avenues of failure:

    -The aforementioned missed phase and subsequent OTS track leaving us with just light snows from the northern system.
    -The northern system being too strong and torching the mid levels, leaving us with possible p-type issues (this partially manifested in last night's 00z GFS).

    So as is often the case, whether we get a storm or not will come down to timing of multiple disturbances and how they ultimately interact, which likely won't be resolved for several days. And on the topic of long range, this is the exact relevant text from Don Paul's blog:

    "In the next couple of weeks the phase of the MJO will not teleconnect with colder temps in the midwest/east. On the other hand, the SSW and EPO going into a negative phase do teleconnect with colder temps. These contradictory tendencies make long range forecasting a risky proposition at best, and a fruitless exercise at worst."

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    1. If this is reference to my post regarding Don Paul blogging about the trough relaxing after mid-month, here is his quote verbatim:

      By mid month, however, there is good agreement in the ensemble means of the amplitude of the western ridge/eastern trough again flattening out quite a bit."

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  26. Not liking the possibilities now of any large scale storms next week. Models now pretty strong with storms going OTS. Guess we can only hope things change because at one point a few runs put us right in the bulls eye of a significant storm.

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    Replies
    1. GGEM has it hugging the coast. Unfortunately the GGEM sucks at its job.

      Things are all but guaranteed to change in some way at this range...whether those changes are for the snowier is still TBD.

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  27. Spring will be arriving in The Flower City within the next 15 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. ah you changed your usually blog post.

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  28. Very cold look to the GEFS mean near Valentines Day.

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  29. Interesting...the new Euro run says GTFO to the initial southern wave and decides to focus on the trailing longwave trough instead. What ends up happening is the aforementioned northern stream energy dives down and spins up a secondary low just east of OBX, which then shoots up across Nantucket while rapidly strengthening.

    The mystery deepens yet again...

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  30. What does all that mean CCCC?

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  31. it means we have 4 weeks till winter is in the rear view mirror!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Anon 2:57 -- sorry is your name CCCC

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  32. It means we still have a giant conundrum on our hands because the models don't have a clue yet.

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  33. Of all the winters since 1940 that have had less than 25" Nov-Jan, Feb is generally normal, March below normal and April above normal. So it's a pay me now or pay me later scenario. Based on that analog we might get an April snow storm :(
    Any storm past mid March is like kissing your sister... ugh!

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  34. Let hope there are no storms for Easter/Spring Break, and those of us who take vacation during April. Would be really upset if we have a Blizzard then; and don't say it never snows in April as it has in the past.

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  35. December was an autumn month this year so if April becomes a winter month I won't really mind. Beats the usual 45 degree drizzle at least.

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  36. Yike. The models are really taking that system OTS now. I hope that is not the trend. Frustrating.

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  37. I actually hope it keeps trending further OTS, that'll give the main trough more room to spin something up. The lead wave is so thoroughly out of phase with the northern stream that it's not worth any heartaches, and honestly even if it did try to come back at this point it would probably still whiff and subsequently screw us out of anything from the trough. Our best bet at the moment is that sucker exiting stage right ASAP and letting the trough do its thing.

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  38. Now I am confused. From the NWS:

    AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
    LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD
    WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO...MANY WILL HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN
    TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

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  39. Nobody knows what the hell is going on with the long range. Even the Euro suite has been flip-flopping for days. Conflicting signals will do that.

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  40. Bernie Rayno likes a storm to develop next week but along the coast and will not hit us.

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  41. His threat box covers the entire Northeast and even parts of the Midwest. The "main" threat area was east of here but not by much. Doesn't matter anyway since that's basically just his gut feeling.

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  42. The models are all over the place with Feb 9-10. From a double barrel low producing a long duration light snow to a bigger storm somewhere along the coast. It will be interesting to watch

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  43. Looks like any storm will be more for the coast and too far SE to impact us. The rain this morning is brutal when it is early February but that has been the way this winter has gone.

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  44. March 1999 had 45 inches of snow. Bank on it this year with another foot in April. "Pukes in mouth a little"

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    Replies
    1. Those were back to back storms, one 20", one 24", within a few days of each other. I remember those two storms as that was the first year I owned a four wheel drive vehicle. I had to pick up my mother from work and take her colleague home, which involved driving down an unplowed road in Greece. 2WD was not an option that day.

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  45. "Of all the winters since 1940 that have had less than 25" Nov-Jan, Feb is generally normal, March below normal and April above normal." Says anon 2/2 329pm

    That's an interesting stat. Assuming its correct (I don't have any reason to believe it isn't), 1.) I'm wondering for these years what the snowfall totals were for the following winter? and 2.) Remembering back to a comment made by CCCC very early this season (November I think), that we tend to do very well in post-el nino years (paraphrasing here), I'm wondering which years were El nino years and what snowfall totals looked like the following year; and 3.) how far back do we have records to distinguish between el nino and non el nino or el nina years?

    SW

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    Replies
    1. I am that anon, and those are good questions. I will check it out tonight or tomorrow, but I bet someone beats me to it today. :)

      Also let me clarify my stats.. When I say, normal, above, below for those months, I'm stating the simple average. I will research and post that a little more thoroughly when I have time.

      A

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    2. Oh boy time to be a dirty little thunder stealer :P

      1) I didn't find any real tendency there. Six total winters evenly split between above and below average. Feel free to correct that if necessary since I basically just skimmed through the NWS monthly snow page to come up with that conclusion.
      2) Average snowfall was 108.7" with 57.1% of those winters finishing over 100. Four of them were second year Ninos, two of which were well above average while the other two were well below. The numbers for winters following moderate/strong Ninos were: average of 113.1", 71.4% over 100", two second year Ninos both with well above average snowfall.
      3) The CPC site goes back to 1950 using the ERSSTv4 dataset. I found one other site that goes back to 1900 but it uses the HADISST dataset, so there are significant discrepancies from the CPC table. Whether an ENSO event qualifies as Nino/Nina/neutral, or weak/moderate/strong really comes down to which dataset is being used to calculate the SST anomaly, so for the sake of consistency I just stick to the "official" CPC table for all purposes.

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  46. 12z GFS not very good for a storm in Rochester. Just beginning to think this is just not our winter in regards to snow and storms.

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  47. There's still no need to bellyache over the results of op runs. That said, we seem to be honing in a bit more over the past day or so. The initial wave is DOA, no getting around it. Its only purpose will be to influence the outcome of the second system in the following way: the stronger it is, and/or the closer it is to the trough, the more sway it will have as a sort of pseudo block. That would cause the coastal secondary from the trough to track farther offshore. Get that lead wave out of the way sooner and the coastal will track closer to the coast. But even if we end up with a less than ideal coastal track, there's still the inverted trough left behind by the primary clipper wave to worry about. The 12z GFS hangs some decent snow from that thing all the way back across the western Great Lakes, despite the coastal tracking way east across the benchmark.

    tl;dr: it's still complicated

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    Replies
    1. Bottom line possibility of a winter storm next week? Yes, no, maybe.

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  48. What did the 12z Euro show?

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  49. EPS at 144:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016020312/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_7.png

    168:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016020312/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_8.png

    Euro op at 144:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

    168:
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

    Discrepancies >___<

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  50. Pertinent tweet:

    https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/694892616094081025

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  51. The storm for next week is totally gone for us. I think it is time to concede that this winter will go down as, at least, in the top 5 least snowiest winters ever. Even Scott said it on twitter the other day. Next week will just be lake effect for some and some light snow for all. We just cannot seem to get a storm this year. We get the freaking rain all the time but snow is hard to come by.

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    Replies
    1. So concede it and move on.

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  52. Yeah Snowdog this winter has not been good and things do not look any better down the road. Feel sorry for winter weather lovers. Scott and KW both verified no storm for us next week just lake effect in usual spots.

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  53. Its going to be cold and there will be snow falling next week. Probably nothing much in the way of snow, but not zero either.

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  54. It looks like we can stick a fork in any "big" storm possibility for western NY early next week; however, it appears there will still be snow flying in the area for most of the next week. This looks to me to be a favorable set up for lake enhanced snows, so I am starting to get excited that it will be very wintery and white again next week in Hamlin.

    It will be great to get Scott back to news 8 on Sunday, his input on the blog and energetic forecasts have definitely be missed.

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  55. At this time it appears that next Wednesday could be particularly snowy for the area. It could and will most likely change a bit for next week but, the models are indicating an active pattern with many chances for snow. Will it be enough to satisfy snow loving bloggers after such a putrid winter so far? I doubt it. At this point, we have to take what we can get and once spring arrives early or late, try to forget about this winter forever.

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  56. All have to remember with LES, it will depend on where the bands set up. More than likely those north of 104 and closer to the Lake will see more than those south of 104 and the Thruway. Again, will depend on where you live and how to winds blow.

    But do have to say that after what we experienced last February with 43+ inches of snow and one of the coldest February's on record; glad we have what we have. Heating bill has been okay; but I know that does not help those who LOVE the blizzards, winter storms, and feet of snow.

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  57. Scott just posted that his biopsy went well -- no rejection. So we will see his happy face and weather reporting on Sunday after the Super Bowl. Bet he and his family are feeling very BLESSED and continue to think of the donor and their family.

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    Replies
    1. Makes my day to hear that great news about Scott.
      A

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  58. If the 12z GFS forecast verified I would be satisfied with our snowfall next week. Either way more wintery than yesterday for sure.

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  59. I hope you would be satisfied because if I am correct the 12z GFS is a pretty good hit for us? Maybe CCCC can weigh in if I am correct or not. I see it as a 10-12 inch snowfall on that run?

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  60. No doubt that the big storm threat is now largely mitigated if not gone entirely. But I wouldn't call it a "lake effect in the usual areas" situation either...this has the appeal of a prolonged widespread light to moderate snow thanks to a lingering inverted trough. The 12z GFS actually puts out some rather robust snowfall with this feature, even pushing close to low grade warning levels in a few areas during the course of next Tuesday. The obvious major caveat to this thing is how complicated the whole shebang is, with some of the guidance not quite wanting to wave the white flag on the lead wave for eastern New England. That would have implications upstream and affect how wave #2 pans out. All I will say on that topic is that you probably don't want the lead wave to trend NW if you're looking for more than mood flakes next week. I'll also say that inverted troughs can be an utter beotsch to resolve even in the short range, so there's still no reason for hand-wringing when the 18z GFS tries to take our snow away later this afternoon.

    I read the news about Scott this morning...THE HYPE IS NOW REAL WOOOOO!!

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  61. But did not the 12z GFS snow maps put us in a 8-12 inch snow range? I know it can and will change but we do have s shot at some pretty decent snow next Tuesday/Wednesday?

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    1. Over a prolonged period of time, yes. It's not like we'd be trying to squeeze a passable snowcover out of ragged scraps from the lakes in any event.

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    2. So basically we will have winter storm next week with possible snow accumulations of 12+ inches. I'm confused.

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    3. It's a prolonged period of light to possibly moderate snow adding up over time. Amounts are still very much in question and will be through at least the weekend. Wouldn't really qualify it as a true winter storm though.

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  62. Nothing is still set in stone and may not be until Sunday. But we could get snow plowable snow for sure. KW tweeted we will get cold next week with a possible few snow surprises and I don not lie surprises he said.

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    Replies
    1. What does KW means by "I do not lie surprises". Do you think he comes on and read this blog and some of the posts about him and JN?

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  63. Very prudent to point out that there are still major discrepancies between the global models. The GGEM, for example, produces far less snow for us than the GFS does.

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  64. GEFS pressure spread from hr 108 to hr 132:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png

    Still looks like a hormonal preteen's face after a six hour grease bath. But you can see that the general theme of a clipper transferring to the coast is the prevailing idea, with the inverted trough briefly discernible in the mean at hr 120.

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  65. 12z GFS has been out to lunch and the 12z Euro brings it back to reality with a whopping 2 inches for WNY. There is no big storm as CCCC has said and I truly feel this winter is not going to change.

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  66. We've all been off the big storm bandwagon since about midday Tuesday. Way to catch up :P

    I would say the GFS is out to lunch if it didn't agree with its ensembles. The problem is that it does agree with its ensembles. The bigger problem is that the GGEM also agrees with its own ensembles, which are noticeably further east with the secondary low than the GFS ensembles. The GEFS mean has about 0.75-1.00" of total QP through 00z next Saturday while the GEPS mean has 0.50-0.75", so my guess is that the Euro might be too low with its QPF output. I wouldn't fully trust the Euro the way it's been performing lately anyway.

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    1. So what does this all mean?

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    2. Time is the only thing that will help the forecast at this point.

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    3. It means it's still too early for either celebrations or weenie suicides.

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  67. I read on the AccuWx forum that the Euro prints out 0.75-1.00" of QP across the lake plain over the course of several days. My guess is that it simply lacks the synoptic thump that the GFS has for Monday night into late Tuesday, but other than that we still get the snowglobe treatment.

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  68. If you take a look at the NAO for last season and this season so far you can make the conclusion that October snowfall increase in Siberia don't mean a thing. They might want to revise that study. We cant buy a prolonged -NAO the past two seasons.

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  69. That hypothesis is meant more for the AO than the NAO. It posits that that higher Siberian snowcover promotes poleward heat flux, which weakens the polar vortex and promotes a negative AO. We've had plenty of poleward heat flux this winter, but it's been battling what started out as an extremely strong vortex. I would say that the hypothesis has mostly verified this winter, but hasn't quite gotten the job done owing to how far it's had to climb up to this point. It did completely fail last winter and Cohen explained that by positing that the greater than average Barents-Kara Sea ice caused a dampening effect. Also recall that we had an extremely negative AO during a large part of this January.

    I will say though, that if I decide to do an outlook for next winter then I'll probably just have the NAO averaging positive by default, since apparently a sustained Greenland blocking regime is now a physical impossibility.

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    1. Thanks for clarifying. I guess I assumed the snow cover had more to do with NAO. That is why we are not suppose to ASSume anything. Next season we will probably get an insanely -NAO setup like a few years back, driving all storms south into the Mid Atlantic states. It was cold that season from start to finish, but if I remember correctly big storms where not in our cards that season until one in end of February.

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    2. That happened in 2009-10. Also, the Siberian snowpack acts to chill the air that is the source for our arctic air when the gates open up.

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    3. If we get a winter of suppression during a La Nina episode then something is definitely fuqued.

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  70. 12z GFS kind and 18z GFS is not so kind. The models show no consistency and this is only 5 days away it is crazy.

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  71. Ultimately it produces nearly as much snow as 12z, but the inverted trough sets up further south so we have less of an initial synoptic thump.

    On the topic of consistency, it's more than slightly annoying that this always seems to happen with our potentially plowable winter events, yet every single warm cutter seems to be modeled perfectly the moment it gets within Euro range. I read yesterday that one of the NWS offices in Nebraska had the snowfall forecast for their recent storm nailed down to within a single inch from a nine day lead time. Nine flippitydip days. I can't remember the last time we had a storm resolved anywhere close to that precisely from two days out let alone nine.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, thank-you appalachian mountains,lake Ontario and the Atlantic ocean.

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  72. KW said no storm for us on his broadcast. A little wrap around snow and lake effect in the usual areas.

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  73. Also why are we still abbreviating the names of mets from other stations?

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    Replies
    1. It's like we are afraid to type their full names because it would be like cheating on Scott and the news 8 team.

      Delete
  74. Well this just popped onto my Twitter feed from the man himself:

    "Top analogue for Tue/Wed setup is event from March 1, 2005. 10-12" fell in ROC. But other analogues far less generous w/ snow. Still early."

    Those final two words are the only important ones right now.

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  75. 3 inches would be that definition and that is a good question.

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    Replies
    1. So then he's forecasting precisely 3 inches of snow 4-5 days from now? If so then he might be losing his sanity.

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  76. The CIPS analog guidance has a mean 72 hour total of 8-10 inches, with a median of 6-8. The individual analogs are generally hit or miss, which is to be expected at this range and with so much model chaos.

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  77. Long as we get enough snow that I can finally take these darn snowmobiles for a ride that's all that matters here in Farmington. Just hope we get some "plowable" snow as Scott likes to say. I think he is bringing good winter vibes with him Sunday.

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  78. Maybe I can finally snowshoe and ski some pow pow.

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  79. OzGFS does not give us much snow at all. This is not a very organized or strong storm. Maybe the week after next can bring a big storm all we can do is keep hoping.

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  80. I really wish that stupid lead wave would just disappear, because that thing seems utterly hellbent on creating the most mundane possible outcome from this setup. Relates to what I said a few days ago...if it tries to come back NW it could screw us out of anything worthwhile from the trough. Luckily there's still plenty of time for things to trend back in the right direction.

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  81. Hope so CCCC just think it will not because that lead wave is getting stronger and not getting out. Just a bad luck winter.

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  82. I see nothing big at all next week. Just some nickel and dime boring stuff. An inch here an inch there. Nothing to write home about, but then again this winter has been nothing to write home about.

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  83. Ok I am the last person on this blog who should be commenting on models that I do not even pretend to understand, except that I do have the ability to recognize colors and if I am interpreting the GFS correctly it IS interesting (note I do NOT say believable) that the latest run handed us temps well below zero for Valentines Day...or am I color blind?

    SW

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  84. In several forecasts I'm only seeing a high of 20 Valentines weekend. Burrrrrrr!

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  85. KW and RC have talked about next weekend will be lucky if the temps get to 10 degrees. The polar votex will be making a return!

    Also if you are driving be careful -- # of accidents on 390 (both ways) this morning. Amazing what a little snow, wet roads, and temps below or at freezing will do.

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  86. Never in my years of existence have I felt a more visceral disdain for an inanimate object as I do towards that disgusting subtropical pig in front of the trough. That's actually almost a perfect metaphor...the pig keeps inching closer to the trough and devouring more of its meaty contents.

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  87. Yeah it is done for any significant snow next wee. The 6 and 12z GFS were just awful for WNY. It is just so frustrating that not one storm is working out for us and we will be lucky to get 45 inches in total this winter so sad.

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  88. We aren't seriously going to start playing the "we'll be lucky to get X amount of snow" game again are we?

    The repetitive light snow still adds up to a decent amount by the end of next week, but it's one of those deals where you have like 8 or 9 inches OTG and you can still see the grass in some spots because it accumulated so slowly. Pretty mundane stuff but it'll at least pad the stats a little bit. The rest of the 12z GFS was pure weenie porn...unfortunately we've been able to say that a bunch of times this winter.

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  89. The 12z Euro was just a mess for next week. I still thin things will not be sampled until tomorrow at the earliest. A question? What is that storm down the coast line which is a monster merges with the second one? Could this not turn into a monster storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That would only happen if it slowed down enough to be captured by the trough and brought back towards the coast. As it stands it will most likely serve to screw up the environment that would otherwise make a much larger storm out of the trough energy.

      Delete
  90. The set-up is not good for next week as CCCC has said. Time is just running out this winter.

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  91. Kevin Williams said no big storms in sight just nickel and dime bull crap. I am ready for spring and baseball. I want to put this pathetic winter behind me.

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  92. Watch us finally get a major storm on like Easter or something crazy like that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be a historic ice storm. That's the kind of luck we have going this year.

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  93. Thought for sure that next week would be a big storm on the coast some where and we would get hit big. Looks like nothing and it is frustrating.

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  94. CCCC did you see the most recent NAM run? It is interesting in the fact that can something bigger be brewing. I know NAM long range has not been great but it was right on with the blizzard a few weeks ago.

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  95. 12z GFS gives us about 4 inches by Wednesday NBD but at least something.

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  96. It will be a prolonged period of light to maybe sometimes moderate snow from Tuesday through Saturday. It will be the nickel and dime stuff that we are all used. 1 inch here 2 inches there. No BIG storms for us.

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  97. I will be thankful if we get anything, even if it is just a dusting. Even if we don't get a "BIG" storm, I feel this pattern the next two weeks will still lead to an appreciable snow pack in the area, including Hamlin. Either way better than 60 degrees and mud for this time of year.

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  98. So, I want to see if I am understanding this set-up correctly...there is going to be a Low riding along the Southern jet that go up the coast...at the same time, a Low will cut through the Great Lakes region as it rides along the Polar jet...The southern jet Low will outpace the polar jet Low and interfere with the route of the polar Low as they come close, but DON'T phase (merge). As a result, the polar jet Low will not be able to give us a true snowstorm as it will be restricted by the southern Low, and a possible moisture source (???). Therefore, what we will in essence be getting is a prolonged clipper system with light to moderate snow over several days until the logjam clears and both Lows head out to the Maritimes or off the east coast. Lake effect to follow.

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  99. I agree HP. While I don't mind the warm temps, the brown grass and mud gets old after a while. Will be a nice change to see some snow flying at least.

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  100. 12z GFS is horrible this threat is done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They've all been horrible since 00z Friday, don't know why this is such a surprise.

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  101. Oh sweet baby jesus...

    "BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEAR SIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD 00Z GFS/EC CONSENSUS FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZED BY SATURDAY... THIS AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO."

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    We PNA

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    Replies
    1. CCCC it says -30C does that convert to -22F? That is not correct is it?

      Delete
    2. It's correct if you buy what the Euro and GFS are selling. That's the temp at 850 mb though, at the surface we'd be in the single digits like the discussion says.

      Delete
  102. Wow that sucks! Who wants extreme cold with little snow.

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    Replies
    1. There could be some lake effect along the south shore with a NW wind. I know the discussion says "mainly east-southeast of the lakes" but I see a more northwesterly wind direction on the models by Sunday. Delta T's would be gigantic but dry air and a meager dendritic growth zone would be concerns.

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  103. I love how some of the SREFs try to keep the offshore pig alive as a storm threat. Not happening bro, move on.

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  104. This says it mall about this pathetic winter- Miss miss miss.


    Snow in #ROC trickier Q as next 2 E. coast storms miss. But other factors suggest snowpack building over time. Next week ok, following week better.

    Tired of hearing maybe next week the pattern will get more active for us and then that week comes and nothing. Then its the week after and then that does not happen. Shut up already. LMAO.

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  105. According to KW, winter next week will be coming back with a vengeance and with force. However, from reading everything here on the post -- am I missing something? I know next week is look to be brutally cold, and if we are looking will hit 10 degrees. Does anyone anticipate any Winter Storm Advisories, Watches, or Warnings to go up?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next week will be more lie winter but not a big deal. There will not be any watches, advisories or warnings up for snow fall. There will be some light snow at best.

      Delete
  106. Think I said that a month ago Snowdog. The winter is done and you will hear every week the pattern looks good for a storm and it does not materialize. Then you hear the same thing the next week. It is frustrating and I give up on this winter and am selling my snow stuff.

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  107. If you're unwilling to wait and see if our luck will change, and remain firmly convinced that we will continue to whiff on every opportunity, then feel free to pick up your ball and go home. Especially if you gave up a whole month ago. No point in stringing yourself along when you've already quit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So is KW correct about next week?

      Delete
    2. You mean the "snowpack building over time" thing? That's what we've been looking at for the past several days so I'd say he'll end up being correct.

      Delete
  108. 12z Euro just as bad as GFS so I am not sure how we will be building a snowpack over time unless we are talking through March. Next week we are lucky to get 2 or 3 inches.

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  109. good god...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020612/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020612/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

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    Replies
    1. Aye Carumba! In the second image, I believe I see signs of the trough breaking down already...

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    2. Oh it's definitely going to be COLD!!!!!

      Delete
  110. Bob Barker Beautiful BannisterFebruary 6, 2016 at 4:51 PM

    I think this is going to surprise us in a good way.

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  111. Yeah maybe that disgusting offshore pig will fall into the trough and drown.

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  112. To demonstrate just how much potential that bloated piece of schidt Atlantic low is gobbling up: the 1993 Storm of the Century is one of the CIPS analogs for next week. Now granted that's only one analog out of 15 total, but it means there are elements of next week's H5 pattern that could've given us a shot at a truly massive storm...if not for the pig in front of the trough.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oink, oink, gobble, gobble. Let's hope it keeps right on a' gobblin'.

      Delete
  113. Lol. When you have no snowpack at all anything would increase the snow pack. I see a few inches for us at best next week, but areas East of the lakes will get buried again.

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  114. Whoopdi do!!!!

    New EURO confirms: Next weekend versus this weekend like night & day in #ROC area. Near 0 temps & inches of snow on ground. Shiver & shovel.

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  115. I don't see the lake effect being a wyoming county/tug hill special this time. Mean flow looks more WNW to NW late next week into the weekend, perhaps eventually NNW.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I am disappointed to see that. The snow deficit in parts of Oswego Co. that normally get 200" is as much as it is here. I would bet that at my camp, they have only received 50" at the most so far.

      Delete
  116. Now JN excitement focuses on cold next weekend. Who cares no one wants that. We want a freaking snow storm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. His job isn't to cater to snow weenies like us. Besides, the cold is definitely a bigger story than the glorified clipper.

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    2. Speak for yourself anon 6:32... some of us DO WANT COLD! It will bring snow, even if only a little.

      Delete
  117. I think the Oz GFS is going to show the big pig as CCCC calls it come way NW and up the coast and phase with the northern storm and then game on. People will be saying can you say 1993. Nothing wrong with having a dream.

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    Replies
    1. A blizzard of 1993 proportions in February would do a lot for us snow lovers.

      Delete
    2. If a '93 redux came out of this mess then I'd probably pass out from sheer euphoria.

      Delete
    3. ya know, its great for all to comment on what they think, dream, imagine could happen. All season, the mets have been great to get discussion started, but weary to add. I know there hasn't been much to talk about, but some of their insight would be nice to hear from time to time.

      Delete
    4. Anon 7:32 -- so are you predicting a significant Winter Storm for next week?

      Delete
  118. Do not worry anon 7:55 because you have a better chance of a fat pig flying then those two phasing.

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  119. Oz GFS looing not good too so it is now officially time to throw the towel in for this and the long term shows cold but no storms the beat goes on.

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  120. Nothing has changed still a snow dome over WNY this winter. Next wee just boring with 2 inches at best by the end of the week but cold cold temps are coming next weekend yipeeeee.

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  121. 10 degrees next Saturday! I love it!!! It's gonna be cold and white.

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  122. Confused as many are talking about the Winter Storm Blizzard of 1993 -- is that what you are seeing for next week?

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  123. No storm next week let alone the amazing 93 storm.

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  124. That whole 93 thing was just a hypothetical discussion based on one CIPS analog that came up yesterday. It should be pretty apparent by now that we aren't getting even a low end winter storm let alone a repeat of that monster.

    By the way, these "two inches at best" type comments are just plain stupid. Try actually looking at the models at some point. None of them currently paint "two inches at best," at least when you take things through next weekend. The GFS actually has us nearing a foot total by the time all is said and done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A foot maybe after 15 days. If that is what you mean by all said and done. That would be less than an inch a day and fits right with this winter.

      Delete
    2. That's through next weekend actually. So it's after about 7 days, which is really more like 6 days since it won't start snowing until late Monday night. And we historically average less than an inch of snow per day even in an ordinary winter so that fits the theme of most winters.

      Delete
  125. How are things looking after next weekend? Does the cold have any staying power?

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  126. It looks like we moderate back to near average after the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My students convinced me to do the polar plunge on valentine's day. It's looking awfully cold a week out!

      Delete
  127. It will be a foot of fake lake fluff that will compact to 2 inches. Boring!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still better than zero inches of nothing that compacts to 0 inches.

      Delete
  128. Tonight we have witnessed yet another triumph of science and human spirit over the chaotic malice of nature. Welcome back Scotty :')

    ReplyDelete

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