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Monday, January 4

Transient Winter Weather Continues

Although colder air has returned, it only has a temporary visa thanks to the strongest El Niño in recorded history.  Temperatures this week will climb back to above normal, even 40's by late week.  We expect sunshine to return to Rochester on Tuesday.  The last "mostly sunny" day was WAAYYY back on November 17th!


On another note, I'm happy to announce that I will return to channel 8 on February 7th.  

Until then....

Scott Hetsko

93 comments:

  1. That is good news. Hopefully we have interesting weather to talk about by then. Sunny and warm can wait until May.

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  2. Great to hear that Scott will be back. Hope we have some good storms to welcome him back!

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  3. Our fearless leader is on the home stretch!

    http://i.imgur.com/SwZhym5.gifv

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  4. Just wondering what storms everyone is seeing. I se the one this weekend that will be wet and not white. It mat end as a little snow. I see an east coast storm next week that, right now. looks to miss us south and east. I know its early but we usually miss those. I don't see much after that.

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  5. Looks like most of the action will be Lake effect East of the Lakes. Those areas will get buried next week but most of us high and dry with brief shots of lake effect for most of us.


    DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A
    STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL
    WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES
    WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...
    SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS
    TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE
    PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...
    SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
    ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

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  6. Latest Euro shows an absolute bomb over the southern tier and northern PA early next week. If it ticks more north we could be the target. Fingers crossed...

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    Replies
    1. Southern tier looks to get hammered potentially next week, yikes!
      I hope ROC can get in on this action as well!

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    2. Right absolute bomb on new Euro and it will be a great rain storm for WNY no cold air to work with. get out your umbrellas.

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  7. Again any storm will bring rain and Snowdog is right any substantial LES is always east of the lakes. When is the last time north of the thruway had big LES? The fetch to the north will never be long enough to sustain big snow. So enjoy the warm weather coming the next 5 days because KW says big time cold middle of next week (wink wink) pattern change.

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  8. Will be so good to ave Scotty back in Feb!!!!!!

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  9. Scott,
    Happy to have you back soon! Are you bringing the snow back with you?
    Ray Georgiano

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  10. Chip Maxham said more than decent potential for a winter storm early next week. Said Winter Storm Watches could go up this weekend in WNY!

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    Replies
    1. Which of the three local stations is he with. Is he someone new to the area?

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  11. 12z GFS shows nothing of the sort for early next week. People please stop the hope casting and deal with facts. I know the winter as been horrible and winter weather lovers want a change it is just not in the cards. The El Nino killed us this year so lets move on to spring.

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    Replies
    1. GFS is never accurate however. The Euro shows a 980mb Bomb over the northeast early next week. Its a comin finally!!!

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    2. Woohoo! Get the shovels out AMEN!

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    3. Just wait for the next Euro run that comes out in a little bit. It will show no storm trust me.

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  12. Who the heck is Chip Maxham and why does he care about WNY?

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    Replies
    1. He is the chief meteorologist in the southern tier Elmira area

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    2. Who care. For our area, we know who to listen to, and it is not someone from outside of our area.

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  13. CCCC- can you confirm that were getting a snowstorm next week???

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  14. Is it just the Southern Tier that will be getting Winter Storm Watches?
    What about us, Winter Weather Advisories possibly, or will we end up in the Watch area as well??
    This is exciting none the less!!

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  15. Wait a minute, Winter Storm Watches are up???

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    Replies
    1. Allegehny, Steuben, and Chemung in the southern tier. Nothing in the ROCH area as of yet, though could change in due time.

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    2. Bob Barker Bannister BeautifulJanuary 5, 2016 at 1:10 PM

      Anon 1:06, 12:45, 12:38, 11:51, you are not really helpful or funny so please just move on and be more mature.

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    3. Where are you seeing Winter Storm Watches up already? No one is reporting on this possibility.

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  16. Listen up people! Rochester will NOT be affected by next week's Winter Storm. The Southern Tier maybe, but NOT Rochester. Will absolutely be NBD for us. Please do not get your hopes up, or your shovels out, or raid wegmans! Sorry Folks, but NBD on this one!!!

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  17. Latest GFS starting to get on board with next week's Super Storm. Could be a whopper!

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    Replies
    1. Snowdog never posts something like this -- you must be someone who is looking for a couple of days off from work, as you don't have any vacation time.

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    2. Implying that it's someone of working age...

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  18. Bob Barker Bannister BeautifulJanuary 5, 2016 at 2:50 PM

    I know there has been a lot of clowns on here today. I am sure CCCC and Weatherguy will post their serious and logical opinions at some point. If you think WNY is for sure going to not get a snow storm next Sunday/Monday then you are silly. All the models have a storm not but again the cold air, timing and track not ironed out. It is still 5/6 days out so would not expect those things to be settled until at the earliest Friday. I do believe KW is not wrong because he has been beating the drum about a major east coast storm for a few days now. Time will tell but some of the silly posts here today are a bit childish.

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    Replies
    1. Please KW and JN are always beating the drum about these things; how else would they get people to watch their weather reports. Remember they predicted Winter Storm Watches to go up this past Sunday.

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    2. Same way every other Met gets an audience. Your slander and agenda is getting old.

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  19. There are also imposters again. Snowdog above is not me.

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    Replies
    1. Poor Snowdog, somehow you get the imposter every year.

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    2. Posting through a social media account solves a number of problems ;)

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  20. Lol what an absolute garbage parade today. Glad I didn't pop in until just now. Alright time for some sanity...

    1) There will *probably* be *a storm* of *some kind* between the Appalachians and the east coast early next week.
    2) Any snow that happens will almost certainly NOT be excessive or historic owing mainly to sketchy cold sector temps.
    3) There is still disagreement/inconsistency among the model guidance, with the GFS being the only model showing no storm (as per usual).
    4) Afterwards it looks like a clipper parade with snowbelt lake effect.

    So now we're all up to speed. No superstorms or weenie suicides or any of that.

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    Replies
    1. Oh and as an addendum, significant snow (i.e. 6+") also appears to be rather unlikely due to the issues already mentioned.

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  21. I can usually handle warm systems but this is just flat out obnoxious:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010512/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

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    Replies
    1. That doesn't look right. Is it because it's so weak?

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    2. It's not terribly weak but it also isn't strong enough to undo the damage to our cold air supply that the primary system does. We need a weaker/more southerly GL primary and/or a stronger coastal secondary.

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  22. I love how the NWS discussion just skips right past the storm and devotes two paragraphs to the snowbelts. Yeah because we care so much about South Incestaville getting 4 feet of lake effect in a week like they do EVERY WINTER.

    By the way, the last time we got a substantial lake effect storm in Rochester was February 2012. Before that was December 2010. Both times we had the sort of blocking that hasn't come close to happening in several winters.

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    Replies
    1. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 5, 2016 at 7:26 PM

      I'm from North Incestaville...but still hurts the same ....

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    2. At least North Incestaville has some decent bars.

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  23. Maybe the Lake Erie bands will shift north at times and tickle the ROC metro with some lighter snow. Not uncommon for that to happen. Maybe some brief bursts of heavier rates here and there...that's not unprecedented either.

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  24. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

    Take with a grain of salt for now. But we've been inside that blue blob for two days.

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  25. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/684498478584721408?s=03

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  26. It is disappointing to hear CCCC that there are no large scale storms in sight. I an afraid this winter is going to be a bad one for snow lovers. I thought early next week we had a shot at a blockbuster storm.

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    Replies
    1. 1) Never sell yourself on a blockbuster storm until one becomes virtually inevitable.
      2) Next week is still a large scale storm, just not one with big ticket snowfall. There could be other chances as the cold starts relaxing.
      3) Fear is an illogical response to a stressful situation. We were always in for a rough first half, and even once the cold does come in it can take awhile for true excitement to happen. Same thing happened last year. Patience.

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  27. Just because there are no storms in sight doesn't mean there won't be any storms soon either. I think it was either last year or the year before a few people said nothing insight for weeks and 7 days later we had a big storm, maybe even a blizzard!

    Just like storms regularly appear in models that disappear, the opposite happens

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    Replies
    1. I was just thinking the same thing! Just feels like there is chum in the water ..

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  28. If it means anything, several other NWS offices are more bullish on the possibility of interior snow early next week. No one seems to have any real confidence though.

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  29. As it pertains to west track vs east, I'm currently leaning more towards a west track. More specifically something along the lines of a track from the lower Mississippi River to just west of the Appalachians and across the eastern Great Lakes. That outcome would produce mostly rain with a little backside snow in our region.

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    Replies
    1. Yep that is what it is looking like. Bad for snow lovers again and then we will be spectators to BIG time lake effect that will bury areas east of the lakes. We will get some snow but nothing exciting at all. It will definitely get cold next week, but cold without snow is useless.

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  30. We will get some snow from little weak clippers next week, but no good sized snow storms in sight for us.

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    Replies
    1. Snowdog, If I was so inclined I probably could find your posting from last season where you said that 5-7 days before a sizable snow storm :)

      Delete
  31. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2016 at 6:33 AM

    We had basically nothing but clippers last year; they have the ability to blow up and drop 6-10" here, though probably not with the set up we have in place now or what is predicted to be in place. Last year, those clippers often stalled off Cape Cod and buried Boston on several occasions.

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  32. We could always become the Boston of 2016.

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  33. This winter is heading no where as far as snow. When is the last time we really had like 2 major storms. I remember 1999 where I believe we 20 plus inches and then 2 days later we another 20 plus. I think it was 1999? We are now lucky and happy when we get a storm that gives us 8 inches.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How quickly we forget February of last year or the "blizzard" of 2014.

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    2. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2016 at 7:10 PM

      Or the blizzard of March 2014 that shut down schools for two+ days. Unless we are talking about the same one.

      From a climatological perspective, our area does not experience heavy snow events (10+") all that often. I think the average is three or four times per winter, IIRC. People remember the big events, blend them all together, and think that we get blasted with 300" of snow in a typical winter. Folks, our history is replete with nickel-and-dime events that pile up to around 100" on average, not blockbuster snow bombs.

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    3. Our history of big storms actually isn't lacking at all when measured up against other population centers in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. During the summer I ran through some climo records for various cities going back to 1956, including Rochester, to test the "Rochester never gets big storms" narrative that gets dropped here constantly. I needed a quantitative standard to do this, so I applied a cutoff line of at least 18" of accumulation in 48 hours or less, with at least 12" of that in 24 hours or less, in order for a snowfall to qualify as a "big storm." Using that standard yields the following result: among the many cities I researched (Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC, Burlington VT, Portland ME, Worcester MA and Erie PA), the only one that exceeded Rochester in terms of big storm frequency was Syracuse. I also applied a more restrictive standard of at least 18" in 24 hours, and in that case the only city that bested Rochester was Worcester. So not only is the "Rochester never gets big storms" narrative misguided, it's diametrically opposed to verifiable reality. Now if you consider just the winters after the 1999 double-hitter...well that's a much different story, and probably the source of the aforementioned narrative. We've simply hit a run of bad luck relative to all of those other places, and it's made some people erroneously believe that we live in a big storm screw zone.

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    4. And if you're wondering why I only went back to 1956 when most of those cities have records going back much further, it' because Worcester's records only go back to 1956 and I wanted to be as consistent as possible.

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  34. Anyone noticing a huge differences in temperatures across the area this morning? Kind of weird.

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    Replies
    1. Yes. Airport said 23. My thermometer said 5. When I got to work, car said 10.

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    2. Airport is never correct; even with measuring snow amounts.

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  35. Craig Flint said next week is still murky but ingredients are in place where something significant COULD happen. He seemed to be favoring it. It certainly bears watching!

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  36. Who the hell is Craig Flint?

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    Replies
    1. Which of the local stations is he connected with?

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  37. Craig is not accurate and why are the mets making a huge deal about the arctic monster coming in next week when temps look to be the same as the last 2 days we just had? KW posted when air this could goes over warm lake air interesting things happen or some garbage like that. Did we just not have air like this go over the lakes and very little LES? Plus LES snow is useless only impacts a few areas not fun.

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    Replies
    1. Stop listening to KW and JN - they hype things up for rating purposes.

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  38. GFS just came out and it is horrid looking if you want snow. I guess the pattern change means a few days of cold without snow which stinks. But hope will come when CCCC posts and a few others.

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    Replies
    1. All next week is at or below normal temps. Relax.

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  39. A few weeks ago it was 65 degrees for crying out loud. If you can't see that the pattern has changed, maybe you need to pick up marble collecting or something?

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  40. JN said cold air will collide with warm air and fire up the LES machine in addition to a warm upper level disturbance that could cause some significant back end snow for our area if this thing sets up just right. Just a waiting game now..

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  41. So it looks like we're getting our first big storm after all?? Hooray!!

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  42. There will be a blizzard in the Flower City by February 7th. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. I love the enthusiasm of this blizzard guy! I remind you that he was right about our last blizzard! Hope he's right this time.

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    2. Blizard Guy never gets winded.

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    3. Chris now in PenfieldJanuary 6, 2016 at 7:14 PM

      I envision him looking like Richard Simmons.

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  43. It's Snowdog's favorite pattern: frigid with clippers and snowbelt lake effect :P

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    Replies
    1. It sucks. Nickel and dime snow for us and watching others get buried. LOL

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    2. To be fair, those "others" consist of 18 hillbillies in a trailer park. Kind of the same situation everywhere actually...people living in the most populated areas are routinely left high (or low) and dry (or rainy) while farm and forest country gets oblizzarated. It's the contrast between Denver and the Rockies, the Atlantic coast and the interior mountains, the St. Lawrence river valley and the Canadian Shield. And for us it's the cities and the snowbelts. Our only misstep was living and working among the 95 percent when we could've chosen to breed cattle on the Tug, perpetually buried up to our shriveled knuttsax in powder. What a life that would've been...

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  44. At least KW can now start to tone down about potential big east coast storm. He will be banging the drum about the arctic blast which is nothing out of the ordinary and the HUGE LES that will impact 18 people. This winter sucks!

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  45. Nothing-special arctic outbreaks are the bee's knees IMO. Better dendrite growth and fewer frozen nipples.

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  46. Let's play "spot the sore thumb":

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010612/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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  47. I haven't figured out how to copy/paste on this stupid tablet yet so I didn't see the image. Is it a -NAO? weenies on AmericanWX are getting all riled up.

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    Replies
    1. -NAO is an understatement...try all of Greenland covered in every drop of purple paint that Levi Cowan has available for his height anomaly maps. I doubt it verifies at such a high magnitude, just thought it was interesting to point out. It's a true -NAO too, not a crappy fake one like 1998 had.

      Delete
  48. At this stage Clippers are fine so long as it's cold and we get something white. Would rather have repeated opportunities for snow than put all the eggs in one basket... Which usually disappoints.

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