The Least Snow EVER?!
Ok, lets not get ahead of ourselves...or even kid ourselves. We live in western New York. Winter is a LONG season. It seems like with just 5.6" of snowfall with a quarter of the month almost gone (ok, sort of), we should be on track for some sort of record. It got me thinking - last year we ended up with average seasonal snow (101"), but that's only because we got 57% of that seasonal snow in February and March - late winter. Just for kicks, I looked up the least snow ever recorded in a season - 29.2" back in the 1932-33 season. And in that season - February and March were heavy (relatively) in the snowfall department, with 10.7" and 8", respectively, for 64% of the seasonal snow.
What I'm saying is - don't give up! Like I said, winter is a long season, and we tend to get a good chunk of our snowfall on the back end. So, while our numbers look abysmal right now for snow lovers, there is so much time to make up for it, and it's just silly to even be thinking about the "least snow ever," at least for the season. We already took that for December :)
Be careful, someone might accuse you of "hoping" ;)
ReplyDeleteBy the way, the slowest start to a snow season on record through today's date was...2006-07.
I can't get over the storm track for this weekend and what the models are trying to do with a secondary coastal low eventually phasing back to the low inland. Very strange...
ReplyDeleteThe track will be to our West which we have seen all season. We have to hope for some lake effect next week.
ReplyDeleteBeen hearing that the polar votex will be making a return next week. What are folks seeing?
ReplyDeleteIt will get cold with bouts of light to sometimes moderate snow. The winds will be shifting all week so it looks like now, no one area will get buried. It looks like everyone will get some light snow with 3 clippers and some will get more near the lake with lake effect depending on the wind direction. Not a huge dealer just typical winter weather,
ReplyDeleteIt is a joke how they are trying to sell an arctic blast next week. It is normal winter temperatures and no different than the beginning of this week in fact those were colder. It is the same old same old. Pattern change and do not give up on winter. We will be lucky to get 40 inches this year and may flirt with the record if we count snow fall in the metro.
DeleteI will buy you a coke or beer (depending on age and preference) if we end up below 40 inches.
DeleteOvernight models look worse than ever. This winter sucks.
ReplyDeleteCoincidently, this could be the winter with the Most Whining Ever.
DeleteLet's meet back here in one week and revisit this.
ReplyDeleteJust sad the latest 12zGFS is just horrid. The beat goes on with no storms in sight. Only the great clippers producing 2 inches and the zip code LES. Lets just get right to spring and not waste our winter time. Local Met again makes a fool out of himself pumping up a sizeable EC storm and now he beats the arctic blast like is it PV we had that one winter when in reality they are normal winter temperatures. Oh and lets not forget the major excitement now shifting to the 15 people who will get heavy LES next week. All for the love of ratings so sad.
ReplyDeleteSouthern Tier still looks to get the bulk of the snow Sunday night up to 6"
ReplyDeleteWish it were us... Will be NBD for us
When will Winter Storm Watches go up??
ReplyDelete2017!
ReplyDeleteI repeat... At this point even clippers would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteJHC you need to stop with the run to run of the models insanity. I hope the medicine cabinets are empty. Good god.
ReplyDeletehttp://i.imgur.com/oXRLkAR.gif
ReplyDeleteGlobal models are incompetent at resolving clippers and lake effect. Also they're ticking east with the second weekend storm :^)
ReplyDelete12zEuro horrid for this weekend and next week for WNY the beat goes on! But we do have CCCC the hope meiser.
ReplyDeleteI saw two or three clippers and a phasing Gulf low at the very end. Seasonably cold temps throughout the run after this weekend. Not horrid in the slightest, more like pedestrian. December was horrid.
ReplyDeleteStill a bad track for the second storm btw, I was just trying to stir the pot with the east ticks comment. Seems to have worked :^)
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness though, we might have an outside shot at some snow after a changeover if the new trend keeps up. Doubt it with such a strong system though, these things like to trend NW in the short range so I'm expecting a reversal soon.
ReplyDeleteAlways great when you get a strong winter system and get a rain storm in January this winter sucks.
DeleteGreat seasonably cold temperatures that sure signifies that pattern change we have all waited so long for. Also not sure where you are seeing the ticking east on the weekend storm? Plus ticking east will not help WNY from having to get their umbrellas out so again there is that slight bit of hope you keep throwing out. Also it looks after about a week of seasonably cold temperatures we are back to unseasonably warm temperatures so forget any storm potential for the next 3 weeks. This winter is horrible and we may set the record for the lest snowfall ever.
ReplyDeleteWe're going from once in a millenium warmth in December to seasonably cold in January, with all teleconnections reversed from what they were before. That's a pattern change. The end.
DeleteCan't see the eastward ticks? View all of these in order and follow the bouncing ball:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010618/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_15.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010700/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_15.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010706/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_14.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010712/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_14.png
Also...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010712/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016010712/gem-ens_T2ma5d_us_3.png
"""unseasonably warm"""
More like unseasonably average.
Exciting clippers, unseasonably average temps and even you knowing this is not going to tick further SE but like you said more NW but keep hope alive CCCC!
DeleteI'm simultaneously banking on a NW trend with warmer temps and more rain, AND keeping hope alive? Y'all crazy boi.
DeleteNo storms for the next 3 weeks was quoted about a week before our last blizzard.
DeleteLesson... you can't say "no storms for the next 3 weeks" without sounding silly.
So now anon 2:33 you are predicting a blizzard? Are you the mark it down blizzard person?
DeleteNope not predicting a blizzard. Just say the presence of nothing 5 to 20 days out is as meaningful as the presence of something over the same time frame.
DeleteIt is snowing in Flagstaff Arizona though. 7" and counting.
ReplyDeleteSmells like Frank-footers in here!
ReplyDeleteWell if we can't have any real snow can we have some fantasy snow?...
ReplyDeleteBecause here's a question I've always had but until now have had no one to ask. What is the worst snow storm in terms of inches that could possibly happen in the Monroe County area? In other words, design a perfect storm scenario that could possibly happen, no matter how unlikely, given Rochester's location and real-life weather patterns. Feel free to get as technical as you like...c'mon snowdog, cccc, spreadsheetguy et al, bring on the hardcore weather porn to get me through all these lonely snowless nights.
Oh my...now that's a good one! I can't wait to see CCCC's response to this. I bet he already has some kind of weather simulator software that's already produced it.
DeleteI'll do you one better...a real storm that actually happened way back in 1900:
Deletehttp://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/20cr/amer/1900030118.gif
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16475-1283628992.png
43.5" in Rochester including just shy of 30" on March 1st alone. When I went back through the records for the time period of this storm I saw that the total snowfall was calculated with a 10:1 ratio, but temps looked supportive of somewhat higher ratios. So it's possible that the 43.5" total is a slightly conservative estimate. In any event that's probably near the max potential for a storm in our region. Teleconnection-wise we had a strongly negative NAO, near neutral AO, perhaps a slightly negative PNA and a modestly positive EPO. And if you look at most of our big storms from the past, the most common element by far is the negative NAO. There are some exceptions, but for the most part our big storm patterns are fueled by pronounced Greenland blocking with some relaxation of the other teleconnections. As for the exceptions, they usually had one other thing going for us besides the NAO. Basically if we want a big storm then we need at least one teleconnection firmly on our side, preferably the NAO, but too many is detrimental.
In other headlines: Local Man Seeks A Life
DeleteHow about the great lake snow of March 1999? If I remember correctly (and I may not, so feel free to correct if I'm off), we had about two feet on a Thursday, a day of sun in between, and another two feet on Saturday. I remember snow rates of 3-4 inches per hour at its peak. I know it's really two storms, not one - and it was lake snow, not a synoptic storm - but that's the worse I've ever seen. Lived in the city back then, and street didn't get plowed until Sunday morning - homebound for three full days. And I think it was pretty much area-wide north of the Thruway, not just the usual corridors.
ReplyDeleteIt was two synoptic storms with a substantial lake contribution:
Deletehttp://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/ncep/amer/1999030406.gif
http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/cartes/ncep/amer/1999030700.gif
Two feet from #1, nearly 20 inches from #2. #1 was severely underforecasted, which caused huge problems when it became much worse than expected. #2 hitting a few days later served to exacerbate the issue.
Thanks for the clarification - and again, if memory serves, there hadn't been a ton of snow up to that point that winter.
DeleteThere were so many stuck/abandoned cars on 490/590, it looked like a parking lot, not a highway.
DeleteThat whole winter was basically an epic two week period in January plus those two storms. Otherwise it would've been one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record.
DeleteFrom the NY Times:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/1999/03/07/nyregion/after-the-blizzard-rochester-is-walloped-by-a-second-snowstorm.html
March 99 was epic with back to back lake events.
ReplyDeleteI'll take one February 1960 please. Second snowiest February on record with two huge storms in less than a week. Or how about a repeat of January 1978...which had not one, not two, not three, but FOUR major snowstorms in a two week span. Largest was nearly 18 inches and snow depth maxed out at nearly three feet. That wasn't even the biggest storm of the season, and was just barely the greatest snow depth...we hit 30 inches again a few weeks later after getting over two feet of snow from the Blizzard of 78. Yes, THAT Blizzard of 78.
ReplyDeleteCCCC you're just fear mongering again none of those storms were a big deal
ReplyDeleteEl oh el. It seems very dirge-like in here.
DeleteAt this point I could post what I'm having for breakfast tomorrow and still be accused of something.
ReplyDelete"CCCC stop with the hype that steak and egg sandwich isn't a big deal."
"Keep hoping CCCC but there aren't any waffles in sight for the next 3 weeks. This egg mcmuffin sucks."
"Latest GFS is horrid for pancake lovers. No butter anywhere, just syrup in the typical areas. But as per usual CCCC will assure us that the bacon is coming."
66 was the best one....
ReplyDelete66 and 93 are tied in my hierarchy. 93 had thundersnow at the onset with 60 mph gusts.
ReplyDeleteWhat of massive -NAO? Does it become detrimental at some point?
ReplyDeleteIf the Greenland high component of the block sticks too far down into Canada, or if the low component is too strong/too far west, then it leads to suppression and storms will whiff south. I'm not entirely sure of the risk of that happening here but it's nothing to lose sleep over just yet. Some on AmericanWx are talking about the development a 50/50 low, which would contribute to suppression. As of now I see no evidence of such a feature in any of the ensemble means.
DeleteI hope not. Snowdog will have a stroke if the Mid Atlantic is getting feet of snow while we get flurries landing on frozen grass.
DeleteContinue to hear and read about the polar votex headed our way, and that this time it will be even colder than it was previously. What are folks hearing, reading, and seeing.
ReplyDeleteStop anon 8:05. The models show nothing except NBD around WNY. It is a sad sickening winter.
ReplyDeleteI'm ok with a warm winter. As long as it doesn't have a lot of cold rain.
DeleteI just want to ride my snowmobile. If we go another couple weeks with nothing then I'm going to switch sides and be a warminster. How the snow gets on the ground doesn't interest me much.
DeletePlease No warm. Some people ski. At least if it's cold enough snow can be made.
DeleteI was not claiming that there would be another Polar Vortex; I was simply asking if anyone was hearing or seeing the same from the various News Stations. That is all.
DeleteI'm starting to see the positive side in this weather and here's why.
ReplyDeleteStatistically, it would be such an anomaly to end up with say, 30 inches of snow for the season (or wherever current numbers project us to land - here in Clarendon we haven't even had 5 inches yet), that it's inevitable we're going to receive snow eventually to balance things out. The way I see it, the longer we wait, the chances for some really big events increase. It's like Mother Nature winding her arm up behind her for the really big punch. When it lands is debatable, but in my mind the fact that eventually we will be getting something big is not.
SW
Actually I think this year is Nature's way of balancing things out. The last 2 years have been extremely cold and snowy at times. We were due for a more moderate winter. Nobody should be surprised.
DeleteI agree, to a point. But there's no way it's going to balance out this lopsided. As someone else likes to say on this blog...
DeleteThere will be a blizzard (or at least a major storm) in the Rochester area sometime in the next 80 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And all we can do in the meantime is let the anticipation build and wait.
Wow!!! Flagstaff has seen 31" of snow this week alone. I have to say I a jealous. We are 30" below normal in snowfall.
ReplyDeleteHey Anon 9:10 -- I never claimed to be an expert as others who come to this blog are. I like to hear what the local Weather Professionals are say/forecasting, and then come to the site to see what those who blog are also saying. Sometimes I might ask a question or two; but most it helps to have more information as to how to plan the day, week or if you travel allot -- you just has a little bit more information than you did before. Since when is it a crime to ask a question in order to have a little bit better picture of what the weather might be or what is heading our way.
ReplyDeleteShort answer: a lobe of the tropospheric PV will descend into Canada early next week, but the cold air it delivers will be modified due to a lack of snow cover to our north and west. I don't see it being colder than last time, but it does have some staying power.
DeleteThanks CCCC
DeleteWouldn't be surprised if the midweek clipper provoked a late coastal redevelopment and caused light snow to linger for several hours.
ReplyDeleteWill Winter Storm Watches be issued??
DeleteNot a chance. That's not really a valid question to be asking anyway since what I posted was just speculation. But it isn't anything close to significant, just slightly interesting.
DeleteThere is nothing in the long term models that is remotely significant. This winter continues to suck.
ReplyDeleteI think you said that a week before our last blizzard!
DeleteReally looking forward to a fast starting winter so we can replace the daily "this winter sucks" posts with daily "prepare for an early spring" posts.
ReplyDeleteSigns that an early spring may be on the way. You are so smart CCCC please posts some more hope tidbits for next week. A pattern change a pattern change to normal temperatures whoopy.
ReplyDeleteWhat signs?
DeleteDo you really need to ask?
DeleteWell I'm hoping, just once, this poster actually had something of substance to add.
DeleteHa ha KW who was beating the drum last weekend about a possible big east coast storm this weekend has now shifted to next weekend and the following week. He said this week cold with 2/3 clippers and shifting bands of LES snow great normal temps and 2 inches of snow for all. Then says the following week the pattern changes to high chances for sizeable east coast storms. Hello keep throwing darts like many on this blog do.
ReplyDeleteIf you're still biting Kevin's plastic lure after all this time then I don't feel sorry for you. He still isn't wrong when he says the pattern looks ripe for east coast storms (he's one of many experts talking about it), and it's your own fault if you take it to mean that we're going to get buried under several feet of snow. "Coastal storm" is a vague term after all, and it could easily imply a snow bonanza for I-95 with only nickels and dimes in WNY. Time will tell. Pattern first, specifics later.
ReplyDeleteNWS on the midweek clipper:
ReplyDelete"THIS CLIPPER WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL FOR ALL. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ESTIMATE ANY SNOW AMOUNT FROM THIS CLIPPER BUT ADVISORY LEVEL TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION."
Just as a reminder, advisory range is generally around 3-6 inches. This being a clipper system I have doubts of seeing that much outside of favored SW flow enhancement areas.
From the NWS:
ReplyDeleteWHILE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT TIMES EAST
OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE GENESEE RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS. HOWEVER...TRAVELERS MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERSTATE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
When the talk is for "several feet" in the belts, saying most of the snow will dodge us isn't really saying much. Plus we've known this would be the case for several days now. The current GFS has this regarding snowfall through the end of next weekend:
Deletehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160108/12Z/f222/acckucherasnowne.png
We nickel and dime.
We had one or two clippers over perform last year.
ReplyDeleteIf the clipper can redevelop off the coast quickly enough and in close enough proximity, then maybe advisory amount could be realized with Lake Ontario enhancement.
ReplyDeleteMaybe more hope from CCCC thanks again for keeping hope alive. CCCC are you related to Jesse Jackson?
ReplyDeleteThat depends, did Jesse Jackson tell everyone that January would turn colder despite a certain anon insisting it wouldn't? Yeah, didn't think so ;)
DeleteThat was unreal that you predicted a patter change with seasonable temperatures in mid January. You should be Rochester's Most Accurate! What next June will turn warmer? You are not impressive until you predict a storm coming instead of hoping for it.
ReplyDeleteLol don't try to reframe what I said. You said over and over that the pattern wouldn't change. The pattern changed. You lost. Deal with it little man. And go learn the difference between "hope" and "speculation" one of these days.
DeletePretty sure we are going to come close to doubling our seasons snow total this week.
ReplyDeleteNormally that would be an impressive notion to consider. Not this winter so far.
DeleteLol Caledonia, funny way to put it. Hopefully we double or triple :)
DeleteI'll take octuple thank you sir.
DeleteGot news for you anon I followed this blog religiously last year and it was cccc that first put the potential for our big February storm in writing...if I remember it was 7 or more days out, he even beat KW to the punch. Don't want to stoke anybody's ego but cccc's analysis is good enough to keep a lot of people, probably even the majority, following this blog.
ReplyDeleteBut then again don't feel too left out because trolls keep it interesting too.
SW
To be fair I also pointed out a number of storm windows that failed to amount to anything. But that's just how this game works...many seemingly favorable opportunities will ultimately fail to produce anything of interest. Some ultimately will produce. I'm not here to impress anyone or try to be the hotshot who called it first (see: Bastardi, Joe). If I see hints of a storm signal I'll post about it in vague terms and wait for stronger signals to emerge. If they do then that's great, now we'll start to examine things further. If they don't and our window closes then whatever, we'll put it behind us and look for the next one whenever it comes. Rinse and repeat.
DeleteI distinctly remember CCCC being way ahead of the curve on that one. True, he does tend to be glass half full, and he puts out lots of conjecture. BUT that's what we eat up here. He's very clear about what is conjecture and what is expectation and it's always backed in "where does this guy find the time to read all those models. Must be nice to be young. I sort of follow what he's saying way."
DeleteBut he adds a lot of substance to this blog. One might go so far as to say the majority of it.
He's not always right. But he always has an opinion. With detailed reasoning.
He may catch some hate or hot dogs from time to time. But I appreciate his posts. He knows way more about forecasting than I ever will.
CCCC was an early predictor of that one, but Blizzard Guy had him beat by a mile :)
DeleteBlizzard Guy is a true clairvoyant.
DeleteJust looked it up OCD as I am January 22nd 2015 cccc posted a convergence of factors made groundhog day a period to watch out for, I got 18 inches from that storm.
ReplyDeleteSW
Most of us got well over a foot from that storm, excluding a small area centered right at the airport spotter's office.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, speaking of storm windows, the next one is late next weekend. Make of it what you will...or alternatively continue to rant about how this winter sucks and we won't get any storms. Your choice.
I don't know how people remember weather events like that. I don't even remember if it was last year I had to snow blow trails in the yard so my dog could poop. I think it was but I'm not 100 percent on that.
ReplyDeleteDo not forget the blizzard guy's great prediction.
ReplyDeleteModels continue to get worse and produce no significant storms. This winter sucks!
ReplyDeletehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160109/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowne.png
ReplyDeletehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160109/12Z/f384/acckucherasnowne.png
Lots of snow lovers would be happy. Too bad it's all make believe right now.
There will be a blizzard within The Flower City by the next 21 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteDid you spill some syrup on your keyboard? Certain buttons, including your spacebar, seem to get stuck.
DeleteTechnically speaking, we are only a little more than 1/5 of the way through winter. Funny if you went through the blog archives for last January many of the complaints sounded the same...then along came February!
ReplyDeleteSurprise LES watch Wyoming county. More to come but of course not Monroe.
ReplyDeleteHow is that surprising?
ReplyDeleteJoke it is not a surprise but Monroe county would be a surprise.
ReplyDeleteMost of the lake effect next week will be East of the lakes where they will measure the snow in feet. We all should get a few inches here and there but not a huge deal for most. It will definitely be cold but no storms in sight except for maybe next weekend.
ReplyDeleteThis blog reads like a broken record EVERY winter ALL winter, regardless of the actual weather. I personally cant wait for the "nickel and dime" snow. Light snow often pays much more than one big storm. I have 3 hours OT so far this winter, bring on the clippers!!!
ReplyDeleteWell guess what HP these clippers may bring an inch at most they are not impressive. If you are in traditional LES areas then you will make money.
ReplyDeleteWhy complain? Most of our annual snow is from lake effect and it adds up just like synoptic snow. We will get some snow next week so just enjoy it and stop complaining.
ReplyDeleteIt's a big step up from where we were in December. At least it's going to look and feel like winter. I'm looking forward to it myself.
ReplyDeleteYes,definitely a big step in the right direction.
DeleteLook forward to what? An inch of snow and no storms. Boring!!!!!
ReplyDeleteMore like an inch or two every couple of days. Still better than zero inches and highs in the 50s. Learn to appreciate it.
ReplyDeleteRight anon 6:52 we are almost at mid January and they are getting excited about seasonal temperatures and an inch of snow this week. I believe because it signifies that long awaited pattern change to real winter that they been banging the drum about since November. We have lowered our winter standards in WNY so sad. This winter sucks bring on the spring pattern change.
ReplyDeleteThe pattern change that is right on schedule.
DeleteLowered our standards? I didn't know we had standards. I think we have what we have, and that's it. No one on here is using terms such as "snowmaggedan" "buried" "bombed (at least in reference to snow)"...I see "pattern change" a lot...but, that is exactly what it is with highs in the 20s as far as the eye can see, when a mere 16 days ago, I took 70 mile motorcycle ride in 65 F temps...
DeleteAgain, a typical winter here features multiple nickel-and-dime snow events, and only a few, at best, 10+" storms. This looks pretty normal to me, just a late start.
Seasons in seasons, oh woe is us...
DeleteImagine a person who complains every day about things beyond their control...
ReplyDeleteCold is here and the southern jet is going to be firing bullets into the pattern... how about we calm down and watch what happens?
ReplyDeleteThis is why I predicted 40" of snow for February and 20-something inches for March on SSG's Table of Winter Weather Wizards' Predictions.
DeleteLet's go to the video tape.
DeleteYes. You went with 40 in feb. 25 in march. That would be something.
To see the prediction or to make your own mid winter updates predictions go here or click on my name.
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ERPBMYbYkCS-IaXLaHHa3ufhQ0WLGvzyoACwuGQwPEU/viewform
Just testing my Google account sign-in attempt.
ReplyDeleteJust seeing if my profile pic works.
ReplyDeleteDammit.
DeleteThat should do it.
ReplyDeleteHa! That is a pic from last summer's bike trip around NYS...this particular photo is on the bridge crossing between mainland USA/NY and Barnhart Island in the St. Lawrence River, just outside Massena, NY.
DeleteFor the record, the lowest temp up there so far is about -10 F. Both sides of my family from that area.
Neato.
DeleteModels still showing no big storms and that this big pattern change is NBD this week and inch of snow and normal temperatures for this time of the year. This winter continues to suck and hopefully we have another great pattern change to spring.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the breathtaking update.
DeleteI will take 1 inch of snow over 1 inch of rain any day during the winter. Thank the lord for the pattern change and typical winter weather.
Delete"No storms" isn't even accurate...the 12z GFS has a couple storms and the 06z had no fewer than four. They don't necessarily hit Rochester, but the fact they exist in a digital world at a long lead is all you're looking for right now.
DeleteCan I tell you how sick I am of rain in January. This is getting ridiculous. Come on snow.
ReplyDeleteI think winter locks in for the rest of January, but storms. Who knows.
ReplyDeleteI agree, SnowDog. I am only a little leery about the end of January. This upcoming cold snap (and, despite my Anonymous friends saying this is just "normal", daytime highs in the 20s is actually 5-10 F below normal) is predicted to last about 10-14 days; if there isn't widespread snowcover in the Northeast, any shift to a SW flow can warm us back up again. I hope it just gets to 32-35 for highs for a few days at the end of the month before another arctic front/clipper brings us back to the chill for most/all of February.
DeleteComplaining about getting typical winter weather after the stretch we just endured is like complaining about getting fast food after starving on the street for a week.
ReplyDeleteWell...if it's Arby's...there are some exceptions...
DeleteDo believe at the very least the end of next weekend and beginning of the week has to be watched. Can you see MLK Day storm?
ReplyDeletePending the resolution of about 6 billion miles of ensemble spread...yes, early next week is a time period to watch. At the very least the operational models seem to be arriving upon the consensus of there even being a storm at all.
ReplyDeleteBlizzard guy should keep both his typing fingers warmed up. Maybe some mittens with just the pointer fingers still attached? You never know with the analogs that are being thrown around.
ReplyDeleteDisclaimer: The proceeding was not a forecast.
I think I meant preceding?
DeletePreceding. And I've also noticed some big ticket analogs popping up, most notably from the CPC.
DeleteIts appearance was very brief but I just managed to spot what has to be the most vivid rainbow I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteWhile snow amounts this evening will be minor, the newly issued SWS sure doesn't mince words:
ReplyDelete"...NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH 7 PM.... THEN RAPID FORMATION OF BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS THIS EVENING...
RAIN WILL RAPIDILY CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO... WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT TIMES... ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIT THE REGION OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY 7PM. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERORATE IN THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW...WITH POOR VISIBILTIY... BLOWING SNOW... AND ROADS BECOMING SLICK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUNGE TO BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WHERE AREA ROADWAYS REMAIN WET...THIS COULD RAPIDLY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES."
The updated AFD mentions the possibility of a squall line from the midweek clipper with blowing snow behind it, and also gives a tease for the late weekend storm possibility. Bumpy road ahead.
Wind is starting to crank.
ReplyDeleteCame to say the samething. I can actually feel the house shaking. I think some folks will lose power.
DeleteA buddy of mine says he already lost it south of Clyde. Not sure he had it in the first place, though.
DeleteLooks like the snow band is falling apart. We may not get much out of it at all. Not that we were gonna get much anyway.
ReplyDeleteLooks pretty healthy to me.
ReplyDeleteNow it looks like it's tapering a little bit. Woe is us :P
ReplyDeleteNice job of the NWS letting us now about the severity of the winds. A lot of people have lost power and we has an advisory with 59mph winds and maybe higher. The NWS in Buffalo is useless.
ReplyDeleteThey issued a wind advisory for gusts that ultimately reached wind advisory levels. Plus the advisory text literally says the following:
ReplyDelete"IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN A FEW TREE LIMBS BEING BLOWN DOWN ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES."
Slightly over 1000 RG&E customers in Monroe County are currently without power out of nearly 290000 total. So the NWS forecasted advisory level gusts and warned of isolated power outages. We got advisory level gusts and isolated power outages. They did just fine as per usual.
Since when have 59mph winds been an advisory level? You always a love fest with NWS in Buffalo. They are much better out of Binghamton.
ReplyDeleteThat was one of the higher gusts for places in the advisory area. Most were sub-warning level.
ReplyDeletepossible synoptic snow next weekend, interesting to see where les sets up for 2nd round.
ReplyDeletePicked up no snow last night. Ground is still bare.
ReplyDeleteDid not pick up any snow last night either. That storm at the end of the week/next weejend looks to go West again as of right now.
ReplyDeleteHad a friend who was driving back from Buffalo last night, and she said it was difficult to know where the road was, let along stay within the white lines.
ReplyDeleteHa ha all models over night now show the storm next Sunday going west of us as usual. I guess El Nino just will not give up. Once again we are stuck with no storms this pattern sucks as does the winter.
ReplyDeleteSorry Folks, but next weekend's storm will absolutely be NBD for all of us!!! Not even going to clip us!!! NBD Folks!!
ReplyDeleteIf it showed it burying us you wouldn't believe it. But you believe it now?
DeleteLatest Euro places a synoptic Bomb over the Ohio Valley and into NW PA next sunday and into MLK Day. This is our big chance. Will it trend up our way or be a Mississippi cutter? Precipitation shield should be full enough to reach us if enough energy is transferred from the meso-cyclone, giving us at least some kind of measurable snow. There is also a possibility this phases with the coastal low along the atlantic ridge and becomes a Super Storm, if that low sits somewhere along the Del Marva. Then we would be in really good shape for significant snow. But as of now it looks likely we are going to see "measurable" snow next sunday into Monday. I would bet on Winter Storm Watches going up around Friday of this week!
ReplyDeleteI fully expect at least one model run to show this blasting the Carolina's before the actual track is honed in on.
DeleteHave to say the only local weather people talking about the potential of significant snow for this coming weekend are KW and JN.
DeleteThat wouldn't be terrible if it happens like that.
DeleteHa ha anon 8:41 Superstorm you are really in La La land.
DeleteSaying the storm doesn't even clip us is La La land.
DeleteThis thing is still out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.. not sure when it gets into range for good sampling but anything can happen between now and when that occurs.
DeleteThere is much panic all over the internet. MJO phase two. Epic pattern wasted. Spring type warmth if February. I'm moving to Antarctica.
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to panic, but RAIN absolutely sucks and should be outlawed for the months December through February :)!
DeleteWith that said, winter is arriving, at least winter like temps. December was over 12 degrees above normal. January even with 50 yesterday is only 3 degrees above normal. Likely by weeks end we will be about normal. Beyond next week it looks more like normal temps to me, which means some days above average and some days below. As for the snow, who knows-- but it will happen at some point, probably when least expected.
I'm not going to panic either. I daydream of winter and snow in the middle of July so it's pretty disappointing when it doesn't come. I also spend a fair amount of cash getting ready for snowmobiling.. so seeing grass in the heart of winter tends to grind my gears.
DeleteBut because I can't do a dang thing about it I just try to look at positives. Lower heating costs, done a lot of outdoor work, less salt on my truck etc.
Yes that does suck and ElNino is a real #%$@#! The good news is there will be a ton of snow in the favorite snowbelt areas east of Erie and Ontario. Tow and go enjoy!
DeleteRemember in February of 2015; we received 45+ inches of snow, and one of the coldest months recorded. Remember if you lived in the City and parked on identified streets, there was a period of time in which you were mandated to park in one of the downtown parking garages so that snow could be removed as it was piled so high, and cars were unable to park up against the curbs, thus snow plows had difficulty getting down some of the side streets. Why do I remember, as a friend of mine was one which works til 11pm, and had to park her car in one of the garages and then walk from the South Avenue Garage to where she lived on Oxford Street. Try doing that at 11om at night when it is 10 below zero. So lets now complain too much about the lack of cold and snow.
ReplyDeletePlease use spell check and proper grammer. It is very difficult to follow your story anonymous when it falls apart at the end. Is 11om in another time zone? And do you mean-"let's not complain too much about the lack of cold and snow."
Deleteyou might want to use spell check
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