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Monday, January 11

Big snow for some, not much for others

The much advertised pattern change that we've been talking about for over a week now has arrived. A deep trough of low pressure is developing across the Northeast and will remain in place for at least the next week bringing plenty of cold for everyone. The snow part of the forecast? Well that's a bit tricky.


As is usually the case in this type of pattern, those favored snow belts east of Lake Erie and Ontario will get clobbered this week with lake effect. The first event is already ongoing and will continue through tonight delivering a fresh 1-3 feet of snow to the Tug Hill and over a foot in areas south of Buffalo. The second event will get going Tuesday evening and then last into Thursday morning and this could be even more significant with several feet of snow burying locations east of the lakes once again. 

If you're hoping for a big snow in Rochester, it looks like we'll miss out once again. Wind direction is key when it comes to lake effect and it looks like a westerly flow will keep the majority of the snow east of the lakes through the week. 

A clipper system will bring some opportunity for snow to all areas on Tuesday but only a few inches at most. Gusty winds could cause some blowing snow for a brief time Tuesday afternoon. Behind this system, wind direction will take on a slightly more northwest component and this could put locations right along the lake and into Wayne county in line to see more significant amounts. 

Here's a look at snowfall amounts from now through Wednesday afternoon and notice that the heaviest snow falls east of the lakes with just a minor accumulation in Rochester. 



Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

212 comments:

  1. That is great news for Monroe county a lot of snow! Matt of course did not mention the potential of a larger scale storm next weekend because there is not one. This winter continues to be non-existent and a joke.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think we need the 4 C'sons to get in here and tell us what the heck is going on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two things:

      1) A certain anon apparently never gets tired of saying the same three sentences every 6 hours.
      2) This:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016011112/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011112/gfs_z500_mslp_us_24.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016011112/gem_z500_mslp_us_22.png

      Would be rain/mix over to snow verbatim, but the models still don't have a solid handle on things. Last night's GFS had a cutter to James Bay which made utterly zero sense given the upcoming pattern, and the overall trend today has been somewhat wintrier. I don't think we're done seeing shifts regardless of what direction things eventually go.

      Delete
  3. So CCCC does not give an opinion on what will happen just hope again. He knows this is not a big storm either way so not sure why he just does not say it. He always plays the middle so he loos right either way. A wonderful place to be and I thin he may be a real meteorologist?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Check your spelling before you post..."loos" and "thin". But who knows may be he is KW or JN on the site.

      Delete
  4. This is typical for lake effect snow. East of the lakes always gets dumped on. That is ski country. Not many people live there. Rochester normally does not get BIG lake effect events. We are not in the right location for that. I think we will all see a few inches this week but nothing compared to the non-populated areas East of the lakes. Rochester, Syracuse and Buffalo will miss out on the lake effect.

    ReplyDelete
  5. JFC what a fantastic start to this thread. All of the usual cliches in near record time. Here's my opinion on the weekend: it's such a messy and complicated setup that no one can even hope to know what will happen yet. Buffalo is getting their lake effect later today and maybe again later this week, and Syracuse is under a watch right now, so we're kind of alone in that department. Too bad so sad, whatever.

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  6. Just For Cuteness or is that a weather model?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jesus F. Christ. I'm sure you can figure out what the F stands for...

      Delete
    2. Sarcasm doesn't work well on the internet. I knew what it stands for.

      Delete
  7. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Definition of blizzard again? I'm not against the idea of a snowstorm occurring in 8 days but what parameters make a storm a blizzard?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=b

      Blizzard- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:

      - Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
      - Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile)

      Delete
    2. It is also "Blizzard Guy", as I am calling him now, beginning his thread of see, "I said there would be a blizzard in the Flower City within the next....day/week". Did it last winter, and will continue to do it again this winter.

      Who knows maybe during the SPRING he will begin to predict "There will be a massive flood in the Flower City within the next....day/weeks. Mark it down". Never fails to amaze.

      Delete
    3. Blizzard Guy has been a running gag since forever.

      Delete
  9. Just because Monroe County won't see the blunt of the snow or LES; does not mean those who live outside of Monroe County and travel to work within Monroe County won't be impacted. Think of those who travel the Parkway or 104. Maybe Anon 1:26 did not take their happy pill today, and is having a grumpy Monday. Lighten up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And a grumpy Tuesday, and a grumpy Wednesday, and a grumpy Thursday, and a grumpy Friday, and...

      Delete
  10. Hey guys. Even though I wish the guy who keeps posting that this winter sucks every 5 minutes and I wish he/she would stop he/she is stating what we all really think right now. This winter, so far, has been less than stellar in the snow department. We are 32" below normal already and with not much snow in the forecast this week that deficit will only grow or stay about the same. We all want snowstorms and a lot of snow on the ground if we are honest with ourselves. I know I do. I am very disappointed in this winter so far. Hopefully it will change. We have the cold now we just need some storms.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Wow this has gotten bad since I left. Been reading ever since but haven't posted, mostly because when I try it doesn't work from my phone...oh and we moved back to Farmington.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You moved away from Farmington? When and why and where, and why did you move back?

      Delete
    2. My first house back in 2004 was in Marion... We moved to get closer to where I worked. We thought we wanted to get back to small town etc but it wasn't what we thought it would be and when our dream property went up for sale we went for it.

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    3. So to clarify we moved from Marion to Farmington and then back to Marion for a year and now back in Farmington for good. Yes we are crazy in some peoples eyes but we did what we felt was right and are really happy now. I'm glad to be back on here and agree with you, perseverating on the lack of snow or complaining doesn't do a damn but of good

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    4. Poverty and issues related to it continue to escalate in Wayne Co., unfortunately. I work in the County and we were reviewing socio-economic/demographic data yesterday regarding school enrollment trends, household income, etc. All heading in a negative direction. I lived in the County for 13+ years.

      Delete
  12. wont be the life altering schedule crippling storm people are wishing for but tomorrow night into Wednesday should be pretty snowy. At least in comparison to what we have seen.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I know I like playing the role of Mr. Glass Half Full on here but I'm well aware of how atrocious this winter has been so far. I'd just rather not ruminate on it because it's utterly useless to do so, if not outright unhealthy. And doing it openly just promotes a toxic atmosphere. So let's focus on the positives, namely the following: soon we will get snow and it will stick for longer than five minutes this time. Would much rather have a big storm, but that's not in the cards for now. No choice but to play the hand anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Selfishly I've been ok with the winter this far because we just moved and that December weather was nice for moving...but now I'd like enough to ride the snowmobiles. We bought two used ones over the summer and it would be awesome to take a ride around the 8 acres that came with our house.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol selfishly? Let's not pretend we're not a significant minority in our weather preferences, most of the population probably has this winter in their top 3 of all time. So if anything you've held a very generous attitude...now please release your toehold on the jet stream and give me a blizzard dammit.

      Delete
    2. This is the latest in any winter I've gone without being out for a ride. Been a snowmobiler for 15 years.

      Delete
  15. Have we given up on the 17th/18th?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I haven't. It just hasn't looked like a whopper for awhile. I'm actually a bit tentative about rooting for it to happen because I'm not sure how I feel about driving 300 miles in a snowstorm >___>

      Delete
  16. However much snow I need to effectively run the snowmobiles on, that's how much snow I want that's all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NYS law says a minimum of three inches; however, I wouldn't ride on that unless it consistent of a rock hard two inch base, and an inch of fluff on top for lube. You and I are probably the only ones on here who know what this means, and know that it isn't a sexual reference. Perhaps HP.

      Delete
  17. I'm thinking of a phrase that starts with S...

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016011118/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016011112/gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011106/gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011112/gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011118/gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    "Longer term we continue to expect that variability in the polar vortex to strongly influence Northern Hemisphere (NH) weather patterns. We are more confident that a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event (T-S-T) is underway (Cohen et al. 2007) that will result in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Details of which are given below but based on a correct anticipation of a T-S-T we expect the following AO trends long-term. The AO will trend negative this week as geopotential heights continue to build across the Arctic. However next week the predicted strong pulse of vertical energy will force a positive trend in the tropospheric AO but a negative trend in the stratospheric AO. Once the SSW peaks the tropospheric AO will once again trend negative and the overall negative AO should persist longer than the initial negative AO event that is currently ongoing and is predicted to initiate the SSW."

    ReplyDelete
  18. Said it before and will say it again the longer we go snowless the bigger the payout when it comes...meteorologically there may be no scientific basis for that statement but the laws of probability are very real and are now on our side. When the winter guns cut loose it's going to be a doozy, waiting for it is half the fun.

    ReplyDelete
  19. If we break into a historic late winter after enduring our first half trash parade then it's gonna be nothing short of unmitigated catharsis. Not expecting that but I still think we make up a good deal of ground to avoid notoriety.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Pertaining to late weekend: trend = friend. Disclaimer: still early and sampling won't occur until early Thursday, plus it's still not a big storm situation. Still distraught that the GFS took only 24 hours to shift from a Chicago cutter to a KTOL -> KDOV transfer. All while the Euro op and Euro parallel shift by 50 miles at most. Models from across the pond are clearly still superior to the American models.

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  21. This clipper is extremely weak. We will be lucky to see an inch-probably not that much. Monoroe county is surrounded by warnings and advisories.

    ReplyDelete
  22. The system this weekend looks to go West and then split as a weak coastal low takes over. Mostly rain for us it looks like maybe changing to a little snow. Very light accumulation if any. Uugggg!!! This is getting depressing.

    ReplyDelete
  23. RC sums this winter up in a short sentence. LOL

    What a pathetic winter it has been so far. Almost 33" below normal snowfall.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Has anyone else noticed that KW keeps using and referring to the Eruo model for snow fall predictions and totals. He starts off by saying that he does not reference the model that often nor likes to use it; but then he goes ahead and uses it. What's the deal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KW just throws out possible storms to get people to watch his weather. He says possible storm on east coast a wee or more in advance all the time. RC in the morning never does that.

      Delete
    2. KW is the only local guy that remembers some of us like snow and cod.

      Delete
  25. Models over night stink once again for this weekend "Storm". This thing is weak anyway so not sure why everyone is even looking at it. This winter still sucks and will continue to suck no matter how the glass full people want to paint it. Bring on spring we will be lucky to 35 inches this winter in the city.

    ReplyDelete
  26. 12z GFS still horrible. Long range long range looks like a warming trend by February. Forget this winter.

    ReplyDelete
  27. This winter is awesome!!!!! Keep it coming baby!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right on!!! So far so great. Haven't touched a dam shovel yet--LOVE IT.

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    2. Exactly my point. The north and south west can have all day long.

      Delete
  28. Al bets that the squall line headed for us fizzles out when it gets to Rochester. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  29. The first ingredient to snowfall is cold air. Cold air was absent in December. Cold air is here now, and with a few exceptions, seems to want to stick around for the balance of January and February. Therefore our chances at snow are exponentially greater than they were in December. It may not look it now, but it will come. Mother nature likes to even things out over time. It may not happen now, but it will eventually.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Big flakes/moderate snow up by the Lake in Greece right now, nice little squall this must be the start of the clipper.

    ReplyDelete
  31. ...and 5 minutes later it's over? Was that it?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Bob Barker bannister BeautifulJanuary 12, 2016 at 2:02 PM

    12z Euro gives us 2-4inches Saturday this weekend that is not bad.

    ReplyDelete
  33. A squall line lived up to its billing for once, sweet. Didn't last long but it produced some of the lowest visibility I've seen in awhile, and the grass is very suddenly not far from disappearing. The weekend looks like a moderate event if it pans out on the wintry side for us. There's another opportunity lurking for late next week as well. Caveats, model spread, blah blah blah you know the drill...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The billing must have been as weak as the squall line then, it got snowy for about 3 minutes but the grass is still plenty green here. At least with the cold temperatures I don't have to worry about it growing anymore.

      Delete
    2. The western Monroe County lakeshore may have drawn the short straw. Didn't catch the radar as the squall was moving through there but it looked almost "pinched" to my north as it was passing through here.

      Delete
  34. Picked up a whole inch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow. What will we do with it all?????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Obviously we'll complain about it because it's not a big storm.

      Delete
  35. Areas South of Buffalo getting hammered again.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Folks who life and work in Wyoming and Wayne Counties are getting buried. So lets me a little bit thankful that we got something, but not like they are getting. And for those who are disappointed in that, and you know who you are, why not think about moving to those areas, and then commute to work each day.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Michele in PenfieldJanuary 12, 2016 at 4:08 PM

    Monroe County (especially NE areas) just was issued a Lake Snow Advisory from 10 tonight until 1 or 2 tomorrow. A little snow is better than nothing. Hope to be able to use my XC skis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope you can too. Makes the winter months more enjoyable if you can go out and play in it. I'm thinking about downhill skiing this year if I can't ride. Haven't done that in forever.

      Delete
  38. Hopefully NW Monroe county also.

    ReplyDelete
  39. KW and JN unusually quiet today not any tweets of importance. Finally gave up on storm this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He has 3 tweets of interest..last one mentions the weekend?

      Delete
  40. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

    Most of us should receive an additional touch of snowfall in the predawn.

    ReplyDelete
  41. This winter is really bad. It is going to be close to the end of January and not one east coast storm even with the great pattern change. The so called storm this weekend has no cold air to work with thus a nice mid-January rain. Now that does not suck? Plus we keep here all the teleconnections are in place to favor storms and nothing. El Nino is the champ of ruining east coast winters. Hail to "El Nino".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just accept that we will never have another snowstorm ever again, bring a resolution to this apparent neurotic obsession of yours and eliminate the urge to complain every 6 seconds.

      Yes, rain in winter sucks. It's also a frequent occurrence and it can happen in any pattern. Shut up and get over it. The weekend isn't forecasted to be all rain btw, but even if it were all snow you'd complain that there won't be enough of it, so it's probably a waste of time to point that out.

      Delete
    2. You must be fun to live with. Sheesh.

      Delete
  42. Looks like front #2 coming across Lake Ontario with an abrupt wind shift behind it. I haven't looked at any current station reports, just took a glance at the radar.

    ReplyDelete
  43. KBUF radar isn't showing it very well but that Georgian Bay streamer is absolutely ripping. Whoever gets caught under the Ontario band is gonna get thumped hard when that streamer connects.

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  44. Picked up a 1/2" in Gananda today. All I can say is , UUUUGGGG. Hopefully more to come tonight.

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  45. People should not give up yet on this storm this weekend. Still a lot of things can change and this storm could blow-up into a big one. Keep the faith.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember what I said yesterday at 8:27 and loo at the 12z GFS that just came out. This weekend storm could get interesting on the coast. Do not give up hope.

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  46. Grass is finally covered in Farmington. Looking forward to getting a little more.

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  47. Snowing hard in Gananda right now.

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  48. What happened to the lake effect overnight. Skies are clear here in Gananda and picked up nothing overnight. Yike.

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  49. Buffalo could see over a ft of snow, Syracuse could see over a ft. Rochester and inch at most. It is all around us. we are in a snowless bubble. LOL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Time for you to sell the place in Gananda and move to a place in Huron or Wolcott. Far more opportunities for the Snowdog to wag his tail up there.

      Delete
  50. Nothing in Penfield, either. Wind ended up in more of a WNW flow post-clipper. Northern Wayne Co. is getting it pretty hard now...closed Sodus, NRW, Red Creek schools. Band appears to be sinking south, so some squalls will hit Central Wayne Co. shortly.

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  51. Not going to change folks this winter is the worst. Models even worse over night for any "Storm" this weekend. Please just jump to spring because winter is over well if want to call it winter.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Agree that the system this weekend will be weak and provide us with a light mix to light snow without much accumulation, but winter is not over until March 21st. I am hopeful that things will change otherwise we can say we lived through history with the lowest snow total for a winter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ^ Imposter Snowdog

      Delete
    2. Real Snowdog - time for a Google Blogger account. Piece of cake to set up. If I can do it, you can do it. Do you have a Gmail email account?

      Delete
  53. For those who are complaining about the lack of snow in this areas; why don't you pack up and move to either Wayne or Wyoming Counties. They are getting hit really hard with snow. That way, you can enjoy the snow, blizzard-like conditions, and commute to your work place in Monroe County. Perhaps then you will be able to live a happy life.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Models looking rather tasty for the following weekend (not this weekend), but the 22nd/23rd. Probably will fizzle out though so ho-hum

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry. Wrong Snowdog. Imposter!!! They know my language imposter. They know you are not the real Snowdog

      Delete
    2. ^ Again imposter Snowdog (8:10). This is getting old!!

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    3. REPEAT: Real Snowdog - time for a Google Blogger account. Piece of cake to set up. If I can do it, you can do it. Do you have a Gmail email account?

      Delete
  55. Just got done salting another quarter inch of snow in hamlin. Another couple weeks of this and even I will be calling for an early spring. There is still time but sooner would be much better than later.

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  56. There will no doubt be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 14 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your previous post said 8 days. What gives.

      Delete
  57. Looks like the system this weekend will transform to off the coast not affecting us and then another one on its heals will pass well to the South not affecting us. Next opportunity not until late next week. The beat goes on. Miss after miss.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought the beat was "rainer after rainer." Misses haven't been a problem. Whatever though, any excuse to complain...

      Delete
  58. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160113/12Z/f384/acckucherasnowne.png

    If only...

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  59. By the way that hr 114 insanity on the GFS is nonexistent on the other models, so we toss.

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  60. This winter just keeps on getting worse and worse.

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  61. It's worse if you prefer being 50+ degrees every day like this past December.

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  62. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-weather-continues-storms-may-bring-snow-midwest-east-us-second-half-of-january/54753047

    inb4 "lol accuwiener blows"

    ReplyDelete
  63. So 12z GFS shows a storm on the coast and the 12z Euro has storm way out to sea? What is going on with the models they seem really out of whack the whole winter. Plus it is not lie this storm is 10 days away? Not sure what is happening.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here's what's happening: none of the modeled storms are cutters. If they were then we'd have lockstep agreement and consistency right out of the starting gate.

      Delete
  64. Maybe Rochester's turn for Lake effect next week???? Not holding my breath though. Winds look to be primarily NW this time.

    MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE
    SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
    500 HPA TROUGH WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
    SURFACE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
    WITHIN A -18 TO -22C 850 HPA AIRMASS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH
    WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY AGAIN FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
    SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE VERY COLD AIR OVER THE UNFROZEN LAKES
    WILL CREATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LAKE INSTABILITY MONDAY WITH LAKE
    INDUCED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500 TO 750 J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM
    LEVELS RISING TO 12 TO 14K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPSTREAM
    CONNECTIONS TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE BAND...WITH CONNECTIONS AS
    FAR WEST AS LAKE SUPERIOR POSSIBLE.

    ReplyDelete
  65. It's the best LES setup we've had so far with the possible upper lakes connection. Just depends upon the precise wind direction...310 degrees would be ideal for the bulk of the ROC metro.

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  66. How's this for bizarro world...we now have our first named system of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ALEX

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  67. The NWS already has likely/categorial POPs across the ROC metro and points east Sunday through Tuesday. Probably doesn't portend much more than simple high confidence in snow of some kind, but it's still somewhat noteworthy.

    ReplyDelete
  68. CCCC can you clarify what you are saying about the NWS issuing what for Rochester? You think the metro and Monroe county may finally get a good amount of LES?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing has been issued, just pointing out that the NWS putting a 60-80 percent chance of snow across the area with this much lead time probably indicates relatively high confidence. I like this setup a fair bit more than previous ones but there's still time for change.

      Delete
  69. Any chance for accumulating snow of any kind now through weekend? I don't follow models, only what I read from you folks on here.

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    Replies
    1. Just minor amounts, tonight with the eastern tip of the Lake Erie snowband as well as tomorrow night with a warm front, then maybe another minor accumulation during the weekend. Pattern still looks active right through next week.

      Delete
    2. I'm assuming at this point there is no chance of any "storm" this weekend as discussed a little bit in past days in terms of any type of impact with snow etc?

      Delete
    3. Yeah that one really died off through the course of the week. Was always a messy setup with temp issues, and even if we remained entirely on the snowy side of things it wouldn't have been a big deal. What's really a shame for the coast is how strong the coastal low is going to get while taking a favorable track for the big cities, but they're still going to receive all rain because the inland low is going to push all of the cold air away. And many of them haven't received more than a trace of snow so far. It's led to some pretty hilarious meltdowns on various forums.

      I'm more interested in the early week lake effect for now, with another window for synoptic mayhem late in the week filed away in the back of my mind. But we'll cross that latter bridge when we come to it...IF we actually come to it for once.

      Delete
    4. I found that blocking Low to the NW of the main storm to be interesting when I saw it on a surface map last night; it's counterclockwise flow pushing back against the draw of cold air that would otherwise be coming in on a NE wind from the main Low. How common is this arrangement?

      Delete
    5. On a side note ... the ROC is not the only place in a snowless hole. My camp, located in NE Oswego County, has only received about 20" of snow so far this year; 6-8" this week. Sounds crazy with that intense band coming off the east end of Ontario, but it did not target that area of the county. Just five miles to the north...not an exaggeration...there is 2-3 feet on the ground. 10-20 miles to the south, another 2 feet. Hannibal, just about 10 miles to the east of Red Creek, got THREE FEET from yesterday's NW-SE oriented band. That's just the nature of lake effect.

      Delete
    6. As far as I can tell the double barrel low arrangement is pretty infrequent.

      Your camp must feel like the red-headed stepchild since this week's events favored that entire area.

      Delete
  70. Models again overnight show nothing in terms of storms. The winter gets worse and worse as we go. But we will get hope from you now who on this blog today. They will say this pattern change has brought winter back what a joke.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Received another trace last night. At this rate we will have moved our snow total for the year up to 10" by mid feb. LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  72. This will be a record setting winter for the least amount of snow ever in the city.

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  73. Todays models continue to show no winter storms for Rochester. This is horrible and hurry up spring.

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  74. I think I figured out who the Blizzard guy is. It's John Kucko! I know this because the guy predicts the weather about as good as Kucko predicts Bills games!

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  75. The NWS put out a winter weather advisory for less than an inch of snow. Are you kidding me. I have to laugh. I know it is for the freezing drizzle, but I still think it is funny.

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  76. >there are people who still haven't figured out that blizzard guy is satire

    oy...

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  77. >there are people who think this winter is getting worse for snow lovers

    OY...

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  78. >there are people who think we're cooked for storms because of what the op models show

    http://www.insidethelifeofmoi.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/gif-4.gif

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ^^^^ This is the best this I've seen in a long time!!!!

      Delete
  79. At least Snowdog is injecting some humor into his usual poignancy. And at least it's honest poignancy.

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  80. You can tell nothing going on with storm potential when CCCC is trying to help us understand Blizzard Guy is satire this winter sucks

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    Replies
    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016011412/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_40.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016011412/gem-ens_mslpa_us_37.png
      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011400/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

      Good spot to have those means at this range. Lock it in? Spread says no way jose.

      Delete
  81. I dare anyone to look at this map and still say with a straight face that anything storm related is a lock over the next ten days:

    http://meteocentre.com/tracking/naefs_geps_amer_00/pres_long.gif

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  82. CCCC is there any new information on what you posted yesterday about Monroe County and possible LES next Monday/Tuesday? You posted the NWS had high POPS for that time is that still true?

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    Replies
    1. Nothing new so far. Probably will be with the afternoon NWS update package. We still have the same likely/categorical POPs as before.

      Delete
  83. From NWS AFD regarding lake effect:

    "A DEEP MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THEN HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT. EXPECT PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO ADD UP TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES."

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    Replies
    1. This far out this is very encouraging that the city may get significant LES. Is it accurate to say that CCCC?

      Delete
    2. Hate is when you simply cut and paste, and don't give your own opinion.

      Delete
  84. Yeah. Lets hope it pans out. The lake has underperformed for us in Rochester area lately.

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  85. HOPEFULLY ITS NOT JUST NORTH OF THE 104 CORRIDOR.

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  86. I doubt this ends up being a lakeshore special given the expected wind direction. If you live near/south of the Thruway you might be in a precarious spot though.

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  87. Precarious meaning good snow or not much? My new house is literally a mile north of the thruway in Farmington . It's nice to just have the chAnce for snow. Can't tell you how old it's getting reading through after work and having to scroll through the broken record anonymous posts about how there is false hope on here and winter is a joke. I'm not trying to judge but seriously get a hobby or something. Or at least come up with some new material other than "models still show nothing". Because the weather is really controlled by computers....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Precarious meaning you're probably on the border between good snow and lesser snow.

      That anon really needs a diary or something, because the comments of a blog are a very poor platform for manifestation of personal neuroses.

      Delete
  88. Again the great hope strikes the CCCC has now made us aware that we could see heavy lake effect snow in Rochester next week but no storms. He loves to throw out that hope so people will read his blog posts he may be a local met. Btw not one local met is talking about significant lake effect snow next week very low key. Any way he spins it this winter is awful, horrible, bad or any other negative word that comes to your mind. Most on this blog agree with me but just want to follow Mr. Hope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, no local meteorologists have talked about the lake effect...if you don't count Stacey or Kevin or Glenn or the NWS. None of them used the word "heavy." Neither did I. Ctrl-F the word "heavy" if you don't believe me on that last bit.

      Literally no one here thinks this winter has been anything other than a giant abortion so far, including me. There's just no good reason to post the same copy-pasted rant about it 57 times a day. Most on this blog agree with me but you just want to be obtuse on purpose ;)

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    2. Alright significant and it is great that you cut and paste posts from other sites to Keep up the hope wink wink (Mike in Herkimer). I thought you researched on your own.

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    3. I never said significant either, nice try though.

      Hey I copy and paste from technical discussions, it's almost as if I'm trying to corroborate my own thoughts with those from actual forecasters.

      What on earth is (Mike in Herkimer) supposed to mean?

      Delete
    4. offended by the use of the word abortion. You should know better.

      Delete
  89. Why is their a WWA tonight into tomorrow?

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  90. CCCC do you think that is good sign that 3-4 days out the NWS has posted two days in a row possible big LES for Rochester with a WNW wind?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a good sign that we'll get lake effect. Qualifiers like "big," "significant," "moderate," "minor," etc are details to be discussed as we get closer. I don't think it's a classic 18+" thumper like we sometimes get with a perfect setup though...I'd like to see a slightly more veered boundary layer flow for that.

      Delete
    2. And by "slightly" I mean on the order of 10 or 15 degrees. Around 310 as opposed to the current 295-300, which is still very serviceable. Even then we would need a near steady state vector, which is another detail that remains up in the air.

      Delete
  91. Now that I look more closely at the snow map that accompanies the original blog post by Matt, which came from the NAM, it was DEAD ON...at least with its extremely localized prediction of lake effect off the east end of the lake. Note that just a few miles separate 24"+ from 6" in northern Oswego Co. That turned out to be exactly the case.

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    Replies
    1. We make fun of the NAM a lot when it comes to synoptic storms, but its 4-km variant is very useful for lake effect. The only thing I don't like about using the WxBell snow map is that it uses a flat 10:1 ratio, whereas lake effect is typically 15:1 or higher.

      Delete
  92. Is the NAM what you will be looing at over the weekend for LES snow on Monday?

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    Replies
    1. I'll be looking at nothing actually, because I'm gonna be out of town for the next three days with little inclination/sobriety to look at models. My only involvement will be reading any relevant alerts that pop up on my phone, should any occur.

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    2. You will be back on Sunday just in time ha ha.

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    3. Out of the frying pan and into the snowglobe :)

      Delete
  93. Buffalo did well yesterday with 7.4" of snow. They are well in the lead for the snow derby.

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    Replies
    1. Syracuse did better, so they're actually the ones with a comfortable lead right now. Buffalo is in 2nd.

      Delete
    2. What is the best source for up to date snow totals? I tried looking this up and didn't have much luck.

      Delete
    3. I believe the total, as of yesterday, was 6.4" at ROC. Not positive of that; going from memory.

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    4. Each NWS office has a climate section on their website. This is the one for NWS Buffalo:

      http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=buf

      We're up to 8.3" on the season.

      Delete
    5. About another 33 for this season and that will wrap up this horrible winter.

      Delete
  94. Recent driving adventures demonstrated to me why the WWA was necessary. Very slick roadways despite the small amount of snow. Flakes aren't very big but the dendrites themselves are huge and easily discernible. Pretty neat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why are you complaining about driving; aren't you the one who has complained about the lack of winter weather.

      Delete
  95. Last few tweets from Cohen sounded ominous.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What were they?

      Delete
    2. if the polar cap height from the 0Z GFS verifies it would be "lights out" for winter 2016. I am not going to pretend to know what that means.

      Delete
    3. I think the lights have already gone out on Winter 2016, and its doesn't appear they're coming back on. Pretty pleeeeeease let it snow!

      Delete
    4. I think he is talking about a SSW and the vortex spitting. Although I don't think that would be automatically lights out so I may be wrong.

      Delete
  96. The NWS took out the hazardous weather outlook for lake effect for Rochester next week. Must not going to be that bad for us now. Uuuuug!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ^ Imposter Snowdog, not me, That is not how I talk

      Delete
  97. Wouldn't it be neat if we got cold and rainy March til June?

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  98. In all seriousness the models look horrible for storms in the future. Next weekend was another time to look at and that is now gone. Really bad and we may break the record for the least amount of snow.

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  99. The following quotes can be found in the archive section of this blog, and are provided for the reading pleasure of all our Winter-is-a-Bust Anonymous naysayers. It's rather amusing to compare them to this year's batch...especially in light of what life looked like in Rochester 2 weeks later:

    Cold without snow sucks. I would rather have it be warm. No storms in the foreseeable future. A few weak clippers. Tomorrow will melt some of the little snow we have on the ground. Boring winter. Jan. 17th 2015

    Models are backing off on the cold and every thing. This winter is really going to be a big disappointment. Jan 19th 2015

    Wow. We cannot even get a clipper to hit us. This winter sucks. Waste of cold air. Next week looks dry again. The beat goes on an on. The snow DROUGHT continues. Jan 23rd 2015

    People need to stop saying it will get snowier. Eventually you might be right. Week after week after week we here it is going to get more active and it never happens. The METS need to stop saying it will get more active. This winter is a BIG BIG bust. Jan 23rd 2015

    There will be NO storm. This winter is a bust. KW just said no snow next week, just cold. BORING!!!!! Jan 23rd 2015

    This is how we are getting in Rochester this winter. We get excited over 2" of snow and cold air. Jan 24th 2015

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  100. At least last year we had over 30" at that time. This year we do not even have 10". Hopefully things will change. Lake effect for Rochester looks good from Monday through Wednesday, but we all know how that goes.

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  101. Actually Snowdog LES looks good for traditional spots east of the lake. North of the thruway including the city get little again same old story.

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  102. Not true Anon 5:06. The winds will be NW this time and not WNW. Rochester will get it on it if the winds line up out of the NW which the NWS out of Buffalo is stating will happen on MOnday

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  103. JN did not seem to excited about lake effect snow next week. He was kind of down playing the whole deal.

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  104. Of course no local mets are going to act all excited about it. They know LES around here can be touch an go and there is no reason to expect that we will get pounded. If you anyone is already got their mind made up that it's a bust or that we are getting a lot you are probably going to be disappointed and we will read your post Monday or Tuesday asking where is the lake effect. If you keep an open mind which myself and some others choose to do you might get surprised, you might not. It's fun to talk an think about the potential. Spin it how you want but the weather will do what it's going to do and you can choose to have a good day or not. I want a storm like everyone else so we can play in the snow but I'm not going to complain.

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  105. Interesting. The NWS has HEAVT snow in the forecast for us Sunday night, Monday and Monday night yet there are no watches posted for this supposedly heavy lake effect we are supposed to get. I think sometimes they are smoking dope. LOL

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  106. If this does pan out they are probably just waiting for the next shift to verify the parameters and to issue any watches etc. Very interesting to see if we can squeeze some snow out of it finally. Just remember to disregard those posts on here that are aimed and trying to make people unhappy and to stir up trouble.

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  107. They do have watches up for Wayne county east but not Monroe county west. Oh well maybe that will change

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  108. Does not make sense. I believe they will eventually extend the watches from Monroe county to at least Orleans county.

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  109. You are probably correct. Probably the fact that it's a little but more of a sure thing for some snow north east they might not have the confidence yet for Monroe west. I'm only about 4-5 miles south of macedon into Farmington and not far from Monroe county line either so even though I'm in Ontario county we r so far north that sometimes even without a watch in my county we still get some snow .

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  110. I live in Henrietta do you think we have a chance of significant lake effect snow or is it just the 104 corridor and the usual places like Wayne County areas and Oswego?

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  111. Looks like you would have minimal snow out of this. Heck many counties are under a lake effect snow watch but Monroe County so I would say very little confidence that areas north of the thruway including the metro get much.

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  112. On a NW wind Rochester will get significant lake effect snow. Especially Rochester East. I still think they will extend the watches to include Monroe County and Orleans county. Some areas will get buried. I don't think Rochester will, because we don't get BIG lake effect storms, but I do think 6+ of fluff is possible from Monday to Wednesday. Not a big deal but at least it is something.

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  113. I am also going to take a stab in the dark at this LES event. I don't believe Monroe or Orleans counties will be issued any LES watches. The watch areas will be changed to warnings this afternoon and evening. Monroe county will have LES advisory headlines posted some time before Sunday afternoon.

    Wayne county will most likely have a huge range of snowfall from 2 inches on the southwest corner to 2 feet in the northeast corner.

    Monroe county will most likely range from 2 inches in the south east corner to 6 inches on the north east corner.

    Everyone looks to be include in 1-2 inches with a clipper and front.

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  114. Having lived in Hamlin my whole life of 36 years, I have learned to NEVER TRUST ANY LES forecast for Monroe or Orleans counties. They are often BUSTS both high and low. I am not blaming the meteorologists it is just the nature of our location with respect to the Lakes and wind direction.

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  115. Again this is not rocket science traditional areas get over a foot easily while other areas get an inch or two at best. Not sure why everyone is trying to figure out what will happen.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Because that's what we do on this blog?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe I had it first ;)

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  117. I agree with HP that it could go high or low you never know. Nobody is guaranteeing anything. A watch is just that, a watch. Means potential is there. Like I said before no reason to act like we have any control over it. If be happy with a coating to cover grass and freshen things up and would be excited and surprised to see any more.

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  118. Monroe county has nothing issued?

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    Replies
    1. Monroe County now under a watch until Tuesday. Oswego a warning with 1 to 2 feet of snow by Tuesday.

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  119. You think we will get a new post from News 8?

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  120. So all of you spaz's can calm down for a few hours because there is an LES watch.

    ReplyDelete

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