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Saturday, January 16

Lake effect machine gets cranking again!

Remember what happened this past Tuesday with that brief period of whiteout conditions? We could see a repeat performance tomorrow afternoon as a strong Arctic front quickly sweeps east through the region. A period of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds will accompany the front with a quick 1-2" of snow during that time.

Here's a look at snowfall accumulations through tomorrow evening (more snow will fall after this):



As colder air pours southeast tomorrow night and Monday, the lake effect machine will get cranking again. Once it starts, it looks like it will keep going right through the middle of the week with some folks measuring the white stuff in feet once again. Like the last lake effect event we saw, locations closer to the Lakeshore and into Wayne county will pick up the heaviest accumulations with these amounts quickly tapering off as you head south.

The one difference this time around is that the wind will have a slightly more northwest component and this could push the more significant snow bands further south into the city of Rochester. Still too soon to say if this will actually happen but there is a chance. There's much higher confidence that locations along and north of route 104 in Monroe county will see several inches piling up.

Lake Effect Snow Watches have already been posted for Monroe and Wayne counties for early next week:



Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones


174 comments:

  1. LES is useless for most.

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  2. Not complaining just stating facts. A week from today we will be lucky to have 10 inches in Rochester for the season that is way down from the normal average. That would be almost at February only 10 inches. That is a joke and earns a this winter sucks.

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  3. Looks like there is a potential East Coast storm Next weekend, but as it looks now it will hit the big cities and miss us South and East. I am sure things will change a thousand times before then though.

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  4. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  5. Not counting on a blizzard. Would love to see a 315 trajectory for some LES in Irondequoit Monday through Tues! Another tough fcst. They would be easy if we lived in Syracuse or Fulton. But this type of event could show nothing for Monroe. Or 18" im Hamlin through Webster with 3" in Mendon.

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  6. I will post a Picture of myself dancing naked in the snow on Facebook if Monroe county gets 18inches. Low confidence in that one.

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    1. Just your britches if we get 12"

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    2. YNN is forecasting snow totals fairly aggressively right now, that might be a good sign since they tend to lean conservative on their forecasts. What is WROCs prediction?

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  7. Not looking good for Rochester- Per Matt:

    Update: Lake Effect Snow Watch remains in effect for Monroe county and Lake effect Snow Warning has now been issued for Wayne county for Monday-Tuesday. High confidence that portions of Wayne county will see well over a foot of snow. As for the city of Rochester, it's looking like we might miss out on much of the snow once again. Greatest amounts look to fall along the immediate Lakeshore and extreme northeast Monroe county. Still time for things to change so stay tuned!

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  8. Maybe CCCC will chime in here after a couple cups of coffee and some aspirin. I just saw the YNN forecast as well and they put just about everybody in the 6-12 range.

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    1. Ha ha Anon 11:00 you listen to YNN they are the worst so count on that 6-12 because most getting an inch or 2.

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    2. CCCC posted that he would be out of town this week, and not posting to the blog.

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  9. I think YNN is on drugs. I do not trust their forecast. They are very inaccurate.

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  10. I could be wrong but my take has been they are accurate with snow totals but always seem to wait until the last minute to get in the game. Tend to agree with you on this one, they actually had the lakeshore totals lower than the city, as is the case with LES we'll just have to pull out the ruler when it's over to find out who was right.

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  11. Snowdog is right they must be dipping into the good stuff today. Their new map shows most of the monroe county area in the 12-18 inch total, somebody must like the color purple in the weather room because they really went crazy with that map.

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    Replies
    1. I understand their forecast seeming over done but what do they gain by overdoing snow totals only to look bad a few days later? Just playing devils advocate.

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  12. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 8 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  13. Why so quiet on this blog with heavy LES coming and a big east coast storm looming in a week? I know why because Rochester will be on the outside looking in at both. A horrible winter continues and after next weekend a warm-up is coming. Bring on spring.

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  14. Save us CCCC we've been reduced to analyzing YNN weather maps in your absence and the NBD'ers are closing in...

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  15. Lake Effect Warning for Monroe. 3-6 tomorrow + 3-6 tom night + a couple Tuesday.

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  16. That is for areas along the lake and east of there not the city and areas north of thruway.

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  17. From the NWS:

    LOCATIONS...MONROE COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE
    LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER

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  18. Thank-you Snowdog.

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  19. All models have a major east coast storm for next Friday.

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  20. This artic front does not look very impressive. The models do show a storm but too far South and East to affect us.

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  21. If models continue the same track and they all are pretty similar Pennsylvania could see a Major snowstorm. We would primarily miss out. I know that shocks everyone. Hopefully the models will bring the storm further West.

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  22. They usually trend NW do they not? We need CCCC back with his analysis.

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  23. It's too far out to make any judgements on whether or not something will miss us or not this at out don't you agree? Isn't it nice just to have the possibility of a synoptic system? We haven't had one to discuss all winter really.

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    Replies
    1. At least it's not a cutter this time. Baby steps :P

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  24. Storms usually do trend NW but I have my doubts with this one. The fact that it's being held south by a Canadian high argues against a major NW trend IMO. Just a few thoughts after quickly catching up with recent happenings:

    -Some of the meso models want to push a band across Orleans and southern Monroe counties tomorrow and Tuesday. That seems a bit odd for a WNW flow event, but it's been a somewhat consistent trend. Maybe it happens with enough of an upper lakes connection. I'm going to hedge towards the bulk of the snow being north of downtown while hoping to be outgunned by computers.
    -If we get somehow get completely whiffed by what amounts to a ten day lake effect outbreak, then get whiffed by a big storm after two months of cutters, then I might just have to jump on the "least snow ever" bandwagon. Because that would be some impressively bad luck and I'd be semi-entertained if it continued straight through the rest of winter.

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    1. Why not just jump on the "snowiest ever March" bandwagon instead?
      KW has an image of one of those meso models posted on his Facebook page I was just digging the funky purples gliding over my house on that map a few minutes ago.

      Welcome back let's hope you're good luck for an old fashioned LES storm.

      SW

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    2. I believe this will trend NW as we get closer. Remember 6 days away and that Canadian high may not be where it is positioned and retreat more north itself.

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    3. Maybe. We'll see how the ensembles trend over the next few days. Really if we take the model consensus verbatim then we "only" need about a 100 mile shift to be solidly in the game, definitely doable at a 6 day lead time. Something similar happened with the V-day storm, in that the models initially converged on an I-95 snowstorm before shifting drastically NW inside 72 hours. That sort of scenario is always a long shot though.

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    4. You must be right because not one local met has mentioned a possible storm.

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  25. Scott posted on twitter few inches for city.

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    1. 2-4 south of downtown, 4-8 north and 8-14 near the lake.

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  26. We have some snow to plow in Hamlin tonight and it finally looks like winter outside. We got a quick 3 inches, which is probably more than we have gotten all season so far in Hamlin. It is just nice to get some snow again, even if it is only a few inches.

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  27. Got about 3 1/2 to 4 inches on 104 in Clarkson this afternoon. Just enough for me to hope the plow guy comes in the morning. Rear wheel drive cargo vans suck on an uphill driveway to the road.

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    Replies
    1. Put some snows on that sucker! Also, some well-placed 70 lb bags of play sand...

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  28. Curious to see what the airport reports tonight for snowfall. My parents live less than a mile from the airport and they had at least 2" on the ground, and that's a very conservative measurement. The only way we obtain the least snowiest season on record is if KROC continues their "genius" measurements from last year...

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  29. Weatherguy no comment on LES potential and east coast storm next week?

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    1. I like Scott's map, but sometimes we get lucky if we get a G-Bay connection, especially in the early morning hours when potential energy is highest and thus heavier snowfall rates. As for the storm, wayyyyy too early...

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  30. Oz GFS goes a little NW we are not that far away from snow. Central Pa. get hammered with snow. This is going to be a large east coast storm as of right now. It is worth tracking during the week at least.

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  31. Looked at the models this AM and all point to a miss this weekend. The Euro is way South. In my opinion this will be a BIG storm for the mid-atlantic and the big cities. They will probably get more snow in this one storm than we have seen all year. Right now the trend is not our friend.

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  32. I am also worried about this Lake effect. The radar shows not much of anything right now.

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  33. I think they now say it is supposed to come in the late afternoon....

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  35. There looks to be a band on radar that is impacting northeast Wayne county at the moment. Also looks as if there is a connection with Georgian bay as WG mentioned. The question is will the band shift even further south or stay put or go north.

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  36. No new lake effect this morning in Penfield. In fact, it is sunny (very nice)! We received about 2" from the passage of the Arctic front. This burst of snow was more efficient with elevation...areas south of ROC got 5".

    Radar showing lake effect hitting Wayne Co hard, Sodus Bay, east and south.

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  37. The lake effect band just east of Sodus Bay is well-organized and intense. It is staying intact and dropping snow on a NW-->SE flow all the way through Cayuga County and south of SYR. Obviously a juicy Georgian Bay connection...

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  38. Once again we miss out on any big lake effect snow and a major storm next weekend is way SE of us. The I-95 areas will get big snows and we will be watching. This winter just keeps getting worse and worse. We are going to break the record for the least amount of snow ever in Rochester can you believe it?

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  39. The Lake Huron connection is starting to show up on radar intensifying the band further west. The Huron connection is the one that Monroe county is going to depend on this time around.

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  40. We will all have to wait until tomorrow morning before we can say who will be missing out on the LES. This evening and tonight once the Huron connection is at full strength someone will be getting pounded. I DOUBT it will be only Wayne count this time around.

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  41. Its coming down good in Brockport right now!!!
    Ray

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  42. It's been off and on in Holley all morning. Sometimes a white-out, then flurries. Keep it coming baby!!!!

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  43. Lake Superior and Lake Huron are currently making the connection on my front door. It is snowing hard in North Hamlin right now. It looks like it will shift south if the short term. Hopefully to return this evening full blast.

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  44. Whoa, NW Monroe County, from Irondequoit Bay westward along the 104 corridor getting blasted...so is NE Wayne. Very intense band about to make landfall near Red Creek.

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  45. Not a cloud in the sky in Victor. Beautiful sunshine.

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  46. They should have put a warning for Orleans county. They are getting pounded in a narrow band right now.

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  47. Cars off the road everywhere on I-90. Please be careful and use extreme caution if traveling today!

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  48. Absolute whiteout in Irondequoit. Snowing so hard there is absolutely zero visibility. Have picked up about 6" so far!

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  49. Winter Storm Warning now up for Monroe County. Woo Hoo!!!!

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    Replies
    1. You mean the LES Warning that's been up since yesterday?

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  50. Sounds like fun times on the north side. I'm near the Thruway and the sun is out, have received nada so far.

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  51. Absolute white out in Holley. Can't even see across the street. Keep it coming LOL.

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    Replies
    1. you must be someone who is making money off of the winter snow.

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  52. First band of snow is rapidly falling a part. The second is strong and has been pounding Syracuse all day. How far South will that move?

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  53. A little trend NW with the models today for that big east coast storm next weekend. The trend is our friend. Do not count us out yet. Still 5 days away.

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  54. Spotters report seeing SnowDog along the south shore of Lake Ontario, placing industrial-sized fans on the beach, directed towards Walworth.

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    Replies
    1. Now that's funny. Nothing in Gananda so far. Uuuggg!

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  55. The LES has been awful and as usual under performing for the majority of areas. The major east coast storm is just that for the coast. We get nada as usual. Lucky to get 35 inches for whole season and this winter sucks.

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    1. I've already thrown in the towel, what a disappointment. Might as well slap my butt and call me spanky. Uuuggg again!

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  56. Even CCCC with his 7:59 post last night is starting to lose hope especially after this LES bust and BIG storm staying east of us. Time to pack it in folks put your snow blowers away.

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    1. I'm just about to get mine out. It snowed pretty hard here for about an hour.

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  57. We were only supposed to get 1 or 2 inches during the day. Most of the snow will be tonight into early tomorrow as the winds veer to WNW. In fact, there are already signs of that happening on the radar. Consensus of forecasts appears on track for now.

    I think the most we can hope for with the coastal storm is a fringe impact, so if you don't get in on the lake effect then you're probably SOL for significant snow this week. The "good" news is that it looks like we're still in the game for snow opportunities right through the end of the month...lots of low centers in the ensembles with seasonable temps (low 30s for highs, upper teens for lows). It would be some impressively bad luck if we got through all of that plus three lake effect outbreaks with minimal snow.

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    1. CCCC stop giving false hope. Just give it up already. We will all have minimal snow by the end of the month. Temps are warming right back up to low 40's and any precip chances we get will be all rain! Just give it a rest please. Winter is cancelled!

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  58. SORRY FOLKS!!! But once again I need to remind you that next weekends storm will be NBD for all of us! Yup...you heard that right...NBD!!! Nada, Zip, Zilch, Zero impact for us. NO SNOW FOR YOU! Bahahahahaha. Sorry Folks!

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  59. I'll post the only part of the NWS AFD that matters right now:

    "MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE SNOW SHIELD WILL SPREAD AS THE LOW PASSES OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND HEADS OUT TO SEA."

    The text states that the GFS has the most snow, but it's actually the GGEM. It brings several inches while the GFS would produce a coating at most. The Euro is a total whiff. I have strong doubts about the GGEM output, especially with the cold (and dry) Canadian high pressing down so hard.

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    1. Have a feeling this is going to be an Out-To-Sea'ster, rather than a Nor'easter.
      CCCC- Do you think the Southern Tier/Northern PA will see more of the snow shield than ROC metro area? Could Finger lakes get any action?

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    2. The southern tier definitely has a better shot than the ROC metro, although they might get whiffed too. Finger Lakes are less likely than southern tier but more likely than ROC metro.

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  60. You guys may be right because it is weird how KW and JN have not said a peep about a potential large east coast storm. That is unusual.

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    1. Kevin will probably mention the possibility of fringe impacts at some point, given his not-so-subtle snowy bias.

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    2. Probably will mention depending on where their ratings are compared to the other stations. If there rating are below, will begin to talk it up just to get folks watching.

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  61. Again the trend can be your friend and the 18z GFS certainly looks interesting. This is certainly a major storm that is taking shape this weekend. Parts of southeast Pa. projected for over 35 inches and all models seem to be consistent right now. The track of storm is still uncertain but been trending NW. We shall see what happens but not counting us out yet.

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    1. Will Winter Storm Warnings be issued??

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  62. Snowing hard again here in eastern Penfield. Just ran the snowblower for first time this season. I would say 3-4" on the ground with more on the way.

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  63. Snowing hard in Greece right now. Finally had my driveway plowed!

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  64. Light snow in Gananda. About 2" so far. Not impressed yet. The storm this weekend looks very interesting to say the least. Someone will get buried and I think it will be DC, PH, NYC and Boston. It looks to be a classic Nor ester. We are on the fringe which I think we will remain. I hate watching these storms from the outside. I think some places will see more snow in this one storm that we have seen all season. The NWS out of PH is already talking about a high impact event.

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  65. You are right Snowdog brides maid again. Not one peep out of our local mets that tells you a lot.

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  66. Getting beautiful LES in the metro and all we can do is talk about the next storm? You guys are silly. Good to be back :)

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    1. I live in the lake effect screw zone of the ROC metro, also known as Henrietta. And that distinction is playing out pretty profoundly right now. Cut me some slack here :P

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    2. What do you think Fairport will get from the lake effect snow tonight?

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  67. I like NE WV up through western MD and SE PA for the highest totals. I-95 and points SE may contend with some changeover issues, particularly south of NYC. The general track is basically locked in at this point, what remains up for debate is how far NW the precip shield goes. If the system cuts off earlier and crawls up the coast (GFS/GGEM) then we'll see the snow expand farther NW as the coastal low matures. If it slides quickly out to sea (Euro/UKMET) then the snow will remain well south.

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    1. SMELLS LIKE FRANK-FOOTERS IN HERE

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  68. This winter is done can we get to spring please.

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    Replies
    1. ...he says as snow continues to stack across the metro with temps in the teens

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  69. Snowdog- Do you still have that Dutch oven you raved about last winter?

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  70. This was tweeted on channel 10 website:

    18Z GEFS. Plenty of members see the NW shift potential late week

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  71. Not going to happen Snowdog this is locked in for SE areas on the coast.

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  72. Right, because models are always locked in 4-5 days ahead of time....you either don't like winter or you like to be a Debbie downer. Ever try glass half full? It's not so bad.

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    Replies
    1. No, anything other than uncompromising negativity is just blind hope ;)

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  73. Please read The Great CCCC's 7:37 post and you will know that it is locked in and we get 2 inches at best so lets move on. Now just got a LES warning notice for Monroe county on my phone until 7:00 pm tomorrow. Not sure what 100 people in Monroe county will get impacted by this because LES sucks for most.

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    Replies
    1. The northern half of the metro has been getting drilled all evening...

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    2. It is more than 100 people who are being impacted -- did you step out and drive at all last night. It was pretty bad between low visibility, black ice, and slippery conditions. Show some common sense Anon 8:38 and grown up.

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    3. Anon 8:38 -- so how much did it suck for you Monday evening and night with all of the snow, wind, and poor road conditions. I bet those who had no choice, but to be out in the weather conditions last night, were not complaining. If you feel that it sucks so badly around here, suggestion -- google Realtor and begin to look to relocate to another section of the Country which gets slammed by winter storms all the time. Here is a thought find a cabin and move to the Tug Hill area. This way you will have snow and lots of it; and we don't have to read you complaining about how much LES and winter sucks.

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  74. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 6 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Are you confusing Rochester with Philly? Might want to look at the map and study some.

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  75. Sorry to hear a lot of people were disappointed by the LE but many did and that counts for something. Here in Clarendon we lucked out and locked into that second plume for a good part of the afternoon and again this evening, I'm guessing we have 6 inches on the ground. As far as I'm concerned winter started yesterday and anything can happen in the second "half" (more like 2/3rds).

    SW

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  76. LES bands pretty much done now. Not sure why there is a warning in Monroe county still until 7:00 pm tomorrow? For the most part as usual it was a bust for all areas. Storm coming no where near us this weekend. What a horrible winter get the record books out for least amount of snow ever in Rochester. Blizzard guy you are dreaming and not very bright.

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    1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumination_%28psychology%29

      "Rumination is the compulsively focused attention on the symptoms of one's distress, and on its possible causes and consequences, as opposed to its solutions.[1] Both rumination and worry are associated with anxiety and other negative emotional states, however its measures have not been unified.[2] In the Response Styles Theory proposed by Nolen-Hoeksema (1998),[3] rumination is defined as the “compulsively focused attention on the symptoms of one's distress, and on its possible causes and consequences, as opposed to its solutions”"

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  77. Report of 8-10 inches in north Greece per Stacey's twitter feed. Most reports from the northern/northeastern suburbs are in the 4-6 inch range with probably another 2-4 on the way, so those areas should reach warning criteria. Southern suburbs are generally 1-2 inches. I have around an inch total, which will probably do it for the event IMBY.

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  78. Only about 3" in Gananda. Hoping for more. Oh well. It will be hard to be spectators rhis weekend when we see others get buried.

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  79. The models, especially the Euro have taken that storm even further South and East. Will not be a player here at all. Uuuuugggg!!!!

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    1. Still 3-4 days out, SnowDog...likely not to affect the area, but keep an eye on it. Oh, and turn your fans at the beach to the North, so that they push that Canadian High back up a little bit to make room for the storm.

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    2. LOL. Damn Canadian high. If we don't have the high the storms pass to our West. When we do have the high and cold air it suppresses the storms to our South. Can't win!!!!

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  80. Seriously turning your wipers on is not brushing the snow off your car.

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  81. Here comes the media. Already forecasting a blockbuster catastrophic snow storm for DC and the mid-Atlantic. Give me a break.

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  82. Strom well SE of us and the beat goes on and on. Pac in this winter and I hope CCCC is finally on board. A record for least amount of snow is coming.

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    Replies
    1. OMG. GIVE IT A REST WILL YA.

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    2. Seriously since when do Bills' Fan care about Eagle or Redskins fans, and the impact a storm has on them. Did anyone of them care when Buffalo got over 7 feet of snow last year -- probably not. So move on.

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  83. Webster got a good amount of snow with all of these bands coming through.....looks like winter to me...

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  84. Kind of hoping we could start getting NW shifts on that storm this weekend but not happening. GFS and Euro been very consistent keeping this storm SE of us and giving the big cities and much of central and southeast Pa. the big storm. Just disappointing for snow lovers. This is a big storm and you do not get many opportunities for those and we miss out. Have a feeling any storms are going to be for mid atlantic states this winter not us.

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    Replies
    1. Did you quickly forget about the last couple of days -- some in Northern Monroe County got over a foot of snow or more in Wayne. So before you make the statement that snow lovers are disappointed; you might want to double check the snow total from the LES we just had.

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    2. Webster got a lot! Our plow guy had to come several times over the weekend.....

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    3. I am NOT a snow lover so I am happy about the storm this weekend possibly missing us. Love this winter so far....but I know it is way too early and we can easily get a ton of snow from now-April.

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  85. When is the storm supposed to come? Saturday or Sunday? You never know.....only Tuesday

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  86. Unfortunately for snow lovers this storm will miss us. The trend is further south and east. The Canadian high is suppressing the storm south and East.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe if we're lucky the trend will continue and the whole storm will get stamped into oblivion. Then we wouldn't have to face the knowledge of DC having twice as much snow as us halfway through the winter.

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  87. Here's how incomprehensibly next-to-impossible it would be for this winter to reach a new all-time low for snowfall: if we want to at least tie the record of 29.2" then we need to receive 14.6" or less for the remainder of the season. That means getting through the remainder of this month (in which we average 11.8" of snow), all of February (which averages 21.5"), all of March (16.3") and a decent chunk of April (3.9") with essentially zero significant storms, relatively little lake effect and only one or two minor/moderate synoptic events. Do the math...we would actually need to SLACKEN the average pace we've been on since the start of December in order to achieve this feat, which given the fact that December was a once in 500 year uber-torch would be utterly beyond words to describe. Bear in mind that this is a time frame which houses our typical peak climo period for storms, during which we will experience a continuation of an active synoptic pattern with seasonable temps and likely a sudden stratospheric warming event (which would favor blocking and cold down the road). Any sort of significant storm during that 10-12 week period of favorable storm climo would essentially destroy our shot at the record unless Lake Ontario suddenly vanished into thin air. Simply put: if I were a betting man and the O/U for this winter's total snowfall was set at 29.2", I would pound the over until my pounding arm was reduced to a feeble little nub. That's how hideously improbable it is that we break the record.

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  88. Agreed. That warm winter we had a few years ago we had something like 59 inches of snow. The rest of this winter will not be warm like that. There is no way we are finishing under 30 inches of snow on the year.

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    1. Plus if blizzard guy had anything to say about; the flower city will be having a Blizzard every week.

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  89. Latest Euro even farther southeast. This threat is officially done for WNY. Move on this winter stinks and is over.

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    1. Ugh...I'm not usually big on censorship but can we limit the "this winter stinks" comments to one per day per person at least?

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    2. "Wednesday evening flow becomes more westerly ahead of the weak wave
      and inversion heights will briefly rise to around 7k feet. This
      should allow lake effect snow to become better organized across the
      Tug Hill region Wednesday evening. Overnight boundary layer flow
      becomes northwest again behind the weak surface wave...forcing lake
      effect snow back into areas southeast of the lake from Oswego to
      Wayne counties and possibly portions of Monroe County. Equilibrium
      levels briefly remain around 7k feet as flow becomes northwest...
      but then quickly lower Thursday morning."

      CCCC or anyone else...can you explain in lay terms what the NWS is referring to when they discuss this inversion or equilibrium number of 7k? I was seeing a lot of numbers thrown out yesterday on the Scientific Forecaster Discussion, 10k, 15k, etc. and I'm trying to better understand how this relates to Lake Effect projections. Thanks!

      SW

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    3. Anon 1:52 where were you this last couple of days in which sections of Monroe County received over a foot of snow. Nevertheless talk about driving last night and his morning. If you think Winter stinks you must be living in some imaginary world with rose color glasses. Better yet, what are you smoking?

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    4. Anon 1:52 -- if you hate it so much around here, why don't you move to Wayne County or up near the Tug Hill. They have gotten an incredible amount of snow. Stop complaining, move to somewhere else. Unless you are a private snow plow operator, you truly have NO reason to complain.

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    5. SW: The equilibrium level is the altitude at which a rising parcel of air will become equal to the temperature of the air around it. At that point it attains an equal buoyancy to its environment and stops rising, which caps the intensity of resulting convective precip. Higher usually = heavier.

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    6. Thanks CCCC... What's really amazing is that was pretty close to what I was guessing it was. Any idea where that figure maxes out during extreme LES events?

      SW

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  90. Our only hope:

    From the NWS:

    IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WHICH WILL DEVELOP THIS
    SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...SO IT IS
    POSSIBLE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE MAY ALTER THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
    FORECAST SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE US UPPER AIR
    NETWORK AND IS BETTER SAMPLED. THIS IS THE CASE EVEN THOUGH MODELS
    ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SD are you a private snow plow operator and therefore want all of this snow so you can make more money.

      Delete
  91. All over the news about possible Northeaster this weekend with possible 2+ feet of (heavy) snow and wind in excess of 60 mph expected. If it is heading out way (not saying that it will or is) but if it is when will Blizzard warning go up? Going to simply skip Winter Storm watch/warning and go straight to Blizzard. Also beyond anyone just all over this, I'm simply asking a question of those who are the experts on this blog - so don't cyber bully me just yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "If it is heading out way (not saying that it will or is)"

      It isn't.

      "when will Blizzard warning go up?"

      It won't.

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  92. IT is over as CCCC has said. There is no way this is going north enough to get to us. Just sit back and watch the mid atlantic areas enjoy.

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  93. All of the evidence certainly points that way but it is also true that full sampling hasn't even taken place yet since the energy for this system isn't in range yet. So while I know it is probably smart to fold em, part of me says how can anyone be so sure if we are going by what a computer is predicting with incomplete data?

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  94. OMG Farmington Snowlover! There has been some sampling and every model run has been well south of us even the ensemble members. There is a zero percent chance of us getting this big storm please stop with the hope thing. All mets have said same thing and the great CCCC too. Move on!

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  95. I wonder if the media will make a big deal of this storm. :-/

    ReplyDelete
  96. What a let down with this latest miss. The mid atlantic states will enjoy it while we sit back and watch. Oh well, time to pack it in, fart and pull the covers over my head!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude that's just gross..

      Delete
    2. You act like you've never cracked a rat under the covers, ala dutch oven style

      Delete
    3. Imposter snowdog: you need help kiddo. You seem to have an unhealthy obsession with gas, specifically one's own.

      Delete
    4. Above posts are not me! While i love the smell of my own farts, especially silent ones, I do not trap them under the covers! That's disgusting!

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  97. I have an idea, maybe those that care and post daily on here sign up for a free account so no one can troll you like anonymous above? So pointless and childish.

    I will accept defeat, but zero percent chance seems a little crazy. Not an outside chance we could even get a few inches of synoptic snow? I realize we will not get the big storm. I'm stubborn can you tell?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Farmington I remember last year when you cried and took a leave of absence for like 2 weeks because someone hijacked your name lmao.
      And no, there is no chance we even see a few inches from this storm...GET OVER IT

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    2. Hey remember that time you posted as anonymous and said this winter sucks and it's over? Oh yeah it was like every couple hours for the past month or more...

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    3. I'd rather just do away with anonymous posting in general. Not all anon posts are low quality but nearly all of the low quality posts come from anons. It's a common theme almost everywhere on the internet, and the phenomenon has actually been studied somewhat extensively in the recent past. I'm reasonably certain that Google blogger allows admins to remove the option for posting anonymously, such that a user account is required in order to post. Some actual moderation would be lovely too, but this place has been like the wild west for at least a few years. I doubt any of the News 8 mets come here more than once every few weeks, and quite frankly I don't blame them. It's a fair bit beneath them to be spending any length of time dealing with anonymous trolls. Oh well...

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    4. Well said. This used to be full of nothing but good posts. There was this one guy named Andrew that stirred things up but it wasn't so bad. Usually why I stayed away from here for a while, oh yeah and I work, maintain a home, be a father, stuff like that. Most of us have some type of responsibility and respect for peoples time and thoughts.

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    5. I remember Andrew from way back when I used to lurk. He was sort of like me except with an ego the size of a blue supergiant. I really think most of the troll posts are coming from one or two people with some kind of compulsive need to be annoying, probably just endlessly distraught teens engaging in a weird sort of catharsis. The volume of posts makes it seem like there's a swarm of them, but I can tell by their posting style that it's only one or two individuals. Those sorts aren't going to respect anyone until they get a swift series of kicks in the rear from reality. Otherwise they aren't really anything worse than a minor annoyance from time to time.

      Delete
  98. So this next storm is a miss for us (I will take the word of those much more weather savvy than I), but here's what's really amazing...

    I can remember a time growing up, when cable was still new and you watched MTV for the music, if you tuned into the weather channel the long range forecast was 3 days ahead. 3 days ahead! Storms like this wouldn't even be on the horizon yet. Now, this storm isn't even visible on a weather map and here we are 5 days away able to say with near certainty it's a miss for us. That's freaking amazing. It makes you wonder what the limits of weather forecasting will be...14 day forecasts? Monthly forecasts? I gotta believe at some point the variables become too unpredictable for effective forecasting but wouldn't it be great if we knew a full year ahead what all the hits and misses would be, we could get all the complaining for the current season out of the way during the summer months...then again, the NBDers would probably just spend the winter bitching about the following year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Instead of "this winter sucks" we would be stuck with hearing " this year sucks, that's it folks, this year will be NBD, might as well move on to 2017 because 2016 is over. Won't be one drop of anything.
      I get what you are saying. At some point there is a limit though to what technology can do I think. Sometimes it's nice to just let mother nature do her thing.

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    2. I'm personally stuck debating between the comfort of knowing almost exactly what will happen weatherwise for a full year, vs preserving the thrill of the uncertain hunt for big storms. From a societal perspective there's absolutely no debate, and we could one day get close to that point as computing tech rapidly advances. Couple that with the fact that the field of meteorology will doubtlessly make great strides in the future (as all sciences do) and such a thing may occur within the lifetimes of our younger generations. That said, I'm in the same camp as anon in that there are probably some variables that are too stochastic to properly model, and I also believe there will be limits to even the most advanced computing technology we could possibly comprehend for the future. Computers, the way we've designed them on a fundamental level, can only ever approximate a given value, and so there will always be a small error whenever one is used to model reality. Those errors compound with repeated iterations of a prediction to the point where a much more discernible error exists, and with enough iterations you'll eventually be left with a completely wrong prediction. We may over time reduce the magnitude of those errors, but we will never converge to zero error and we will likely hit a technological wall at some point unless we completely revamp the very fundamentals of how we do computing, and somehow figure out a way to store numerical values with infinite precision using finite hardware.

      TL;DR: forecasting the weather using computers will very likely never be perfect because there will always be technologically derived errors when trying to predict the atmosphere, aside from the likely existence of random/stochastic variables.

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    3. Thrill and anticipation wins for me. If the weather got too predictable this blog wouldn't even exist. Christmas presents are always better wrapped.

      SW

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  99. This winter really does suck! Not many can deny that can you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It sucks much less now than it did two weeks ago. Can't deny that either.

      Delete
  100. I will give you that CCCC. Latest NAM does show a NW movement with the weekend storm but it is the long range NAM which is not very good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not very good and it has a well known NW bias.

      Delete
  101. Side note from earlier. I think Andrew is still here. Spent some time as Macaden, before changing to Snowdog. I would also guess cccc posted as anonymous a few years back and shook thing up while referring to himself as the professional or something. Maybe maybe not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did post anonymously at one point, but I don't remember calling myself the professional or anything of the sort.

      Delete
    2. Oh well, I still have a shot at 500. I will have to wait until the morning for Snowdog. It is probably the 1 hour of sleep the past two days fogging up my brain.

      Delete
  102. I would say Hamlin ended up with between 7-10 inches from Sunday until now. Very hard to measure due to the wind.

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  103. See if Hamlin and others got 8+ inches of snow from Sunday to Monday; how can anyone say winter has been a bust. And we still have LES Advisory.

    ReplyDelete

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