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Tuesday, January 19

It's a Nor'easter! For Them, Not Us

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

We got some snow! Woohoo! No, really, it was nice to actually have to forecast some snow, and we are now bumped up to well over a foot on the season!

Sarcasm aside, there is a pretty significant storm on the way, and it's headed oh so close...but so far away from us. All signs are pointing to a high-impact event for the Mid-Atlantic. From DC, to Philly, possibly NYC and New England. Some will be measuring snow in feet (or 1'+). As it looks right now, we are just too far west. Go figure, all season long we've been on the warm side of storms, with everything developing and hooking west. Now, the biggest storm of the season, goes east.

Take a look at some of these totals from the latest Wednesday morning 0z NAM:
Still one to watch, at least for another day or so...

343 comments:

  1. Well latest NAM went NW a bite and that model is not great especially long term. Plus as CCCC said it has a NW bias. However, the Oz GFS also moved NW somewhat and rode up the coast a bit more. Still not getting us but getting closer. At least we can keep hope alive until the new Euro comes out in 2 hours.

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  2. There is a shocker. We are missing a BIG snowstorm. West, East. We miss most BIG snowstorms so we are used to it. Some will see much more snow from this one event than we have seen all year. Our wimpy 15" of snow will pale in comparison to the 1-2ft or more the mid-atlantic sees. Sorry for the negativity but I am getting sick of missing every big storm over the past several years.

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    Replies
    1. Dude - you sound like a real whiner. Why don't you move to a snow belt so that you'll finally be happy.

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    2. Really did you forget about the Blizzard from last year, and the 14+ inches of snow which fell in one day over the City. To make the statement that we always miss out on the big storms is not correct. You might want to get your memory tested.

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    3. Hey tool - I'd like to see you drive through that stuff like my family has to do coming back from Florida, instead of sitting by your computer in your parents' basement wishing for a big storm. I can guarantee you'd be crying for mama.....

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    4. Anon 9:21 -- just read your post. I totally agree; as it is those who are sitting at home and have no other option to be work during winter weather events and blizzard. They are also probably having their mom bring them hot chocolate or an adult beverage every couple of hours too.

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  3. The only thing I see on the radar is a wimpy clipper next Tuesday but that is it. Boring. Watch the next storm will go to our West, LOL

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  4. This winter is horrible and there is nothing on the horizon storm wise to change that. Time to move on Snowdog and get ready for spring. We will be lucky in the city to get 40 inches for the whole year. Remember the pattern has changed and some will keep telling us wait until February and March. That is what we heard about January.

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    Replies
    1. Hey remember last February when we received close to 50" of snow during the months, and the multiple wind chill advisories. Matter of fact there was so much snow in the City of Rochester that it made it next to impossible for snow plows to get down the side streets as there was no place to put the snow; especially when cars were parked on the street. Many of the City residents who park on the street had to park in downtown garages for a couple of days, just so the plows and trucks could come to take all of the snow away. Imagine having to work til 11pm, parking in one of the downtown garages, and then having to walk to your home/apt in -5 temps. So remember what some of us experienced last year, before you being to talk about "oh we always miss out on the winter storms, winter experience, etc." By the way LES Advisory up til 4pm, with another 2-4 inches of snow expected.

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  5. Wonder if those living in Buffalo are saying to themselves, "God I miss that 7+ feet of snow".

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  6. Blah, Blah, Blah the blog dialog thickens even further. This is like the heckling they are trying to do away with at high school basketball games. "More snow we need more snow, No more snow this winter stinks. The storm misses again". Just start saying "air ball" when we are going to miss a storm and "start the bus" when we think winter is done. Just please change up the wording for this garbage to keep it more amusing.

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  7. Anonymous 8:48 this winter you should walk to work that will save you the step of parking your car, maybe that would help. Please, wow.

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  8. Still time for this east coast storm to hit Rochester. Do not give up hope yet.

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  9. Live look-in at the News 8 weather blog:

    http://i.imgur.com/Ps7m8rA.gifv

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  10. Any chance this BIG east coast storm will hit Rochester? I have a big party planned on Saturday.

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  11. In response to HP: This winter sucks should translate to: Mother Nature has failed to extract a large, bountiful snow from her bosoms onto the Rochester area.
    More snow, we need more snow should translate to: I am eager for Mother Nature to relase plentiful snow from her gracious hands and let it fall upon our area in succulent amounts.
    And when a storm misses us translate to: Oh heavenly Mother Nature, we are gracious for what you have given us and we understand that others need the precious snow more than the Rochester area and please understand that the bloggers on this site are beyond desperate in their attempts to analyze your great powers to produce snow.

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    Replies
    1. This reads like the same Zeus that sometimes posts on AmericanWx. But that guy lives in New England...

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  12. Zeus, that's what I am talking about. Change it up a bit, that was a great start. If we can all blog more creatively like that it wont be quite so depressing to read. The winter is still going to suck, but it will be easier to take.

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  13. I'll take poignant humor over incessant whining anytime anywhere.

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    Replies
    1. What about dutch ovens?

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    2. I guess it depends what I had for dinner that night.

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    3. Only if you're into that sort of thing ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    4. It is taking a Herculean effort to pretend this winter is going well. I'm mostly fine with it for a season. I mean. At least it's not raining anymore. If we can't have snow, bring on the humor.

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  14. For sure. Persistent complaining is a downer. I would prefer a one hundred percent chance of a big storm MISSING us over a zero percent chance of a big storm hitting us. Just another half full glass of s#it.

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  15. CCCC just checking I know the weather nation is focusing on this mid atlantic storm this weekend. Just wondering beyond that is there anything showing up on the models after that for maybe another storm on the horizon next week? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Maybe. Still early. But maybe.

      I'm really getting tired of the word "maybe."

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    2. Sorry CCCC I was not trying to be negative or funny just asking what you were seeing.

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    3. Lol if I came off a bit abrasive then I'm sorry. But the answer is still "maybe."

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    4. No I said maybe in wanting. I would love to get a storm like the one the coast is getting this weekend. Just not have heard any chatter about the models showing anything after this weekend. In fact I heard we may get a warm up?

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    5. There's been a consistent signal for a disturbance to move through mid/late next week, but there hasn't been any consistency or agreement. We're probably going to warm up for a time to start February, but the ensembles hint at the western ridge returning in fairly short order. Not a December redux by any stretch of the imagination.

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    6. Just noticed the self-contradiction...there's been consistency on the disturbance, none on track/intensity.

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  16. Does anyone want to guess what the Buffalo Bills fans and East Coast Snowstorms have in common? Yup, you got it. New England can kiss our a#%. Which brings me to a saying I use every December for the last 16 seasons, there is always next season. I guess you have to be a Bills fan to get that one.

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    Replies
    1. Now this is way funnier than fake Snowdog. And simultaneously sad. But funny none the less.

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  17. Sorry, that joke was derived from yet another sleepless night. Gotta love that LES.

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    Replies
    1. I get it don't worry. Agreed that New England can rest their lips on our collective azzcheeks.

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  18. There will be a blizzard in Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia within the next 3 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  19. Yeppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppp!

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  20. Man, this winter has materialized almost exactly as predicted. Warm December...late start to winter...slow transition to cold and snow...a brief warm up following the first cold snap...middle two weeks cold and snowy....brief warm up to slightly above seasonable temps at the end of the month...

    Will February continue this trend? More cold, snowy and stormy than January. Time will tell.

    In the last post, a conversation got started about whether we prefer to be surprised by what any given winter season, or to know in advance as we do this year. I spent many weak wimpy winters very frustrated, filled with hope and waiting for snow. Now, I have learned enough about winter predictions and outlooks to know what to expect in most years. My opinion is that I prefer knowing what is coming rather than be surprised. This year, it allowed me to procrastinate with fall chores around the house, even doing some painting in November! I also knew that I could buy a motorcycle in October (which I did), and still be able to put many miles on it prior to storage (1,300 miles to be exact). I was/am much more relaxed knowing that winter was coming, just late.

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    1. The warmup looks quite a bit more robust than slightly above seasonable temps the way I see it. But it's almost certainly transient.

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    2. I'm seeing highs in the mid to upper 30s...you think it will be more than that?

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    3. We're referring to different warmups it seems.

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  21. Dc is going to double our pitiful 15" of snow with this one storm.

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  22. Remember 2009-10 when the mid Atlantic cities nearly beat our seasonal total? Then that weird retrograde nor'easter happened and everything was right with the world again. It led to our first and only winter storm warning of the whole season...and it was at the tail end of February. That was the last time we had El Nino conditions too...

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    1. I remember that storm. What a buildup in the local media prior to its arrival. Scott was the first to back off the original consensus of 18-24" down to 10-15" due to the "pinwheel" effect - the dam storm was spinning so fast it reduced the efficiency of its own snow production. It also pumped in more Atlantic air as a result. The result was an unimpressive 12" wet snow, I believe.

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  23. My confusion is in the lack of moisture. You know temps will be marginal in a strong nino but aren't they usually juicy? Well, I'm actually confused about a lot more than just that but what gives with the lack of moisture? Or am I wrong about that?

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    1. You'll usually get some very moisture laden storms due to the strong subtropical jet, but in a standard El Nino pattern they just tend to roll across the southern states. It takes a particular pattern to get one to turn up the coast, and when that happens the results can be pretty spectacular as history has shown (see: huge northeast/mid Atlantic storms in 02/1958, 01/1966, 02/1983 and 03/1992, all strong El Nino winters). That's a large part of what factored into me saying this winter will be "high risk high reward." So far the risk hasn't produced any rewards for us, but most El Ninos don't start delivering on a frequent basis until late in the season. And we still have probably 8 full weeks remaining where climatology still gives us a realistic shot at something.

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    2. lol NBD this winter will be a wiener bring on spring CCCC rong as always lol put any the snow things

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  24. Snowing really hard in Greece right now...where did this snow come from, did I miss something?

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  25. I love the media. EPIC, PARALYZING, CRIPPLING, LIFE THREATENING, LIFE ENDING BLIZZARD.

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    Replies
    1. For some areas of the Northeast who do not experience the type of winters that upstate NY does; it is crippling, etc. So put yourself in their shoes.

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  26. Some Giant pretty snowflakes out there. I'm digging the view. Not enough to have to dig much. But it is the Rochester snow globe effect I love.

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  27. Steady snow all morning in the metro. Rates are about .5 - .75" per hour. Driving conditions aren't the best either so stay safe!

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  28. Steady snow with little wind here in victor. Looks beautiful out. This should build up enough snow for me to run the snowmobile around tonight. I did a few nights ago with barely enough on the ground but I couldn't help myself. Grass is more than covered now which is all I wanted.

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  29. As everyone already mentioned, beautiful winter scene this morning. We will definitely take what we can get at this point. Also, don't let models discourage you right now, with relatively weak tele's and ENSO trending neutral, I would not look at model outlooks over 5 days, otherwise you'll drive yourself insane...

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  30. Who saw this morning coming; boy did it catch the plows by surprise. Perhaps the Northeaster is still possible for our area, as no one saw this morning and today coming.

    Snow beginning to pile up, and agree with an earlier post -- be careful out there - multiple accidents happening all over. Remember to brush off the snow from your car (not just turning your wipers on), and drive safely.

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  31. Beautiful surprise Lake effect! In some aspects better than the noreaster... Don't have to worry about if it will come as rain, start as rain/sleet, when will it change over, will we get dry slotted etc.

    Let it snow.

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  32. Teakettle lake effect is best lake effect. Haven't measured at all but it looks like several new inches of heavenly fluff has fallen even way down here by the Thruway :)

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  33. Love the report of occasion LES with accumulation of 1-2 inches. Are they using the measuring stick at the Airport, cause we know how well that works. Within the City have received 3-4 inches, which if my math is correct -- is slightly more than 1-2 inches. Very disappointed that no one saw this coming, especially those who had to travel along 390 N/S and 104. Still messy out there -- drive careful.

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  34. We did well with this LES event in Hamlin. I would say we got 8-10 inches maybe a little more in a few spots. The sun is causing it to settle a bit now, but it is still deep enough. It came straight down, which does not happen often here.

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    Replies
    1. Honestly that was the hardest I've seen it snow all year, and for a prolonged period too.

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  35. Might as well start the early complaining next wee another storm but looking lie a great lakes cutter with rain darn.

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  36. CCCC what did you mean by "teakettle lake effect"? and could you comment on the nature of this LES event, particularly why it may have caught some of us by surprise?

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    1. Teakettle lake effect is just lake effect that forms with a light wind. It's a semi-regular occurrence on Lake Ontario, and usually it hugs a broad section of the southern shoreline if it moves inland at all. The "teakettle" moniker comes from the fact that its associated convective clouds tend to "boil over" like the steam from a kettle, rather than organize into discrete bands. I've noticed that these sorts of events are, in general, nearly impossible to accurately predict, probably since the mesoscale models have a lot of difficulty resolving the environment that creates them. Last night's runs largely undershot the amount of snow that several areas ultimately received.

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  37. Lol @ the NAM playing pump-n-dump with the weenies in SNE. Imagine being them right now, unlike us they don't have a giant liquid snow machine to keep them satiated while the synoptic gods flip them the bird.

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  38. 4C's... I am watching the reports about the blizzard this weekend. Is it going to be nearly as bad as it is being made out to be? Or is it just bc most of the cities down there are not as accustomed to this kind of weather?

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    1. It's going to be very bad even by our standards. Around 2 feet of snow with gusts nearing 55 mph is what the NWS Sterling office has for the DC metro, which would be a high-end storm in our region. I'd say the current forecast would put this storm approximately on par with 03/1999 in terms of severity. Combine that with the much higher population, more extensive road system and less robust plow fleet in the DC area and you have a storm that could shut down the nation's capital for at least a few days. Thankfully for them we'll be heading into the weekend as the storm really ramps up, so the level of disruption while substantial will not be quite as bad as it could've been.

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  39. Big Blizzard miss us but keep up the hope because next week we get another big rain storm. Now is that not exciting and does continue that horrible winter we have going.

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    Replies
    1. Are you really disappointed that you are missing the blizzard, did you not seen what CCCC wrote. Imagine being in that. Happy with the amount of snow we have received to date, and glad that this time around we will be missing the Blizzard.

      Bet you were one of the few that were disappointed not to have lived in Buffalo last year when they received over 7 feet of snow in a short period of time. Come on, be happy with what we have.

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  40. Oh sunshine, cold air, and snow on the ground. It is a nice day to go for a walk and to simply be outside to enjoy. Great way to end the week.

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    Replies
    1. Definitely a beautiful winter scene out there. How can people not like snow?

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    2. On days like today; have to agree with you!

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  41. OMG. The media is driving me nuts. LIFE OR DEATH BLIZZARD. Yeah it will be if your stupid and think you can drive in it or go out in it. Ridiculous.

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  42. Is it me or does that Storm look like its moving straight north? If it doesnt shift east by this evening then we may catch a piece of it. Remember the blizzard we were supposed to get 3 or 4 years ago that was supposed to crush us and it went straight north over michigan and missed us completely.

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  43. A more northerly system would only make a difference for NYC and far southern New England. That sometimes happens with storms like this though...the infamous "Snowmageddon" storm of 02/2010 was only supposed to deliver 5-8 inches of snow to the Pittsburgh area, but it tracked slightly farther north than expected and brought 18-24 inches instead. This storm really reminds me a lot of that one, so we'll see what happens. Could easily turn into a "positive" bust for some areas along the sharp northern gradient.

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    Replies
    1. So for our area (City of Rochester), we are not supposed to experience any of it? It is very confusing as to what everyone is saying and predicting. If we are; why has no one has been talking about it; except maybe JN, who has appears to be depressed about the lack of Winter Weather Storm activity.

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    2. Most of NYS save for the NYC metro should be spared from anything worse than some high clouds. Our only concerns lie in travel to and from the mid Atlantic region, especially the Baltimore/Washington area down through northern VA.

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  44. So as we watch the mid Atlantic states hunker down for what has to be their 5th or 6th "once in a lifetime" fantasy storm in the past 15 years, I propose a poll question for the blog: Given two choices, and ONLY two choices, which type of hypothetical winter would you generally prefer here in Rochester?

    -A steady nickel-and-dime type winter with a very consistent pack and above average total snowfall, but no storms producing over 8 inches.
    -A roller coaster type winter with a few 10-20 inch storms and one 2+' whopper, but with a far less consistent pack and below average total snowfall.

    There are no wrong answers.

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    Replies
    1. Choice b 100%. I'd just settle for a 2' whopper in my remaining lifetime to tell you the truth. I can only remember one time in this area that we approached 2 feet, thoug I'm sure it's happened more than once since the 70s.

      SW

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  45. I would take the second choice by far. We all want the BIG storm if we are honest with ourselves. The BIG storms are what we remember and talk about. This nickel and dime stuff sucks.

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  46. I agree with Snowdog.

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  47. Not trying to be negative the models are showing no storm opportunities the next 10 days. I now hard to look out that far but the current big storm was seen on the models 10 days in advance and pretty consistent for a wee out. The winter is a struggle here this year oh well.

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    Replies
    1. The current big storm was a rare case of having little to no model chaos at a long lead. The setup was fairly straightforward unlike most.

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  48. Give me the nickle and dime above average snow with consistent pack. Normal life is minimally impacted and I can still do the winter stuff I wait for all year.

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  49. CCCC this question if very difficult for me to answer. I love big storms just as much as snowdog, the bigger the better. That being said I will have to choose nickle and dime. Big storms don't pay the bills, need that OT. The yards look a lot nicer with fresh white. Two feet of snow would look very crusty brown between storms. It would look and feel like march, muddy most of the time. I would definitely 100% take nickle and dime.

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  50. CCCC, what would you choose?

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    1. Option #2. I'm a storm addict by nature, and they don't have to be snowstorms either. Hurricane Sandy is still within the top 10 weather events of my life, to go along with a few severe outbreaks. Granted I don't harbor some sort of visceral hatred for smaller snowfalls, they just leave me rather dissatisfied if they don't lead into something more substantial.

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  51. Today was a perfect winter day after a nickle and dime event. I got to take a nice walk at the park and admire the beauty of the fresh snow. There is nothing better than fresh snowpack.

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    Replies
    1. Would have to agree with you as to how today turned out. Perfect winter day!

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  52. You would have loved the blizzard of 93 or the ice storm of 91. The are the top 2 in my life time.

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    1. I'm pretty meh on ice storms tbh. Would rather not lose power for days on end. I'd pay a pretty penny for a '93 redux though, or better yet a '66 redux.

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  53. I was there for both. 66 was WAY better in my opinion.

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    1. Disagree with WAY better.

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  54. 93 was amazing but more so for Syracuse where there was 43 inches in 24 hours. Thunder snow was a regular occurrence during the storm. I do not think I will ever see one like that again.

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  55. Don't look now but light radar returns are blossoming across the south shore counties. Wonder what that signals regarding the coastal storm...deeper moisture further north perhaps?

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  56. Not to Rochester so who cares.

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    Replies
    1. I cares, because I'm a nerd first and a weenie second.

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  57. Looks like we are getting some bonus snow on a NE wind off lake Ontario. Already an inch of fluff in Gananda.

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  58. The current blizzard warning for NYC has 10-18 inches total. I'd bet a fair chunk of change that most spotters in that area will report numbers on the higher end of that range. Some others on the northern fringe will receive warning amounts having expected much less. This thing just reeks of a more northerly version of 2/5-2/6 2010, where the heavy totals pushed about 20-30 miles further north than expected.

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  59. Choice 2 all the way CCCC. You know you're a real junkie when you find yourself daydreaming during heavy rainfalls in the spring and summer, wondering how many inches this would add up to if it was snow.

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    Replies
    1. Or if we had a bit of elevation.

      I sometimes wonder, if we put a mile tall mountain of non trivial width a few miles into the lake. Perhaps North of Oswego a bit.

      What would the annual snowfall average?

      What would the town be called?

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    2. It would be called Weenieburg and the snowfall average would be 200+ inches. I'd be sure to have an apartment lease on its summit within a week or less.

      For real though it's a bit useless to ask how much snow a 2+" summertime rainfall would produce in the winter. Colder airmasses can't hold as much evaporated moisture so naturally we're going to get less precip from winter storms than summer storms barring very extreme circumstances. Plus there's the added variable of ratios, which fall within a wide range on average around here. And then there's the fact that most of our heavy summertime rainfalls happen within warm advection regimes which would still scream heavy rain even during the heart of winter.

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  60. All of the big cities from DC up to NYC are going to have top 5 storm totals by tomorrow night IMO. Tremendous high-rate snowfall blobs have been traversing the mid Atlantic for awhile with no end in sight, and modeled snow amounts have been trending bodily upward for NYC. This is what happens when you take an El Nino driven subtropical jet and smash it into a robust arctic airmass.

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  61. The next storm goes to our west it looks like and we get rain. WTF. They either go too far East or West.

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  62. And then after a brief cool down we warm up significantly for the first week in February. Yike.

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  63. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

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  64. Long range models look like nothing but cutters to our west the next two weeks. This winter is the pits and looking like worse daily. We may set the record for least snow ever at the airport but at minimum lucky to get 40 inches at best.

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    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

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    2. Also lol @ the phrase "at minimum lucky to get 40 inches at best." So we're going to get at least at most 40 inches huh?

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    3. The link above shows a BIG storm that misses us again.

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  65. 60 percent of the time, it snows all of the time.

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  66. Okay CCCC you do keep sending that hope out a lot. I want you to go on record right now. Do not be afraid have some you know what. Predict are we going to get any synoptic storms with at least 12 inches of snow in Rochester? Please quantify your guess with 1, 2, 3 or perhaps an amazing 3 or more. Go on record do not be afraid.

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  67. Predicting an exact nonzero number of storms is just as dumb as predicting no storms. Request denied, court dismissed, have a nice day.

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    Replies
    1. 12 inchers aren't typical.

      How about everyone's over under on number of 6" plus events. I believe kroc averages 4 per winter.

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    2. It's extremely unlikely that we don't get at least one 6+" storm the rest of this winter. Probably 50/50 that we get at least two. Three might be pushing it.

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  68. Thought maybe you would not go on record most weather weenies are afraid.

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  69. We will get at least two 12 inch or more storms before this winter season ends. Also a severe ice storm is something to get an eye on before this winter ends.

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  70. New York city I getting crushed right now. DC did not get the worst of it. It was mostly North and West of them. The storm went further North than the models predicted.

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  71. The models are hinting at another Nor'easter next week, but guess what. It would be a miss for us. Obviously it is way out and things could change but even the NWS states it will probably not impact our area.

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  72. "THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IF HINTS OF ANOTHER NOR`EASTER LATE NEXT WEEK OCCUR...WITH THESE AFOREMENTION CLIPPER LOWS LIKELY TO NOT IMPACT OUR REGION."

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  73. I don't think late next week has much of a leg to stand on, even for the coast. If something happens it'll be more likely to wait until after the transient warmup.

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  74. Since spreadsheet guy opened it up, I'll go on record we get at least one 12 inch + storm before April 1, if I had to guess and
    let's face it we're all just guessing, it happens late in the season and it's a doozy. It also wouldn't shock me if we had such a wild march that come April we're all so sick of the snow no one even remembers all the complaining we did in December and January.

    That's my completely unscientific prediction but you can be damn sure if it comes true I'm going to throw it back in all your NBDealing faces quotes and all!

    SW

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  75. Models show a warm-up coming in the long term and this winter keeps getting worse and worse.

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  76. Lost in everything is the fact that we've already passed last January's snow total.

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    Replies
    1. That's why I like you CCCC, always sticking to the facts.
      SW

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  77. Central Park reported a 25.1" storm total at 7pm with heavy snow still falling. No longer any question this becomes NYC's largest snowfall ever. I'm actually pretty happy about that because that farce of a "storm" from 2006 doesn't deserve the top spot.

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    1. Not true. Kroc spotters report NYC has received 9 inches.

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  78. Wish we could get a large storm.

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  79. With a blistering STJ anything is possible. I'd be kind of disappointed if we don't manage to clean up on a whopper this winter, particularly since an El Nino of this magnitude yields a rare window for tremendously moisture laden winter storms, and also since that STJ is going bye-bye when we flip to La Nina for next winter.

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  80. Think we just missed the whopper CCCC and fear there will not be another one this winter.

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  81. There have been plenty of winters with multiple huge storms.

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    1. As in...wasn't it last year that Boston got hit with 2 or 3 big ones in a row?

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    2. Yep. That's not the only such case either. Rochester had multiple whoppers in a short span during 1959-60, 1965-66 and 1998-99. 1977-78 delivered a pair of monsters within a two week span, both of which nailed our region with purpose. We also got drilled on 01/03/96, followed less than a week later by the infamous I-95 Blizzard of '96. 1997-98 delivered nuclear poundage to the Northeastern quadrant of the country on three separate occasions. 02/2010 was nothing but Atlantic nukes from start to finish, including the retro-coastal that walloped the Catskills with 2-4 feet of snow and pounded Rochester with over a foot of 8:1 frozen concrete. And 2010-11 featured a big storm pattern on steroids for a full month, which anyone from NYC to Boston will recall with great clarity and varying fondness. It's far from a rarity to have multiple big storms in the NE/MA in the span of one winter.

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  82. The cold high pressing down from Canada shortly into February is something to pay attention to...could dampen the magnitude of our warmup and perhaps lead to a wintrier outcome for the consistently modeled storm system for that time frame. Key operative word: COULD.

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  83. From this morning's NWS discussion...
    THE RECORD WARMTH EXPERIENCED IN
    THE MONTH LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAYS HAS BEEN REPLACED BY TYPICAL
    MID WINTER COLD AS GENERAL TROUGHING HAS BEEN FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
    HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE PUSH
    TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
    THAT BROAD TROUGHING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR WEST.
    THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
    FOR OUR REGION TO START THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

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    1. Again this winter is shot no matter how much CCCC and the other hope mongers want to convince otherwise. We are on pace for one of the least snowiest winters ever. In fact we may break the record for the least amount of snow. But as posted above CCCC will give you hope about a HP in Canada helping us stay cooler and COULD help a storm develop but it is all trash. I rather take stock in the NW. Then you have people like HP posting glad he did not get the 30 inches because he does not want a muddy mess really?

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  84. If that is the case I am glad we didn't get 30 inches of snow yesterday. I would hate to see it melt off so quickly into a sloppy muddy mess.

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  85. We need less than 7.7 inches of snow for the entire rest of the winter to beat the all time futility record. It's just not a realistic proposition anymore. And that warmup to start February still doesn't look "prolonged"...guess the NWS has a different definition of that word than I do.

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  86. By the way, if this month's snowfall pace maintained itself relative to climo, then we would finish a couple inches north of 60...comfortably outside the ten least snowy winters ever.

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  87. Time will tell but there does not look like anything on the horizon snow fall wise the next 10-14 days. That will take us to about February 7th and we have about 6 weeks left at best. I say we get 45 inches at most.

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    Replies
    1. What if I told you that the 12z GFS shows a pair of Northeast snowstorms?

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    2. Can you elaborate on those pair of NE storms the GFS is showing? I see nothing but a possible GLC that would give us rain.

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  88. I will tell you that you are grasping at straws and neither will come near us even if they were there.

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    Replies
    1. Oh please please please attach your name to that prediction!

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  89. Well again, this run is a one-off occurrence just by the nature of operational models. And I wouldn't dare make any declarations based off of it. But let's examine what you're seemingly implying here:

    -If the models don't show any storms then we won't get any storms.
    -If the models do show some storms then they're obviously lying and we won't get any storms.

    What you're basically saying is that no matter what any guidance shows at any point, there is a 100% chance that we're going storm-less. Why is this the case? Are we stuck in a pattern that causes storms to dump snow everywhere except here? Is El Nino causing some kind of magical anti-storm bubble to form over the Northeast? I'm very interested in reading a scientific explanation for this.

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    Replies
    1. Yes the El Nino bubble over us. Any storms that do take place in the future will be for mid-atlantic and northern NE just like this past weekend. It is over for us please just bring on the spring weather and go with that instead of false winter hope.

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    2. So it's the ol' magic bubble then. I'd like a little more detail here...what exactly about El Nino is causing this bubble? In what way is El Nino coupling with the atmosphere to cause every storm, both past and future, to avoid us? And why haven't the models been designed to account for this?

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    3. It is a fact that during a strong El Nino season we get much less snowfall just look at the yearly averages since 1950. The mid -atlantic areas do better it is a fact. Time is running out this winter so lets move on and still stop talking about a big pattern change that is likely to bring a big storm or 2 for us. Not happening.

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    4. That still doesn't say anything about why it's literally impossible for us to get snowstorms during El Nino. And I did look at the yearly averages since 1950...the mean for El Nino winters is slightly over 96 inches. I have another question: since La Nina generally produces opposite effects from El Nino, would you expect us to have a larger than average number of storms next winter? Or will we simply get no storms for a different reason? And what about ENSO neutral winters...what will the reason be for us getting zero storms in those winters?

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    5. We can go back and forth with stats and reasons for or against storms. The question is the same as yesterday do you have enough you know what to go on record for a prediction for the rest of this winter. I am in fact have with lucky we get over 50 inches total at the airport and I say not one storm of more than 10 inches the whole winter. How about you CCCC or are you once again going to hide behind with what could or could not happen. You are up.

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    6. So you've chosen to dodge my questions and attempt to re-engage in your useless member measuring contest. That's fine and all but I don't play troglodytic fratboy games. You can bloviate to yourself all you want, I'll stick to facts and objectivity.

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    7. The facts that we have had far less snow and fewer storms in an El Nino year. Those are the facts that you have decided to ignore.

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    8. 96" on average for El Ninos vs 99" overall average. How is that "far less snow?"

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    9. How about storms of 10 inches of more on average? Not many during strong El Nino years than you.

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    10. There has been at least one storm of 10" or more in 4 of 6 total strong El Ninos since 1950. That includes multiple such instances in 1957-58, 1965-66 and 1997-98. Represents a slightly above average rate of occurrence.

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    11. So you are finally going to show you have a pair and are on record saying we will get at least one 10 inch storm this winter?

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    12. Why is it so important to you that I play your dumb little game? Is there just nothing else going on in your life? Give it a rest.

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  90. Breaking the least snowfall record wouldn't be the worst possible outcome. We could come in just a few inches and over. Then we wouldn't even have a record to show for the suffering through the winter. Either way it won't bug me as much as some, I simply won't let it. Enjoy your missery.

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  91. Speaking of records, apparently NYC fell just 0.1" shy of their largest snowstorm ever with this past storm. The weenies down there must be totally devastated...lol

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  92. I'm sorry to inform everyone but as of tomorrow morning the WROC weather blog will be temporarily shut down until April 1st. Archived material will be available but new posts will not be allowed. The moderators apologize for any inconvenience but this is a necessary measure to prevent the furthering of any meteorological evidence that the Rochester area may receive additional snowfall this year. As has already been posted, there is now a 0%chance that any snowstorms will hit within 30 miles of Monroe County. Although meso scale models are having difficulty resolving the details of this existing "anti-snow" zone, it is presumably the telekinetic result of amateur snow troll wish casting.

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    Replies
    1. I'll take credit. Don't want anyone on here to think CCCC makes anon posts. Sometimes I sign my posts but sometimes I don't bother since my posts never contribute anything scientific in nature.

      SW

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  93. Someone get James Randi on the line and tell him that we have a psychic in our midst.

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  94. The 12z Euro from hour 192 to hour 240 shows you what happens when you have a digging western trough and no confluent high to the north.

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  95. Please tell us what it shows CCCC that is what you are fishing for us to ask right?

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    Replies
    1. First I want you to tell me what you believe it shows without looking at it yourself. No peeking allowed.

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  96. That we are going to have a big warm-up without that HP?

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    Replies
    1. Ding ding ding. If the high scoots east like the Euro depicts then the low will slice northward, but if the high anchors in place like the GFS shows then we'll have a colder outcome. Then there's every possibility in between.

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  97. Are you trying to protect yourself against saying the warm-up was going to be brief? You are awesome at playing both sides so you will look good. You sure you are not a politician?

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  98. Even if you take the Euro verbatim the warmup is brief. Pronounced, but brief. I'm not using op runs for that call anyway, I'm using ensemble means. They all have shown a return to seasonable temps not far into February for many consecutive runs.

    News flash: if a storm is way out in time then there are going to be a lot of plausible outcomes. Not granting consideration to all of them would be flat out dishonest.

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    Replies
    1. CCCC are the models showing another possible storm next Friday for Washington, Philly and NYC again?

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  99. My folks mover to Allentown,PA a couple years ago. They got crushed with 31.9" at the airport. Allentown all time 24 hr record.

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  100. Wow. What a storm we missed. Now the big cities have seen more snow in one storm than we have see all season. Yike. One to remember for them. Looks like a boring weather week ahead for us and a warm up. We will end up below normal snowfall for January since there does not seem to be much snow in the forecast this week. Looks like mostly rain. February looks to start out warm or at least above normal. I don't think this February will be anything like last February. I also think I went to high on snowfall this year. I believe now we will end up between 50-60" at most. Hopefully I am wrong. We have had 21.6" of snow so far and about 90% of that has been lake effect. We have had no notable synoptic storms as of yet, just weak little clippers. We will see what happens in February.

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    Replies
    1. Just keep in mind that last February is when received over 44+ inches of snow; it was a record amount for the month of February.

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  101. There's something we can take solace in going forward though...any football fans on this blog will now be able to enjoy the Superbowl without caring who wins.

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    Replies
    1. Yup, to much air in the ball. Deflated balls in the mile high might have made the difference. They pulled that trick out of their hat one year to early.

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  102. Amen to that. This little warm up and lack of measurable snow will give me a chance to work on snowmobiles. We rode them a little around the property but I knew carbs needed to be cleaned before any heavy use. That became apparent when it took so long to start them last night that I broke pull cord on both! Since we can't do anything to change the weather might as well get used to it and make the most of it. Life is too short to complain especially about something we have no control over. To each his own though

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  103. I found a site that gives playback of the NAM and GFS model but can't find the euro, can someone post a website where euro runs are available? Thanks.

    SW

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    1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

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  104. For what SW to see the winter that never happen? The spring like temperatures coming?

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  105. There will be a blizzard in The Flower City within the next 10 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. "Oh you so funny"

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    2. I like your tenacity blizzard guy. Hope you're right.

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    3. Blizzard guy is FOC because there is nothing on the models for the next 2 weeks.

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  106. Still no storms on the horizon for WNY. This is getting very depressing for snow lovers.

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  107. This is the story of Dave the Football Fan's Superbowl party experience:

    Dave - "Our team didn't score a touchdown on the opening kickoff. Not a good sign folks."
    Dave - "We went three-and-out on our first drive and have to punt. We may not score a touchdown in this game."
    Dave - "Defense just allowed a field goal. This game sucks."
    Dave - "Still no touchdowns in sight. This game sucks."
    Dave - "Defense allowed a touchdown. This game still sucks."
    Dave - "Only a field goal this drive? This game keeps getting worse and worse."
    Dave - "We won't score any touchdowns this game."
    Dave - "Another field goal. Boring. This game still sucks and we won't score any touchdowns."
    Dave - "Still no touchdowns in sight."
    Dave - "Still no touchdowns in sight."

    John - "Go home Dave you're being a downer."

    Dave - "Why can't you just accept that this game will suck and we won't score any touchdowns?"

    Fred - "It's not even halftime and we're only down by four points."

    Dave - "But the fact is that this game sucks and we won't score any touchdowns."

    And then Dave gets kicked out of the party and spends the rest of the night drinking alone. His team goes on to win the Superbowl on a miraculous last-second touchdown, their only one of the game.

    end

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  108. Clever CCCC. You said yesterday there were 2 big storms on the GFS for NE? Can you elaborate because I see nothing?

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  109. Warm up the next 2 weeks at least so much for the big pattern change. We are seriously looking at one of the top 3 least snowiest winters ever.

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