I CAN'T FIND SIGNS OF A COOL DOWN
You've seen me write about how long term model forecasts beyond 5 days really are useful for nothing more than either a change in trend or perhaps entertainment value. Well lately, I've been trending towards looking at the extended outlook, and not for the next big storm, but for the next big change!
I'll admit, I love looking at things like NAO, AO, PNA, PDO, AMO, etc to get a good idea as to the overall pattern and how it will affect our area. Lately though, there isn't much motion going on. The indices listed are not favorable for a widespread, long-term east coast cool-down. It's not that I dislike warm weather, I really don't mind it, but I think it's the natural "devil's advocate" that each meteorologist is instilled with. What do I mean? Well, if we're in a cold streak, we're looking for the warm-up. A string of soggy days? When's it going to be dry! You get my drift.
It's amazing to me though that this month isn't even cracking the top-10 warmest July's yet. Our average monthly temperature so far is 74.1 degrees. Now that's still 3.7 degrees above normal which is a fairly healthy departure, but we'd have to climb another .2 degrees on average to register at the #10 spot (July 1999.) The warmest July you ask? July 1921 with a staggering average temperature of 77.8 degrees. And that was sans-air conditioning!
So anyways, here's the 180 hour forecast that brings us to next Saturday at the 850 mb level. Our area falls into the 20-25 degree C coloring at that level. That has corresponded to 90 or above so far this year. Now I know its a ways out, but the bottom line is that the models aren't even HINTING at even a modest cool down. They're going warmer!
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