LOOK AT THE NEXT STORM THURSDAY & FRIDAY
The area is now under a Winter Storm Watch for the POTENTIAL of heavy, wet snow for a while Friday morning into the early afternoon. A front will stall early Friday just South of NY early Friday. Developing low pressure will ride along that front and bring a period of moderate precipitation to the region Friday morning.
It does appear that the storm will be far enough South to produce mostly wet snow for the Rochester metropoliton through Friday afternoon. A solid 4-8" is possible but up to 10" South where some heavier snow may develop closer to the storm center. As we always say, track means everything this time of year and just a 30 mile drift North will change the forecast. Please check back tomorrow for more!
Hope you are right about the lower snowfall total. Come to think of it no I don't--I hope it's all rain.
ReplyDeleteWhat? The NWS has issued a winter storm watch for Friday. What's up with that?
ReplyDeleteYeah, they're predicting 6-10 inches of heavy, wet snow. Where did that come from?
ReplyDeleteWatch by tomorrow the NWS will have the winter storm watch down.
ReplyDelete1-3 inches is a pretty low snow total but that's what we will get. Iv'e seen anywhere from 3-10 or several inches being forecasted! It doesn't get any better that. Monday-tuesday rain, maybe sleet then back to snow at night? Such a Nice day today folks!
ReplyDeleteMuch of the snow will fall during the daylight hours for this upcoming storm. The strong late February sun, combined with the fact that temps will be near the freezing mark and plenty of road treatment should allow the roads to be slushy as opposed to deeply snow packed. Friday night could be a mess once the sun goes down and everything that tried to melt on the roads during the day begins to freeze up.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned higher totals south. Do you feel, then, that the sleet/mix line will be safe enough to our south that locations south of Rochester with the heavier precip closer to the low will still be all snow and won't balance out due to mix keeping totals down there? It seems to me that although precip will be more intense south due to being closer to the low, it is also more likely that sleet will come down for a time there and keep their totals balanced out with areas to the north.
Looks like the fact that the storm is DEEPENING as it passes may help throw enough warm air around here to lower snow amounts. It's another VERY difficult call as to type. If all snow then we get a very wet and potentially damaging wet snowfall. If rain over to snow then amounts are much lower.
ReplyDeleteI'm not putting numbers on it tonight because there are too many unknowns. We'll have to wait for 12Z tomorrow until I'll feel more comfy. Also worried about the wealth of warm air to our South. This time of year with the forecast track, rain may be more likely than snow. These storms can surprise, we'll see!\
Scott
Scott, are you thinking rain south meaning south of 5&20? Or are you talking ny/pa border? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHere we go. Whenever rain becomes an increasing possibility 36 to 48 hours out, it almost always results in more rain or mix than expected and lower numbers. Gonna be another "pull your hair out" kind of forecast. Good luck, Scott. You've got to be getting sick of these p-type issue forecasts.
ReplyDeleteScott! Don't do it man! Did you really have to say those words? 'damaging snowfall'. Dang. LOL. Now you got my juices flowing- I'm sure you regret it now. 0z looks colder again, BTW. Also, I don't get why anyone who is rooting for rain looks at blogs like this- just lost on me. Let it SNOW! RochesterDave
ReplyDelete0z does NOT look colder on the GFS. It does on the NAM, however...but only when compared the the 18z run. Both GFS and NAM are WARMER than the 12z runs. Don't get excited yet, people. This storm has "high bust potential" written all over it.
ReplyDeleteQuestion is...will the National Weather Service stay the course with the Watch into a Warning, or will they drop it to an Advisory. They've had some embarassing busts this winter with the synoptic storms as they've consistently underestimated how north the mix line has come. I'm sure they're going to be extra cautious with this one.
ReplyDeleteDon't get too excited! Rain over to wet snow is on the table. This is why I won't put numbers on it yet, too soon! I'm SO tired of these close tracking storms...
ReplyDeleteScott
Well, what's even more annoying, Scott, is that even when the storms track a little farther away, they end up being too compact for their effect to reach us. This one is tracking to our south and east, yet will still give us slop. I used to think I knew the perfect track to give Rochester a lot of snow, but now i'm rethinking it all. Seems we can't win no matter what. There's either too much cold air in place and it keeps the snow to the south...or not enough cold air in place even with the storm remains south of us. Can't win, I tell ya.
ReplyDeleteBy next Tuesday we will have bare ground with temps rising into the 50's MOnday and Tuesday with rain. Flooding may be a problem.
ReplyDeleteDK: best trak is up the eastern slopes of the apps. But that happens once every five years. If a storm comes from upper midwest and goes across mid Pa then we get help from our friend L. Ontario. But when it comes from the mid south, we get sleet - rain. Somehting with the lower great lakes plain allows the warm air to move right into the lower Genesee Valley. If Erie or Jamestown goes to mix, Rochester will in less than 1/2 hour. Ive seen it hundreds of times. The models have a huge weakness here. But I'm still hoping this is the exception. LOL. RochesterDave
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