MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT...
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Overall thinking of this storm from what Scott posted yesterday seems to be holding true. As I look over the latest data (06z) the storm passes to the south, through central Pennsylvania, along with the 850 mb low. That keeps most of western NY on the cold side of this storm and mostly snow. (If you go by models alone)
The 0z and 6z runs still hold with the solid idea of 4 to 8 inches with some places south into the Southern Tier and possibly Finger Lakes get near 10 inches of a heavy wet snow as you get closer to the center of the storm and higher elevations. Timing of the snow could be between 2 to 4 am. Burst of 1 to 3 inches are possible by day break, and with the wet nature of this snow it will make for a very slick and potentially hazardous commute. The rest of the day Friday looks like wet snow for Rochester.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT
This is not a slam dunk, if this storm drifts 30 to 50 miles more to the north then our snow amounts drastically get cut and we are talking more about a rain/snow mix early on then to snow.
Scott started to mention this last night that as this storm deepens and strengthens as it passes to our south there could be a good surge of warmth that also limits the snow amounts. This storm is in the process of developing in the panhandle of Texas, with the 12z run of the models later this morning and afternoon we will have a much better idea on numbers and overall scenario.
Other weather outlets are now saying the very latest data show this storm will be stronger with more snow than earlier thought. Any thoughts from the channel 8 weather team?
ReplyDeleteFor Rochester I think 4-8 inches is a solid forecast. My thought is the warmth doesn't get as far north and we see all snow in the city and points north of 5/20. It could stay all snow for most of the area tonight. You go south and especially southeast into parts of the southern Tier and Finger Lakes there will be some mixing but just between the wintry mix and snow to the north there could be places getting 10 or more inches of snow. -Brian
ReplyDeleteWhat's the big difference between this 850mb low storm and the last 850mb low storm that gave us nothing?
ReplyDeleteThis 850 mb low stays south and passes to our south. The busted storm the 850 mb low passed to our west and to our north.
ReplyDeleteBecause this one is more south. Also the surface storm looks like it will be strengthening as it passes unlike the last storm that was weakening and in the mature stage.
Very little in similarities between these storms, accept the challenge of the forecast.
More precip surging farther north out ahead of the low, Anonymous. No two lows are the same.
ReplyDeletebrian, was your previous post for 4-8 based on latest 12z?
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteWhat does last night's 0z ECMWF have for us for tomrrow's storm? Is it more aggressive with precip totals than the GFS and NAM?
Does anyone know what the 12z GFS run showed today?
ReplyDeleteThis one looks like it will be fun! Time hook up the plow. I feel bad for Scott, Brian and Stacey when it comes to predicting this one. Gonna be a slick ride into work in the morning!
ReplyDeleteEither way. No big deale once again. 4-8 is nothing.
ReplyDeleteChris, long time no see. Ready for plowing?
ReplyDeleteChris, I think you should skip work and come plow for me :-) Should be interesting to see how this one plays out. I know it's tricky so I won't be expecting much and anything more will be bonus snow.
ReplyDeleteWOW can not belive it the NWS in Buffalo has issued a winter storm warning can not remember the last time I saw that. We shall see what happens they have 6-10 inches with winds picking up tomorrow with gusts 35 mph. Where is DK and News 8?
ReplyDeleteI agree, where is Scott?
ReplyDeleteProbably getting some rest. Warnings are up! Lets rock n role
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm Warning is now in effect. 6 to 10 inches looks likely. Still think a mix will slip in across the southern half of the southern tier counties. But anywhere from Dansville north looks like a lock with mostly if not ALL snow. I have very little doubt in my mind that this will be ALL snow for the Rochester metro. It will be a heavy wet snow. Not sure if it will be a damaging snow, but it could border on it if the higher end of that 6 to 10 inch range is realized, and if the snow is very wet and sloppy, which it looks like it will be given the milder temps comparatively. Given that much of the snow will fall during the daylight hours, road surfaces should get a little help from the sun's heat by midday into early afternoon IF the snow doesn't fall at too heavy of a rate.
ReplyDeleteImportant update on the storm will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Working hard to analyze the information and put the proper forecast together.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Dave, my brother was in a serious snowmobile accident a couple weeks ago so focus has been on him and his family. We almost lost him. Shoot me an email again. I didn't get a chance to get back to you. I am excited to see what we get from this storm. I haven't had time to look at any models today because we got the call at 5 this morning that my uncle passed away. We can not catch a break! Ginger, you know I will make my way to your driveway :)
ReplyDeleteWell, even if the snowfall from this event is less than some of us enthusiasts hope for, it is surely not the end of the snow season- by a long shot. But, I have snowdrop crocus' blooming on the E side of my house... Tough buggers.
ReplyDelete