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Tuesday, March 22

UPDATE ON SNOW FORECAST


Written by: Scott Hetsko

Snow will begin to fall in the area between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. Wednesday. It appears that a few hours of moderate or heavy snow may fall in the morning. There will likely be a mix with sleet or rain closer to the Southern Tier but all snow for Rochester.
You can see that I've got up to 8" for portions of Wyoming County Eastward to Yates County. Higher elevations may get an extra inch or two there. The good news is that after this snow passes, sunshine will dominate the weekend and most of next week as well.

Posted by News 8 Weather

18 comments:

  1. Ginger in WaylandMarch 22, 2011 at 1:01 PM

    I was one always routing for the storms but I have been in my springtime set of mind...channel 13 is calling for 7" in the Dansville area..I'm in Wayland...UGG!

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  2. UnknownMarch 22, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    Guess you and Ron will get one last ride in. Enjoy!!

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  3. Support your local farmMarch 22, 2011 at 2:37 PM

    They would call this an onion snow down in NE PA. Believe it or not, late season snow is actually good for local farmers. Water from snowmelt holds extra nutrients for prospective vegetation to use when the real warmth arrives. Circle of nature, my friends.

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  4. Sal in LyonsMarch 22, 2011 at 3:34 PM

    I have a name for snow this late in the season as well but it's not onion snow.
    (This is a family blog!)

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  5. DKMarch 22, 2011 at 3:50 PM

    Let this be a real time example of what Scott and Brian keep cautioning about writing off snow this early. You just can't trust weather in Western New York this time of year. Ma Nature always has a trick or two up her sleeve.

    I think a solid 4" looks good for the Rochester metro. The models seem to have the swath of heaviest snow down pretty good now. Those areas around Geneseo and Pen Yann that were snow starved earlier in the season will get another boost to their snowfall total for winter 2010/11, probably just not at the time you all would have preferred it.

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  6. Sal in LyonsMarch 22, 2011 at 4:09 PM

    The NWS has just issued a winter weather advisory for the region.

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  7. SnowFanMarch 22, 2011 at 5:40 PM

    Yep, the NWS is forecasting the EXACT snowfall total range that Scott already forecasted over a day ago.

    Seriously Hetsko, what's with your accuracy, man.

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  8. Erin from WebsterMarch 22, 2011 at 6:35 PM

    Scott,
    Any chance for lake enhancement with this system?

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  9. AnonymousMarch 22, 2011 at 11:39 PM

    i too see a chance for LE Enhancement. Plus the latest computer model is pretty aggressive with total precip up and into monroe county. With the heaviest still just south of the thruway. But w/ old Lake Ontario, I wouldn't be surprised to get surprised with a rather big snowstorm. Remember, some of our biggest storms are with a similar track and the temps are several deviations below normal. Now, this wont be huge. But I could see several areas coming in with a foot. Even in Monroe county. But stick w/ Scott. I'm a dreamer.

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  10. DKMarch 23, 2011 at 12:17 AM

    The fact that the snow will be quite wet, and the likelihood that it will struggle to stick initially will keep us under a foot, in my opinion. Lake enhancement will likely develope, but I would expect it to add an additional 1 to 3 inches to our synoptic totals. The NAM and GFS are both more aggressive with the total output, I agree. I still think that Rochester will fall within the range that Scott mapped out, but instead of being on the lower end of that, I now believe that we'll be on the higher end. 5" looks about right for the Rochester airport. Lower totals to the east, higher totals to the west. Best totals of all will be south of Rochester. I predict the biggest winner of all will be across teh Bristol Hills. 10 to 12 inches could fall high atop Bristol mountain.

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  11. AnonymousMarch 23, 2011 at 2:15 AM

    I agree with DK. One worry is what I see as the 500 mb low hanging way back into the midwest. We saw this about 2 mos ago with a big bust. Plus, several areas in Mich. are already seeing rain and sleet where they expected snow. Scott?

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  12. Sal in LyonsMarch 23, 2011 at 7:00 AM

    Still no snow in Lyons at 7 am.

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  13. AnonymousMarch 23, 2011 at 7:08 AM

    where's the snow?

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  14. M in HiltonMarch 23, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    No snow in Hilton at 7 either...

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  15. M in HiltonMarch 23, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    ...which is bizarre, because according to the radar map, it looks like it is supposed to be snowing heavily over us right now.

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  16. AnonymousMarch 23, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    Snowing in Avon.. roads were VERY slippery this morning.

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  17. AnonymousMarch 23, 2011 at 7:30 AM

    There will be no snow in the Rochester metro. The air is to dry.

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  18. News 8 WeatherMarch 23, 2011 at 7:43 AM

    I've adjusted the snowfall forecast in a new post. I disagree there will be NO SNOW in Rochester because as of 7:45 some snow is coating in spots. Technically that is snow. I think we are in the range of 1-4 there will be a drop off from where a heavy snow band sets up and where it doesn't - Brian

    ReplyDelete

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