KNEE JERK FORECASTING...
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Regular readers of this blog may have noticed that I was silent this morning as a few people were already saying that Rochester wouldn't get the forecasted amount. This was as early as 8am! The snowfall forecast was for the entire day, not for the overnight.
The map is the observed snowfall for the area through 4 p.m. I just measured our snow outside the station in Rochester and we have 3.1" of snow. By midnight, everyone will be in the forecasted range for snowfall today. I just don't understand why people don't let the day go by before bashing the forecast. It can't verify until the forecast period ends, right?
Right...and again you guys nailed it!
ReplyDeleteSleet might keep the totals a little closer to the lower end of the Forecast in Northern Livingston County.. at least going by what has happened so far.
ReplyDeleteI can see how people might expect little or no snow this morning. Snow started later than expected and it looked like the precip shield was breaking up. This is the reason some people get paid to do this and others don't I guess.
well, we're now officially up and over 120" for the season. It's cool to be able to say how much snow Rochester got this year, but I would give up this current snow for 65 and sunny. Unfortunately, things don't look good for any lasting warmth for another two weeks or so. Ensembles ease up on the cold, but are hinting at it coming back again in early April. And, you don't even want to look at the end of the 12z GFS timeframe. Looks like an ice age for the east in early April. Not buying it, but still. C'mon, where's spring?
ReplyDeleteAs long as it is warm for opening day at Frontier field on April 9th.
ReplyDelete6" on my deck here in Macedon.
ReplyDeleteI think it's snowing harder right now than it has been all day. Suddenly 6+ inches seems a distinct possibility.
ReplyDelete4 3/4" snow on my back deck in Wayland. We had sleet mixing in this afternoon which changed back to flurries around 5pm...just light flurries since.
ReplyDelete123.9" for the season with the 4" we got today. We've picked up a little more snow since that official report, so we'll probably be around 125" by tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCan we get to 130" before all is said and done?
Scott,
ReplyDeleteComing from the Electric City, did you ever think you'd be a chief meteorologist for a metropolitan area that considers ONE HUNDRED inches of snow average? Not to mention those years where we exceed 100 inches by FEET.
Snow has come to end in Lyons. About 5 or six inches from today's storm in Lyons.
ReplyDeleteYou guys nailed it in the Rochester area, but missed badly in the southern tier. Both Scott and Brian had western steuben county in 1-4 inches on both their maps; and we've got close to 10 inches near hornell.
ReplyDeleteYou're absolutely right about the Southern Tier. I expected more sleet/mix there and that burst of snow early in the day put down a bunch in a short period of time.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Snowfan: Coming from Scranton 12 years ago, I was very nervous about forecasting in such a complex location. I was also excited because lake effect snow was one of my interests in college at Penn State. We get 2 to 3 times the snow as Scranton.
ReplyDeleteScott