NO BOUNCE TO SPRING SO FAR...
TEMPERATURES MONDAY 2PM AT ABOUT 5,000 FT 
Written By: Scott Hetsko The persistent upper air low over Eastern Canada will continue to funnel cold air across the Northeast through Monday. Temperatures will just barely make it over 30 degrees after starting out in the low to middle teens in the morning. The good news is that sunshine and dry air will rule the sky yet again tomorrow following a bright but cold weekend. By the middle of the week, a slightly more zonal flow will usher in some milder air. Highs by later in the week should reach the lower to middle 40s. A couple of storm systems will come close to Rochester. The first one on Wednesday will at most bring some flurries here but a period of light snow is possible early in the Southern Tier. On April Fool's Day (how appropriate) we will track a coastal low. The likely track will keep snow East of our area, stay tuned. 
At this time of year, i'm happy to hear that the storm later in the week should miss to the east. Let Albany sit under 10" of snow in April, while Rochester's bare ground soaks up the warm sunlight.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI was looking at today's NCEP ensemble means as well as the GFS and Euro long range. They look absolutely ridiculous in terms of their projection of cold air stacking up in a big way in Canada later next week and beyond. It looks more like an autumn forecast than spring given the degree of cold air that will build. They seem to being trying to suggest that some of this cold air will ooze into the lower 48 well into April. Is this somewhat alarming and / or unprecidented if it happens? I've followed these models for many years and can't remember such cold building to our north at this time of year.
Also, do you have any hunch, based on pattern recognition, etc, as to whether this pattern will be the norm this spring? I've heard that patterns like these can switch like a light switch halfway through spring. However, the CFS would suggest otherwise, showing cold anomalies almost all spring AND summer long.
It does to me look very interesting somewhere on the coast this weekend. Maybe not here but somewhere according to the models. Am I correct or way off base?
ReplyDeleteI'm not a weather expert, but I'm a firm believer in the theory that you need a big blockbuster storm at this time of year to end one season and start the next. Often times, a late spring storm will dump a foot of snow someplace and a week later have temps in the 60's and 70's and that's the end of the winter season. maybe we need this coastal storm on Friday (as predicted by some) to end winter and bring on a new season. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteRemember in like a lamb and out like a lion. Think we came in like a lamb. Who knows.
ReplyDeleteI'll have more tomorrow on the late week storm. The chances are low that it will be a huge snow maker for us but it will be for those perhaps in Southeast NY mountains and elevations West of the coast up to Maine. It will be fun to watch as it evolves into a late season Nor'Easter
ReplyDeleteScott
Not so sure this storm will not shift west as we go later in the week. Storms have shifted west after the initial early models. We will have to look at the data Wednesday. We all can agree this winter has been very difficult to predict.
ReplyDeleteNo more snow please.
ReplyDeleteYou will get your wish Weatherdan and I am with you. No more snow and we will not the weekend storm will be well east. Plus 40's and maybe 50 on Thursday.
ReplyDeleteDK what are you thougths about this weekend based on latest model information?
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it, but even if we miss this weekends storm, we are still going to have a few more chances for snow looking at the latest long range projections! The cold air continues to be stubborn and persistent as it has been all winter long. Scott, is there an end in sight?
ReplyDeleteLast night's 00z GFS has Rochester getting hit pretty hard with some sort of precip on Friday. I say "some sort" because temps don't look particularly cold, and given the time of year, I would think that it will be an elevation dependent snow, with mix at the lowest elevations. However, with the low clearly passing to our east, and if the precip falls hard enough, it will pull down cold air aloft (dynamic cooling),and could lead to all snow even at lower elevations. That's just my take. If I had to make a call, i'd say about 2 inches of a very heavy, gloppy wet snow, with snow mixing with rain and sleet during the afternoon hours.
ReplyDeleteDk-did u used to be a meteorologist? U seem to know your stuff about weather.
ReplyDeleteThis is my take on the current weather situation. All of us have wanted a big snow storm all season. I say let the snow fall this Friday. If it has to be so darn cold then we may as well get some crazy weather out of it. Spring will be here before we know it so I say embrace it my snow lovers.
So I am hoping that we get a turn in our favor for snow. Call me crazy....