RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Many indices we look at for severe thunderstorms are coming together for Thursday. A warm front will push through in the predawn hours which will ignite some elevated thunderstorms between 3am and 8am Thursday. Elevated storms fire usually on the cold side of a warm front which is where we'll be tomorrow morning.
Surface based storms are likely to develop ahead of a stalling cold front Thursday afternoon. Because there is so much shear present, especially directional, the threat for an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out in Western New York Thursday afternoon. Of course you can trust our team to let you know the moment severe weather begins. Temperatures will be all over the place tomorrow due to storms and front placement. It will likely reach the low to mid 80s Southeast and only in the 60s Northwest.
Will Rochester be in the 80's sector or the 60's sector?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWith elevated convection, I know that the great lakes typically have little to no impact on the storms strength, however I'm wondering about tomorrow PM's convection. Will lake Erie help to squash any severe potential across the Niagara Frontier? If so, what are the chances of that stabilizing impact reaching our portion of the Genesee Valley? I know if the winds are strong enough out of the WSW, they can funnel right up lake erie with great strength and stabilze the atmosphere all the way to Rochester and even beyond.
11:03 PM - classic roar of fighter jet heard once again. No, it is not thunder, I know the difference.
ReplyDeleteWhat is a supercell?
ReplyDeleteA supercell is basically a thunderstorm that is bigger and stronger than usual. It typically carries strong winds capable of damage, and sometimes can spawn tornados. It's basically a typical thunderstorm that we're used to around here....only on steroids, because it holds a ton of energy. As for the "cell" part of the terminology, if you look at them on radar, you might see why it's called that. Thunderstorms in the summer are convective....meaning they bubble up in isolated, individual areas, similar to how bubbles form at the bottom of pan of boiling hot water on the stove. Those individual bubbles are storms when in the atmosphere, and we call them thunderstorm "cells". For a comparison, think about a large snowstorm in the winter, and how it looks on radar. Notice how it is a large shield of precip that can sometimes cover entire states. Well, a single thunderstorm isn't larger than an entire state, but rather clusters of individual storm cells. That's why thunderstorms only last for 20 minutes or so, while a snowstorm can persist for many hours or even days. Hopefully that makes sense.
ReplyDeleteThanks- great explanation.
ReplyDelete