Summertime Drought In Rochester
After returning from a long week of vacation, I came home expecting to have to mow tall grass. Instead I found no reason to fire up the mower thanks to a dry summer! 2007 began well above average for rain and snowfall through April, since then a drought. Rochester is over 4" below normal for rainfall since the beginning of May. Long, sunny days tend to slurp up ground water quicker than on cloudy, humid days. Both the lack of rain and sunny days has caused plenty of problems for agriculture in our region. Much needed rain is in the forecast this week!
It seems to me though that pointing that out is a bit, shall we say, skewed. We 're are .60'' below average since the beginning of the month, which considering it is an average, isn't too bad. Obviously we are lower than usual in rainfall, but that's only because we had such a dry May. The extreme range of dry weather in that month kinda throws off the results of the averages because it is so extreme, don't ya think? I'm not saying that we're not below average in rainfall for the past three months. Anyone who can read that chart could tell you that. What I am saying is that the miniscule amount of rain received in May throws the whole "average" off, kinda taking away from the shock of how far we're below average.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm trying to point out is the cumulative affect of consecutive dry months. I agree that the July deficit is small but the fact remains that we're about 4 inches below average since the start of May. The good news is that the rest of July should be above average for rainfall.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
Wouldn't you say though that the importance of such a fact is, to say the least, deteriorated since it's based upon stats from months ago? I guess the point you're making is that the weather we had in May (in this case, a lack of rain) still has some relevance in the weather we had today? It's applicable for the time being, seeing as we are "below average", but what if it rained quite a bit for a few days? Suddenly, we're plenty saturated and the idea of being below average seems foolish. But if we were to look back to May at that point, we would still be below average, technically. This article indicates to me that what's important is the general lack of rain over the past few months, but as soon as we get the rain you're predicting, that dryness since May becomes meaningless. Which, as I see it, kinda defeats the point of any of these averages, except perhaps the ones based upon the very recent past.
ReplyDeleteIt's based not only just months ago but EVERY month until July. Of course the weather over the past few months has a direct impact on conditions now. Departure from averages, whether above or below, are important for understanding where we are and what we need to get back to where we ought to be.
ReplyDelete