A landfalling hurricane for Florida?

Written by: Chris Hoyt

Tropical storm Fay is currently located between Haiti and Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. It is moving to the due West and is expected to turn northward. The turn to the north across Cuba and then possibly towards Florida is in due part to a ridge to the north of the storm. With a ridge in place to the north you have clockwise flow of winds pushing the storm westward. As the ridge continues to shift off to the east and weaken, tropical storm Fay will then be shifted off to the north by more southerly winds directing the storm. To the degree and timing in the northerly turn is all too important to the impact Fay will have on Florida.

In addition, Tropical storm Fay is predicted to strengthen over the coming days. The three basic necessities for further strengthening and hurricane development are all in place.

1) Warm surface water (Caribbean Sea Temp- mid 80's)
2) Area of disturbed weather (Tropical wave now tropical storm)
3) Light winds high in the atmosphere (Winds are 15-25 knots)

However, when Tropical storm Fay crosses Cuba, timing is critical. If the storm sits overhead it will weaken due to loss of moisture and warm surface water. If it is crosses quickly, there lies the possibility of now Tropical storm Fay then turning into Hurricane Fay. A hurricane of which then would hit Florida and affect family, friends and vacations to Florida over the coming week

For the most up to date information and graphics on Fay click here.