BEST SHOT AT SNOW IS WEDNESDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
I know the majority of you reading this blog routinely like and desire snow. The map above is meant to show where the greatest chance is for accumulating snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. Let me tell you a few reasons why I selected this area for snow potential. I see a vigorous short wave (upper low) diving across the region early Wednesday morning. This wave will likely bring a brief burst of snow the area (1-2"). Following this wave, a well aligned flow of WNW winds COULD connect with Georgian Bay for awhile. This could extend lake snows into the BLUE shaded areas Wednesday afternoon and evening before an inverison squashes most of the lake snows early Thursday.
Brian's right, while we don't expect large amounts of snow, there is a decent shot that the WHITE area gets 2-4" while a few areas in the BLUE could see over 6" of fluff. No matter how much falls and where, driving could get tricky North of the thruway Wednesday into early Thursday.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteDo you anticipate headlines will be issued by the NWS for tomorrow evening thru Wednesday for Monroe county? Perhaps a Lake Effect Snow Advisory?
It looks like most of the Rochester Metro is in the blue. Are you saying that there is an outside shot that somewhere (perhaps even Rochester metro) could see over a half a foot of snow?
ReplyDeleteNorthside towns including perhaps downtown may see that much but again 6" may be the exception not the rule in the blue area as well. It really all depends on that Georgian Bay fetch if it occurs at all.
ReplyDeleteI hear ya. That good ole Georgian Bay connection isn't always reliable. But it will be nice to see even a little snow cover come back around here, especially now that we know whatever falls in the next couple days will surely not melt for awhile. Plus, it would be nice to tip the scales above Buffalo in the snow derby after this event. They've had too much of the snow fun so far this year.
ReplyDeleteQuestion for you, Scott.
ReplyDeleteDo the communities in Canada that live just downwind of Georgian Bay get the same type of intense, single band LES that Buffalo gets when the winds line up the entire fetch?
That's a great question and the answer is yes. Georgian Bay is a large NW to SE oriented body of water which produces large single band snow with NW winds there. NW winds most times produce multiple lake bands here.
ReplyDeleteBoring Lake effect for Rochester. ^ inxhes of flake fluff that compacts to 1 inch and melts after 1 day. Where are the storms now that we have cold air?????????????????????
ReplyDeleteThanks, Scott. Now if only Georgian Bay continued to extend southeast as one really long strip of water until it connected to Lake Ontario. What incredible single band snows would bury Rochester every year! We'd easily receive as much snow as the Tug Hill. Anyway, those are just random things that a weather geek like myself thinks about.
ReplyDeleteperfect! im right on the edge of white/blue.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone or Scott please tell me the exact times the forecast is on the news, if there are set times. I like to watch 8, 9 and 10, but my fingers get tired switching back and forth non stop.
Thanks.
Hey, I'll just be happy to see the ground covered with snow, not half bare naked grass like we're seeing right now, esp. with all this rain. Let's have it snow, stick, and let's start building it up! We need a strong coastal hugger to give us a nice synoptic dump. But alas, all the good storms will likely go east of us with the AO and NAO so negative right now. Oh well, at least it will be cold with snow showers.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott or Brian,
ReplyDeleteWhat does the term "dumbelling" mean in meteorology? I've been hearing / reading this term a lot in the last few days.