LAKE EFFECT THIS WEEK, HOW MUCH WILL WE GET?
Written by: Brian Neudorff
With another blast of arctic air expected for the middle of the week, how much lake effect should we expect? Unlike last weeks event that featured winds west and southwest off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this weeks winds will feature more west-northwest to northwesterly flow off of both lakes.
If you read the post on AccuWeather.com yesterday and today as one commenter mentioned in the previous post you would surely think we were in for a big lake effect snow event:
A major outbreak of lake-effect snow will unfold Tuesday to Thursday as frigid arctic air cuts southeastward out of Canada and over the Great Lakes.To be honest, I think this is a little over done if not a lot, at least for our area across western New York. Is it possible some places in Western New York get a foot or more of snow from Wednesday into Thursday? It's possible but not as widespread as the above post makes it sound. Here are Scott's first impressions of this weeks lake effect event he posted in response to a comment left on Sunday's blog post:
The highest snowfall by Thursday will likely reach 1-2 feet in the favored snow belts along eastern and southern shores of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, western New York and Ontario, Canada.
The more northerly winds crossing the still-open lakes will direct heaviest snow farther south than those of last week. Thus, northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania will have a share in the heaviest snow, as will far-northwest Indiana and areas of western New York southeast of Lake Ontario. The cities of Cleveland, South Bend, Ind., Erie Pa., Rochester, N.Y. and Syracuse, N.Y. will likely get in on the action.
Strong wind, heavy snow and blowing snow will make for very tough travel along the direct path of heaviest snow bands. At their worst, heaviest snow squalls could shut local stretches of highway. Highway I-90 will cross the longest stretch of lake-effect snow with areas of I-75, I-80 and I-94 also affected.
"Certainly nothing like last week. High pressure with associated dry air as well as anticyclonic flow will limit snow for Wayne County this week. NW flow = multiple bands off of Lake Ontario. It will be quite cold here from Tuesday night right on through next weekend as it looks now."The National Weather Service in Buffalo seems to be thinking along the same lines as us for this week's snow by stating in their forecast discussion: "WHILE IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO PROJECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR EVENT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY AND THE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES TOO SHORT TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS."
It is still to early, but for those who don't know advisory levels are listed as snowfall between 4 and 7 inches in a 12 hour period.
This is typical for Rochester Lake effect. We finally get a NW wind and the airmass will be too dry. It looks like we will get into a cold period, but where are the storms?
ReplyDeleteBut you know what...I will take a solid 4-7 inches around here because it's going to say cold and keep our snowpack. By the way, I say that article on accuweather. My first impression is that it's way over the top too. But again, even half of that 1-2 feet forecasted would make me happy at this point.
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