EVERYONE GETS SOME SNOW ON FRIDAY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
A quick moving low diving out of the Dakota's this evening will spread light snow into Western New York late Thursday night and most of Friday. While amounts won't be impressive, I expect 2-5" for the area by Friday evening. As the air grows colder and moisture lingers behind the system, expect a bit more snowfall North of I-90 Friday into Saturday. Lake effect amounts are always wide ranging so at this time I'll just say that the most snow should again hit Orleans, Northern Monroe and Wayne counties.
Bitter cold air over the weekend but signs continue to point to strong high pressure ridging Eastward. Conditions will not be the same they were last weekend thus the lake effect machine will not be as effective in producing snow.
Looks like the snow to water ratios won't be as impressive as the last event, but do you think we'll get enough LES accumulation (not including the snow we get from the synoptic event) in the wake of the low to once again prompt advisories or even warnings for Monroe County?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteSince yesterday, you and pretty much all of the other mets on the other channels have really toned down their excitement for the Thursday night - Saturday time frame. What happened to the deformation zone that was supposed to make Friday a really nasty day, followed by significant LES in its wake? Now seems like everybody is playing it down big time, with barely even advisory worthy snows. What happened?
So typical for synoptic events this winter....a lot of promise at first, but then slowly backing off and fizzle out......when will our luck change?
ReplyDeleteWhat happenned is that the forecast is always evolving and the picture becomes clearer as you get closer to the event. The deformation zone will be a litle further South of us but given the amount of Arctic air pours South, I still expect several inches of snow for Rochester Friday into Saturday.
ReplyDeleteHi Scott. You're the only forecaster I watch. I have a question. I'm driving to Oswego county on Saturday morning. Will conditions be bad?
ReplyDeleteWe should all be used to it by now. If it was not for the lake we would not get any snow at all.
ReplyDeleteCan we drain the lake??
ReplyDeleteWeather along Route 104 I think will be tricky at times going out toward Oswego. Very cold air will be crossing the lake at that time so streamers of lake snows are likely during that time. Take it slow and you'll be fine.
ReplyDeleteThe updated 0z NAM is continuing its southward trend of the heaviest snow. Now it barely even places any of the synoptic stuff north to our area. I hope other models aren't showing the same thing, or this will be a non-event altogether, aside from any LES thereafter.
ReplyDeletegrrr, another one misses us. Are you sure there isn't a greenland block the size of western new york that's sitting over us this winter? We might need to look into that. anyhoo, Scott, I live up near the lake in Greece, do you think we'll get a lot of lake effect snow after this cold front goes by? maybe another foot by the end of the weekend????
ReplyDelete