SNOW, BUT NOT A LOT FRIDAY
Written by: Brian Neudorff
That quick moving storm that Scott mentioned in his post yesterday is now moving out of the Midwest and will be moving through the Ohio Valley later on this afternoon and evening. As we continue to fine tune this forecast, the consensus is this storm slides to our south. Most of the large scale snow will fall to our south along the New York/ Pennsylvania boarder. Some places in the far southern counties, especially in the far western corner of the state could see 4 maybe 8 inches in some of the higher elevations. The above map is showing around 3 to 6 around the Dansville area. I would say that will be more like 3 to 4 there than 6. As you go farther north into Rochester the amounts drop off. I think more like 1 to 3 inches are possible with the least amount of snow falling closest to the lake. Please keep in mind this is my though on what will happen with the snow starting early Thursday morning into Friday afternoon and early evening. This is not a forecast for lake effect that will start Friday night into Saturday.
Winds will be out of the northwest Friday evening into Saturday morning. I'd expect the National Weather Service to issue LE Advisories for the the counties closest to the lake shore. Since this event will lack many of the conditions we saw last weekend I don't expect as much snow as we saw over New Years weekend.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteThe GFS and NAM for the new 12z run both shift the leading edge a bit further north. Also, check out the 12z WRF. Looks like a snowier day than 1-3 in Rochester to me. I hope we see the deformation zone shift a little further north than expected.
is this one of those storms that track could sill change, or is it pretty much a lock?
ReplyDeleteTrack can always change, but all indications still show that most of the snow stays south of the Rochester Metro area tomorrow and I feel confident with my current forecast. We will still squeak out a couple of inches and then see the lake effect bands set up Friday night and Saturday.
ReplyDeleteGeneva just can't win. If its not too far north, its too far south.
ReplyDeleteDarn, missed another one. :)
ReplyDelete