AS WE GET CLOSER, SIGNIFICANT SNOW MORE LIKELY
Written By: Scott Hetsko
Let me first say that I'm pleased and impressed with all the "chatter" about the upcoming snowstorm to hit Western New York beginning in earnest on Thursday. As is the case with all major Winter storms, forecasting exactly how much snow is going to fall proves quite a challenge so we must revisit history (past storms). I've been doing a lot this the past 48 hours and I'm reminded of the February 1978 storm the most. The difference here is that the snow will be more of a wet snow so blowing and drifting may be less of a factor.
The placement of the storm as the pressure lowers early Friday is key to how heavy the snow will fall in Western New York. No doubt the heaviest snow/wind from this storm will be from Thursday evening into early Friday afternoon. There will be lingering periods of snow wrapping around the storm into the weekend but 75% of the snow will fall in an 18 hour period from 7pm Thursday through 1pm Friday.
My numbers are on the map above through Friday evening with a few more inches possible into the weekend. No doubt travel will become very difficult with snow and blowing snow. NO HYPE, JUST WHAT I'M EXPECTING.
Thanks Scott. Sounds like a pretty serious storm. Is it possible some areas see the 24 inch mark?
ReplyDeletei want to know how come we dont have no watches or warnings by the NWS yet? the NWS has watches for syracuse for the same storm
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteThe NWS is basically saying they don't agree with the GFS or NAM, and favor the more easterly path, even stating that it will be in Southern New England around Cape Cod. We almost never get storms when the low is way out there. Why is there such differing ideas?
Kevin Williams is saying at least one foot with 50 mph winds
ReplyDeleteBecause forecasting a major winter storm ain't easy!!! Especially one as complex at this one, 72 hours out! I don't blame the NWS for waiting to issue watches, what's the hurry?
ReplyDeleteI agree with Scott, no sense in causing panic at Wegmans!!
ReplyDeleteWell Kevin's forecast is right on target with Scott's basically. But I don't think the News 8 Weather Team feels comfortable with posters comparing their forecasts with their competitors. Let's try to keep the topic to Scott's Forecast.
ReplyDeleteRight on Scott!! No rush. We know it going to come just not how much it is going to be. Being the mid west transplant. They would hype a storm in St. Louis because the models would indicate that we were going to get clobbered and wind up with flurries!!! Of course the grociers loved the hype couldn't find a gallon of milk or loaf of bread anywhere!!.. They forcast 30 % chance of fluries we get 12-18" which shut the town down Go figure!!
ReplyDeleteWaitin to have a good noreaster to watch!! Want to play with the new snow blower.
George in Brighton
I watched your 5:00 weather segement and your making me nervous Hetsko. Are you backing off of what you may have earlier thought of this possible "blizzard" in the making? Are you waiting on more model info to be more confident?
ReplyDeleteI've been a pessimiste about this storm since it first showed up, but I'm getting a gut feeling that it's going to happen for Rochester and Scott's numbers may be conservative.
ReplyDeleteScott, do your numbers take lake enhancement into account? Won't the winds be lining up perfectly to boost the numbers north of the thruway?
Scott -- Thanks for this blog; it's the only definitive prediction about the week that I can find on the web. And, yes, for those with loved ones who have to travel back to Rochester, advanced, accurate info on these weather events is very important....my husband will drive back a day earlier because of this, just to be safe, and be with us.
ReplyDeletebeen watching the models as each run comes out and see that the nam and gfs differ a bit. have noticed that the nam has been off on the storms the past few weeks. im liking the gfs more because of the track being more west than the nam, but dont want to be bias. what is your thinking scott? possibility of some good lake enhancement as well?
ReplyDeleteLake enhancement won't be much of an issue. I'd like to see 850 temps 3 to 5 degrees C colder. I want to wait and see what 6z and 12z runs show collectively tomorrow. I've been amazed by the consistency of the GFS runs since last week. It would be difficult for that quality model to be this wrong only 48 hours out.
ReplyDeletelooking on accuweather forums the Nam's slight shift east have everyone going crazy for a big snowstorm in NYC which i cant see how that could happen anyways unless it took a track right up the coast to put it on the colder side. have to see how the gfs run looks in a half hour. if the runs stay consistent are you still confident in the 12-20 with possibly more? im over in webster
ReplyDeletealso what site are you using for the 850 temps?
ReplyDeleteweather.cod.edu/forecast
ReplyDeleteOne of my favorite model sites
thats what im on, looks like -4 c...am i looking at the right numbers? i have never looked at the 850 temps
ReplyDeleteScott, in your opinion should we be in "emergency preparation" mode. What items should I have to ensure my family is prepared for this storm? Thank You
ReplyDeleteBurke Family
0z gfs looks east!!!! :(
ReplyDeleteDude what are you talking about? 0z GFS looks just as it did in the previous runs...very favorble for a big snow here.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI noticed that you took off the snowfall totals on the snowfall map that you showed on the 10 o clock broadcast. And you mentioned something about maybe 5,6 or 7 inches. Has new data come in that looks less impressive for big snow? It seems that you're down playing the storm a bit now.
every model run for the 0z is right on line for a major storm in WNY, except the canadian and GEM which still show 4-8 inches. As for the LES enhancement, Scott is on the money. For serious lake effect we need the 850 temps to be around -10c, not -4 or -6C. But we will wait to see the final round of numbers. This storm seems rather analogous to the storm in april 2007. But that storm was a big BUST due to sleet and rain. Nothing indicates that as of yet. But I don't like to see rochester in the 1.5 inch bulls eye- as it is- this far out. Things WILL change. DAVE from Irondequoit
ReplyDeleteJust trying to be cautious until Wednesday afternoon. There's alot going on with this system, not a slam dunk big snow for us. I'll feel better looking at 12Z runs to pin down the numbers. I wouldn't go into "emergency" mode with this storm just yet.
ReplyDeleteThe talk out of NYC and Boston NWS has me concerned. They are saying that the GFS and NAM are much too far west. This will take the heavy snow east of us if that happens.
ReplyDeleteI knew it......too good to be true for Rochester.....major bust in the making. Oh well, there's always next year.....
ReplyDeleteYou Knew it? How? Curious how you figure this is a major bust in the making? I appreciate your comment now want to understand your thinking?
ReplyDeleteHey Brian, The NWS out of Buffalo is saying that the heavy snow will be over Western, Ny, but everyone seems to be down playing this storm now and its impact.
ReplyDeleteI haven't read other area offices, I am curious who "Everyone" you mention are. I have seen very little change in the forecast models and placement of the low Friday morning.
ReplyDeleteMy gut tells me we will get significant snow, looking over possible amounts on BUFKIT with the NAM & GFS over the last 24 hrs have been consistent with 10 to 17 inches of snow by Friday evening.
Now in the whole scheme of things that may not sound like a lot but compared to the storms that have missed us it will be the biggest storm we've seen all season.
AS we have been saying and all have been looking at LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION is CRUCIAL in what we see around here. I have been impressed with where both the NAM & GFS have been placing this storm at 6Z Friday morning (2am Friday EST)
Personally I hope we aren't underestimating this storm and being too conservative. As Scott has said, we will no more come later tonight. but I still think amounts of 10 to possibly 18 are likely and some places could even get into the 20+ we will know more later today.
I guess it is better to be conservative than not.
ReplyDeleteI have been watching all the news channels this AM and it seems that everyone is being conservative in the way they are talking about the storm. It is like they are not overlly impressed with it even though it will be a 975 MB low at its peak. Was not the blizzard of 93 a 977 mb low?
What would you have me and the weather team say? WATCH OUT ROCHESTER! A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BLITZ ROCHESTER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DON'T LEAVE THE HOUSE!!!! Job one is to be responsible, even if we get this storms worst we'll be fine by Saturday. 12-20" still looks likely depending on exact track. Nothing has changed.
ReplyDeleteWow, all of the cynical folks have come out of the wood works this morning. A bust? Everybody is down playing it? Guys, a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect, with the, up until now, reserved National Weather Service calling for in excess of a foot! I don't know where you're getting this idea that we're not going to get hit. The storm is now UNDER 48 hours away, and all of the models remain very bullish on a big one for WNY. I agree with Brian that there may be a risk of underestimating this storm. But at this juncture, all you can do is be cautious and make revisions and confidence increases. But please folks, do your reading or something before impulsively posting comments that are ill informed and inaccurate.
ReplyDeleteScott -- first off let me say "you are the man." You may want to consider revising your recent post. It reads "....the storm is it's pressure..." Change the "is it's" to "as its" It's = it is.
ReplyDeleteYOUR STILL THE MAN (GET IT?)
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWill this be a very wet snow?
Thanks
I have spent about a week paying close attention to this storm, and about 2-3 days monitoring it like waiting for a pot of water to boil. It is my own opinion (and hope as well) that Stormwatch8 weather team is being conservative at this time, and for good reason. This is not a gut opinion, but one generated by researching this storm. I can't understand the cynical folks if they are playing reversy psychology, but then please state that. This is not the place to come on and criticize anyway. That is just plan rude and does nothign to support a construction blog. If you wish to read more on the this storm and enjoy blogging, i encourage you to follow the (now 36) pages of the blog dedicated entirely to these two events.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=225736
StormWatch8 Weather Team does a great job.
Holy typos by my last post! Sorry about that.
ReplyDeletechange "can't" to "can"
plan rude = plain rude
nothign = nothing
construction = constructive
to all the spelling and grammar psychos - it is a weather blog - not an English Lit term paper
ReplyDeleteSincerely, Henry Roget, Mr. Webster, and John Steinbeck
How is Ch13 saying 2-5" and ch8 is 12-20??
ReplyDeleteI know we're not supposed to compare forecasts, but thats quite a difference. Ch9 is saying 4-8" as well.
Doing good mets!
Dear Roget, Webster, and Steinbeck,
ReplyDeleteIf you are in the communication business, we think it is a fair expectation that words would be used correctly. We're not psychos, we just thought we'd look out for our weather hero. We are sure Scott won't mind the slight correction.
Warmest Regards.
I try to make it a rule not to comment on other stations forecast but you need to look at their time frame for when they expect 2-5" and when we expect 12-20". Our totals are for when the storm starts Thursday afternoon until Friday Evening. -Brian
ReplyDeleteAs far as Spelling, I can't speak for Scott but I can for myself. I am a self proclaimed "Poor Speller" I was blessed with math and science skills the language area has always been a challenge. I had a spelling error in my Title Yesterday morning, and someone was gracious enough to point it out and I fixed it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, 90% of my spelling errors are due to typos and slow fingers than actual poor spelling. If it weren't for spell check and dictionary.com I would be TOTALLY lost. -Brian
I'm hoping for a big storm just so my kids might get a snow day of sledding and hot chocolate. If not, we'll hope for one next year.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the hard work in keeping us informed.
YEAH BABY - NO SCHOOL FRIDAY!! WHOO WHOO!!! SCOTT I LOVE YOU!!!!
ReplyDeleteFor the record, the News 8 Weather Team has not declared any schools to be closed for tomorrow. We are not in the business of closing or canceling schools. Tune into News 8 at Sunrise Friday morning to see if any schools cancellations or delays.
ReplyDeleteNO SCHOOL! NO SCHOOL! NO SCHOOL! YES!!!!
ReplyDeletelol, Brian your always the business man. Don't you remember being excited about a possible snow day? Nobody is saying that you guys have said there will be a snow day. Our school is focused on their state aid money not our children's safety. I decide if my kids have a snow day or not. Looking forward to watching the kids have fun in the snow while I'm toasty warm making the hot chocolate. :)
ReplyDelete