OK, WE HAVE OUR WINTER STORM WATCH
Written by: Brian Neudorff
I can speak for the rest of the News 8 Weather Team that this blog has made forecasting this system fun. It is great to see all of you wanting to be involved and sharing your ideas. The above graphic is where the HPC (The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) is forecasting this storm to go over between now and Friday evening. (The low that is over Cape Cod is the current storm that's there today) It is also shows this storm getting caught up and stalling with the upper level low and being brought west into northeastern PA and southern NY. You can click the above graphic to get more products from the HPC as they also forecast snow and potential amounts with this upcoming system.
As of this morning our forecast and thinking hasn't changed. If there is one thing about this system that we have seen going all the way back to the end of last week, it has been consistency especially with the GFS model.
We haven't shied away from our original thinking and as we get closer our idea of 12 to 20 seems very realistic. Now to say who will get the most is still not know, but not everyone will get 20 but double digit amounts look good. Too many variables as this storm comes together over the next 24 to 48 hours.
It looks like Thursday night and into early Friday morning is when this storm gets really cranked up. Temperatures will be close to the upper 20s so although we could potentially have wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph the snow may be wet and heavy enough not to blow and drift around as the coldest of the air goes south of us.
What could hurt these amounts? I only bring this up that despite what you may see in the models there are always a couple of things you have to keep in mind that can play spoiler for the big snow. As this storm wraps in Atlantic moisture and brings in warmer air aloft some areas especially east and north of Rochester and 81 sees a period of sleet and rain mixing in. With a storm like this there will be dry air getting wrapped in as well. If there is a significant area of dry air that gets wrapped up in this storm and brought over Western New York that could also limit the amount of snow we see.
Bottom line, 12 to 20 inches isn't huge when you compare it to other storms and even lake effect events we've seen around here, hey it's Western New York we're hardy people, but it will be the biggest storm we've seen around here in some time. Looking ahead, if you are planning on traveling Thursday night and Friday morning you may want to rethink your timing and plan accordingly as travel will be very difficult and hazardous over that time period.
Hello Brian.....I have been reading yours and the news teams blog all week keeping track of this storm. I have also read what the team at accuweather.com has to say about tis storm and the potential damage it could bring and they are calling it a snow hurricaine that will bring winds up to 50 plus miles an hour along with downed trees and lots of power outages....what is your thoughts on thier forecast for this storm?
ReplyDeleteYes Brian, what are your thoughts on what accuweather.com is saying? Power outages, etc.
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteDo you think that the snow could mix with rain / sleet even in the Rochester metro, or do you think we're far enough away from that to stay as all snow through the duration?
I just wanted to post this comment to say I have read all the comments here. I have a meeting I have to go to but once I get back I will respond to both the AccuWeather Questions and now to the rain/sleet one here in Rochester. We see this event for Western New York as all snow, I think it could mix in northern New York and maybe parts of Central New York for a time but for us here I am sticking with us getting all snow. -Brian
ReplyDeleteBrian-
ReplyDeleteJust thinking about my kids going to and from school Thursday/Friday. It might be too early to tell, but do you see this as canceling anything tomorrow or Friday?
I'm a little perplexed as to how the same data can be interpreted so differently from one weather outlet to another. Same computer models, same information, but yet one sees it as a paralyzing blizzard with power outages and down tree limbs, calling it one we won't see like this in our lifetime. Yet others see it as a foot or foot and a half of snow over a 3 day period. I'm confused.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the last poster. One thing holds true, in three days, we will know what we got :) Wax the sleds, lay out the best snow man plans you have, get a blue print for the best igloo, and get out the hot coco. Time to play :)
ReplyDeleteAgree with 2nd to last poster, I have everyone telling me now 'too bad this storm busted, its out in the ocean'
ReplyDeleteor
'looks like we're getting just rain, so much for the storm'
Im going to punch the next person in the face that says the storms missing us. Seems like they're getting their information from all the other stations.
Im sticking with you Scott!!
Henry's wearing his Big Daddy hat and it's for us for once!!!
ReplyDeleteInteresting: I just watched the weather channel and they have all the heavy snow in Philadelphia and NJ with 10-15 inches. They have 5-8 over us. WHat models are they looking at?
ReplyDeleteThis will definately not be a storm to remember or a blizzard. Just a normal average snowfall for this area. Nothing we cannot handle. I think we were all hoping for the BIG BIG ONE.
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 still states 6-12 with a huge lull on Friday and then maybe a few more inches Friday night into saturday. They say it will not be a blizzard or an epic storm.
ReplyDeleteI predict this will be a big snowstorm for all of us, but nothing really out of the ordinary. No paralyzing blizzard here, that's for sure!
ReplyDeleteOne interesting thing out of the Buf NWS...
They mentioned a frontal boundary out across Eastern Ontario which may interact with the SLP to enhance snowfall somewhere on a mesoscale level. Maybe that could happen over us?
I love all these predictions. Nobody will know for sure until it happens, or if it happens at all. The weather changes all the time, and with all of today's technology, forcasting is still not 100%.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I believe will happen.
1. The low develops stronger off the coast of NJ sometime after midnight.
2. It moves NE toward Capecod sometime Thursday, were it bombs out and stalls because of the Greenland block.
3. East of Rochester sees the heaviest snow amounts Thursday night into midday Friday.
4. The Rochester area will get the most snow Friday night into late Saturday, because of the backlash of the low.
After this is all said and done, things will start to clear up, and around the second week of March,it will be sunny with temps in the 50's.
This will be fun to see if this plays out.
Have a nice day everyone :)
3.
Let's face it, while I want to believe in the snow accums posted by Scott yesterday, I think it will be hard to get past 10 inches anywhere around Rochester with the heaviest east of us due to the eastward trend of the SLP and my feeling that the upper low will not capture the surface low in time. So, here we go.....heaviest east of us again. How many times has this been true this winter....heaviest east of us......heaviest east of us.....heaviest east of us.....like a broken record.....
ReplyDeleteSnow will be pretty, but not a big deal. Moderate snowstorm at best. Wouldn't be surprised if the winter storm watch is cancelled and change to only a winter weather advisory for our area with winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings just east of us........again.........as usual........just like always........never fails.........
Oh well, maybe next year......sigh........
I know it's difficult to predict. What is your gutt feeling on this one. Should I take a vacation day on Friday? Should I stock up on non-perishables and buy candles?
ReplyDelete1)NO ONE at News 8 has said this is going to be a Blizzard, nor do we think it will.
ReplyDelete2)I also mention in the last paragraph that this isn't the "BIG ONE". It's the biggest storm we've seen in some time, possibly in 2 winters.
To the last Anonymous, it will move west-northwest for a period because of the location of the upper level 500 mb low pulling it back some. All models show this small deviation and stall Thursday night into Friday morning and has been doing so consistently
The bulk of our snow will occur Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Then as the storm weakens and moves east the snow will lessen probably considerably during the day Friday.
I also stated all of the things that could hinder and hurt snow amounts from more warmer air being drawn in by the storm to even drier air getting into the storm sooner.
Finally to answer those who asked why AccuWeather uses the phrases, "Monster Storm" "Paralyzing Blizzard" It gets attention, drives people to their site. Creates buzz.
Our focus is here in Western New York no where else. There focus is for the big cities, and their clients who subscribe to their forecasts.
brian,
ReplyDeleteI'm starting get a little more convinced that rain and sleet will mix in further west and sooner than expected, and that will bring down totals considerably. Do have any information to argue against this concern?
hey,
ReplyDeletebeen watching this storm for a few days now and the gfs model has been very consistent with areas from buffalo rochester, to syracuse getting what you have originally forcasted (12-20) do you see any reason to why thouse numbers should be changed as of now?
There is only one thing certain about this storm, and that is no matter how much we get, it won't be enough for most people on this blog.
ReplyDeleteStep back and put it in perspective folks, after a very boring winter we will at least be getting a sizeable synoptic snow. No, it won't be "epic" but it will feel pretty big compared to what we have seen.
Every storm can't be the big one, if they all were we'd get sick of them pretty quick. They're fun because they are rare. In most cases, the week leading up to the event is usually more fun than the event itself.
We'll get our next "epic" storm eventually. 1 year from now? 5 years? 10 years? Who knows. But we’ll enjoy it, then sit back and enjoy the chase again.
To the last poster. You are right. No matter what we get it will not be enough. Most of us want the BIG ONE, the paralyzing Blizzard that is the talk of the town and nation. A 6-12 inch snowfall is no big deal for us. 20-30 inches is a big deal, an ice storm is a big deal. This will just be an ordinary snow event, but the biggest in several years.
ReplyDeleteMight not even be the biggest in several years if it quickly mixes with and changes to rain!
ReplyDeleteIt's true that most of us like the build up to the storms as much as the storms themselves. I won't be happy until I can relive the Blizzard of 66. That was epic. 77 was pretty goood, too.
ReplyDeleteOne poster quoted "We'll get our next "epic" storm eventually. 1 year from now? 5 years? 10 years? Who knows. But we’ll enjoy it, then sit back and enjoy the chase again." It may be December 21, 2012. That's the end of the Mayan Calendar and possibly us. Just joking. I think this storm will be a pain to shovel or snow blow. Being heavy and wet. I think we will get less than 12 inches in Henrietta. We usually get less than anyone else. Please all, use caution and take your time when shoveling. We don't want this little storm to be your last!
ReplyDeleteWho is calling for rain in the forecast? I see the 850 mb temps and above to stay below freezing. Is some sleet possible yes but last time I checked there wasn't a call for rain.
ReplyDeleteNow your forecast, Brian. You guys have been closests to what the NWS has. I saw on a microcast model a bunch of mixed precip and even plain rain settle south from lake Ontario tomorrow. But after reading the NWS's upgraded WINTER STORM WARNING, I no longer have any fears. Looks like a PURELY SNOW EVENT. Woo-Hoo!
ReplyDeleteNow = Not
ReplyDeleteSorry, my fingers are too chubby for this keyboard lol
Let's see if the snowfall numbers change with Scott's latest blog entry up soon.
ReplyDeletei realy think all you wether people need to re-think your jobs and or skill on the wether.we have not got the snow like you said.you did say that at this time in the night we would have had a lot more snow then we have now.you guys are not even close to getting it right.
ReplyDeleteim pist i cancle all my appoitment because u said it was going to real bad out side todat and it was'nt.there was no heavy snow at all today like you said.
ReplyDeleteyou guys all ways say we will get a dusting to 1",2" or 3" of snow.what is going to be.
ReplyDelete